Friday, June 3, 2011


Its all about jobs. At least until the report comes out at 8:30. The Challenger ADP report was atroceous and in many ways is more telling than whatever comes out this morning. Especially after the original estimates were tamped down for Friday's numbers after the ADP bomb. Obviously we are sinking. Why even try and pretend to give the PTB the benefit of the doubt. Monetization and NO fiscal policy in a deleveraging environment are recipes for failure. Synchronized World efforts to prop up a sinking Ponzi built up by decades of derivatives will only stem the hemorrhage. It will not repair the ruptured artery. Years of blatant lies and manipulation are coming home to roost.

CNBC will have their octagon going full blast before the numbers come out and if they are "better than estimates" a quick pump of the futures should ensue. If they are worse than expected then a red opening with a nice short squeeze later in the morning can be expected. Dollar weakness no longer is an indicator of the Precious Metals trade so hanging your hat on its direction is ludicrous, but you are welcome to participate in that charade. I don't even bother to look anymore.

The immediate trading parameters for PMs appear to focus more on the Eurozone machinations and right now that is a three ring circus with maximum obfuscation in process with daily predictions of another bailout..... so you decide. I'll go with the can-kicking myself.

Most precious metals blogs clearly see the future of the metals and miners trade after each trading day is over. Just remember this is an accumulation phase and flushing you with the action is the flush peeps and let them play their all and enjoy your casino


  1. joe
    jim having trouble posting ask me to see what your thoughts on greenspans view at the labour dept on cnbc this morning wow

  2. Something not mentioned re: fcel, POSCO POWER CORP is the largest direct share holder in fcel.... Seems they have a vested interest. I like it and fuel cells have more practical applications then solar and wind. Toes in.... Thanks Joe and every one else for your comments as it has helped fill in some more missing parts to the research puzzle for me! btw past two days conversation have been great! Both booked marked!!

  3. remember to remove the check on the keep me signed in box if your comment won't post.

  4. comes the Fed....

  5. Kli,

    gold is up and the miners still getting hit hard , EGO for example. i am a bit perplexed. the dollar is down and the euro is up. does that indicate that QE3 would be on the table? if QE3 is on the table that should be good for gold.

  6. Hi Joe - responded yesterday to you. My company's VPN connection at customer is iffy, off and on all day. Still behaving poorly going to build a secure tunnel.

    I say bring it on with PZG, not sure Nancy is appreciative though. lol

  7. rude....just the game.....gotta kick PMs in the teeth as hard as possible by the PTB...Paper gold trades are easy targets for unlimited money (naked shorts) enjoy it....and do what they are doing........accumulating

  8. kli,

    thanks, this game with the miners has my head spinning. fired my second bullet on EGO, a longer term hold for me.

  9. very healthy consolidation in miners and may not like it.....but I do...

  10. the only issue i see with EGO, is its weekly chart doesnt look too healthy yet, it could have a ways to go lower, but i have will have another buy point targeted. i am in it for the long term.

  11. miners close green today and youre settin a higher low......evidence intermediate uptrend is intact from 5/13 low

  12. Yemeni Prez injured.....puttin weekend fear trade in play on commods and PMs

  13. Paulson was trapped in that chinese stock....wonder if he had to sell some of his EGO hehehhehe

  14. its funny, EGO respected its May,17th low of $14.76. hopefully that was its final retest, and all well, for its next move upwards.

  15. Kli, you state that there is a disconnect between metals and us$. ok, I do see it in the charts, but why? Even bigger question to me is how can US$ fall and SPY fall at the same time? I thought there was arbitrage in this. Does this portend a market rally, or a $ rise?

  16. and as I typed that, $ went down, SPY flew up. :) At least something makes sense.

  17. Yemen breaking out into civil heard it here

  18. ken will answer in a bit on the run

  19. Ken it portends what it IS. The headline gold and silver price has a negative impact on the fiat currency devaluation scam. If you don't have CONfidence in your paper then you have a defacto run on your fiat. That is why JPM has naked shorts on gold and silver. The miners are an arb play with the hedges....I could care less in the short term what they do with the miners. This is an accumulation......give it time to play out....just have a core

  20. europe is green..will it happen here!

    bought alth

    watching CPRX to see if it breaks 52 wk high of 1.54 and holds, no purchase just watching...
    float is low, fidelity owns 12%

  21. chuck didn't you read the blog lol.... CNBC will have their octagon going full blast before the numbers come out and if they are "better than estimates" a quick pump of the futures should ensue. If they are worse than expected then a red opening with a nice short squeeze later in the morning can be expected.

