Wednesday, April 6, 2011

THE WALL OF WORRY

And UP we go that proverbial "wall of worry". Now you know where they found that terminology. Maarkets have always been manipulated throughout their history. You were just led to believe that free market forces guided them. Well if you haven't figured out what reality is by now then you never will. Over time nature provides equilibratiion such as pressure by the costs of essentials and the ultimate impact on runaway liquidity. Of course the life blood of equities is liquidity. Right now we are pouring it into the markets through the Fed's printing presses. Imagine a sputtering old stalled truck engine on the side of a highway and having a tanker truck pull up along side and start pouring in gasoline at such a rate its sloshing an pouring out all over the truck and road. The sputtering engine doesn't really start revving up but the massive ammount of spilled gas ignites and everything around them are consumed. Eventually something is going to give with the "Le Grande Experiment".

Have no fear...you are but mice withing the greatest economic laboratory experiment in the world. There will be no going back. Do not be disuaded by the pundits. We cannot withdraw the process of monetization. One way or another there will be monetization of our debt. The insane desire to reinflate a debt bubble collapse with more debt is only insane if you don't understand why it was done. Without this strategy by the Fed there would have been a complete destruction of the bondholders of the top ten largest banks...not just here but all around the developed world. The toxic brew that has placed hundreds of Trillions of liquidity onto their balance sheets still exists. The extend and pretend will lessen some of it as a few mortgages mature but that is only a small percentage of this toxic brew. Eventually only a washout will work. 2015 will be the end of the Kress Cycle deflationary wave and you can expect equities to get a real whacking by the K winter.....Make no mistake gold will do quite well. They will take an intial whack but will recover nicely as investors seek shelter with the fear trade taking over for gold.

Right now energy appears to be going through a short term top in many of the equities we play here. NBRs chart looks short term toppy. HNR GMXR looks better. WPRT also need some air taken out of it. Oil can run higher but its struggling too. Ben is desperate to push inflation into the system so he will take oil higher if he must. Yes that's correct, Ben wants inflation. Deflation is like Garlic right now to him. Once he has solidified his bank's balance sheets then he will wipe all the rest out. Time is his precious commodity here.

Silver is in breakout but I look for a nice smackdown at 42 area. That should have peak euphoria. It won't be too big of a hit less than 5 dollars. Then up to 50 for the bloody take down buy. hehehee.......watta game. SLW is a monster so is SSRI as the hedges pour into them.

57 comments:

  1. I would be careful here. I have closed all my positions and will wait until direction of next leg is on the wall. *** EURUSD ***
    and yesterday posted: *** Silver ***

    Silvergoldsilver also standing aside.

    From here it could well be short EURUSD from around 1.431x until we break that line in the sand.

    As for silver - see the chart.

    And visiting several boards - there are almost just bulls left - after yesterdays breakout of gold and HUI.
    Time will tell whether the majority is right.

    And of course I could be wrong - and the bulls out there right. Although to protect NAV is never wrong.

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  2. In my blog I have projected a doji either for today, tomorrow or friday.
    Although that is leaning to the bearish toppish side.

    From my positons I'm neutral here.
    But that can change anytime.

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  3. Neutral not 100% correct - shorting EURUSD with stop above todays highs.
    And below some trend channels I have sell orders waiting.

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  4. AGold everything looking toppy and agree some steam coming out. Also VXX looks like a nibble here...along with EUO.........Reduced miners more today out of SLW SSRI EXK EGO...reduced PSLV poor short term performance

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  5. no reason to stand too heavy long here......60% cash with some EUO VXX to cushion any raping

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  6. PalmerJ

    thanks for your insight on CRYP, its people like you that makes one do further reasearch and in time helps one become a better trader. like you said CRYP is 50/50 on outcome. no sure things in trading unless one works at Berkshire Hathaway

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  7. Kli-good call on ANIK yesterday...I watched it hit 8.20 and deer in headlight moment..didnt pull trigger

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=ANIK+Interactive#chart2:symbol=anik;range=6m;indicator=sma(50,20,200)+ema(100)+volume+mfi+macd;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

    bounced it off 100ema

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  8. Rudemood,

    I would like to see take over on CRYP not go thru which means stock will get brutalized initially for about 2 to 3 days and THEN kli and I will play it real heavy for short squeeze. If the buy out goes thru we still make money but not as much as we could have made if they would have brutalized it. I have scalped this puppy already when doctrader brought it up here.

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  9. I am suspicious about this low volume sell-off on ZLCS and that a Cup & Handle could be forming.
    Will buy more @ the 20 day ma.

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  10. Doctrader,

    Thanks for bringing up the CRYP initially on this board.

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  11. WPRT is an energize bunny, keeps on going!

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  12. yes wprt ran off and left my trade....wait for pullback now

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  13. Joe,
    Your more than welcome.
    I have made some money on your picks.
    I go on vacation in 2 weeks, so I may have time to hunt around for a pick.
    I have a penny stock that MIGHT set itself up in June, but it is way too early to present now.

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  14. Rudemood,

    The only sure thing is DEATH, all death is certain at any moment, people say taxes as well, not really since powerful can zig zag their way when it comes to taxes but no one can avoid death.

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  15. Talking about penny stocks I unloaded gsbc today for a whoopping 100% plus profit will buy more on pullbacks cause I thinks they got the Gold..DJ...

