Friday, April 15, 2011

THE GRIFT update II BABOOM!!

Short term target of 42 on silver achieved and the 1520 in gold is very close. We could easily get an overshoot in silver, but why fight the greatest casino in history. After all, they did create the greatest ponzi economy the world has ever witnessed. Today they are smiling with satisfaction as their casino operates smoothly like the digitalized marvel that it is. Unfortunately underneath the calm surface lurks some very nasty icebergs just waiting to put some holes in the casino participants.

Any organized ponzi requires a mark. The ability to get the mark to follow the ponzi requires confidence in the ponzi to be established......hence the BIG CON. Now where most marks fall prey are to their own weaknesses. Certainly placing too much trust in the Confidence man is a weakness, but what helps the most is when the CONfidence man finds a weakness like vanity or greed or naivette to manipulate. I personally find the greed to be the human trait that is most effective for the con. Not only is this trait one that a good grift loves to utilize, but one in which I have NO sympathy for the victim that succumbs to their own greed. A good trader uses greed to their advantage frequently. Some traders can ride a momentum trade using greed to extreme heights. When the runs are over, they know just when to exit. I am NOT that trader nor do I claim to be.

We have many human traits which we have to fight. These traits are used to separate us from our money. I fight fear in the great con. Fear is a powerful motivator for a good con and is used quite effectively in the market to shake you out of a trade. It happens with virtually every stock you play. It's particularly used in the precious metal trade. This game has been going on for many centuries and the grift works over and over. Our vanity, our greed, our fear, our naivette are all part of this game we try to participate in. Discipline and your ability to recognize and control these weaknesses in all of us is what will help you make decisions that ultimately will determine whether a fool and his money are soon to part.

This market is in awash with liquidity. QE2 should continue until June. Will the market crash before QE 2 expires? NO...not a crash but a nice pullback can occur and a nice trading opportunity may arise. There is no way I can predict that and I do not intend to try. Certainly there are probablities to consider. The dollar needs to find some footing soon. That should provide another buying opportunity for commods and equities. If you've made some nice profits just remember there is no shame in taking profits. There will be more buying opportunities. Some will be intraday trading situations and eventually some more clear swing trades. Biotechs still have some run but its a stock to stock pick. Remember.....PMs are the headlines that the the Central Bankers do not want to see running so they will knock this trade every chance they get. So you will have more entries that arise on those knockdowns. gl

update I...speaking of cons....

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-heres-setup-con-decade

update II....this should make some Monday convulsions..

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jan-hatzius-friday-night-bomb-we-are-downgrading-our-real-gdp-growth-estimate-1%C2%BE-2%C2%BD?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

Who is Ellen Aim ???? and Why does Michael Pare leave her??? WTF ....BTW best ending to a schmaltzy eighties flick.......EVER

44 comments:

  1. Keep an eye on POZN and AEN today...
    Patent issue on Pozn drug looks favorable for it..
    AEN released data on zinc MS case studies and going to start production from what I perused

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  2. ZH reporting on possible Greek restructuring this am. I agree with your long-term view of EUO (euro down, EUO up), but wonder about 'decay' in a 2X (inverse)leveraged fund. How much do expect to lose to decay over 3 months holding period?

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  3. shorts came in and gave a whooping to AEN...

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  4. already took the morning trade on POZN...my time horizon was not long on that one....ANIK running...and yeh EUO is a double ETF...yikes...but I guess I will still take a run at it...

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/263695-an-opportunity-to-short-the-euro?source=yahoo

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  5. just cashed out OPXA....that makes up for AEN Beatdown

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  6. KLI nice quick trade on POZN....AEZS and KERX should do well into ASCO IMO I do think we will have a big crash until 2012 the casnio needs players crashing to soon will kill there plan imo.....

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  7. One other note LNG IMO as KLI suggested has bottomed..Also some one purchased 20k contracts of september 12 calls yesterday on LNG.....hum!!!

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  8. LNG....good to know on those calls

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  9. sold ZLCS....and traded it for more OSIR

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  10. re: EUO -- balanced article...fyi

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/42590871

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  11. Karmabull asked me last week whether it was a good time to buy AEN and I mentioned the trade was from $1 to $2 and that's it which was accomplished, hope you guys were not in AEN after that, they have tried this Zinc MS case two yrs in a row and the same time frame ( APRIL) which failed and history was against them. When I mentioned to dave to buy at $1s, he did and then took profit in higher 1s and that's it. Last yr after failure of the trials AEN droped from $3 to 0.70.

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  12. LLEN is kicking butt, what a nice short squeeze since stock hit 4.30, although it's small chinese stock and we know the drama with most of them, this one is starting to prove it's fine, anyway it's another great day for this puppy.

