Tuesday, July 19, 2011

TOTO I'M SCARED


Maybe we are pretending that we are still in Kansas but we are not even close anymore. We crossed that line a long time ago. After 2008 a new paradigm had to be born and the choices were bad and very bad. Time may tell which one was chosen or it may always be debated just as the choices during the Great Depression are still debated today. I am not going to pretend that I have the answers but there are certain facts that are self-evident. There is a major loss of CONfidence that is ebbing with every manipulative lie that leaks into the daily conscience of the American People. I use "American People" because the rest of the world at least until now was much better informed than our public was on how the international banking cartel ruled the world. Unfortunately its a little late for us to do a lot about the destruction of the rules and regulations that got us to this destructive part of our young democracy. We are most likely in the end-o-days for many of the excesses that we have enjoyed for decades. Our consumption of 25% of the world's yearly oil usage must and will come to an end. The wars and global manipulation to keep the prices here cheap will be changing out of necessity during the next decades. This will most likely be positive as it forces us to adapt to newer technologies using renewable sources of energy including conservation measures that were always available. These are nature's ways of mandating change.

Unfortunately there are still humans at the helm of this great ship and that always means that the changes will be unpredictable in their implementation. So don't expect a smooth transition to the land of OZ. It could be a bumpy ride. The old standards are not going to go without a fight. Large fossil fuel oil corporations have a strangle-hold on the politicians and that usually means that nature has to over-ride some fairly strong resistance. It will. Unfortunately for us that may come with a degree of strife. As the deflationary wave sets in across the global landscape one of the first elements that will be effected is energy consumption. You are already seeing the effects in the Middle East. The uprisings across the region now are economic in origin and they are going to only worsen as the Grand Supercycle flattens the region. Since the region has always been on the brink of disaster it shouldn't be much longer before one or more of these social media revolutions spills over into some super power conflicts. After all these countries are proxies for the super powers as they jockey for the ultimate blood of power that flows through this region. For years now we've controlled virtually every government in that region. It has come at a heavy price for our reputation within the region. None of the parties involved trust us any longer and the tenuous balance of power is only one nuke away from chaos.

I have a feeling the match that starts the fire will come from this region. We are in a precarious economic position and nothing galvanizes power in stressed populations than a major outbreak of hostilities and the resultant nationalism. A lot of political ills can be cured. Full employment is certainly a by-product.

Hopefully we dodge the ultimate exchange but eventually the piper is going to have to be paid for years of excesses and this Super-Cycle will not be denied.

I think what makes me feel uncomfortable with out current outlook is how easily manipulated the uninformed/misinformed public here is. The steady diet of news on the Royal couple and the Casey Anthony story dominate the news and perform a lobotomy on the masses. So escaping the ultimate cleaning will probably not be possible.

For the doubters on how Gold and Silver will perform just look what turmoil, doubt, and fear are doing to the trade now. I still like the miners for the rest of the year but I intend to try and trade them. As usual I cannot close without mentioning the EURO currency. Its on the edge and its about to fall. Enjoy the day. gl to all.

27 comments:

  1. One point that isn't often mentioned is that Americans may actually become HAPPIER with LESS. This will add to the deflationary wave, as American realize they really don't need all the junk they are buying now.
    A couple years ago, I was speaking with a Senior VP of a major Grocery Store chain in my area. He attended various business meetings, etc. He mentioned then that the concern of the business community was that the "Habits" of Amercan will change with time. He was implying that people will buy less, yet get along just fine. This will hurt our consumer-based economy.

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  2. Well for what its worth Doc I'm one of those happy folks doing more with less. Doing things the old fashioned way of saving and purchasing is a more rewarding way to go. Having no debt and really analyzing needs vs wants really makes life a lot less stressful! As a matter of fact Amex is going to put out an APB on me to see if I still exist..... heheheheh

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  3. fired a bullet at STP, solars getting some love today.

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  4. someone met'd CVM...look at news and vol..

    Also a good european stock to look at is AIXG..

    was hoping it would get to 24 area before buy...but that might be for not....

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  5. Ahhhhh.....bout time for a reload....hehhehe

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  6. Kli,

    do you think FCEL might have bottomed at $1.26. almost seems like a double bottom. hit $1.26 june 29th and retested that low on july 18th. its started to move on decent volume today.

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  7. Kli - you really think the American public is more aware? I don't get that sense - you try to talk to most about what is happening you get that blank vacant look like they don't have a clue. I hope you are right.

