Monday, May 9, 2011

LET'S BE PERFECTLY CLEAR

Maybe..... First this is an ALL OUT effort to stave off a deflationary collapse. There is NO CHOICE but to continue monetization of the debt. Pretending that the economy is stablilizing is an obvious effort to create confidence and help to kick the can further down the road to fulfill promises to the current administration that the economy could be kept on life support to give O a chance for re-election. It may get him re-elected but the patient is going to die. The probability of a hyperinflationary scenario before the deflationary collapse remains small. I do not see the PTB allowing a washout of all debt which is exactly what a hyperinflationary scenario will produce. The trigger signal will be most likely a tightening of interest rates which will be trumpeted by the MSM as a sure sign that the economy is back on track. Most likely by the time that happens....early next year...stagflation will be severe enough that the public will be screaming for the scalps of the pols and Ben knows the brakes are eventually going to have to be used. Rather than a crash ensuing I strongly anticipate that some form of monetization will be used during the intial rate hikes to keep markets....equity and bond. In other words it will appear the investment community gives its approval...HA.

For now our interest remains fixed on the Precious metals trade as the much predicted beatdown of the trade took place and through fear into the hearts of the weak hands. New longs choked and puked up positions for the past as the massively manipulated COMEX raised margin requirements so many times I ran out of fingers and toes to keep up with it. Please tell me you get it now......this is ALL a game........and you DO NOT own this casino. But don't think the casino can't lose with some players and we are trying to convince ourselves we are going to be that player.

I hope that eveyone noticed the news this weekend that Hong Kong is opening its own "COMEX". This could be quite a change in the game. Stay tuned. Will this beome a thorn in the side of the precious metal/king dollar juggernaut? Will the West's stranglehold on the commodity trade finally be broken? Is silver's early morning surge a response to this event?

Pay close attention to the technical movements of silver. if it breaks out over 38 and holds then it is gone. I want to see a hold....This could easily happen because it would leave several wannabe longs on the sidelines wanting to see a more healthy consolidation move here. I know I do. I want to see this market trade in a healthy range for a couple of weeks between 33 and 38.

Gold remains very healthy. With the EU troubles slowly coming front and ceter again, it represents the "safe" trade in more than one way. For the trader that likes to avoid the beta down moves it gives you less of a heart attack than silver. With the EU coming front and center ...several of the gold miners could finally start turning. EGO GFI have technicall been beating along at the bottom of their stochastics MACDs channes etc....ie. they have limited downside and really need to start performing.

GPL in silver has been a nice trade and I will continue to give it a close look each day for movements to trade it. If silver does run off then these miners and PSLV will be my trade. I will not chase it but try and trade it only. I nibbled the last ten days to build a very small position in PSLV and SLW and a couple of others but nothing major. Its still dangerous and your profit has to be protected.

Oil is getting a bounce back....not shocking as some greedy shorts (me) will get a squeeze. I still think we see low nineties soon. I won't bet the farm but can you imagine the audacity of the ponzi pushing oil over 100. The results of this has been devastating to the consumer. It has absolutely killed millions of people. Well...that's the game so have fun. gl

38 comments:

  1. Well that is pretty clear ....... thanks.

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  2. "Oil is getting a bounce back....not shocking as some greedy shorts (me) will get a squeeze. I still think we see low nineties soon"

    Not sure what to think about oil. that news article this weekend touted oil was going to pullback , possibly to $80/barrell. probably bullshit, but, i rebought some DTO that i had sold last week. Mr. Kli, low 90's seems very possible.

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  3. just keep it small rude and thnx ck

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  4. From "Pharmboy" of Phil's Stock World.

    He likes ARIA (has a promising Sarcoma drug) and CERS. Both are up so far today. I have owned ARIA in the past & made some money.

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  5. I'm averaging into TKLC...
    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TKLC+Interactive#symbol=tklc;range=2y;compare=;indicator=sma(50,200,100)+mfi+rsi+macd;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;

    missed OXGN low today..

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  6. Watching CYCC today.. close above 200sma would be sweet...

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  7. Kli,

    I sold a bunch of DTO last week over $47.00, today i jumped the gun a bit. the bet wasnt huge, but then again, i am down a quick point. almost feels like Mr. Mkt, is setting me up. haha. thanks for the advice.

