Friday, June 10, 2011

STAGFLATION!!

Or the proverbial "Rock and a Hard Place". That's where our economy is. Trapped...like a rat on a sinking ship. Its goin' down! Ben knows it too. But he has two more years in his term and he was brought in here for a reason. He is a Keynesian specialist. His PhD was largely studying the Great Depression and make no mistake this is what he was groomed for. The PTB had their eyes on him for years. This cycle has been coming for years and its going to play out just as designed. These are no accidents. They are not random events that occur as a result of "unplanned events with unintended consequences". These are economic cycles designed to benefit the few at the expense of everyone else. That is the game. That has been the game for hundreds of years and will remain the game. It is so written.

Now back to the game. No short term crystal ball so you are at the mercy of the markets today. I told you we would be in a prolonged consolidation in the precious metals and miners. This is the fourth month of the miners correction and its been very impressive. If you have kept your patience and not expanded your miners core until the whites of their eyes have been seen then I congratulate you. My patience caught me leaning last week and it was costly. Fortunately I'm still standing but the six day drop was impressive. The charts say we get a bounce if the $HUI hits 490 so I'll stay tuned. Other than some day trading attempts this casino is to dangerous to do anything other than watch your core right now.

Martin Armstrong's call of June 13 is still in play that should be interesting next week. The confluence of several events makes next week a great week to sit on your hands.

I still like EUO here and YCS as currency plays. Just don't go crazy. gl all

74 comments:

  1. Heads up...I ment'd BCRX yesterday...

    bid moving up in pre-trading...low float..

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  2. Reduced sensitivity seen to Roche's Tamiflu, GSK's Relenza

    * Affects 30 pct N.Australia samples, 10 pct from Singapore

    LONDON, June 10 (Reuters) - A novel variant of swine flu has emerged in Asia with a genetic adaptation giving some resistance to Roche's (ROG.VX) Tamiflu and GlaxoSmithKline's (GSK.L) Relenza, the two mainstay drugs used to tackle the disease.

    Researchers said more than 30 percent of H1N1 swine flu infection samples from northern Australia, and more than 10 percent of those in Singapore, collected during the early months of 2011 had mildly reduced sensitivity to the two drugs.

    There was no significant reduction in sensitivity to peramivir, an experimental flu drug from BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (BCRX.O

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  3. take that back..might not be a mover...

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  4. anyone think FCEL has bottemed? the risk/reward looking pretty good at this point to take a shot. might have to take a decent nibble here

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  5. you can have a position here...but would not add until money flows turn pos

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  6. kli,

    thanks, interesting day already, alot of time left in the day for a reversal if the mkt can find some support

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  7. rude...posting on blog but not doing any close trades.....not able to watch the market close enough today to trade....keep me alerted gang here if any action worth a look at

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  8. Happy friday all...Kli, Joe, chuck, rude, sista etc....been looking under rocks and havent found anything except somebody's trash...still in play ORS....bought RCON this AM...chuck take a look...

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  9. actually the symbol i ment'd at top of thread is doing well..and volume coming in...check this out..looks like its time to buy or wait until after opex...
    http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=BCRX&ty=c&ta=0&p=m

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  10. Brian,

    Look at SQNS after it was pushed up from 9 to 19, it's been a great short, I told kli when it was at 9 that this puppy is going to 19 and after that they will short it heavy and possibly all the way down to 9.15 which is where the gap is.

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  11. Brian,
    China plays are no longer in my world...they are being shorted like joe pesci...danger lurks within...

    I hope they touch 1265 today....

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  12. Rudemood,

    The next support for FCEL is 1.35, if broken which I hope it does then it can be taken down to 1.10. I am not shorting FCEL, waiting to buy and go long on that one. If you are not a good timer, then buy some and average down, this is not a $8 or $6 stock which then would have had more possible downside. The severe downside will take FCEL to low 0.90s, so risk/reward at this point is not bad for those who can wait and accumulate.

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  13. If 1250 on S&P does not hold then 1165 would be real possibility, take it one support at a time. This downturn is very healthy and needed for the market so big boyz can start another squeeze, the lower the market goes the better.

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  14. 98cents waiting waiting....just a touch thaz all

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  15. Inlet,

    keep your eye on FCEL the next couple of weeks for entry position, this would not be a quick scalp , it would be buy and accumulate for a run to $2 or over but first comes first which is monitoring the down side. It's a good idea to add a chart on your blog and keep daily track of stock movement.

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  16. http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2011/06/10/ben-to-jamie-stfu/

    major news outlet using stfu in headline....classic...

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  17. Brian,

    ORS is a SWEET pastry, heheheeeeee!

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  18. In the abscence of major news on FCEL, pay attention to daily volume especially in the down side, once the daily volume starts shrinking in the down side, use that for accumulation. Right now MMs are taking stops out and once most retail traders are out of it then they will start pushing it back up, do not even guess when that would be, just monitor it and then react.

