Wednesday, June 22, 2011

WHO LET THE DOGS OUT?


Let's turn off the noise and look at the charts on the miners. Your ears may hear the media sounding multiple signals of gold and silver's demise but the longer term charts on the metals are still in a bull market. If you have studied the fundamentals of the precious metals trade then one has to be encouraged here that the miners may be forming a significant bottom. Are they really though. Or is this another false bounce in them.

There is certainly evidence that some of the miners had some serious short covering the past couple of days and the big hedge money may be taking off the short positions after crushing the weak hands and taking their shares. Nothing like a stiff dose of fear to make holding a sector that takes a 30- 40%beatdown to remove your appetite for holding on to the trade. Is that what happened? Or is this a longer term move that still has some severe pain ahead? One thing is certain. If the PTB intend to extend the Keynesian experiment in an attempt to sustain the global lifeblood of liquidity then this is VERY likely a trade you want to be in for the remainder of this year.

However if you believe that they can't carry the facade for another few months and the meltdown in the liquidity will transpire very rapidly then cash is your play right now.

Put up the 3year 2year and 1year charts on $GOLD and $HUI.

Now for the Greek noise. Can you believe that civil unrest? lol Heck...the "protesters" couldn't even muster enough energy to wait in front of parliament before half of them went home to get their naps. Did you like the energy of the Greek citizenry. My guess is our masses will do the same. As long as their bellies are full and their minds are occupied by reruns of American Idol we will keep the system intact and the casino lights on.

25 comments:

  1. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/AlcatelLucent-to-Unveil-the-prnews-2111193043.html?x=0&.v=7

    ReplyDelete
  2. Good morning all......Kli and Joe take a look at GBG.....seems to be making a nice move this am...

    ReplyDelete
  3. Another good trading day for SVM and RIC.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Brian,

    Kli yesterday talked to me about GBG, look at their debt vs revenue and also more importantly, look at float/outstanding shares, it makes it a pig, how ever in the stock market unlike real world pigs can some times fly, the move yesterday and today is short covering since this pig is heavily shorted, but as a company it's still a pig. Short squeeze might take it to 2.30/2.40, the question is whether I want to play it or not, and I am not sure about that.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Brian,

    Between now and the end of the yr I will play SVM and RIC, both side of the coin. SVM is one of the largest Silver producer companies in China with operations in Canada as well and RIC is an excellent company and well managed. If market really tanks to the point that SVM and RIC become ridiculosly cheap then I will change my strategy from trade to buy and hold on those two, meanwhile due to market I trade them. They are both solid companies.

    ReplyDelete
  6. The announcement by the CEO of SVM in regard to buy back shares which I posted couple of days ago was nice and after it hit $8, it's given a nice ride . RIC's move in couple of days has also been nice. Now, what we need is for the big boyz to really start the fear factor and major puke and if it happens I'll be there to grab it.

    ReplyDelete
  7. I prefer the FEAR factor in the market in compare to GREED factor, cheap for good companies is always good!

    ReplyDelete
  8. nice little comeback for CSUN up 40percent in the last 3 days.

    ReplyDelete
  9. rudemood,

    If you have the stomach for the small cap chinese stocks and their huge swings in both directions then you will do fine assuming they do not get delisted. Hit and run is the name of the game with small cap chinese stocks especially the reverse-merger ones used to trade over the counter and made it to AMEX or NASDAQ.

    ReplyDelete
  10. I see someone is trying to cap RIC and turn it down from 7.40

    ReplyDelete
  11. Hmmmm RITT jumping today..wonder whats happening......hahahaha....

    ReplyDelete
  12. Chuck.....where have ya been lately?

    ReplyDelete
  13. good morning all....at least its my morning today....nice to see the follow thru on miners and gold. Bernank speaks soon ....maybe I should mute CNBS and watch his body language.....hehehhehe......trimmed a little ANV and RIC......just like a good retail investor....hehehehe..

    ReplyDelete
  14. He has spoken.....party on Garth...

    ReplyDelete
  15. Bernank: debts are a long term problem......reducing them short term not productive......increase confidence....

    ReplyDelete
  16. amazing candles on EGO ANV daily

    ReplyDelete
  17. Ben looks VERY uncomfortable in this news conference. Catch 22 here not much choice and he knows it

    ReplyDelete
  18. GBG has a beutiful turn volume candle with nice follow through....I own it for a trade but would not want to own or trade this if it cannot clear and hold 2.46 area....

    ReplyDelete
  19. 90% cash now. got some miners long and short today. Take'n profits a bit faster than needed, but I am risk adverse at the moment. Today was what I expected. upward momentum with no reachable support level to hold the lift, and then back down. For a moment I was thinking a few could climb to 200dma......but that would have been just greedy. I am thinking sloppy bear grind til' August with situational trades as they come.
    Some stocks with good companies could surprise and go up this summer to where they deserve to be, or they could dump to a very good price to enter and hold. light volume crap. probably no capitulation.

    ReplyDelete
  20. I took my profits on EXK today.
    Just 2 more days, and I need to be completely unplugged.
    The remoteness of the Canadian North is beckoning me to step back in time for awhile.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Who recommended AVL a while ago? It has had a good run the last 3 days. Ben has looked uncomfortable every time I've seen him for the last 3 yrs., particularly on 60 Minutes where he was visibly shaking...he's not a good liar.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Today was much as expected. Nice day for a scalp on QID... So do we retrace today's loss tomorrow. Looks likely.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Hey Joe - LLL was nice today, too bad I sold a little while back for some decent gains. Now its running and I left none in the port as per usual...

    ReplyDelete
  24. A little confused here. Ben (yep, he looked pretty gloomy alright) made it very clear that the economy is in the crapper and no QE3 is coming, yet. This is what we've been predicting, and the next step should the a nice correction from now till August. Once near-capitulation is reached, he'll be forced do something. But I was surprised by the market's action, it can't possibly rally from here?

    Cheap money is the only thing that's kept this market standing, and now the tap will shut for a while.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Bah I failed to post what I was gonna post.. Anyway my conclusion was that I'm holding CSUN some more.. 20% sounds nice but it's just a partial loss recoup for me. This is a long-term beatdown and I'm willing to bet that the bounce isn't over.

    Kli you're right about the Greece protests.. most of us 1st-worlders have to get PRETTY hungry to consider rioting. All indicators are still green for the ponzi, long live too many people not asking for what they've been promised all at once.

    ReplyDelete