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  8. Hello Ladies and Gentlemen, this week I will be reloading on AEZS......stock IMO is going places in 11....ARIA yes what a winner last you could have stole shs for $2....lol gene @.50c....good luck traders....KLI some of the silver traders got what you have been talking last week and that is wiped out!!!!good luck to all...

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  9. why is PSLV charging higher than miners today?

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  10. Chuck,

    CYCC is gathering some steam, looks cheap!

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  11. dontcha love how they steal the weak oil shorts here......hehehhehe........

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  12. kli,

    Pay attention to CYCC, risk/reward is not bad at current price.

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  13. joe, looks ready to take off...take a look at tklc I posted above....it might be forming bottom of cup...great buyout candidate....see where it was before....A W Buffett like buy...beaten up...

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  14. Chuck,

    TKLC has strong support around 7.50, will be watching!

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  15. "dontcha love how they steal the weak oil shorts here......hehehhehe.."

    its a funny game. i already placed my bet in the morning. hopefully you are correct.

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  16. Kli Up a little on DTO and GPL

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  17. Chuck,

    I am familiar with the product TKLC has which focuses on SS7 signaling and the standard used in telecom industry. It looks interesting at current price, seems like for the past two months it's been forming a bottom.

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  18. joe,

    I like the 250 million in cash and near low of last 10 years....beat guidance on last report... of course 7.50 would have been a great place to buy...

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  19. Need to run...but have noticed oxgn is sticky around 3.05 area.. best place to play scalp...

    good trading to you all...

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  20. Not sure if anyone owns CRYP, but its been slowly moving up, unfortuneatly the volume is extremely weak. Amaya and Thousand Hills have made more purchases in the last week. i am somewhat optimistic.

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  21. picked up DCTH at 6.25 with tight stop at the Feb low ... and some SPPI for a ride from today's lows ... had a trip planned to Vegas which fell through, so now this is all I got

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  22. wolf.....you can NEVER let a trip ta vegas fall through......hehhehe......Looks like oil is goin to 106.....just sayin

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  23. Still have CRYP, pick up GPL and DTO today . Jim

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  24. Hear ya, Kli. That's Marc for you :) ... btw, at least for now, I'm winning

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  25. Sheila Bair OUT at the FDIC...I guess she could only become so crooked.....I always thought in 08 she was trying......after 3 years she knows it useless.......she'll take the "after the job" payoff circuit and buy gold while she can

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  26. "Looks like oil is goin to 106.....just sayin "

    you probably be right. i hope its just a retrace that breaks down shortly after. my impatientance got the best of me. in hindsite, i should not of pulled the trigger so fast. that will teach me. haha. thanks for the update Kli.

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  27. whoops...picked up oxgn.....

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  28. "Let's be perfectly clear" - how did you get Obama to guest post? What a coup. You da man. Hehehehe

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  29. EU politicians have an interesting technique..

    http://blogs.wsj.com/brussels/2011/05/09/luxembourg-lies-on-secret-meeting/

    I can't decide if this makes them more or less honest than US politicians.. They've got a lotta nerve I'll give them that.

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  30. CME hikes margin req on OIL......baboooooom

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  31. Holy moly, a 25% margin increase?

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  32. And crude futures are still holding their ground? Surreal.

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  33. If this hike is baked in already I'll be more surprised than when four and twenty blackbirds were baked in a pie.

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  34. Well I suppose it's possible the levered shorts got overzealous and it's their lunch money which is to be taken..

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  35. this will be a controlled takedown...very dangerous if it turned into a freefall for overall market liquidity....should be a nice trade.....back n fro....where it ends...no one knows....but i will guess in a couple o months it will form a base in mid 80s

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  36. "this will be a controlled takedown."

    Kli,

    in a controlled take down of oil , how would you expect DTO to react price wise.? if oil goes down a little bit each day, it would seem DTO would fair better in that scenario, as opposed to a huge one or two day oil sell off.

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  37. just remain patient and lets see if we can get it to the 94 level for the first trade......

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  38. $94 level will be on my radar. i didnt expect the rate hike. its funny sometimes how this game is rigged at so many different levels, amazing stuff.. hopefully on the right side of this trade.

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