Friday, June 17, 2011

PREPARATION


Just a brief note while I am on the run. Working nights so will not be on until afternoon. As a reader of this blog you must be aware there is a reason that the PTB is kicking the can down the road. Its not very complex. Simply put, they can't fix the "problem" and they want to buy as much time as possible to "find a solution" even though they know there is not "a solution". In time we will have the solution. A lot of pain. Forced austerity. Yes, that's right all of you that have decried higher taxes will get them. All of you that believe your government pensions are safe are going to discover they are going to take a hit. Everyone of you with 401Ks had better think long and hard whether that money market when you go in cash in it can withstand a systemic liquidity event. So do you really want to go to "cash" in your 401K if the SHTF??

In true liquidity events where counter-parties are put at risk with no transactions possible the "system" seizes up. It has never happpened on a global scale and I doubt that it happens this time, but it is definitely a possiblity. We have never been so globally tied together as we are today. We were not this intertwined in the 30s and this poses a "systemic risk" of unimagineable consequences. I hope that the PTB can stave off this outcome but I know the CONfidence game is everything and I wonder if that can be maintained when they begin flushing this monster down the toilet for its Supercycle cleaning. These type of events can provoke unpredictable outcomes and the doomsayers advocating stores of food and water certainly have validity. As far guns and ammunition I wouldn't go overboard. Spend your money on food.

The market is building energy for a nice rebound. Will we reach new highs and totally destroy the "non-member" bears? Maybe. This market has become more treacherous and is going to begin the process of destroying the remaining participants. Miners are oversold and now need to bounce and they should get a tradable move soon.

Physical metal is your only secure "investment" so play in the casino at your own risk. If you are not spending time with your family then you are wasting precious time. gl gang.

20 comments:

  1. Brian,

    Another beautiful day in the land of ORS, no need to cover short yet, heheeeee!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWhInhE6emE

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  2. Kli, Joe, Chuck and the rest of the gents...Happy Fathers day to all....NGSX heading below the $2.00 mark (come on $1.88 if I am lucky)...RNN making a move again..

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  3. Brian,

    When the tape turns up with good volume, that would be time to cover which means rather than playing pure guessing game, I watch the action, MMs and hedge funds to see when they turn it, I do not even try to predict daily prices since no one can and that's fools game, right now stops being taken out. I am going to start covering some not because it might not go lower , just to make sure I do not have to do it all at once especially because this puppy has low float which means ups and downs can be violent in either direction and for those who play heavy, cover in chunks.

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  4. Brian,

    In regard to NGSX, the same approach, if they took it down to your desired price level, watch the volume as well before buying, do not forget, it's not just price, it's price + volume which should be your indicator especially when you play it long and not shorting.

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  5. I am not shorting NGSX because the volume is low in a low float stock, when I see tape turn with heavier volume to upside I enter, otherwise I stay away.

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  6. Brian,

    I trade ATPG a lot, volume is nice and action in both side of the coin is nice. Today was a good scalp in the long side. ATPG has strong support around $14 and lately was taken down from 18 to 15 and bounce was due.

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  7. Joe,
    Really appreciate the advise and all your knowledge. You are going to save me many years of trial and error (and $$$). My ears are always open....thank you

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  8. Brian,

    Next yr you need to learn how to short if you still want to remain in the market and play, deflationary cycle is going to start picking up next yr which means it would be excellent time to short the pigs especially high priced nasdaq stocks. Playing short indexes is not really the way to maximize profit because of their decay, it's more profitable to learn how to short individual stocks especially when BEAR comes back hard.

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  9. Brian, meanwhile from S&P perspective, see my post last night.

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  10. Red,

    LDK at 7.50 today was getting out of hand so it was time to spank it, heheheeeeeeeee!

