Thursday, June 30, 2011

PULL THE PLUG?


Or keep printing. NO choice for the helicopter man. Monetization of the entire world underway. Greek the Greeks and let's move on to the next leak. Those Ouzo lickers aren't up for game but they do play a tough game of badmitton with tear gas canisters. Keep focus on the game. Air had to come out of the commodities but the game has not changed. Kick the can down the road as long as it doesn't get so heavy it breaks your foot.

There is still no clear evidence the PMs or Miners have bottomed so don't throw into that trade quite yet. I'll hold my core and take a little off if it starts turning off the 50ma around 532 on the $HUI.....but to get bullish the $HUI has to clear 552 and HOLD. Then I may add on pullbacks...Right now its patience. No rush to play in the casino. Let the traders on the blog pull the flesh from the carcass in this meat grinder.

On the news front we are getting job loss now in the Wall Street firms as trading and QE begins to wane. The next few years will be brutal for the Wall Street firms but a lot of the last scraps from the taxpayer were picked to give them the last three years. I hope they enjoyed their last feed.

Soon the reality of the Kondratieff Winter will begin to penetrate into all sectors of our psyche and denial will become acceptance. The Pos will continue their Kabuki theater with fewer and fewer believers to entertain. As for as investing you make your own decisision. If you believe that Ben has to keep monetization going here then you know what's going to happen.

from Jim Willie

31 comments:

  1. Random thought. If the Euro goes to complete crap before the Dollar get's inflated away, perhaps we can keep some type of reserve currency status? probably not. I bet China gets it. I imagine that if the rest of the world goes bad before we do that it somehow helps us; like a game of who busts out first.

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  2. Hi Joe,

    Just got in three Droke books, so far the first one is excellent, thank you!

    Was wondering since you're a trader and you trade short term price moves (for at least a part of your portfolio that is, as I'm sure you may have some long term investment positions as well) why is it that options is not your game?

    It seems to me like you make a decision on the direction price is going to move, that you make that decision with earned confidence and that you have a high probability of being correct in those decisions - so wouldn't options trading turn your %5 move into a %25 move - the game is making $ no?

    I understand not all securities are optionable and that those that are but are illiquid with large spreads are 'no bueno,' but for the ones that are liiquid enough I'm referring to - like SLV, as I remember you mentioned you shorted shares last week.

    (I don't mean to imply your gains are only %5 just using that # in the context of framing my question)

    tx,

    victor(y)

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  3. joe,
    Whats you take on ALAN today????

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  4. Victory,

    I prefer to play the real time tape with heavy volume and at times 5, 6, or even 10 stocks in a day and the profit is well justified not to change my strategy. I have nothing against option trading, just more comfortable doing the old fashioned ups and downs hits. As far as shorting silver I like AGQ even better than SLV.

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  5. I will make a guess about options and Joe can tell me I am wrong >)

    Options have can be manipulated and controlled such that you loose all. The counter party to the option is usually the MM. MM will take profit on the spread and delta hedge the option such that Joe's option buy doesn't move the stock.
    Options do not have the liquidity needed for big positions.

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  6. Brian,

    Shorted it at 2.65 and covered around 2.30, waiting to see if the gap from yesterday's closing of 2.17 fills or not and whether they keep it above $2 or not, Watching the volume as well. Played RENN today as well.

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  7. Ken,

    yes, not doing options gives me more control and the approach I have is if strategy is not broken, do not try to change it or fix it. It works fine for me. I like to see the flow of money real time whether it's short or long and then make my move.

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  8. Brian,

    The MMs used the old trick in the book on ALAN today which is gap the stock up at the open way above yesterday's closing which meant hammer time and saw volume pick up on the down side from 2.65/2.70 which meant scalp time in the short side.

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  9. Interesting, GS & JPM turned the silver down eventhough overall market indexes are up, let's see if it's the start of silver roll over again or not, what a beautiful game.

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  10. well, silver did hit my target to add a short position. 35.50 would have been to obvious for me, so anything above 35 was good.

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  11. I so much wanted to short RENN today. But no shares available. bummer

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  12. GENE and RITT big winners today so far..

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  13. Ken,

    Did not short RENN today, played the gap up this morning and got out, shorting YOKU.

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  14. YOKU, yet another hard to borrow stock. someday I will open an IB account. you can short anything with them it seems.

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  15. V, however was very short-able :)

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  16. YOKU just looks like it has to much support in the $33 area. looks like chop fest to me, though I do see a large red volume earlier.

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  17. Ken,

    Good observation, saw the volume and price turn and covered at 32.90.

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  18. Ken,

    QIHU was another good short today.

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  19. Ken,

    The pattern of behavior for LDK lately is swing between 6.80 and 7.50, let's see when that pattern changes.

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  20. Keep your eyes on NEWN...still trying to figure out if it's RTO...

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=NEWN+Interactive#symbol=NEWN;range=1y

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  21. I need to find a way to spot some of these plays faster. Since I haven't, I am usually doing sympathy plays. Right now, I have one of my screens set up with various baskets of stocks that I have preselected.

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  22. LDK looks to break up out of channel on daily. has good volume, getting tight bb's. right here is not a good entry, needs to break 7.53ish and hold or go to 7 for lower risk entry.

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  23. Chuck,

    The answer to your question on whether NEWN is an RTO or not is YES, here is the list of the small-cap chinese stocks that went thru Reverse merger and you know what that means, Ken, and Brian bookmark this link , it gives you names of companies in alphabetical order so you can keep an eye on them:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-22/table-of-chinese-reverse-merger-companies-listed-on-u-s-stock-exchanges.html?cmpid=yhoo

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  24. Chuck,

    By the way main competitor of NEWN is CBAK, much larger and cheaper in price, more employees as well, check it out.

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  25. thanks joe!

    CLSN is perking up....buying on pullbacks...

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CLSN+Interactive#symbol=clsn;range=2y;compare=;indicator=sma(50,100,200)+macd+stochasticfast+volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;

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  26. looks like I messed up closing out CLSN the other day. Up with volume.

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  27. Ken, 3.40 is big resistance, lets see if it stays above at close.. if so this could run...

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  28. heavy volume on SPY end of day. They really want people to think their 401k's are great this quarter

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  29. good morning all....i hope you had a productive trading day...my days and nights are reversed so I hope you have a good day tomorrow trading....I doubt I will participate until next tuesday....btw the post will be up for tomorrow...in about eight hours. PS.....sad news about Timmy leaving.....how will he be replaced.......I imagine ...quickly..shouldn't be too hard to find another warm body

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  30. $HUI needs to turn south in the next day or two...will break the upper trend line if it goes through 530 and holds....if it climbs higher then a long term up channel (new) will be formng....

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  31. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/01/nyregion/strauss-kahn-case-seen-as-in-jeopardy.html/?pagewanted=2&_r=3&smid=tw-nytimes

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