  22. ten year treas....... 3.01%....hehehehhe.....

  23. Homer,

    Saw your post, you checked in, nice. Today I am busy with other business I need to take care of this afternoon, market is behaving as I expected it, no surprises.

  24. joe
    nice video on lph at i think i will buy

  25. hehehe...mornin Joe.....

  26. When asked about the recent downdraft in the metals Embry stated, “I think it just smacks of desperation. There is no reason silver should drop over a dollar in the access market on Wednesday, I mean that’s just JP Morgan trying to protect their ass as far as I’m concerned.

    So this will run its course, and I noticed Turk said in his (KWN) blog that it could get down to $35 and I have no problem with that, I mean it’s just all noise here. It (silver) is just rebuilding its base for the next move, and the next move I think is going to be huge in both silver and gold. I think silver will easily take out $50 and gold will probably hit Sinclair’s long awaited $1,650 and go right through it like a hot knife through butter.”

    When asked if this could be a big summer for gold and silver Embry replied, “Without question. One of the reasons I think so, aside from the obvious fundamentals which are screaming that people should be buying gold and silver, the other aspect is the remarkably negative sentiment. It’s shocking actually, considering what’s going on...

    “I have to give the other side (manipulators) credit. They somehow have a good percentage of the populace worried about this bubble aspect which is completely false. Gold and silver are the furthest thing from a bubble, what’s in a bubble is US bonds.”

  27. Phil's "must hold" levels.

    As I type this, only the S&P and Nasdaq are above (just barely) the "must hold" levels.
    The Dow, NYSE & Russell 2000 have fallen though.

    Typically, Phil would be concerned if 3 out of 5 fail, and that is what we have now. Also, he holds the NYSE & Russell in high regard as leading indicators.

    Unless we have a late day rally, I would be concerned that further correction could occur.

    I will see what he write this weekend.

    CRYP continues to climb. There are posts on the Yahoo message board that more mutual fund/insider shares have been bought. However, I could not confirm the source.

  28. Doc,

    Thousand hills limited has been purchasing shares of CRYP. they own about 20% now. here is the link

  29. Rudemood,
    It is nice to have something green on a day such as this.
    At present (3:28 EST), all 5 indices support levels have failed.

  30. Doc,

    i hear you. CRYP has been interesting, Amaya Gaming seemed to jump out of the mix weeks ago when they purchased a small gaming company, but it really didnt affect the price action of CRYP. Thousand Hills has been buying the shares up at a price of $1.77. no guarentee of a buyout, but it seems promising something is going on. shares are getting scarce at lower prices it seems.

  31. consolidation/accumulation continues.....all healthy......

  32. If you take out us$ drop effect on silver, silver went down today from kitco data.

    PZG went up, we need Joe in the office to pound it lower.

  33. Ponzi support placed on the back burner for the next week as the big and mighty meet to formulate new ways to fleece the sheep at next weeks Bilderberg annual meeting. If you were unlucky and not invited or happen to not own a Swiss chalet nearby, Wyoming is always a good substitute with all those loose sheep roaming about looking for a little love.

    Good news for the peasants is the S&P might be allowed to go below 1275 which means great buying opportunities for heavily shorted Chinese stocks like LDK. Decisions, decisions, when to catch the knife? daily RSI below 20 or wait until MACD turns. Not sure if it hits Joe's 5 but anything can happen to encourage QE3 and watering down sovereign currencies further.

  34. QE3???? "We don't need no stinking QE3"....Ben Bernanke testimony Dec 6 2011 in front of the Congressional subcomitte on lynching.......

  35. Don't ya just love a great show!

  36. am i being paranoid, or does a big world news event always take place on sunday night to move the markets. it seems like it is purposely choreographed to do just that. i wonder what it will be this time.

    anybody paying attention to m. armstongs June 13th turn date? is he saying the market tops or bottems at that point? if the trend changes, is he saying the market is heading for the 2009 lows? i have read his articles but i cant seem to figure out where the market is in his cycle. when i analyze it , it looks like the mkt should be bottemed by this date, if that is the case, the market has a long ways to go down by june 13th, and if june 13th is turn date, does it mean the mkt will turn up from a bottem or turn down from a top. i know this doesnt really mean anything, but i was wondering if one of you guys could interpret what he is saying. thank you.

