Friday, July 8, 2011

I'M STUNNED!


The most common quote on the Squawk Box panel after the Job's report. All of our Fed pollyanna panelist were stunned when the 18000 number was announced. Not only this number but the downgrades to previous months were also slipped in. Yes Houston we have a problem. Of course "doom and gloomers" have been castigated for saying that "things are bad" and "getting worse" for quite sometime. Even though many/most data points have supported this....the market has risen. These type of numbers are hard to rip into a positive especially after a 1000 pt DOW straight up move. At least now you can understand why the market was moved up prior to these numbers. The question is WHAT NEXT? Are we back on the big slide down to retest lows? Should you be on the short bus for the cashola? Gold and Silver are up premarket in anticipation of the pig money printing/stimulus sure to come. I think this also puts the current "susterity negotiations" into flux. It's going to be hard for the republipukes to hold to austerity with the country collapsing and the demidumbs will have renewed wind behind their side to push the pork. Of course I am in the camp the whole game is rigged already so whatever was going to happen is already decided. If you noticed the 800lb gorilla in the room that is NEVER even mentioned to cut is the Military Industrial complex with it two WARS and 800 military bases in 125 countries. BTW can you imagine bring home the boys into this economy. I wonder what might happen to the POLS. Of course once the peeps start to get restless the troops will have something to do when they come back home.

Watch the behavior of gold today. If we stay bullish then we have convoy ahead. This game is just hetting started on this run. Its money printing gang. MONEY MONEY MONEY. gl all

46 comments:

  1. Hi Kli,

    Rookie trader wants to know why SSRI and not AGQ?

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  2. Dung......STAY away from AGQ.....if silver stays in accumulation AGQ has a decay factor that kills the return. If you want to play it then play it as a short term trade ONLY. I hate this etf.....because we have miners. If we break 40 it might be worth a throw but I'd rather play miners as a leveraged silver play here. EXK AG SLW SSRI

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  3. Dung when the big boyz decide to flush the retail trader out of a trade....NOTHING works better than these etfs......you'll choke and puke it up faster than you can shake a stick. You will frequently have your stops run if you use them also.....NO I HATE UM. I will use some short (different reason I have accts i cannot short in) like DTO....but I hate it too and don't use stops. Play the miners for leverage or just use PSLV. Use options on SLV too.

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  4. I will play some leveraged etfs like EUO or where I don't have a leveraged preferable way to play a trade....like SGG in sugar....BUT you must be selective

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  5. Joe has warned you and so have I that when they take the whole market down for the big flush they will destroy silver if you get caught in AGQ it will destroy you.....the QUALITY miners will eventually recover. QUALITY the big producerslike GG GFI

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  6. Todays trade was at the open for MOBI and BORN when MMs flushed it and took the stops out, MOBI was excellent trade at 9.30 and BORN at 6.70, huge gaps down at the open always excellent for intra-day bounce.

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  7. AGQ was an excellent short when it hit 184.80 and silver rolled.

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  8. NE looks like a terrific risk reward right now, you can place an extremely tight stop. I just went long a few minutes ago.

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  9. Yes......NOW shorting AGQ can be VERY INTERESTIN.....but DANGEROUS also....but you can take advantage of the decay too

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  10. That's the shipping industry witch has been beat down since the crash (basing since forever). Definitely bottom fishing but when this sector does finally break out of stage 1 it's going to trend for a while i think. Now seems like as good a shoot as any if you want to roll the dice before a breakout. (in terms of risk control with a tight stop that is)

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  11. Brian,

    Cali is just like ALAN, Short the heck out of it after run during the day, cover the shorts before closing the same day and buy at closing for the bounce the next day and when you get 0.20 to 0.30 upside then dump it, it worked CLASSIC. Once you get more experienced you can see what I call PATTERN OF BEHAVIOR. ALAN did the same thing.