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  11. Kliguy & All,
    I am an avid reader of the blog here. (Just Love It..Thank You Kli). ...But, I am nowhere near being in your collective league for trading. I own physical and an expanding basket of mostly junior silver & gold miners. I am trying to get a handle on when to go in more on my juniors as I of course want the most shares for the money. You guys discuss the higher level plays mostly so I wondered what your thoughts are on buying more juniors right now. I know you advocate keeping some cash on the side in case a better buy comes along but does that apply equally to the juniors as it does the bigger boyz? ....I trade (very little) and have mostly a buy & hold attitude with my juniors. I have very limited fiat and want to maximize my buys but I don't want to let a little thing like limited resources keep me out of the miners altogether. :D ....I accumulate physical and juniors as steadily as I can.

    Again, thank you all for all you are doing to enlighten the rest of us.

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  12. Edit To My Above Post:

    I know you guys DO trade some junior plays as well ...but mine are the junior-est of the juniors ...plays like Silvermex & Canadian Zinc, etc ..are what I 'collect'. ...I figure some of these will do very well ...when/if the time comes to send metals skyward.

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  13. PZG had an interesting finish Joe, think that's going to run? I never got filled in the mid 2's (waaaambulance).

    Is CFW still on anyone's radar? Took a little beating today.

    Hi Ginger...you don't want advice from me I traded out of a core for profit, tried to get back in, got stuck, traded out for slight loss, watched them run again just after getting out, what a mess. Recently got some SSRI and SLW watched that get to +30% and now even, still holding as I would like something in the form of miners. Seeing if there's a decent re-entry though we have held a decent amount of GLD/PHYS and a little PSLV through it all. I don't want to talk for Joe but I believe except for PZG, he believes other sectors are more worthy of the trade. I believe as you do that we may still see Gold and possibly other metals fly later on.

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  14. Sorry I meant didn't get more filled in the mid 2's as I spread the purchase out and only clipped a little at 2.65. At least I got some!

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  15. Homer,

    Both from seasonal perspective and also with the recent down turn in the market mid July to begining of the August is when miners usually bottom out which means that time frame is a good time to get back in miners, there are of course exceptions and that's if small cap miners hit a good production mine and then of course all bets are off. In the case of PZG shorts are covering which means some sort of good news might be underway, you are making money on that one bud and that's great, keep your eye on it next week and see whether gets to 4 and pass, if it does then let it ride, if it retraces back to 3.50 then take some and I mean some profit and see if you can buy back shares you sold closer to 3 or below, either way seems like you are in good shape and today your buddy helped you in the upside.

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  16. Thanks from me, too Joe...nice squeeze there at the end on pzg...bought some gpl too...holding my core of the others, dumped tlr and gdx awhile ago...Happy Father's Day to all the men who are fathers here...Best, N

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  17. homerrulesall,
    Thank you for the response. I need to learn how to be a better trader. Scarier though than just buying and holding. Of course not as much short term profit potential from just holding though. Sounds like you actually have done pretty well. I wish you continued success!

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  18. LOL - Joe, thanx man.

    Hey Ginger - could be doing much better but fear rules many trades. Ask your question again during the week when its more active here...

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  19. long time listener, fist time caller. I just wasted 30 minutes trying to post this jibberish on fucking yahoo skf. fuck those fucking assholes.

    europe: get the marshmellows ready

    two excellent stories this morning. First, from zerohedge, CDS exposure to greece is a mere $5B

    http://www.zer0hedge.com/article/debunking-some-myths-about-greek-cds-contagion-threat

    second, and most likely most importantly, on Mish's site linking to the Telegraph, european banks are running out of cash
    http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/06/uk-banks-abandon-eurozone-greek-pm.html
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8584442/UK-banks-abandon-eurozone-over-Greek-default-fears.html

    I assume we are at most weeks away from greece's government collpsing and most likely leaving the EU, printing its own currency, and leaving god knows who in charge of the country, probably the military. The entire EU begins a horrific meltdown at that point. the ECB starts printing euros faster than Ben can print dollars, liquidity is vaporized in a matter of months at most. Show me another likely alternative, I'd love to hear it.

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