  37. Martin Armstrong is a person that should be listened guess is Yemen is breaking down into full revolt and spill over into SA

  38. There's still justice for the little Guy......... hehehe

  39. Rude....most major events are manipulated in terms of their impact on markets....for instance negative news is held until friday evening to be released for its effects to be washed over the weekend dead news cycle. Resolution of negative events is then manufactured before the markets open overseas on Sunday eve.....its been going on that way in earnest now for several years...

  40. Keep accumulating FCEL on any weakness guys, hope market really tanks next week. The contract they got is a major deal for them. Red, you might want to start thinking about FCEL as well.

  41. This lightened up my day.


  43. There is a time and place for everything, sometimes due to specific company problems, sector problems, overall market conditions it's safe to short or stay away from certain stocks and sectors for a while and then comes a time that specific companies within sectors have a price that makes risk/reward interesting and especially if company gets contracts and that means any weakness in the stock price should not be dealt as a fear sign or time to stay away but to take advantage of a gift. I do not care if market takes down FCEL close to $1 or even below that, FCEL as a company is starting to show me some promise.

  44. FCEL smells like its getting ready for the "pump"

  45. Joe,

    I have read the opinions on this board concerning FCEL and it was nice to see how people approach a stock on a fundamental basis. your foward looking approach of the potential of FCEL is very interesting. there is a reason you are a successful trader, you eveidentally can filter out the noise and see the bigger picture. me, i am still trying to find my way, sometimes the noise of where the direction the mkt as a whole is going, affects my trading in the sense, i might be apphrehensive to pull the trigger on a stock i think is undervalued or sell a winner too early, because my mind is telling the whole mkt is going to pullback. i am learning to filter some of the noise, and am trying to shed some of my sheep skin. disclosure, i didnt jump on board with FCEL mainly because i dont like buying a position into earnings. though its balance sheet is iffy, it seems the direction of the companys earnings most likely will improve with each quarter. FCEL is on my radar monday, it should be interesting to see what happens after it reports.

  46. "its been going on that way in earnest now for several years."

    it really has, it amazing isnt it. just like the bin laden deal, it gets announced sunday night. perfect timing, wouldnt you say. something concrete should be put in place for greece sunday night. i am not complaining, the timing just makes me chuckle.

  47. Rude - I discussed the PI cycle some time back. So you may find this to be of interest.

    Inlet (aka Roger)

  48. This comment has been removed by the author.

  49. Inlet,

    thanks ,i will read it. greatly appreciated. hey, just a side note. i took my 3 year old daughter to the bank with me to deposit money, and she wanted a lolly pop. the bank teller at Soverign Bank, said they dont have lolly pops anymore, and they wont be getting anymore again. how times have changed. cheap bastards, haha.

  50. Inlet,

    just read your link, that answered my questions. very interesting indeed as is the June 13th turn date. it will be interesting to see how this plays out. i must say, i am concerned. $10 an hour job creation cant be good for anybody in the long term. peace.

  51. "my guess is Yemen is breaking down into full revolt and spill over into SA "


    do you think that is why Goldman Sacs abrubtly changed there view on oil, and said it is going to $150, because they believe that will be the case?, unrest in the middle east seems to be the only logical catylsyst for oil to get that high, since it seems the world economic outlook doesn't seem as bright.

  52. GS seldom does anything abruptly....I can think of a number of reasons they changed their view on oil and probably still don't have the correct answer

  53. Rude - as to Jun 13 date not sure how Armstrong comes up with that exact date. I believe it is Kress who claims most of the downside of a longer cycle is in the last 12.5% of the down leg. For PI the up leg is 4.3 years and the down leg is 4.3 years (52 months). And 12.5% of 52 months is 6.45 months. From mid June 6.45 months puts you into end of 2011 or early 2012 (when the PI Cycle should bottom).

  54. inlet,

    thankyou. that seems to make more sense. just looking a m.armstrong's turn date of June 13, i didnt know if he meant the mkt was going to have significant top, and the mkt was going to roll over from that point or if June 13th was going to be a significant ending pattern (bottem). reguardless of the turn date, i understand what you have stated and i greatly appreciate it. the way the mkt is positioned it seems it is set up for your time scenerio. whether it happens or not is another thing. thanks again.