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  12. ...sorry to many trades at once, meant to say NE was offshore drilling not shipping industry

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  13. Brian,

    Played the bounce on CALI and I am out of that one.

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  14. EURO collapsing. PIGGS are heating for the JULY burn.

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  15. Joe,
    MRNA really heating up...might be a nice profit...

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  16. next stop for BORN looks like 6.53 unless it can hold 7.22 today

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  17. kli,

    BORN due to low float will give you violent swings, my kind of stock.

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  18. BORN was an excellent trade today, they took it down to 6.50 at the open with big gap down and then took it back up to 7.50, that's called traders heaven.

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  19. I like BORN too......scared of course but...if China takes off again and I think they are near the end of their tightening then these stocks will explode

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  20. MOBI gives even better swings than BORN!

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  21. Thanks Kli,
    I will stay away from AGQ.
    I have another question:
    Yesterday late afternoon, the miners were going down while gold & silver spot prices were still rising; if gold and silver spot prices are rising. Shouldn't the miners be going up as well?

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  22. kli,

    The statement," scared of course" is a recepie for disaster if you want to be a successful trader. Take emotion out of it, otherwise I will take you to woodshed.

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  23. NO dung.....miners frequently do not follow the price of the metals. I'm surprised miners are holding up today even though gold is strong. for instance gold is up and ANV is red......but not much I would not have been surprised to see ANV down over 3% today.

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  24. kli,

    The same concept applies to the statement, " excited", no fear and no excitement, only focus. You need to be a machine when you trade and cold as ice.

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  25. I know.....lets just say careful with the recent spike....want pull back but have position

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  26. The only tool you need is your BRAIN when you trade, block everything else which means go against your natural emotional reactions when you trade CONSTANTLY!

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  27. BTW all remember that O has emphasized this weekend on the Debt ceiling.....don't forget this as a stimulus for the market AND the miners too. I am doubtful they settle it this weekend but there is pressure now. Either way they do ultimately raise the ceiling and it is bullish for gold and miners....watch though if there is a runup to the news then you know what to do........sell the news

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  28. Thanks Kli,

    I need to learn how to fish.
    Can you point me to a good starting place, Books, websites, etc?

    I have been investing in miners based on spot price, and I have been lucky so far as not to lose my a..

    I am in SSRI now at $27.34, and don't know how to predict when to get out.
    Spot price was my compass

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  29. DCTH ripping. Good volume, RSI >81. Time to accumulate?

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  30. Hey Dung,

    Im a newbie as well. Kli and Joe pointed me in clif droke's direction. I order a couple books and signed up for his market analysis. He also offers a gold and silver report you can sign up for. IMO its worth the money. Check out his website, and good luck.

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  31. cliff drokes books are very worthwhile my advice is to order several of his books....they are quick reads and serve as nice reference sources

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  32. Thanks guys,

    It looks like Clff has a large selection of books. Hmmm where to start...

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  33. Dung Beetle and Ryan,

    Be very careful. Only play with what you can TRULY afford to lose. This is the most dangerous casino yet and hardly the place to learn to trade, at least with real money. Joe and Kli are seasoned, hardcore traders who will tell you the same. If you can't afford to lose what you are playing with your emotions will likely cause you to make rookie mistakes repeatly. Even experienced traders will get sliced to bits in this market. Make sure you know what you are getting into with regard to the time and energy you will need to spend daily to do this with any chance of success. This forum is a good source of information and market overview, but the trades Kli, Joe, and others are making are based on their own due diligence and vast knowledge and experience, only a fraction of which you will find here in their postings.

    That being said, good luck! It's a jungle out there.

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  34. Wilks,

    I hear you. I have a very small account (15k total) that I "play" with, not money I need for monthly expenses. I have learned a lot from this blog, but have learned more from "playing". I try to do my DD before buying, and have learned to walk away from the losers sooner than later. It's all about preserving your capital. I like the challenge of the market, and it has become a hobby for me. Best of luck to you.

