Wednesday, June 29, 2011

WHATS THE NEXT STEP?


If you are still in this market then you had better ask yourself why. This is where the game gets seriously confusing. No clear direction in the Market any longer with Ben's explicit message that QE2 is ending. Obviously many of the shorter term treasuries will catch a bid with fear creaping into the equation. Obviously there will be no attempt to increase rates in the the next year. When and if they do you can turn off the lights. That would be a signal depression is coming. Remember that.

I want to make some comments before I sign off today. Careful in the future on your cash holdings. I will be purposefully obtuse as Jim Sinclair was. Your trading accounts sitting in "cash" could be in jeopardy. It is one reason to consider being in equities OR products like PHYS or CEF or even PSLV. This is a true danger. What manner you choose in holding cash is yours, but these are strange times and expect confusing signals. I will repeat what little vision I have on the current trading environment. It will push the extremes of the Bollinger Bands and your patience. I have enjoyed the daily exchanges but am recieving mail from some of you expressing your fear of continued participation in this market and a public forum. I understand AND agree. gl all

69 comments:

  1. Good morning all......Joe finally been digging under rocks and found something juicy...ALAN & CDTI.....might get interesting.....

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  2. Joe,.....ORS and RITT still in play?

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  3. Brian,

    I'll check it out, meanwhile today the trade was QIHU and RENN again, heheeeeee.

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  4. hah, I actually played the same thing as joe. got about 70 cents on 3 green renn trades

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  5. In play are QIHU, RENN and YOKU and by the way Brian do not be scared about your trading account which kli mentioned in today's post, that's fear mongering to scare people off. Trading brokrages will make excellent money from commision especially during depression. The reason most average traders should stay away from the market is because they won't be successful making consistant money from market but that has nothing to do with their account be in jeopardy, that one is a line of B.S. If you become a good trader, you will make good money when most are AFRAID. That means knowing when to short and when to go long.

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  6. Ken,

    Bravo, you are going to be just fine, turn off all the distractions & fear and focus on making money. Those who think trading accounts would be in jeopardy are the fearful ones of the market, do not know how to be a successful traders and therfore they have to justify their short comings by convincing themselves that their cash account is unsafe. As long as guys like you and Brian stay focused and solid I will post here trying to help you out. It makes no difference to me whether people want to trade or not, I know what needs to be done.

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  7. Ken & Brian,

    The forum you guys would have enjoyed is if kli's blog was mostly pro traders, then you would have really enjoyed the exchange of trading ideas.

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  8. Joe,
    Could you be kind enough to expand on "line of BS" your usually not at odds with Kli at least this bluntly :) My take he is cautioning about money market funds and the possibility of a freeze up. As always your opinion is appreciated and afterwards ill draw my own conclusion.

    Thanks

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  9. oxgn is in play...I thought we were all brilliant traders....

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  10. Joe,
    Much respect for Kli and the gang here. Trust me when I say from all the knowledge on this board I am sitting very nice right now ;) Just keep us all in the loop when the all mighty doors of the woodshed open up for business and we shall all be led to the promise land... I have seen the light shine down upon us my brotha!!!!!

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  11. started position in cytr down at .70..touched strong support down there and playing the move back to .90something and change...the fast stoch bottom is acting similar to 09/10...no guarantees
    risk/reward is good...

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CYTR+Interactive#symbol=cytr;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma(50,100,200)+macd+stochasticfast+volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;

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  12. Brian, I know where you sit...the view is good...the leaders are bad...

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  13. CHUCK,
    Spot on buddy ;) More then welcome to come over for the 4th doors are open.... Check out ALAN and CDTI...let me know your thoughts

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  14. Line of B.S. means there is a huge difference between some one realizing they are not good at trading the market and because they do not want to lose money in the market, they stay away vs saying the trading account overall is not safe even if they stay in cash. The latter is B.S. I respect those who do not know how to make money from the market and stay away, what I do not respect since it's not true is if one claims that trading accounts overall are unsafe even if you are in cash. I am not hitting kli, I am responding to those who told kli they are afraid of keeping cash in their trading account. If people are not interested or scared of the market then they should stay away and even close their account, it's their choice, but what they should not try to do which is fear mongering is making statements that people should close their account since their account is unsafe, that one is a line of B.S. As far as political conversations, whether one decides to talk on public forum or do not talk at all makes no differencde since power knows how individuals think, there is no escape on that one, every one's life story is open book to powerful.

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  15. For those who want to post about controversial subjects but are afraid, it makes no difference since power knows how each one of you think and believe even if you decide not to verbalize it on public forums. People's naivity never stops amaze me. with today's technology which goes beyond internet every one and I mean every one's thought and action is monitored whether they post or not. Those who think are safe because they do not post are gravely mistaken, there is no escape from that part which means say what's in your mind, it's only unknown to your average fellow who might not know where you stand on issues but not to power, so do not fool yourselves by thinking that not posting means safety.

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  16. Brian, Alan looks like a great short if not now soon...it reeks of pump and dump, merger seems to be fending off nasdaq delisting...merged with company with unaudited books...smells..be careful...