  55. "GS seldom does anything abruptly"

    are you a lawyer? you sure zero in on verbage. cant argue with you on that comment. haha. and yea, i guess Goldman could have changed there view for many reasons., possibly cause they had just got finished placing another bet. haha.

  56. GS is the operating arm of the cabal.....ANYTHING that emanates from GS is from the very highest authority and Must be cleared

  57. Anyone want to give me their analysis of the $HUI daily.....hehhehe....and your directions short term

  58. Rude - re weekends, you ain't paranoid. I've always hated the weekends when holding an ultra ETF (no longer play them). Some always seemed to happen to kill me Monday morning.

  59. "Anyone want to give me their analysis of the $HUI daily.....hehhehe....and your directions short term"

    hopefully, backtest of the 200day and start of wave 3 up. haha

  60. On many miners, I see bearish 5/10 period daily crosses, but just barely. Looks sketchy.

  61. Only thing holding the miners up was silver, only thing holding silver up was dollar down, so we look at the euro. The chart patterns for miners on Friday mimicked the SPY, Except in amplitude. Do we want to rely on the dollar for a bull move? I think SPY goes down

  62. hey doomers...looks like greece the wheel next is out....euro climbs..stocks up...enough shorts in to take it higher? I have no clue...but I did look at SMN chart today and it looks as though the 20 went above the 50 for first time since 07/10

  63. yeh chuck ....either the charts get some rocket fuel in um fast or they all turn south......


    old indian learning english many moons ago say-

    Fuk US Him A sshole

    what a mess...lies are all the rage...

  65. Love the Kaiser report...did she mention the smoot hawley tarrif?

    anyone, anyone?

    Now one of the primary reasons Greece is in more trouble than they should be...Goldman Sachs


    100 billion here, 100 billion there
    digits are always large in a fake world...

    Fluffer needed..extend and pretend experience required...

  67. Greece citizens will not take this lying down...heck give them a cigarette and an expresso and they will rage for days...

  68. We're about a year behind them...but the real question is, when to get back into EUO?

  69. honestcreditguy,

    yeah, that japan nuclear crisis is a mess. makes me wonder if alot more people in japan are exposed to contaminated drinking water. i dont think we will ever know that answer.

  70. Editor’s note: Izzy’s article was originally published a few years back, when silver was at $9+/oz and before the recent run-up in silver to $16. True then, moreso today. Consider this: we have already experienced Izzy’s STAGE ONE scenario (last year), get ready for STAGE TWO.

    By Israel Friedman

    (This very bullish opinion was written by silver enthusiast Israel Friedman, age 73, a friend and mentor to Theodore Butler. Mr. Friedman has owned and studied silver for 30 years.)

    I hope that the sell-off in the metals made you think about the way you perceive gold and silver as investments. This wasn’t just a correction, this was a slaughter by the paper short sharks who call themselves commercials.

    Yes, COMEX Is Rigged
    Mr. Butler wrote to the authorities in detail and asked why these so-called commercials can break the law. But up to now, he has not received any answers. I am in the camp that believes you can’t change the paper market to be honest. But that doesn’t mean you can’t do anything about it, because you can.

    To those people who speculate in the paper market, I say you’d be better off giving your money to charity than give it to the paper sharks.

    This sell-off brings two conclusions. One, that gold and silver don’t have monetary value, because money value doesn’t change so much in value in such a short period of time. Gold and silver aren’t insurance for anything, not for inflation, not for a collapsing dollar and they are simply controlled metals. Two, the naked short sellers aren’t afraid of anybody. The users are also controlled by the commercials and aren’t buying at dumping prices. They will regret not buying at the low prices, as they need silver to live.

    So, the conclusion is that paper trading is dictating the prices, and if you think for one moment that they will not take your money when you trade paper, forget it.

    Should You Buy Precious Metals?
    Not to lose your investment money and participate in the future bull market in silver is the most important thing, and you have to choose the right course to achieve that. What kind of decision do you have to make to buy metals? You have to ask yourself some questions.

    One, will any of the metals be in short supply?

    Two, if I invest money can I make a minimum of 5 times my investment?

