Thursday, May 26, 2011

SOME THINGS CHANGE

But not the forecast for this year. It still is going to be a trader's market. Just like 2010 was. The trick is to know how they are going to do it. They know. Just look at the recent bear call by Goldman on commodities. just a few, short weeks ago they made that very bearish call, sending oil silver etc. plunging. Of course they were short on their own prop desks as were their satellite hedge operatives. Then magically they reverse their bearish call and go bullish on commodities. Now that was one of the shortest major market calls yet.

What caused this sudden reversal? Did they see a sudden shift in the economy? Did they "re-analyze" their data and find that it was not bearish but bullish instead. Maybe it was something more ominous.....perhaps the "shakedown" er shakeout of the commodity prices for the ponzi created some serious problems for them.....ie LIQUIDITY... My guess is they would have liked to take prices further down but were running into some liquidity issues and had to put the brakes on the drain. This doesn't mean we won't have some continued downward pressure on commodities for sometime...probably through the entire summer. But during this time there will be rallies that are tradeable, particularly in the precious metals and energy.

Don't forget the energy plays HNR (Soros is still buying last quarter) WPRT (a monster) ATPG (a monster)....NBR...SGY..

We still have another month of scheduled POMO. This should provide at the minimum support until it expires. After it expires we may get another "shakedown" for another cry from the masses for the Fed to step in with QE3. One way or another they WILL have a QE3...that is an absolute must. Otherwise last one out of the stock exchange can turn out the lights.....because the ponzi is over.

Miners still looking like they have some technical traveling to do but I trimmed a bit off my holdings yesterday for a trade if they pull them back a percent or two. This is a tricky game and if you have a core you will be rewarded this year. SSRI SLW GPL EGO GFI ANV GORO AG EXK HL.......yum yum. gl all

Final note.... Google blogger doesn't like us I guess. So when you try to comment go into your google account (it may come up when you commment) When you sign in MAKE SURE YOU UNCHECK the "keep me signed in box" .. There is a glitch that will not allow you to comment if the box is left checked. Lets see the comments again thats what makes this work for us..

55 comments:

  1. will be watching ABIO, SNSS and ARNA this AM...ARNA especially looks ready to rip..doubled vol. yesterday...released phase 3 study results this am....must be nice to know before the release...

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  2. there has been alot of chatter about LDK on this board, i decided to take a nibble on it, eventually the carnage will come to an end.

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  3. dcth might have bottomed..more buyers..

    rude..I'm close on your heels...started nibbling last week...that 6.18 sure is better than 12. msg board had capitulation feel coming on last week..

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  4. honestcreditguy,

    yeah, i figure at this point the risk is somewhat limited and if it goes break under 6.00, i will avr down, unless of course the world is coming to an end. i didnt want to be late to the party, no guarentees of course, but i fired my first bullet at it.

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  5. CYCC on the move. Keep going...keep going!!!

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  6. LLEN has hit 6.01 twice the last 2 days and it has held. Might be good support. We will see.

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  7. I'm still holding LDK......hehehe

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  8. 20 million on arna and 12c move..secondary coming?

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  9. dollar reversing......hehehhe.....lets knock the metals a lil bit here......look for silver to retest the 36.40 level

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  10. I dont if anyones been watching but zlcs is building back so momo...

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  11. thnx chuck will look....also LDK painting bullish engulfing candle today.

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  12. I agree guys with nibbling at LDK at this level, the down side is only $1, Inlet it's time to see updated chart on LDK. This puppy has sure got brutalized from high of $15.

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  13. Red,

    What's your view on LDK at this level?

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  14. Joe,
    can you look at RXII? I'm starting to like it with asco so near....plus its cheap and beat up.....75 c bottom?

    they have presentation at asco.....for a scalp trade

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  15. Hey Joe - saw your post yesterday but was busy on a family thing that appears to be a non-issue (whew), waiting for final results next week.

    I was still only easing into PZG so only got about a third of what I wanted to pick up, average around 3.00. Still good but after getting some above 3, was waiting for the lower 2.65, 2.55 and then 2.20s to really pick some more up. Only got the 2.65 filled. Still good though.

    Might nibble LDK in my play money account.

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  16. chuck,

    RXII needs to close over $1, if it does then it has room to run.

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  17. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=RXII+Interactive#symbol=rxii;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma(50,30,200)+ema(100,10,)+volume+macd+rsi;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;

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  18. look at CBST ...watta monster....I brought that at 21 a few months ago as a "safe play"......played it to 25.50 and thought I made a killing......look at it now.....

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  19. homer,

    I wanted you to buy heavy at 2.60 and then yesterday take profit and hold some shares for retesting of 2.70s and lower to readd. 2.60 to 3.40 is 0.80 gain and that would have given you nice coin, I know you nibbled previously at 3.30 which was ok and then bought more at 2.65.

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  20. btw a reminder if you can't comment and your google acct keep me signed in box isn't UNCHECKED by you they will NOT let you comment....UNCHECK it

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  21. Missed that Joe but that sounds an awful lot like trading...lol. If it retests I'm good with that unless something changes. I still remembering being afraid of ALU in 2.20s after buying in the 3.30s and that's even after red crawled out of a sick bed to buy, I was watching then and couldn't commit (fear).

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  22. Homer,

    When I said nibble PZG at 3.30 about 2 to 3 weeks ago that MEANT buy 10% of overall money you wanted to invest in PZG and then in 2.60 buy 30% more and when it got back to 3.30 or 3.40 then you would have taken out 25% of your 40% investment out, if stock goes higher you already made money and continue making money, if it retraces back to 2.70 then you start readding, this way risk/reward as an investor would be in your side.