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  17. Brian,

    I like ALAN, seems like due to the merger this puppy is undervalued at current price even if MMS scare traders out of it now, the overall outstanding shares for ALAN after merger is 34M shares which is very nice and not diluted much.

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  18. Chuck,

    ALAN at current price has 0.70 downside but upside could be higher than where it is sitting, I would not judge this one too quickly yet.

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  19. Brian, CDTI with secondary at 3.75...I wonder if they take it down there first...still a very small float....

    check out GBR float....and power spikes...short interest high...I'm not in that trade...

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  20. Damn...what ever happened to DCTH????? Just looked at the chart YIKS!!!!

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  21. By the way folks, one more point, the minute you start reading WEB, even if you do not post at all any where, your identity, entire life story, likes and dislikes goes to data base, seems like most people still have no idea how beyond their imagination the technology available to powerful has become which means posting or not posting does not keep any one ANON. There is no such thing as ANON anymore. Get that thru your skulls and therfore live and communicate without fear, when it's your time, it's your time. You should never let fear dictate what's safe and what's not.

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  22. ALAN just broke $2, heheeeeeeeeee, Brian, thanks for bringing it up. Keep doing homework and bring these stocks. Chuck and Brian, keep doing what you are doing, kudos to both of you.

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  23. Thanks for the clarifications as mentioned before taking some time off as I don't have the time right now to devote to keeping up on trading as needed. Your certainly right on big brother knowing! just open a professional account on spokeo.com you will be amazed on the information that is out there on folks. I'm sure that big bro has much more...........

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  24. Joe, You keep your class in session and I will bring you the hidden gems =)

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  25. The concessions of the weak are the concessions of fear. Burke

    Men are swayed more by fear than by reverence.
    Aristotle

    Expose yourself to your deepest fear; after that, fear has no power, and the fear of freedom shrinks and vanishes. You are free.
    Jim Morrison

    Joe, check out GBR

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  26. ALAN hitting $2.20............go go go....

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  27. brian, where did you enter...it moves down when it hits 2.40 for the last year...if it gets thru could zoom to 4

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  28. Brian,

    You DA man and I made sure you get rewarded on ALAN.

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  29. I'd sell half for little profit...thats just me though...

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  30. Joe and Chuck, I am going to ride tis one out to see where it plays out. Do either of you have a target?

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  31. 2.40 was a target...

    Not much behind the company...

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  32. Brian,

    It needs to break 2.40 and if it does it can really go. I got in at 1.70 and took profit around 2.30. Chuck, like GBR's outstanding shares and it's trading close to 52 week low, I will keep an eye on it.

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  33. Good trade Brian and Joe..

    Joe, GBR- I'll keep eye on it also and post if vol. pours in..

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  34. Joe,
    tell me if I am wrong but the tape is pushing ALAN into the $2.60 range....This puppy is going to blow....

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  35. Please tell me others on this board have made some $$$$ today of ALAN? Kli? Ken? Sista? Tom?

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  36. Brian,

    Yup, I took 70% profit around 2.30 and riding the other 30% until I see exhaustion. 2.60 broke.

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  37. Kli,

    $HUI on an impressive move. seems like it may have legs. do you think it can bust thru the $535 - $540 range. i am starting to wonder if the bottem is in for awhile.

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  38. Joe,
    Seeing resistance around the $2.69 mark....pulling the plug now...

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  39. Chuck,

    GBR traded around $4 during the crash of 2008/2009 when oil prices were around $35 a barrel and now this one is around 2.50, with only 1.9M outstanding shares, if volume picks up this one can really fly.

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  40. joe,

    Lots of issues with GBR....I will buy with volume for day trade only...it usually spikes and moves down hard..timing it will be a bee with itch...

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  41. Would you like to exchange links? I have added your site to my blog list at: http://stockmarketpoll.blogspot.com/

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  42. Joe, Brian, this could move Rxii pps..either buyout or based off their phase 11 results..they might get fda fast track....

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fda-panel-moves-against-roches-avastin-2011-06-29?link=MW_home_latest_news

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  43. Let me be clear.....Money Markets (breaking the buck) have been "shored up" but they still remain at risk....as discussed previously the global liquidity game will be maintained another year according to Hoyle. That doesn't mean its absolute. I believe that a prudent investor chooses a brokerage account with treasuries backing the money market in the brokerage acct. eg. Scottrade...gl and yes I am NOT sanguine on the future.....hehhehehe....but for now I will play the game. When the music stops beware.

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  44. Joe,
    Any chances of taken ALAN to the woodshed so we can get back in? Damn this thing just got a quick bitch slap down to $2.39 and bounced right back.....

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  45. Yes $HUI is forming a higher low and higher high.....gold and silver are real......that's why I play them......I also don't have the time to day trade now so I swing trade and occaisionlly daytrade. As I said earlier this year I will be VERY careful in the market this year. As Joe has said EVERYONE of you has to ask yourself WHY you are in this market. Understand your level of risk and don't deviate from your limitations. Most of you are retail and will ground into hamburger.

