Saturday, June 11, 2011

WEEKEND PICNIC update I....C A Fitts link

A time to rest and relax after a week of the typical Banker's Beatdown. I hope your wounds are healing. Had we listened to my advice a month ago we would be sitting on overweight cash waiting to see the whites of their eyes. Or maybe we would be in EUO this week. This is the game. A lot more serious events are unfolding around the world so you should put everything in perspective. Here is Immred's take this week.

As to Ken's comment, Joe pointed it out to you Kli, it's "FEAR". Playing the fear card from not getting on the boat to not getting off the boat fast enough. Totalitarian policies cannot be enacted without the consent of the sheep. Best tool is fear when the circuses no longer entertain and there is no bread left.

It's much easier to change the news and events the public perceives to fit the cycle , than trying to change the longer term cycles themselves. Notice the lack of Fuku nuke news, yet plenty on Syria Insurrection and Wiener news.

Basically the broader market is completely controlled with chosen insiders allowed to lead the up and down cycles, plus keep the trading profits for managing the interests of the cabal. Since funds are mostly electronic, they are literally created out of nothing for a brief moment and then disappear again, though the trading profits stay for the facilitator. The casino is rigged, deal with it and move on. If you choose to play when the dice are heavily loaded you should be willing to accepted the consequences.

That is one reason why I believe Joe prefers the smaller POS stocks, they function more logically with real money involved, since the heavy manipulation is on the index components. All plays are high risk except the POS high betas have a slightly higher rate of a return like in Black Jack.

Also the weekly RSI and MACD on the SP500 has some room left to go down before it can turn.

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Index&symb=sp500&x=63&y=10&time=8&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=6%2F10%2F2011&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=1&maval=20&uf=8&lf=2&lf2=32&lf3=4&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11

During the deflationary collapse starting sometime between 2011-2013 all equities will get slapped due to a lack of liquidity. So don't get to attached to any alphabet soup holding for more than a trade with an exit plan.

Lastly but not leastly....you might just want to take the time to read this link....a very complete and telling tale of the CLUB and who THEY are that I have talked about in the past. This is Wall Street. This is how you are going to make money. If you want to play with the big boyz then understand WHO the big boyz are. I am not putting this up for your self-righteous indignation so save the cries of foul for someone that gives a shit. This is the casino we are in and this is the game you and I are playing. Read it and NO BITCHING! Stay at home if you don't like the HOUSE.

http://www.10sigma.com/files/Martin%20Armstrong%20Biography%20May%202011.pdf

Fitts....a more detailed and eloquent version of the above...some of you have seen this posted before here...but Paladin brought it today

http://dunwalke.com/1_Brady_Bush_Bechtel.htm

30 comments:

  1. Joe, KLI and other FCEL followers - I did a chart and analysis of FCEL.

    http://swingcycles.blogspot.com/2011/06/fcel-06-11-2011.html

    Ahh, the boogeyman fear. I actually did follow my advice and am sitting almost totally in cash. Picked up a few share of HL early yesterday AM. Not sure if this is going to be a trade or a holding. Knowing me - if I get a nice gain I will sell it. Hehehehe

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  2. Thanx inlet - checking in after some really good and really miserable rounds of golf (dehydrated).

    Joe - "Even though I enjoy reading kli's blog and great analysis about problems and injustice,,,etc, maybe it's better not to talk about it much, afterall what do you think it makes us when we say one thing and when the day starts then we are talking about how to make money from where we all agree is corrupt. At what point do you guys think we should stop hypocricy and just focus on the real reason we are here which has nothing to do with walking the right path. Let's just focus on what we really want which is making money from the market and not talk about right and wrong since we are all part of the problem and not the solution. Talk is cheap, we are what we do, always remember that."

    Can we not do that please? I think folks can talk about why we are here (trading), and about the "path". I think one of the best things about this group is the moral and political discussions at times. And sometimes they do provide insights into the trade. I almost take exception to the term hypocrisy. While we may not be capable of changing things, at least talking about it and getting other viewpoints can only be good. Yes - there are extremist (relative term) views, but as long as we don't turn this into a blog about politics and morals, I say have at it. In other words, no attacks on views you may believe to be "wrong". You guys taught me a lot about how it all works. I got nailed both ways on SKF and UYG on the two tarp votes. Just one of the sheeple thinking these jackasses actually make a difference and now I think I know better because of you guys. i think I know where you were heading to with that statement, so I'll shut up now.

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  3. DJ,

    When I mentioned SLW at the low , I did not mean that FCEL will do what SLW did from percentage gain perspective, I agree that FCEL might still have more downside, the point I was making was that I usually look for stocks that their down side is getting close to managable from risk/reward perspective of going long for a while, I do not even expect $3 for FCEL, my point was I like chances of FCEL at around 0.90 to $1 low and doubling from there. If you want to have a one on one comparison as far as percentage gain then comparison with SLW would be LVS, GORO, and other stocks. So in summary I believe you misunderstood what I was trying to say, focus should be on how low you expect a particular stock to go from where they currently are and what's the risk/reward as a result of comparing down side percentage vs upside potential.

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  4. "We are what we do, always remember that!" Gotta love the truth! Heheee Kind of like "Checking your motives" Always hard to look in the mirror...........

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  5. Ken,

    You mentioned:

    "My guess is that it isn't simply that you play in the parts of the markets that are less controlled. you play the parts of the markets which are not so much controlled by entities bigger than you. You avoid playing with the sharks where you can."