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  13. dj,

    Seems like LNG is turning upward, what's your sell target?

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  14. Joe,
    LLEN
    next resistance is 7.29 I believe with a little at 20sma...6.41

    that 4.30 move was like many flash crash, big boys jumped in hard...

    might settle back as that was big move...

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  15. llen is 4 real
    http://www.lnlinternational.com/Director.html
    check out board, directors and advisors...some heavy hitters..and its american company

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  16. LNG may be a fake out move....BUT...trend line NOT broken we have a higher low forming off of the march low of mid 6s....RSI trying to get over 50 now and Stochs looking like nice turn.....ya gotta think that they try to take out the 10.50....guess we'll find out

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  17. the hedges trade of shorting gold miners and long the physical is killing stocks like GFI....

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  18. OSIR is right on a nice band of resistance here.......should be interesting to see its response

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  19. kli,

    I already took profit on LNG after entering at 7.80 around 8.45, and now free shares, enter heavy, exit heavy and rest is gravy in this fucked up market.

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  20. creditguy,

    LLEN although is headquartered in Seattle, it's still chinese since it's business is in China, having said that I agree with you that with 1400 employees it's real and also they invited people April 14th and 15th to visit the sites in china and it seems O.K. Having said all of that play it safe and take profit and let free shares run if you already have nice profit.

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  21. Joe,
    wise thinking..

    I might take some play money and buy AEN right now before conf. call..
    they have mm warrants at 2.07..and Adam F gave shorters ok this am...might rebound as it hit 200 now up...tight stop

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  22. WARNING....anyone in the silver gold paper trade here is ASKING for trouble......gl

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  23. Kli,

    your metal calls are well...golden...

    Osir is interesting...taking look

    Fsys-still looking good..

    Dj your AEZS is now in portfolio...

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  24. Must read article..
    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-real-housewives-of-wall-street-look-whos-cashing-in-on-the-bailout-20110411

    the scum in the treasury and fed should be dumped into yucca mountain with the rest of the spent rods...

    Matt Taibbi is the only writer with balls..

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  25. Artice on LNG:

    http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/310523-expstktrader/161531-cheniere-energy-holds-the-key-to-a-gold-mine-found-here-in-the-us

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  26. Joe I think LNG will run HARD IN NEXT Next few months....I like atleast 12 or higher

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  27. Also if DOE approves Exporting NG LNG could fly like a drug approval...

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  28. dj,

    No problem, if LNG sinks I have free shares and if LNG goes up to 12 that's even better since free shares will make more money, this way is win win. Free shares I am talking about means one already took out original cost + nice profit.

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  29. Creditguy to give credit I did not bring AEZS to table but loved the fact that golden cross occured on weekly...chart looks great.....I see atleast $4 sooner and than later..

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  30. yes joe love the free share deal...Actually I do think if ponzi last longer say dow 14 k where I do think mkts go lng is 25-30 GMXR moving again on low volume.....good day for me...for once lol

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  31. ANYONE still holding PSLV???? Woodcarver???

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  32. PAL chart.......hmmmmm dip trade??? or trap???

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  33. I am still holding PSLV Kli. Bought at 10.50. I don't have the trading skills. So I have followed your core advice.

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  34. Kli,

    Why did you dump oxpa today? Just trying to see what your seeing...

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  35. Long term tom silver will be a monster.

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  36. Palmer Joe. RNN CEO bought 300000 thousanmd shares at 1.21 on April 1 It has been holding in here nicely. Any opinion. Thanks on AEN My wife nearly got a double and I got a nice boost out of it.

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  37. honest......have gone to shorter term trades now......I still think OPXA is solid....just stating what I did from only a disclosure. HEAVY CASH now with only shorter term horizon....

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  38. whoops.....i lied....hehehhe back in OPXA at 1.97........sold at 2.26 this am.....oh well I'm invested again

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  39. OK can elaborate on OPXA.....sold the spike today was all....didn't see anything to acct for it and I was right...I wouldn't have bought it back Honest if you had not brought it to my attention.

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  40. OPXA looks like it bounced on the news. Then sold off. I don't think I would have bought it back.

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  41. Opxa looks like it consolidating around this level waiting for 20 to cross 50..although best if u could buy it in the 1.70's and 1.80s...
    thanks for reply!

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  42. Dave,

    RNN was a good buy at 1.08 and for now it's bouncing between 1.18 and 1.25 until they have enough shares and then they will run it up, same old story.

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  43. Kli - Still have PSLV, SSRI, SLW and a little PZG...no worries. Do have a bunch of GLD and PHYS, what's with the comment regarding silver gold paper trade? Seems a little early?

    Cramer's biatch, Lenny Dykstra back in the news.

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