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  46. Brian,

    We shall see what tomorrow brings, can not tell what happens tomorrow until it's here and in real time tape talks. Need to see the volume and direction tomorrow.

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  47. fsys bounced off 23 again like a kid in an inflatable....

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  48. Kli, I'm in the market to buy meat but have bought somehow get mixed up in the fruit section...

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  49. Joe.....I will catch ya at opening bell in the AM.....have a great day and thank you.....Chuck I will meet you at the market..pickin up some steak and lobster after todays session...YUMMY.....

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  50. brian,

    Who has the lobster tail deals?

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  51. In regard to earlier subject about people's cash in brokerage trading accounts:

    http://www.kiplinger.com/columns/ask/archive/2008/q0721.htm

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  52. HEAT just bounced off 52 wk low hard...now plus on day

    double bottom..
    ribeyes at safeway 5.99lb...

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  53. to clarify ....my bad missed it in original post........brokerage money market accounts are of two types Prime and treasury backed....be sure you have treasury backed only.....not Prime....you can check the composition of your money market in most of your brokerage accts also you are insured....cough sputter n puke... http://www.fool.com/foolu/askfoolu/2002/askfoolu020111.htm

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  54. FCEL fell off a cliff end of day. 3 million shares dumped at the close. very strange.

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  55. http://seekingalpha.com/article/276793-doug-loud-and-jeff-mosseri-how-to-pick-pm-juniors-with-proven-management?source=yahoo

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  56. more like a dump,haha, reality is its trading at $1.26 for a reason. I own small amount of this garbage at $1.42, I gambled on the premise it would hold the $1.35 level, it didnt. live and learn. you win some and lose some. life goes on.

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  57. i will be a bagholder of FCEL for a bit now. Unless some horrible news comes out, i will consider trying to add at $1.13 and hopefully it can catch some type of short term bid.

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  58. kli-here is link referencing your concerns in a way..

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-29/institutions-pull-out-of-prime-money-funds.html

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  59. Money Markets are a temporary parking spot, you either play the casino with the casino chips or wire the proceeds back and forth from either a FDIC insured bank account or an offshore account.

    Only time the electronic cash becomes and problem is if the grid or net locks up, but then you have other problems to deal with.

    FCEL bounce may happen around 1.18-1.21 on the daily, unless market loses some temporary liquidity air.

    Most of the world will be in a stagflation/depressed state except for Greece, when they default they will get hyperinflation and be depressed.

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  60. The action in the markets so far seems 100% inline with a prediction I saw here about a week or so ago. A push to 1300 on the SPX, followed by a fall to the 1050 range, starting as early as next week and lasting thru August. That should get Ben's attention for the next round of QE. I'm not buying this week's window dressing rally, but more knowledgable posters let me if I'm wrong and this up leg has room to run.

    Red, I also trade in a couple of IRAs, and it's not possible to wire money back and forth there. So, it has to sit in MM until I'm ready for the next trade.

    Also, I thought the funds in brokerage accounts are SIPC insured, am I missing something there?

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  61. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/6/29_Robin_Griffiths.html

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  62. Money market losses are "rare but possible" according to the SEC, but in most cases isn't it possible to simply hold "cash" at your brokerage and not opt for an automatic money market sweep? That way you're covered by SIPC I do believe.

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  63. On 06-11 I charted FCEL (per Joe's request). I said: An ideal entry time for a longer term trade may be the last week of June.

    http://swingcycles.blogspot.com/2011/06/fcel-06-11-2011.html

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  64. Inlet,

    nice analysis on FCEL. too bad i didnt read your post on 06/11/11. i own some from 06/15/11 at $1.42 haha. thought it might make a run to $1.60 before a retest of may 24 low of $1.35 i should have cut bait when it was trading 2-3 million shares a day and only moving a penny at a time, plus during the last 3 up days, it has trended lower. i knew they were red flags and just figured at worst it would retest $1.35 and atleast pop to low $1.40s before a bigger breakdown. at which i could have unloaded for a small loss if i chose to. the pop at $1.35 wasnt much, so i held. poor choice at this point. leave it to mr mkt to throw me a curve ball and dump 3 million shares at the close. dont know what to expect. $1.13 level may be my next option to consider adding for a quick hit and run, if it can find support and atleast catch a bid. i will be watching to see if your time cycle is correct and it finds that bottem and starts to stabalize for a move up. appreciate your post.

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  65. budfox stay out of the markets, if you really want to play wait until a hard swing day on a puke or blow out top and find something liquid you can afford to gamble and lose.

    Just check your IRA Money Market to see if it is FDIC insured. I would not put too much faith in the SIPC, if something goes very wrong with your brokerage or money market account your funds are locked up limbo for a few months or longer until things get sorted out.

    In the process of moving so will not be here much. Sunnier climate.

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  66. Immred you trust the FDIC over SIPC? The money market is not insured but actual cash and shares in the account are insured by SIPC which isn't living paycheck to paycheck with the congress like the FDIC is.

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  67. unable to access my blog for new post....gl

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