    Ryan

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  35. Wilks is VERY CORRECT.....I have not mentioned a number of my holdings because I do not want you to follow my portfolio on a short term basis......I try to stay in my longer term/swing trades...like the miners and energy and EUO......so be very careful...I played SH recently to hedge my miners in this runup....I'm out of it this AM but I only mentioned it once a couple of days ago.....DTO is the same...you don't hold it you trade it fast

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  36. I don't trade the same as JOE.....I don't have the time nor the expertise nor the weight. Its what the market gives you though. I have to stay mostly in the slower to develop trades.....but if I can get into the right price I'll take a shot....I just can't play the intraday price swings with my day job

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  37. Thanks for chiming in Kli. I think I need to clarify my definition of money you can "afford to lose".

    First of all, if you do not have a positive net worth, then you do not have any money you can afford to lose. In other words, if your obligations (mortgage, car loans, credit card balance) exceed your bank balance and other owned assets, you have a negative net worth. In other words, you have NO money. All of your money is really spoken for.

    If you are a renter, then have at least six months living expenses in the bank, preferably a year, as many folks are finding out that six months is not enough time to find a new job should their old one come to an end. This still assumes that your credit card balance and vehicle loans are zero, or backed up by money in the bank.

    If you do have a positive net worth, then your "play money" should be small fraction of that number. That is truly money you can afford to lose and not jeopardize your future should your current state of employment go south, or other unforeseen events occur.

    That about sums it up.

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  38. Also, even if you own you home outright, and have no debt, you still need to have living expenses in the black for six months to a year, preferably more. Access to a home equity line will do in a pinch for putting food on the table and keeping the lights on, but it will put you further behind the eight ball when you do find another job.

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  39. I also hear you guys,

    I am playing with 3K, and I can afford to lose it, but it is very dear to me, and I don't know if I can remain emotionless about the possibility of losing it.

    I'e ordered a stack of books, and feel like I should get out of the market, at this point, until I read them.

    Give me a heads up when I should sell SSRI please. LOL

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  40. Hi all,

    I emailed Clif Droke, and asked him what books to start with, and he emailed me this list:

    1. Secrets for Profiting in Bull & Bear Markets, Stan Weinstein
    2. The Secret of Selecting Stocks for Immediate and Substantial Gains, Larry Williams
    3. Technical Analysis and Stock Market Profits, R.W. Schabacker
    4. Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, Edwin Lefevre
    5. Method in Dealing in Stocks, Joseph H. Kerr Jr.
    6. Juncture Recognition in the Stock Market, W.G. Bretz
    7. Market Momentum, Martin Pring

    Thanks all and have a good weekend

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  41. Hi, guys. Been to Colorado...yep, love playing that MOBI...Dang and Yoku also good. Gonna take a look at BORN. Beetle, watch s/r, channels, wms.% and mas for buy/sells...I don't intraday trade either b/c I'm terrible at it;)...fwiw and GL. Missed everyone and hope it was a good 4th. The West was hopping.

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  42. Hey sis - just had to sign up again with another account. I've been laying low as well...

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  43. All,

    Time and place for everything, when doing trading or business NO EMOTION, outside of that is back to exercising emotion , feelings. Wife & I are babysitting our grandson tomorrow ( he is 4 yrs old) and I am looking forward to it, which means shift from no emotion during trading and business to what makes us human:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i4DFmqozSIg&feature=related

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  44. Morning All,
    Glad to see your back on the swing of things Kli! Just thought I'd throw my two cents worth to dung since you mentioned your play money is still very dear to you that means you cant afford to lose it. Question: Would you be willing to stuff your play money in a paper bag, toss it out the car window driving down the freeway and be glad about it? Listen to Wilks you can get a far better return doing other thing with your money than give it to boys cause THEY will take it. Doing this trading thing since 2007 and have made a boat load of mistakes hoping you don't do the same! GL

    Joe enjoy your day with your Grandson :)

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