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  8. NO inlet.....sorry if I confused....many are getting their eyes opened......unfortunately if you increased the number of informed by ten-fold.......you still only have at the most 20-30 million that are now informed.......you do the math....we have 350 million people.........that is why the PTB just laugh.....I have even began reevaluating my entire thesis on this.....The PTB deserve to control the masses.....there are some really frightening groups within the masses....really there just are not any good choices as an outcome

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  9. Sadly, When the politicians can pass bill that their base "asks" for, and the politicians know will get vetod; the politicians are only doing this to create political cover. We will then get a resolution to the problem which solves nothing, delays the inevitable, and continues to line the pockets of a few.
    The "People" are happy when their standard of living goes up over a period of months. Lies and debts can provide what the people want.

    In so many ways, I would like our country to take it's pain now and get it over with so we can begin a real structural recovery. I don't think it will happen.


    oh....closed out PEP short for a $2.50 gain, long COCO and some Biotechs, but sadly shaken out of CSLN (for a profit) before the current big run.

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  10. and I am long LLEN :)
    SLW from 32.5 in my HSA

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  11. Kli,

    I didnt pay attention to the gold/silver trade today. was happy the miners pulled back since i want to get back in. do you think there is more to this pullback $HUI $540- 550 range and SLV possibly to $35?

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  12. Rude IF I am lucky....I get a move on the miners through the 527 HUI resistance band in the next few days to shake out the new weak longs.......hehhehehe.....IF i am lucky. I don't want to chase the trade much before then but that seems to create the "most damage scenario".....gl

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  13. You all know the game......use it to your advantage

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  14. Kli,

    haha, "IF", $HUI will be on my radar tommarrow for sure. i dont want to miss the next move up. hopefully there is a nice drop tomarrow so i can scale in. do you own any miners at the moment? and besides the typical gold/silver/miners like SLW,EGO,AUY,GG, do you think PZG is a viable company, it is trending down towards $3.00 again. what surprised me about PZG was it trended down or flat when the gold rally was running. as always thank you for your responses, you have nailed the miner trades for the most part.

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  15. I would think the next optimal entry time is 6-7 trading days:

    http://swingcycles.blogspot.com/2011/07/inverted-h-explained-in-terms-of-cycles.html

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  16. Inlet,

    thanks, I like your cycle analysis, very interesting stuff. seems like cycle analysis and TA would work very well. any books or websites you recommend to learn more? thanks

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  17. "there are some really frightening groups within the masses"

    'better the devil you know than the devil you don't'

    I won't go there where the PTB "deserve" anything.

    You are now seeing infighting among some of the PTB, Murdoch and Royals. The public doesn't seem to care about being hoodwinked but they do care if they are hungry or lose their supply of recreational drugs.

    Paper markets overall are increasingly unstable, whether by design or a little real chaos slowly creeping in.

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  18. Rude -

    Cliff Droke has written on the subject. Or you can look at this JM Hurst book online:


    http://www.forexmt4.com/_MT4_Systems%20Documentation/J.M.%20Hurst%20-%20The%20Profit%20Magic%20of%20Stock%20Transaction%20Timing.pdf

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  19. It seems to me that they are doing everything they can to keep the markets from dropping. I think that there is so much margin in use right now that it would not take much to create a major market crash. I guess this is what it means when the policies in place have not reduced extreme risk taking. Volume is way to light right now to believe in the Bull. I am guessing, Kli, that this is why you and Joe are wanting to trade instead of making any 6 month swings.

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  20. six month swing = recipe for disaster

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  21. Kli,

    when the debt ceiling is raised what effect do you think it will have on gold? do you think it will just be a short term "fear off" trade.?

    another thought, earnings have been pretty good for the mkt leaders, cant ignore the aapl, goog, ibm ect.. makes me wonder if this leg up got alot of room to go, or is this the "cream of the earnings" about done. the AAPL/GOOG feel good stories wont last forever. does anyone think the earnings to come out in the near future will be more disappointing or surprise to the upside. anyone have any thought on mkt direction thru the rest of earnings?

    Inlet, thanks for the info.

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  22. I got stopped out at 39.00

    SLW......sorry ...I tried to hold the core.

    I had to much profit on the table

    so I live a day longer....LOL

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  23. I will have a "wish list" of expected buy points for my favorite miners in tomorrows post.....most correspond with a sub 50 rsi and sub key resistance points....this will provide a maximum flush of the newbie longs......

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  24. kliguy38

    I saw your post on turds site...

    so your thinking about getting back in SLW

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  25. back in the day....on the old Comet gold site I posted .....SLW is a alt to SLV..

    with out the BS that SLV has..

    you do the math.

    paladin

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  26. if they give it to me .......yeh

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