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  19. caught an ego scalp.....the wonders of mobile technology...hehehe

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  20. That would be sweet to have to have charts of some of the picks here.

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  21. all Re; FCEL

    Nobody likes the double bottom or re test of the 10 week wedge break out?

    Kinda looks like the miners charts.

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  22. Joe.....why do I have a feeling the knives are getting sharpend for ORS.......based on your post I just took the profit and am waiting on the sidelines......nice...sending you a bottle I mean case of wine from the great napa valley sir....

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  23. brian...remember what I ment'd other day on SRS..

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  24. Watching fcel closely, could use a good trade ;)

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  25. Seems like pzg hanging in...

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  26. Miners are not as bad as they could be. Perhaps some underlying strength.

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  27. Some of you traders check out STEC stock is up for week not alot and down a little today but Back in April 2 insiders bought around 5 million in stock lloks like a good safe trade....for some upside...anyways I am here to make some $$$$$ lol.....also sppi may have bottomed...

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  28. anyone take a look at that bcrx trade?

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  29. Chuck..contrary to your belief I bought SRS @ 14.35....I have a feeling you didnt pull the trigger????

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  30. ORS on the block.....look out fella's....

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  31. Surprised on miners as well.

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  32. brian,

    the MM's will try to shake you out of it...just add on the dips..
    hold it for a year and its a sure double..I know i'll here all about the decay etc....

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  33. Chuck.. the way housing prices are valued now with no future in sight that might be a x3..

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  34. brian...srs is commercial real estate...spg is key component...take some profit every once in a while on nice surge, then buy back in with bennie b beat downs..get into bcrx...short squeeze-plus news could be juicy.....

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  35. Jim Rogers was just on Fox Business. When asked for good investment opportunities he mentioned agriculture stocks and miners. For what its worth.

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  36. Back in 09 I played bcrx from 3 to 10....made some $$$$$$ but company is lazy mangement lazy....I have done alot of research on bcrx and think stock is a trade but that is it....Peramivir has been around a long time drug got EUA from fda back when swine flu was hot but do not buy unless some big out break occurs stock has been a bust for a while now..

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  37. dj, just in for trade..and your 3 to 10 could happen again...they have some news I posted at top..so playing on short squeeze...

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  38. http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/06/09/goldman-fined-10-million-over-trading-huddles/

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  39. everyone have a nice weekend....I'm sitting on a block of ice

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  40. Joe - tkx for the FCEL tip.

    I normally avoid penny stocks (ocasionally will buy under $5). I'll watch it, not sure I want to take a go at anything under $2. Yes, I know the leverage of cheap stocks. I also know (expenseive education) that leverage is a two edged sword. Hehehehe

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  41. Inlet,

    No BIAS remember? Money made sometimes comes from unexpected places, it's all about risk/reward, more expensive stocks in this environment can easily go thru sharp knife, it's called margin calls and then shorts can really create ulcers, FCEL has been around for a long time as a company and eventhough it's shares are not trading at $44 which used to do, due to recent events company is making progress which makes the current price real cheap. In 2008/2009 I told Kli to buy SLW at 2.75 which of course he did not listen, I know it's hard to change one's programming but some times it's necessary. My motto on going long has always been find dirt cheap, Heheeeeee!

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  42. I may get a chance to buy SLW again at 2.75.....hehehheheheh

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  43. kli,

    If by that time you have any money left, FEAR would have taken you to cleaners by then, it's not that simple to have NO EMOTION or bias in practice, hehehhhhhh!

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  44. Inlet how many stocks that we play here that are now 10- 30 were under 2 dollars in 2008

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  45. The good old lucent, one of the largest telecom companies in the world used to trade at $80 a share during 90s and droped to 0.57 in late 2002 before marching back up to $5 and take over by Alcatel. In the coming yrs the number of good companies going below $5 or $2 will increase, heheheeee! Couple of yrs ago, ALU droped to $1.

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  46. "If by that time you have any money left, FEAR would have taken you to cleaners by then, it's not that simple to have NO EMOTION or bias in practice, hehehhhhhh! "

    Joe,

    it sure isnt easy to have no emotion , i think if the support of spx1250 falls, then there might some wicked panic selling. thanks for the insight on FCEL, it on my watch list.

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  47. So what will be the catalyst for the market to start going up?
    The only thing I can think of is QE3, but I can't see that happening until August.

    I Joe even mentioned that actual fundamentals are coming into play. 2nd quarter numbers for many very important companies are going to suck. That isn't my bias speaking, I know a bit about some of these companies on the inside. They have had drops in revenue.
    I can see short term technical bounces, but it looks like a bleed down all summer long and a major decline. I keep reading about this-and-that support level, and if the market holds at each. Other than these very short technical bounces, why would they hold?

