Thursday, July 7, 2011

NEW GAME IN TOWN ?


The multi-month shorting of the miner's complex appears to be ending. Don't get too excited but you have to play the hand you are dealt. If this was too much for your heart then go ahead and take some profit. Otherwise you run with the big dogs until the game changes. Right now it looks like Silver won't start get really beaten up until it crosses the 40 resistance band. If we get a nice beatdown there back to 36 then you may want to take a reload. Many of these miners should have another 50 to 75% run in them this year. Stocks like GPL SLW SSRI EXK SVM RIC are included in this subset. GFI EGO HL represent safer but with less upside potential to play. The latter three "usually" give you nice swing trades on these multi-month bull moves. That is assuming we are in a multi-month bull move.

Be aware that the usual tree shaking of the weak hands is SURE to occur and we have had a nice run here so it could begin within the next day or two. I hope so. If it does I'll readd some that I took profit on the past two days. The ANV volume spike marking its low was classic as the big boyz covered their shorts. Most of the miners had more subtle bottoms marked. I still have plaently of cash in case I'm wrong. I won't test the ponzi here with the end of QE proclaimed. It could be a very rocky ride ahead and I don't want to miss any panic selling.

The Eurozone should really start getting warm over the next few weeks. Even the PTB can't stop the PIGGS. The Europeans are much more aware of what the game is than the
self-proclaimed "enlightened and free" American sheeple. The Europeans have had this game played on them for centuries. There nations have been destroyed by TWO World Wars. They know who is pulling the levers. They also know that going to the streets is their only recourse. Their unions WILL strike. So I maintain that this summer and next will be highly volatile for the Eurozone collapse. As long as we pump the Casey Anthonies and the DSKs and the Visit to Canada nightly by the Royal anorexics I feel we can be placated a while longer.

My feeling now is all large pullbacks in the PMs and Miners will be brief and bought furiously from now on out. Strap in for the ride now. BTW the technical damage to the Euro today was fatal. gl all.


I hope you take the time to listen to the second half of Keiser interview on Europe

32 comments:

  1. DAMN! look at HNR two year daily an the short cover volume spike at the bottom last week.....you know what to do if you're in the casino....

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  2. took profit on ANV AG rolled some into GORO

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  3. took profit on some SLW and rolled lil into SSRI

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  4. dcth..awakening over last couple days..

    I guess I should have bought MOBI and BORN yesterday...instead of watching it...

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  5. BORN came to the market last yr thru IPO and it's in chinese consumer good sector, the float is only 5M and high of the yr was 20, they are supposed to earn $2 per share this yr and the shorting to 3.50 was pure manipulation, this one is not an rto scam. I would not be surprised at all if they take it back up to mid teens this yr. Any weakness in this one is a buy. I played it at the open today and will play it again. This one is still undervalued but as always we see what BOYZ do.

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  6. YOLU brought it up chuck.....

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  7. BORN is one of the few chinese stocks that will do well this yr, the down side is $3 from where it is now and upside is double from here, they have over 1000 employees, the float is only 5M shares, it's in consumer sector and with $2 earning per share, the P/E is still real low, for those of you who are not experienced traders and do not play with heavy shares, buy some and average down if BOYZ take it down, the risk/reward ratio for small investor is not bad.

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  8. Born-the 50 crossed the 200 on volume to add a caveat...

    Kli-yolu?

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  9. Chuck,

    Kli meant YOU not YOLU, he meant you brought up the stock.

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  10. DCTH needs to get and stay above 5.75 and the 50sma for further upside...

    CYTR- is in same boat with 50sma at .81....ment'd last week at .70 support...

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  11. Joe, Kli, Chuck, Ken, et al, what do you think of AOB?

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  12. Joe about a month ago, I thru out a theory here regarding GS and JPM opening funds up for china to the tune of 1 trillion from the get go...then GS comes out with china second half strong sentiment...

    it sure looks like they took many chinese stocks down to make that 2nd half call good for clients...

    just a theory...my question is why you think only couple chinese plays will work...

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  13. Chuck,

    When the BOYZ hammered the chinese stocks, they did it to majority of them regardless of whether each company was regular, IPO, or RTO, and once the short squeeze started, the one sthat came thru IPO got the most benefit, this yr the good ones would be seperated from bad ones and the ones that are good with solid earnings, low float,,etc will benefit which means after initial down turn and now squeeze, the real ones would continue the actual price they deserve and speculative ones with shady accounting will suffer. Think of it like the 90s with internet stocks, initially all went up, then they took a bath and the ones that were real were recognized and did well. This is when homework pays off, seperating good ones from scams and speculative. At the end of the hoopla earnings matter.

