Thursday, July 21, 2011

PARADISE THREATENED


Of course there is always the calm before the storm. We've often talked about how relatively benign our medicine has been after the 2008 Crash. Actually it has been a monstrous Bull Market. At least for the ones out there that have equities. Many were left in a pile of dust in early 09 and elected to sit out the Great Casino. That CONfidence will NOT be restored anytime soon. Fool me once shame on you....fool me twice shame on me. Mom and Pop have seen this movie one too many times and know that this is not their daddy's market. These are end-o-days times. We're trying to restore CONfidence to the masses and trying to keep a hundred leaks a week from breaking the dam. Can anyone possibly heal these type of wounds? Not likely.

So how do you play it? NO ONE can guarantee anything in this game but there are some probabilities. One probability that is high is further disruptions and fear increasing. Unless we get a complete crash from a black swan then a series of crisis that are continually being managed will occur. This plays into the fear trade and precious metals. In spite of the efforts of the Central banks to suppress these headline prices on Gold and silver (to protect their fiat confidence) the buyers will continue to gravitate to this safety trade. Miners are a leveraged trade on the metals. IF and its a big IF I am right the miners trade has gone through a significant accumulation phase and is now ready for its next leg up which should be amazing this year. Monetization will continue to try and stem the debt implosion but this is increasingly apparent to many to be only a temporizing measure. So rather than publicize these efforts they will attempt to be more surrepticious until it becomes necessary to proclaim the QE of all QEs will be unleashed. This will have to happen but only after the market AND ECONOMY begin to show the next deflationary cracks. I don't wish for this so save you sighs. There just isn't any other probabilities.....Possibilities?? YES. Probabilities?? NO.

My miner trade is still my focus but the casino is still open just be careful all.

27 comments:

  1. Kli,

    HNR made a nice move over last week,looks like the 50 and 100 cross over 200 is what the mm's liked...

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  2. dung....I was watching this am at 1.60 and didnt pull the trigger....I now fell like bat guano...
    :)

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  3. may get those miners buy pts yet tom

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  4. $XEU should kiss the 144 before a turn off the bearish wedge

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  5. FSYS is back at that multiple bottom...23.19...

    will it jump up again...

    spell check on blog comment systems would be a great investment...case point above by that honest credit dude...

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  6. Looks like EUO is entering the strike zone.

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  7. GENE:
    "The company now says it expects the capital raising to be finalized on July 22, and at which time the securities are expected to recommence trading on both the NASDAQ and ASX."

    http://www.rttnews.com/ArticleView.aspx?Id=1668861

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  8. LLEN making a move. Will it hold up today or slowly fade as it has done lately.

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  9. ryan...and then she backs down....

    SCOK is one I'm keeping a close eye on...50sma is holding it down...its amazing how all the china symbols have identical charts, almost as if they are waiting for 50/100 crossovers then bam...

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  10. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sen-sanders-ny-feds-dudley-granted-aig-waiver-2011-07-21?link=MW_home_latest_news

    the haves and haves not....what a country...

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  11. Dung Gene looks like a good short to me.

    Kli lets play nine holes.

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  12. Oil has to take out 102.5 and HOLD......otherwise it tumbles.....today is the top of its most recent down channel.....ssoooooooooo

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  13. Creditguy,

    Yeah, LLEN has been pretty predictable. I feel it's close to breaking out, but which way? I'm betting to the upside. It looks like it is coiled and ready to go, IMO. Maybe this pm it will surprise and make a move. Good luck.

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  14. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  15. Kli, this stinks to high heaven...A PPT for Europe now.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cdo-heart-eurozone-just-became-europes-plunge-protection-team

    "To improve the effectiveness of the EFSF and address contagion, we agree to increase the flexibility of the EFSF, allowing it to intervene in the secondary markets on the basis of an ECB analysis recognizing the existence of exceptional circumstances and a unanimous decision of the EFSF Member States."

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  16. KLC,

    moving pieces around the chess board...they had the advantage of watching great teachers over last 3 years that gamed it here....

    it was as planned....

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  17. SIHI could be another chinese scalp...

    volume is picking up...institutions are in already..dd required...started small trade..

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  18. check out SINO chart...heeeheeeheee

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  19. KLC .....perfect....we know how to play it already...hehehhehe

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  20. Dang - what's up with pzg? Look away for a couple of weeks and all heck breaks out...

    Nancy - you still holding pzg? Got that impression going through the backlog of comments.

    At least SLW and SSRI are still positive for me, stinks not having time to be a little more nimble. Did I see a call for SLW to $58

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  21. why....yes you did homer.........hehehhe...58 and I stand by it this year

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  22. Thnx honest on FSYS heads up...............

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  23. Mr.Kli,

    Once again oil creeping up ever so slightly. nice gap between $105 and $110. gasoline prices where i live are already getting close to $3.70 from the $3.50's within the last week or two. DTO always on my radar, but not ready to pull the trigger. SLW took a hit today, would like some weakness tomarrow so i could begin building a position. I am waiting for a little pullback in gold before i reload on the gold miners, not sure if i get one, but on the daily charts of some of the miners, it looks like they can move down a little.

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  24. repost...We are currently in a takedown of the miners to shakeout the new weak longs. I'll provide what I think are key buy points. on SLW 33.80. look for an intraday tail on EXK within the next 7 trading days to pick up at 8.98....ANV watch a tail touch of sub 35...AG tail touch sub 21. GPL 3.38... SSRI tail touch sub 27. These are my suggestions for your buys. If they play the flush game these areas should be perfect for the flush. Here is the caveate....if you don't have a good core left then take weakness during the next two days to reestablish a position in your favs. We may only get a one or two day takedown.....also a HIGH probablility. My core is very small here and I will add some of these on weakness before the wish list numbers are achieved as I did today. Caution as always and remember CASH is king in this chop shop.

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  25. Kli,

    why the interest in GPL? really cant find much info on it.

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