Wednesday, May 4, 2011

RISK ON RISK OFF??

What does this really mean? Has Ben turned off the printing press? Who's pulling the strings of the puppet here. Who is the puppet and who is the puppeteer? You really don't believe that President Obama is running this show do you? Surely by now you have studied this game long enough to recognize that this is a "Game of the Gods" and I am not referring to the old Germanic board game. These players the Bankers of the bankers and they are navigating the Titanic. They may have hit the iceberg but they sure as hell are not going to let the band stop playing. After all.....they've been on this voyage before. After years and decades and centuries of managing these economic and market cycles this game never gets old for the puppeteers.

Right now we are trying to let some steam out of the engine room and that steam is the price of oil. We are all looking at gold and silver here and it IS a headline they hate to see but of even more urgency for them is oil. Interestingly enough they seem to be more focused on silver which makes me believe that the COMEX and the JPM short position was indeed in danger of a major default. But I find the lack of effort on the oil price even more interesting and makes be believe that indeed they want to see inflation put back into the system so desperately that they are willing to kill the patient to save the doctor. Otherwise they get the bankers most dreaded enemy ..... deflation.

Deflation will be natures ultimate solution for their violation of economic and nature's law but they intend to keep sailing full speed ahead and oil and its effects will be collateral damage to the plebes. Can you imagine.....that just 2 short years after the collapse of oil prices we are now at 110 dollars a barrel? In an economy that is still on life support with real unemployment at 16%. Small businesses are hanging buy their fingernails with gasoline at 5$/gal in some areas of the country. This is what a sinking ship looks like as STAGFLATION insidiously takes us to the bottom as the band plays on and the chairs are rearranged on the deck.

None of the factors have changed for our energy and precious metals plays. In fact with the number of top callers coming out again with this recent beatdown of the PMs you can rest assured this is NOT the top. Be patient and hope that your favs like SLW SSRI ANV GFI GPL HL EXK get cheaper. We may get a V bottom so if you want to nibble here and you have NO core then I won't complain. I have restarted my trading core the last two days and have 80% left for may desired core position.

Also watching WPRT HNR ATPG HERO GMRX LNG ......not quite there and keep hoping this is a multiweek event.....remember sell in May and go away...If you've made money BE PATIENT and see what they give you.

41 comments:

  1. Mauldin writes about Deflation in his book "Endgame" and does describe that our Fed. Chiefs will fight it at all costs. He joked that in order to become a Fed. Chief, you must receive a DNA implant that causes the individual to always fight deflation.

    Mauldin writes similar to what we have discussed here, that Deflation will come first, then followed by Inflation. He does not believe that the US will have Hyperinflation. He does not give a timeline.

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  2. The system..what a farce...a little story before trading...Loaned friend 5K, then he put me as creditor in bk 13, filed adversary proceeding ($250) to dispute stay based on fraud and getting loan on false pretenses, Trustee dismissed case for not making court ordered payments 1 year later, went to adversary proceeding court date yesterday and judge dismissed action since bk was dismissed.

    asked judge for my $250.00 back since I was not given my day in court, he said he couldn't do that...So the court gets my money without hearing the complaint and now I have to file in small claims..messed up system....

    pissed as hell..in the old west, I could shoot the bastard..I long for that...

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  3. Oil under $110. looking like it may test its april low at $106. atleast thats what i hope since i own some DTO.

    I know alot of chatter that silver could correct more. i like the fact if the mkt rallies it could run, and if the mkt tanks, it is still a fear trade. looking to add to SLW the silver raid continues. good luck everyone.

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  4. Bought a little anv this am...we'll see. GLTA, headed to NY, won't be around much for a few days (just in case you were wondering, lol).

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  5. honestcredit ...Loaned friend 5K an old proverb of mine....... "loan a friend money if you need a new enemy"

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  6. Soros may have sold position in metals...

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-04/silver-drops-after-wsj-says-soros-passport-capital-sold-precious-metals.html

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  7. Yes Sammy but remember Soros has SEVERAL reasons to sell positions 1) he was a BIG investor in GLD and he knows its a PONZI and will potentially blow up one day... 2) he has made a hell of a profit and may be playing it just like we are.. 3) wait and see what he files...... I doubt that he is out of the trade .... especially ANV .... I see no evidence of that

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  8. Very good points...lighten his risk and take some profits off the table. I'm just personally suspicious of the $38 target that every trader they parade on CNBS keeps giving. It may turn sooner or fall right through it. On another note, thanks for the call on oil. Jumped into some DTO yesterday...yum, now I can afford to fill up my gas tank haha!

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  9. I'm still watching HL. There is support @ 8, but if that is lost, it looks like it could get to 7 in a hurry.

    ZLCS is selling off since earning weren't so good & they are estimating a larger cash burn due to research. I still want to buy back in at some point, but how long will it go??

    It's ugly out there, or beautiful depending on your point of view.

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  10. miner's performance VERY encouraging with silver beatdown......SLW HL GPL all trying to form tradable bottomes...don't jump in with both feet but ...perhaps a trade

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  11. ATPG hitting some very interesting levels.....had to take a small position......may be a knife

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  12. if this is a multi week beatdown on commods then ATPG is heading for 14.30 area........minimum then

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  13. funny mkt is only down 125 but you would think it is down 500 with they way some of these stocks are getting beat down to nothing...

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  14. ATPG close to cutting through 200 dma, 14.30 is low for weekly if this is a larger pullback along with S&P it looks like monthly lower band of around 10 and change could be reached.

    As for SLW i would wait until 29.50 on the lower weekly band before considering to play.

    PZG much tougher to call bottom, cut through weekly now looking at 2.15.

    S&P needs to get to 1240 or 1175 to reload and garner enough short interest to squeeze to keep this Ponzi going just a little bit longer.