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  16. OK I will present a pick I have been looking for THis pick is going to present at ASCO in June...if it has been mentioned hear I do not know but it is under $2 and recently did a golden cross on weekly chart...Stock is AEZS do your dd if interested....

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  17. roddog brought that one up dj recently too....but never let that stop you from reminding me.....gotta look at it again....

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  18. Well my conservative pick of CBST a few weeks ago went from 21.70 to 30+ today....WOW....traded out at about 25.......manoman

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  19. All,

    Take a look at SSN and qbc and let me know your opinion on it.

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  20. KLI cool on AEZS I like that one....glad someone brought it up looks like a winner to me with golden cross...on weekly...Joe I brought up SSN few weeks ago I did not play it and played gmxr instead...I think it is a great pick for BAKKENS Play IMO maybe a little overbought...The other play imo looks like it needs to bounce and bounce soon...

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  21. PalmerJ,

    yeah, i agree with you on CRYP there sure is a possibility of making real good money if a takeover on CRYP doesnt happen. Southern Cross Healthcare was a primary example how one could have made huge profit, after its bones were picked clean from a bear raid.

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  22. GFRE is doing nicely, each time it gets close to 52 week low of 5.50, it bounces nicely.

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  23. Watch SSN for a retest of the 50ma and see if it holds as support

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  24. anybody ever trade SCOK? its a chinese coal company. since last week it has been beaten down hard

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  25. Penny stock sym from above is GSDC Rudemood I have look at that one in past but have not played..DO not trust those chinese plays....

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  26. DJ, I completely agree, these companies are frauds, but sometimes i play the game with them. thanks. i will take a look at GSDC (not to trade, just out of curiosity)

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  27. damn, just looked at GSDC, its up 35% today. i wish i change my mind, i wish i did trade that. haha

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  28. rudemood, every chinese energy play is been beaten down...LLEN is good example...

    David Stockman strikes the fed again...love it

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crony-capitalism-strikes-again-2011-04-06

    In the face of these ripping commodity index gains, the Fed’s argument that surging food costs are due to emerging market demand growth is just plain lame. Was there a worldwide fasting ritual going on during the months just before the August QE2 signals when food prices were much lower? And haven’t the EM economies been growing at their present pace for about the last 15 years now, not just the last seven months

    classic!

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  29. Rudemood the pick from above GSDC I mentioned back in Jan or Febuary is sym was cmin but last friday the stock changed names and it took off like a scalded dog...lol..

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  30. joe
    got into that gfre and is working nicely about to meet my criteria for a trade then watch it to test the low again watching to do the murder thing on ccme i know you are laying in wait

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  31. SSN and QBC opposite ends of daily technical.

    SSN high cash but very low short interest.
    QBC high short interest probably due to low cash on hand more volatility for the casino dollar.

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  32. Today is what I call excellent day from market posting perspective, bringing up trades, stocks,analysis, keep it up. This what I envisioned when kli first started his blog, kudos to every one, rudemood, dj, doctrader, creditguy, and every one else.

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  33. Red,

    You have never let me down, folks are participating and sharing and that's very nice, team effort.

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  34. dj,

    Red & kli would have loved GSDC at 0.10, now 0.40.

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  35. the more I look at POZN, the more I like...plus a certain fda chemist liked it a bunch...

    running into asco seems to be play..

    plus earnings are growing...

    scaling in now..

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  36. creditguy,

    I like POZN, seems undervalued!

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  37. kli,

    check out POZN creditguy brought up, looked at quickly and seems undervalued, it hit 52 week low of 4.50 on March 15th, tight float and their EPS is good also.

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  38. palmerjoe,

    maybe they let it consolidate here and let the 200/100 catch up over next week to the 50 crossover, the balance sheet looks strong, cash flow strong..low float...

    or it just takes off like last march, early april

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  39. kenny,

    GFRE just broke 6 , nice!

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  40. Slow reaction today picked up POZN position at 5.95.....agree.

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  41. POZN is worth accumulating and adding in any weakness now, it's a good one. Look at the 200 and 50ma, heheeee!

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  42. creditguy,

    you can drop the palmer, call me joe .

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  43. JOE me too I bought at .18 and .20c. .20c was last Friday when company chg name...sold some @.42c KLI funny I just looked at pozn chart...LOL...KERX having a very nice day.....Agree with Joe great blog to share minds...

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  44. If they squeeze the EURO to 149...EUO would be a monster buy

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  45. BTW I have my position in EUO but would hit it heavy at 149

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  46. it looks like they closed the start of gap down from jan. 17 2010 today...I see the gap to 149...the euro at 143.anything is laughable...

    I'll join you in euo and might start scaling in this afternoon...portugal needs bailout money yet euro floats like a rose parade vehicle..go figure

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  47. kli
    take a look VASO creeping up slowy looking for more money on eecp treatments i remember when you and jim hit that baby for a butt load i read lately that they were working on something for blood pressure

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  48. Roach and Faber on CNBS tomorrow....should be down day.

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  49. Kenny....67K shares from avg 1.20 to 9.50....have to be crazy to do that one

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  50. Kenny I had enought of that one for a life time, but then I know you are crazy. I work on some stocks call me.

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  51. jim
    thanks ole buddy then then when i looked in the mirror i seen that you might be right kli joe would have told you to sell enough shares to get your money back then play the rest right joe

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  52. AOB was brought to my attention today..large volume move..company share buyback possible?

    dont own but will look at it tomm..

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