    I wouldn't mind being wrong on this.

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  48. Ken you are right but this has been developing all along just allowed to be "fudged" through a myriad of tools that companies can use.....to paint the illusion/delusion of CONfidence.

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  49. It really sound like what you are saying is that the market can turn positive when "they" want it to.....and that it is just a matter of at what level do they want it to stop going down and turn. IF that is what you are saying, then it goes to Joe's point of thinking like the big whale and understanding what they want. Other than forcing people out of positions for the banks gain and creating enough pain to require QE3, is there anything else they want at this point? And at what level doe they need things to drop. IF this is the case, it is clear that things will not turn around right now. Heck, they really do have all the way until August, The Fed Employee retirement fund gives them that.

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  50. Joe - not so much a bias as I operate at a slower pace than a shark like you. What is the benefit of being a bum if I have to watch the market like a hawk. My mid day nap is important to me. Hehehehe.

    Seriously, you have access to a lot more information than I so I operate within the parameters of the information (and the timeframe I receive it) available to me.

    You do this for the money, me I do it for the hell of it. Money is just how you keep score. Life is risky, the market not so much. If you ever signed divorce papers and saw half of everything go poof then you know what I mean. Hehehehe

    Us old folks don't move so fast any more. I am happy to do half a dozen profitable trades a week. :>)

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  51. Good example, I bought flotek (ftk) late 4/10 @2.16, panicked out at 2.50 and it is now 8.26 having run all the way up to 9.95...I liked it b/c actually believed in the profile. Still learning, will there be a market to trade when I finally get better? Good week-end to all.

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  52. Kli,

    what is the actual catylyst for miners to rise? is it fear of lack of supply of PM's, loss of confidence in paper currency, excess demand for PM's.? i have a core of PM's, but i am concerned what is going to happen to them if the dollar strengthens, without forgetting the fact that the mkt is melting down. i am wondering what you might think the turning point will be for miners, or is it just a dead trade for awhile. the EGO free fall, went down alot quicker than i would have imagined since its not even a heavily shorted position. its not the end of the world if EGO drops to $11.00, but if it does i highly doubt i would have the nerve to fire another bullet at it. i must say i am losing the PM's mind game.

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  53. rude that is always the game with the stocks....its a psychological game that in the BEAR of bears will test even the most skilled investor. Outguessing the ponzimaster is very difficult...My advice is to make sure you have at least 50% cash and a hedge like EUO. We should get a nice trading bounce in the next couple of days. Get out of some of your longs. You'll sleep better. My guess is when we get a bounce you won't sell any, but that is just a guess. Let me know if you sell some.

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  54. Red would you care to comment on kens point about their control

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  55. Kli,

    the day i sell some EGO and AUY will be the day you add to them, haha. i will look into EUO or UUP. i am 30% cash at the moment. i also own a partial position of LDK from buys of $6.25 and $6.60 and a small position of CRYP. EGO and AUY i will say have been a bit painful. my avr down on EGO at $14.90 hasnt worked out too well, haha. i will heed your advice and try to accumulate some more cash if the mkt gets a bounce. i hate to dump LDK, i like its valuation at this point, plus it held up very well during the mkt selloff today but i went a bit too strong on the miners. and am feeling the pain as a miner bagholder. thanks for the insight.

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  56. Here is a pretty crappy read
    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43352341/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/

    you probably don't need to waste your time, but I am fisking part of it here:

    "Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank, said strong corporate earnings and widespread economic growth, however slow, should lead to more gains in the coming months."
    STRONG EARNINGS AND GROWTH? SURE THING...hah
    "Anyone selling shares today has to be pricing in a recession," he said. Most economists expect slow growth but not a recession."
    UM.....HOW ABOUT A DEPRESSION?

    "Shares had bounced back Thursday, breaking six straight days of losses, after U.S. exports unexpectedly hit a record in April."
    I'M SURE EXPORTS ARE THE CAUSE...hah

    Ablin suggested that Friday's losses were partially driven by the Federal Reserve's unloading of millions in risky mortgage bonds onto the market. As big banks buy those securities, they dump assets such as stocks and high-yield corporate bonds.

    Karyn Cavanaugh, vice president and market strategist with ING Investment Management, advised investors to stick out the market's recent turbulence.

    "The market doesn't go up indefinitely; it's not a straight line and it does get choppy at times," she said. Cavanaugh said seven straight quarters of stronger-than-expected corporate earnings are a clear signal that the bull market will continue.
    THEY ARE NOT A SIGN THAT IT WILL CONTINUE, 2ND QTR COMES OUT IN AUGUST

    Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave a speech Tuesday in which he said the economy's greatest troubles -- high oil prices and supply chain disruptions from Japan -- would soon pass. Bernanke offered no hint of further help from the Fed and the stock market dropped as he spoke. The next day, stocks slipped again after a Federal Reserve report showed the economy slowed in New York, Chicago and other major metropolitan areas.