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  23. Homer......there is a reason that Joe doesn't have fear as an emotion......HE IS FEAR....not a joke.....I'll leave it at that

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  24. LDK looks like a bounce on the hourly before breaking below 6 into the 5s. Just an opinion.

    Overall market has not been taken down enough to establish a sustained push higher. Taking things up from here would just lead to sideways trading and lower highs before another leg down to reload.

    Liquidity along with persistent high energy and food prices is a problem at this level. I wouldn't nibble outside of a day trade at LDK until S&P breaks below 1300.

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  25. rxii might turn up here, needs that huge block order to push it above 50sma on daily resistance..

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  26. Red,

    Could very well happen which is why I mentioned nibbling for those who are not day traders and nibbling means 10% of whatever money folks want to buy LDK with.

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  27. Joe and Red,

    thanks for the insight on LDK, appreciate the thought opinions on it.

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  28. i meant to say well thought opinions. hopefully my trading will be better than my writing.

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  29. tklc has solid support at 8, needs to clear 100 sma..smooth sailing to resistance around 10.60 if so.......

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  30. Hello All, miners trying to get green!

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  31. Thanx Joe - I understand. Problem is I split the purchase in the mid 2s into two after failing to get the bigger purchase at $2.50, one smaller one triggered at $2.65, the other one didn't. Not a big deal and I really can't watch every day so even swing trading is out for me. One thing I need to do is not try to squeeze a few cents out of a trade but I always was a bottom feeder. And its not over yet...

    Gotcha Kli

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  32. chuck,

    RXII looking good so far, this one has really been shorted, couple of weeks ago it hit 0.75 and since then steady rise, O/S is reasonable which is 40M shares, this one has the potential to run, it's worth the risk, kli down side in this one is about 0.30 and upside could easily be double or triple from here.

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  33. picked up a position....looks like a nice risk/rew

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  34. remember if you cannot post ...remove the check from the box that says keep me signed in.

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  35. Pretty much took off the miner day trades...Maybe get a chance to re-load lower..maybe not. Anyway take some days off...

    GL all.

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  36. Sean, Enjoy the sw swells...of course good food, family and safe travel is winning too...

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  37. Joe,

    I'm in around 1....the 1.60's could be a target..

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  38. CRYP having a good day.
    I found a reference that "Thousand Hills Limited" added 179K share to their position. Announcement was today.

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  39. Miners turning negative here......and closing under the daily 50RSI.....also cant clear the bearish 20/50 cross.....all negative..which means they'll probably be up tomorrow.....lol

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  40. Thanks for the Google acct. tip, tried to post on Tues. to no avail, it was so important that I cannot remember the gist of it! Trying to see if it works this time...and picking up some gfi, gpl...

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  41. Crude failed to close positive but was able to post a new high. Momentum has started to shift bullish again and on a close above the 18 day MA at $101 look for more buying to appear. A bearish AGA report contributed to natural gas being down on the day but losses were pared with a close nearly 15 cents off the intra-day low. The 100 day MA supported the indices again today and as we hinted yesterday forced into the market we would rather be long than short. A close above the 50 day MA which should happen today gets bulls back in the driver’s seat.

    The dollar was lower for the third consecutive session and as we predicted should be making its way back near 74.00 in the June contract. Our favored play is longs in the Swissie and Pound. Inside day in live cattle…accumulate longs looking for first the gap from last week to be filled and then an eventual test of the 20 day MA. Silver closed down 1% after trading within 25 cents of the 50 day MA overnight. On a breach of that level expect a further appreciation of $2-3 ounce…we should know in the next few sessions. We advised clients with multiple positions to lighten up on longs. Traders searching for metals exposure outside of silver could lightly buy gold…today some clients bought October bull call spreads
    Matt Bradbord...SA today

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  42. Hi Kli

    Stupid question time in regards to silver, is there any commodity trading today for less then it traded in the 1980's?

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  43. hehehhehe......great question Tom........hehehee....admittedly the spike in silver in 80 was aberrant.....but short answer no

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  44. hey Doc,

    I am a CRYP follower. thanks for the update. it had a very nice run today. the afterhours trades on it are very strange though.

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  45. Joe - I believe we helped people for the most part to avoid jumping in too early on LDK (time will tell). It now appears time to move in - if one intends to do so. Here is the updated chart you requested: http://swingcycles.blogspot.com/2011/05/ldk-05-17-2011.html

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  46. Inlet,

    i am one of the people that you and Joe has helped with LDK. i read your analysis on the 17th of May and waited, also Joes target of under 6 was a great barometer of near term risk. there are no guarentee's in this game, but i liked the risk/reward setup in the morning and took a shot. this is a great blog, very inisghtful on the mkt and the happenings around the world. i want to thank you and Joe on this trade, even if it goes south, i think you helped me get in a a very good entry. props to the people on this blog, i do appreciate what everyone brings to the table.

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  47. Tom,

    Funny you should ask, here's an interesting chart comparing silver since 1980...

    http://dailyreckoning.com/silver-still-precious/

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  48. After market closed in regular time news on LDK regarding contract with Italy and after hrs it closed at 6.77. Inlet, thatnks for the updated chart.

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  49. Amusing lol, need to step the TA up to compete with my model though, you cannot piss like a puppy and run with the big dogs. The pressure of time has a high attrition rate. Nice video:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vpsCXAcAELU

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  50. The Cycle Dawg runs alone.

    Easy to offer your comments (anonmyously) without any examples of your "model". Don't break your arm patting yourself on the back - if it is so great share it with the folks here like others do so they can judge the value for themself.

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  51. Compare SPY relative strength versus LDK and map SPY cycles as overlay comparison, you will see the 3 week up target to reverse intermediate trend on LDK will have SPY cycles override.

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