    Three, can I hold for the long term?

    Lastly, do I have extra cash to buy with?

    If you can answer yes on all four questions, in my opinion you can buy. After you answer yes, the question then becomes should you buy gold or silver? I am a silver sympathizer, and in my opinion, only in silver can you have a shortage situation.

    Gold no.

    Only a shortage in physicals can bring high prices and defeat the paper market and force the naked short sellers into bankruptcy.

    Price Points and the Coming Silver Squeeze
    To define what I mean by shortage in silver, I say categorically that I’m not interested in the level of world inventories of silver, COMEX inventories and the guru’s stories. I am only interested to know if the users are receiving their shipments of silver on time. When a delay of silver shipments occurs, and affects most the users, I will consider this as a shortage.

  71. Let’s see the stages of a shortage.
    1) Pre-shortage – the users will have to wait 3 to 6 weeks extra for shipments. Then the prices can rise to $20-30/oz.
    2) Shortage – the users will wait an extra 6 weeks to 4 months for silver. Then the prices can rise above the old all-time highs of $50/oz.
    3) Super shortage – the users have to wait more than 4 months for their silver shipments. The price will range from $100 to prices you won’t believe.

    If this last scenario occurs, and gold has plenty of supply, the price of silver, at a minimum, will equal the price of gold. And my crystal ball tells me that silver can exceed the price of gold by a great deal.

    You should be asking, how did I calculate the prices for the different stages?

    My calculation is very conservative. I only take into consideration the future deficits between the producers and users, which is running currently at around 50 million ounces annually. I also take into consideration that private investors have 400 million ounces in bullion and coins that they will sell in some stages.

    -In stage one, pre-shortage, I think investors will be willing to sell 50 million ounces at a price between $20 to $30.
    -Stage two, shortage, investors will sell 200 million ounces between $30 and $100.
    -And the remaining 150 million ounces will be sold in stage three, super shortage and the prices will be truly shocking.

    These prices are very conservative, in my opinion, because they don’t take into consideration the naked shorts, new investments, or those banks worldwide that sold silver certificates without real silver backing, only derivatives backing.

    Commercial Silver Users (Manufacturers)
    The users will be the key for the future price of silver. No user wants to stop production, and will pay any price for silver if that means staying in business. For you the investor, who wants to know when stage one will start, my answer is simple – not me or anyone will know in advance when it will start. No one will ring a bell.

    In my opinion, all of these stages will happen in silver, and super stage three will take years to develop. I ask you, do you believe that, when stage three comes, you will benefit if you hold a paper-leveraged contract? The Exchange will change the rules; including changing margins, and maybe by canceling the delivery process, and you will be left with a paper only contract.

    The conclusion is, if you believe in a shortage situation, you will be secure only if you buy physical.

    The Best Kind of Silver to Own for Stage 3
    The only question is what to buy? Because I believe that at some point we will arrive at stage three, super shortage, when prices will be over the old all-time highs and will fluctuate by dollars per day, no investor will have the money to buy 100 or 1000 ounce bars.

    For the small to medium investor, I say buy U.S. Silver Eagles.

    And for rich investors buy Eagles and bars. I like Eagles because I think, at some point, the Mint will stop minting them and they will develop a numismatic and scarcity premium. Plus, in my opinion, they are the most beautiful coins in the world, and when I hold one they make me feel good about America.

    Dance to the Bank
    If my vision comes true, and we arrive at the super shortage stage, the Congress will ask a lot people hard questions, and the questions will be how we came to this situation. And Mr. Butler’s past complaints will be checked.

    Physical investment is the safest way to riches, in my opinion. When the naked shorts go to bankruptcy courts, including the big sharks, you will dance to the bank.

    Remember, do your homework before you invest. Cover all the angles, but don’t speculate, only invest in physical silver with free cash money. And take in consideration you can buy silver 30% cheaper than a month ago. And this is a fantastic, fantastic, fantastic opportunity.

    Good luck and remember the modern gold is silver.
    Israel Friedman

  72. "I ask you, do you believe that, when stage three comes, you will benefit if you hold a paper-leveraged contract? The Exchange will change the rules; including changing margins, and maybe by canceling the delivery process, and you will be left with a paper only contract."

    i guess this quote sums it up in a nutshell. hmm, changing margins, sounds like an interesting concept.