    The euro fell below its recent highs on signs that European policymakers have reached an impasse over how to handle Greece's drawn-out debt crisis.
    UM....SURE THAT'S WHY THE EURO WENT DOWN.. NOT



    It's amazing the crap that is written.

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  57. Inlet,

    The reason I mentioned FCEL to you is because first of all you are a very good chartist and people here who are interested in FCEL can look at your charts and analysis, secondly this puppy usually bottoms during the summer and then more than doubles by fall or end of yr, third I see nothing wrong with you taking advantage of this one and make some extra $$$$ as well, and as far as older folks, Kli and I are almost the same age and eventhough I am younger than you we are not too far apart age wise. Respect is always there for you and I am sure you already know it.

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  58. check the three year $HUI....very nice repeating patter of channel resets....each lower.....look where we are

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  59. Inlet....."life is risky"...Joe has some "experience" with life then....hehehe.....He isn't in the nap stage yet but lets just say my line of work and Joe's collide.....

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  60. T/A folks....pull up a GDXJ 2year chart and tell me what you see.

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  61. Kli, I see that an August market reversal with July chop looks to repeat

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  62. Kli patches 'em, you can guess the other.

    As to Ken's comment, Joe pointed it out to you Kli, it's "FEAR". Playing the fear card from not getting on the boat to not getting off the boat fast enough. Totalitarian policies cannot be enacted without the consent of the sheep. Best tool is fear when the circuses no longer entertain and there is no bread left.

    It's much easier to change the news and events the public perceives to fit the cycle , than trying to change the longer term cycles themselves. Notice the lack of Fuku nuke news, yet plenty on Syria Insurrection and Wiener news.

    Basically the broader market is completely controlled with chosen insiders allowed to lead the up and down cycles, plus keep the trading profits for managing the interests of the cabal. Since funds are mostly electronic, they are literally created out of nothing for a brief moment and then disappear again, though the trading profits stay for the facilitator. The casino is rigged, deal with it and move on. If you choose to play when the dice are heavily loaded you should be willing to accepted the consequences.

    That is one reason why I believe Joe prefers the smaller POS stocks, they function more logically with real money involved, since the heavy manipulation is on the index components. All plays are high risk except the POS high betas have a slightly higher rate of a return like in Black Jack.

    Also the weekly RSI and MACD on the SP500 has some room left to go down before it can turn.

    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=sp500&x=63&y=10&time=8&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=6%2F10%2F2011&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=1&maval=20&uf=8&lf=2&lf2=32&lf3=4&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11

    During the deflationary collapse starting sometime between 2011-2013 all equities will get slapped due to a lack of liquidity. So don't get to attached to any alphabet soup holding for more than a trade with an exit plan.

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  63. kli,

    You see what I mean by AWARENESS, now you know why Red is special, he has the capability to quickly put 2 &2 together and recognize why I do what I do from the angle I do it, whether the subject is stock market or any other subject, he does not need me to explain in detail the reasons behind what I say or do, his awareness kicks in once I touch a subject and can connect the reasoning behind my actions.

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  64. Weiner and Palin have really ben taking up the news lately.. Weiner will have to resign now that the worse pictures are coming out. And Palin's not running for president so... It's all non-news. You'll hear 9000% more about Syria than you will Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Bahrain combined.

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  65. Joe,
    I understand and agree with Red's recognitions, I am simply at the stage where I want to test them. Where I usually fail is in following my own convictions. I was just reminded of this when a friend asked me a question about a statement I made in mid April where I said to get out of the markets; that they were going down. Sadly, I did not follow my own warning. THAT bothers me.
    Joe, I don't know you. I only get what I can piece together here. My guess is that it isn't simply that you play in the parts of the markets that are less controlled. you play the parts of the markets which are not so much controlled by entities bigger than you. You avoid playing with the sharks where you can. I am guessing that you are still a shark, you have simply found the correct size pool. I am not sure where this leaves the rest of us. Except for your guidance in your pool, your pool is no different than the bigger pools to us small guys.

    May you stay entertained enough that you don't eat us, for I know you are always hungry.

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  66. Palmer Joe. I read your comments regarding slw at 2.5 in 09 another stock comes to mid and it is lvs...I played that one at 3 and sold in teens way to early but the charts on lvs and slw look alot more similar to me than slw and fcel..Fcel reminds me of peix which I talked about on this board a few months ago...the moving averages on fcel are still downward on weekly and monthly...When Lvs and slw bottomed in o9 their monthly looked exactly the same as LNGS when it bottomed in 3's....Not telling anyone what to do but look at comparisons...DJ

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