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  14. GS, JPM and other big BOYZ know which chinese stock is a scam, speculative and which one is really good and of course they will only tell to their selected client. The retail investor has the hardest job since they are the last one to find out which ones are good and solid and which ones are crap.

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  15. Hmmmmmm.....speaking of scams check out CALI......nice little far east stock moving and shaking today

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  16. You need to look at chinese stocks that came to indexes here thru reverse merger ( rto) as a shell with extreme caution. The ones that came recently thru actual IPO and are in solid position and growing sector will do well regardless of manipulation, and then you have big ones like BIDU, SINA,,etc which are large caps and their books and potential are well known.

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  17. Sorry chuck........YOU.....hehehehee....and I agree with your assessment of GS and CHINA.....should be some rips coming for the rightg ones....get your list

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  18. Joe, thanks for answer...here is where the retail investor meets the road kind of speak...

    these guys are good!..

    victory-Nktr is a symbol I watched before...will take a look back at it...first glance at 52 wk low, so much better looking here than 15..

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  19. Finally a blast from the past CFW gaining some ground....... Possible buyout coming...Chuck is it on your radar?

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  20. brian,

    CALI high was 5.50 and change...they ran it hard today then pushed it under 50, sitting just under it....maybe if they push it down further it could be a quick hit rebound play...or see if it crosses 2.67 and stays there...

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  21. Joe,
    Tape reading for CALI please? Oh and Chuck and I are now on your payroll...2% commission for the finders fee's.......lol

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  22. Kli,

    that HNR support at 10.60 is stout....its butting heads on 200 right now...

    I'm hoping it backs off here as the play is from 10.60 to here the last 2 mos...

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  23. Brian,

    Uncle Joe did not catch the upside on CALI so he played the other side of the coin which is smacking it down from $3.50.

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  24. Victory,

    Calls option activity is increasing on NKTR and stock moved over 7.35, usually that's bullish.

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  25. Thanks Joe,

    Speaking of the Chinese sector i thought AOB's action and chart looked like it was worth taking a look

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  26. I luv this story......very profitable business....just gotta have a truck and the know how......SCRAPPERS!!

    http://www.brokencountry.com/index.php/2011/07/03/riverside-cops-looking-for-stolen-fire-hydrants-and-manhole-covers/

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  27. Uncle Joe.......Loving this roller coaster ride CALI that is set up next to your woodshed...SWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEETTTTTTTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!

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  28. http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2011/07/07/closure-of-%E2%80%98fear-index%E2%80%99-etn-won%E2%80%99t-be-last/
    he VZZ remained active last week, trading as low as $9.68 as some investors may have been confused about how the liquidation would work. Anyone who panicked out at that point maximized their losses, while anyone who got in for under $10 will turn a quick profit.

    Where the VZZ closure feels familiar is that it is the second ETN to trigger a mandatory redemption this year. Barclays Capital Short D notes that offered leveraged inverse exposure to the S&P 500 Index got nailed shut after falling below $10 in April.

    Expect a small wave of similar product liquidations in the not-too-distant future, unless the sponsors of these products make changes to their prospectuses. That’s especially true with products like the VZZ that are tied to the volatile VIX, often known as the “fear index.”

    .....interesting... as less and less bets against vix thru eft and etn's are made should push it down right? or wrong?

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  29. RIC needs a correction to add....watch the RSI50 and expect no lower than a low 7.20 touch

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  30. Out of ANV completely.......waaaaa ego gone too.....gpl profit taken a little left. I have some dto here and its making me nervous......oh and rude.....look at SGG

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  31. Kli,

    DTO? haha, tough call, waiting to see if oil touches $100 again. SGG, the sugar ETN? seems like the RSI is getting on the high side. havent traded that one. by the way sold my EGO today, took the profit, though it was not big, since most of my buys were in the high 14's and 15's. the freaking news has me all screwed up. a little over a week ago, it was mkt is in tank mode, now everything seems fine and dandy. hiding in mostly cash. its funny QE2 ended and mkt rallies, does that take QE3 off the table for good now?

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