    ----------------------------------------

    Your assumption is WRONG, Red mentioned it correctly, I PREFER playing the areas of the market that are smaller POS stocks, they function more logically with real money involved, since the heavy manipulation is on the index components. Prefer which is an accurate statement made by RED does not translate into what you mentioned. I play the stocks that are heavily manipulated by the big BOYZ as well, the difference is I do my home work more intensly to make sure when I play with the big BOYZ that I move in the same direction as them and then depending on who is on my way if they do not have the same strength but they are challenging, then I flex muscle as well. As far as me being a shark, depends on your definition of the shark. I have never worked for any financial institution and I am not a PRO trader in a sense that TRADING is my profession, it's not. I trade the market because I need the money generated from it to be used for my REAL profession which has nothing to do with stock market.

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  6. Ken,

    I mentioned I have invested/traded in the market for almost 36 yrs, I never said that was or is my profession. Huge difference between trading like a pro and good at it so profits can be used for REAL business which has nothing to do with market vs. pro trader who makes a living from the market.

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  7. Fair enough, Joe. I do not assume anything, but my guess was wrong.

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  8. Inlet,

    Thanks, like your blog and especially the fib numbers you put there on Friday in regard to overall market.

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  9. My misunderstanding was that lv 3 was for "pro traders". I had not asked further questions, as I figured it was none of my business.

    Respectfully,
    Ken
    ( using an ap that seems to acess my old horatio account.)

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  10. Ken,

    LV3 is not just available to pro traders or powerful wall st whales, there are also other folks outside of wall st and completely in different profession whom not only are powerful, more powerful than even the sharks in wall ST but also UNKNOWN to most ( powerful and unknown to most is power), food for thought! When I said RED is special from awareness perspective, it means his level of awareness is to the point that he sees the issue from outside of the box and not inside and very few people have that kind of awareness.

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  11. In regard to my statement about Red, I meant not only he sees inside the box, he also sees outside the box and surrounding and that gives him AWARENESS, therfore he does not assume much.

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  12. In a market breakdown SLW can/will trade to single digits again........DISCIPLINE!! keep that cash stash just in case

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  13. pageviews from Japan are way up Joe...Why??

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  14. found my answer....averampiril's ex skf has gone nippon......wow.....must be viral now over in japan....

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  15. kli,

    Why are you asking a question which you already know the answer, heheheee. Obviously the issues you discuss, perspectives and articles are very familiar outside of our borders and japenese along with Europeans enjoy reading the truth you are trying to educate the U.S. readers with. Also the stocks being brought up here by various posters has got the attention of foriegn traders/investors. Foriegn readers always respect those Americans who are not repeating propaganda and concept of raraaaaa.

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  16. kli,

    It's not just averam, he might have brought some attention and curiosity to Japenese viewers but it's the meant and potato of your blog that's increasing their interest.

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  17. meat and potato of course was meant, typo!

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  18. Just want to send a quick thanks to Kli and the rest for what this blog has done for me over the past 2 years or so that I have followed it. It's not just from a trading/investment perspective, but opening my eyes to so much more. I've never been a sheep per se, but what I have picked up here so far has been invaluable.

    Now, back to the market. I took Kli's advice and went to heavy cash around mid-May. Porfolio is down only about 3% since hitting a personal all-time high in late April. I think I may sit on cash all summer, and in hurry to play in this casino. Had a small short in GS which is covered for a tiny profit, and still holding a small core of miners and energy. May accumulate if there's a severe beatdown.

    Two losers are HNR and DCTH. The risk is small (about 2-3% of my overall holdings in both combined), and may just sit and wait on these.

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  19. thank for the Martin Armstrong post

    Catherine Austin Fitts

    does a tell all...

    http://dunwalke.com/

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  20. Joe - my intent on my blog is to provide information (and educate) in a way that will help your ordinary unsophiscated investor avoid some of the potholes on Wall Street.

    I hope FIBS are not too complicated for that trader/investor (even though I have spent some time in past posts showing and explaining them).

    No greed, no fear involved - truly altruistic in trying to educate (I was going to be a math teacher in life before I got side tracked into computers) people. Redemption for choices I made (maybe)?

    Inlet

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  21. Thanks for the charts Inlet.

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  22. Thanx again Inlet - loved you from the old Yahoo boards. Was it BB&T you had an interest in? Only bring it up because we're on the boys Myrtle Beach trip and I remember that from a ways back. I think it was you.

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  23. Kli - re ex-skf, WTF

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEmJ-VWPDM4

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  24. And a question I've always asked...why is it the guitar players from the 80s had to dance but no the bass players? LOL

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  25. Homer - I have traded BB&T in the past. Right now financials are toxic and to be avoided. Far too much uncertainity regarding regulations and capital requirements.

    BB&T is one of the better large regional banks (along with PNC and US Bankcorp). It appears for example BB&T has written off most/all of their ADC loans. Since they never bought a mortgage under writer with no standards (JPM - WAMU, BAC - Countrywide, WFC - Wachovia which had bought Golden West) their mortgage defaults seem managable. Still, with the uncertainity out there they could easily pull back to the low $20s.

    BTW - I live in Murrells Inlet (out of the tourist area) - south end of MB.

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  26. Bout half way thru the Brady/Bush update I'm sick........

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  27. and that one tom is "indisputable"......

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  28. Thank you Inlet...your time is valuable...I always had time to review your posts in another board...

    Wisdom is learning how to listen to others whom might be closer to the answer than oneself....

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  29. Mother nature will be the ultimate winner in this game..

    http://earthquake-report.com/2011/06/12/unusual-series-of-moderate-volcanic-earthquakes-in-eritrea-and-ethiopia/

    this could be big as this almost caused extinction once....

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  30. Joe thanks for commenting on FCEL I totally understand now what you are saying..If you look at fcel and peixd was peix they are almost clones...Joe beleive me I am looking for another lvs or slw at lows....need to find one quick...I thought lng maybe still....cheers thanks again...

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