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  15. $29.50 for SLW? wow, i was thinking the 200day would be its max pain, $32.50 range. i guess its something to consider. SLW is bouncing all over the place its very confusing to me the way its trading the last 2 days.

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  16. AUY up nicely, SSRI up a bit too...what's that about? TIA.

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  17. seems like there might be long setups possibly in the agriculture space. POT,MOS,MON, ect.. have trended down to near there 200day.

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  18. Sis you coming up with the President tomorrow? hehehe

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  19. Ben B says no inflation, fed's Fisher and Williams say respectively; I feel inflation in my gut and I see inflation ending later this year? Hoenig says need to raise rates to squash inflation..

    I'm confused...

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  20. Yep, Tom, hope it doesn't interfere with my flight...too bad I won't be on AF#1! Are you in NY? Honest, I stay confused, LOL...took a small pos in anv today and you see where THAT went...silver miners up even tho silver down to 39.40 Hmmm. I have my core positions...just didn't add...also bought pzg waaaay to high.

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  21. Yup sure do! Suuuburbia...... Hope the weather clears up for your visit, nothing but clouds and showers for the past few days yuck! Only holding core of PHYS at the moment. Glad Joe was around yesterday!! I really had the itch to get in something!! Glad I waited....

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  22. Sold HL on spike above $8.40. Will look to reenter tomorrow.

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  23. Missed that last CLSN boat waiting for a better entry, Joe what was your time frame in saying it needed to hold 2.75? Might I be able to hop on that rollercoaster in the low 2.00s?

    Whether this commodity correction is over or not I dare not guess.. Maintaining my cash-heavy positioning for now. WTI oil has been beat down fairly effectively since last week but Brent crude looks like a juggernaut. They may need more USD strength if they want to slow that monster down.

    http://www.4-traders.com/BRENT-CRUDE-OIL-SPOT-95178/technical_analyses-full/

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  24. Kli you think maybe people are getting spooked out of paper and into miners because of Comex silver shortage rumors? SSRI and PAAS are putting up a pretty good fight for a day like this.

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  25. Oh, anyone in ANV will probably want to have a look at the AH.

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  26. Well so much for ANV AH :P, looks like somebody sure wanted in after close tho.

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  27. Hello All---

    Does anybody follow REE or PAL?

    --Sean.

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  28. Love the Soros item. Was it about a year ago he was calling it a bubble while buying? lol...

    Surpsied to see SLW and SSRI up and Silver getting killed.

    Out of my PCRIX, I need metals down more AND oil. Also need 30 days (I hate my 401K now).

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  29. yes we do sheeps......and your question...I own PAL in an account ...... but not in my personal accts.......

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  30. Darn - gave up too much over the last few days with PCRIX, greedy greedy greedy...now have to wait to reload something...

    Did I mention OI hate my 401K?

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  31. PAL and SWC were crazy at times!!!!

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  32. Looks like PAL could come in a bit more? and REE is a go anytime as long as it does break down from here?

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  33. Frankly, I'm disgusted...5 margin hikes in silver!? I don't see anyone trying to curb the rise in oil, corn, or any other far more relevant commodity to everyday life. What a scam, and it's becoming clearer by the day. Social revolt can't be far behind...

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cme-margin-hike-4th-and-5th-charting-parabolic-rise-cme-silver-margin-hikes?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29&utm_content=Google+Feedfetcher

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  34. Sammy.....what this TELLS you...is that all of the hype on silver WAS true......that the default on the COMEX is in play and the JPM short.....this most likely will ONLY allow the shorts to cover and some bullion to be dislodged.....weak hands will clear the trade....hopefully the trade will become more stable and we can CONTINUE to play in this casino.... as far as oil goes....well isn't that obvious

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  35. Trader Dan has an interesting interview.

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/5/4_Dan_Norcini_-_Silver_Plummets%2C_What_to_Look_For_Now.html

    If I understand it correctly
    He states that miners lead the silver as hedges unwind their pair trades.

    That gold isn't falling much because there are many gold - silver hedges that are unwinding now.

    So the questions begs: do these margin increases cause additional unwinding and this supports the miners?

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  36. Was true and still is true..silver bulls are gonna be buyin this could get really dirty. Perhaps silver may come in a bit more but heck???

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  37. CME Margin Hike won't matter, The CRIMEX Clowns got stuffed yesterday
    wrs - Wed, May 4, 2011 - 08:48 PM

    I think I know what happened. I kept thinking that if OI increased on the kind of price drop we saw yesterday, then longs didn't capitulate because if they did, OI would have shrunk.

    Here is what I think happened, the Commercials have been decreasing their net short in this latest runup, in other words, they helped it go up by covering short and going long. I believe they were doing that to accentuate the rise and to be able to liquidate their profits and accentuate the drop and cover short when the spec longs gave up. They wanted silver to look parabolic and then fail in order to scare everyone off.

    Well it looks like the large specs have held tight, the COT report on Friday should show that the large long specs increased longs and are more net long while the commercials are more net short. Yesterday it was the commercials selling at a discount to the spec longs who just soaked up all the selling the commercials could do.

    So today they raised margins again because I bet that the OI didn't drop much today if they had to raise margins again.

    This is setting up for a huge snap back rally if my conjecture is close to correct.

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  38. That would imply the play is silver, not the miners at the bottom of silver.

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  39. Not sure how the mechanics of silver producers selling their metal works, but wouldn't it be interesting to hear if the start getting premiums above comex prices for their product.

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  40. After having watched almost all day every day for the past 2+ yrs., I agree with kli's and joe's original assessment from the beginning--the final place to be is physical gold/silver. In the meantime, I think the miners show great earnings in here...I liked the miner late afternoon rally today, but what do I know?

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