Saturday, July 9, 2011

WE'VE GOT SOME JOBS


I have a feeling that there may be a couple of problems ahead for "the plan". First, there is NO plan. Second there is no plan. So what is going to happen? Well I think that we are about to experience a complete and utter collapse. That is usually what happens when a bus full of gasoline is rolling down a road and about to go off a cliff. What else can you call it? THERE ARE NO JOBS. THERE WILL BE NO JOBS. Remember when Madoff was discovered to be a ponzi. On the message boards the first questions asked by many people were "Where is the money?" No one could comprehend that a 56 Billion dollar fund had NO MONEY. They thought he had hid most of it. They could not comprehend the simplicity of the math of a ponzi and how it WORKS. You see.....things that appear very complex to the outside world of a ponzi are usually relatively elemental. Its just simple math..... There was ZERO money. NADA! NONE! Bernie simply maintained his vast yearly returns by paying out to the "lucky" ones that redeemed before the unlucky lower bigger part of his pyramid.....until he ran out of money.

This is where we are today. We've run out of time on the ponzi. We've milked the capital from the world until the debt has reached a state that we can't pay out anymore interest on it. We are just in the process of letting the bankers pick the carcasses of the rotting carrion. No one can make a move for fear the music will stop again and they will lose their seat. The banks.....big...small....medium...all refuse to lend any money that isn't virtually guaranteed because they know the music is about to stop. They know the bus is running again towards the cliff. The big investment banks are still playing their games as fast as possible until the music finally quits. Hell.....they would front run their grandmas right now for a sawbuck. The promised transparency and restored confidence never came. The investment community is locked and loaded all right, but the gun is aimed at their own head. Its just a matter of time and this whole enchilada blows. Even Joe Blow on the street senses the whole charade is nearing the end. You can't put this genie back in, but they're gonna pretend to keep trying however.

The job losses are structural. You've read that here as long as two years ago...now you are hearing it more an more in the mainstream media. Sturctural job losses cannot be repaired by monetization of the debt. Structural job losses as an example are the millions of jobs in construction created by hot money ginning up phony high home prices and mortgage fraud. This entire scheme was conducted with the government aiding and abetting the industry sector and the bankers financing it. It will NOT be coming back for decades. There were millions of jobs created without any educational backround in this sector. They are gone. Meanwhile self sustaining industries were allowed to be shipped factory by factory durning those housing boom years to other countries. THEY are gone. THAT is structural. The skilled workers in those industries are gone. They are in aisle 2 at Home Depot. They are now 53 y/o and don't even know how to use a digital tool and dye machine.

Didn't you wonder when the CNBS talking heads bragged in the boom boom years about how the weighting of the financials in the SnP was over 40% that something was desperately wrong with our country? Seriously?? 40% of the SnP was FINANCIALS! That had to send alarm bells off that we were dying as a country.....but it didn't. No one even blinked.

Its going to take a much longer time with a true cleaning and reset of government policy and a restoration of CONFIDENCE. REAL CONFIDENCE. That is only brought about by a country that is governed by its people. Not a facade of corporatocracy/fascism. This will have to happen and it will take years for this trust to be restored. Sometimes we have to hit bottom to see the light and I am afraid we are going to be doing just that. One way or another this mess will have to be cleaned up. How and when it takes place is up for debate but one way or another the can kicking is going to get harder and harder. Ladies and gents you are witnessing history and the "old way" of "fixing" the game is about to meet a cleaner. gl this weekend

21 comments:

  1. Guest post @ Zerohedge. Right in line with today's message......

    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-shape-things-come

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  2. I don't think having nothing to lose is the only way to trade with no fear.

    Practice is the mother of skill.
    Skill gives confidence, and confidence conquers fear.

    That being said:

    The time to take counsel of your fears is before you make an important battle decision. That's the time to listen to every fear you can imagine! When you have collected all the facts and fears and made your decision, turn off all your fears and go ahead!
    George S. Patton

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  3. Dung,

    You mentioned yesterday:

    "I am playing with 3K, and I can afford to lose it, but it is very dear to me, and I don't know if I can remain emotionless about the possibility of losing it."
    ----------------------------------------------

    All this hoopla, questions and statements about 3K. If 3K which these days is NOTHING concerns you then you are wasting your time, energy and effort. Those who can not remain emotionless in the market with only 3K will have a heart attack if number is much higher.

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  4. Joe -
    as the cost of education goes $3k is relatively cheap. ;)

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  5. Inlet
    As always, keeping it simple!

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  6. Inlet,

    That's assuming the person gets his education once it takes a hit on relatively cheap, most will get even more emotional and would want to make up the losses which would result in more expensive education, heheeeeee!

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  7. Joe,
    You must have been watching me on the security cams when I used to play Vegas or should I say Vegas played me would be more accurate..... Just wish it was only a 3k lesson! hehehehe

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  8. Dung.....I will take the side of Inlet on this one somewhat.....you are going to get a lesson for 3K...this is the bear of all bears....this will be a historic slaughter of all time. How they do it remains to be seen but it will be wicked and most likely it will flush you. You are more than welcome to trade in this game just be aware that the participants here are seasoned veterans of the 2008 crash. Many came out of the 08 crash with jagged wounds and are here trying to maintain a format of communications for their survival. They know whats coming. People like Joe are in the predator class. They have the brain and the muscle to move stocks by themselves so be aware. This blog also has a large group of readers and participants that are overseas so you will have varied input at times on the state of affairs...you will learn a lot if you survive..don't expect much sympathy though...youve been warned.

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  9. Dung,

    Patton's statement is correct, how ever you need to understand that Patton had the knowledge, experience, muscle, and the resources to be able to go ahead and prove his theory. He was also mentally very tough and EMOTIONLESS when it came to art of COMBAT. Stock market is COMBAT, it requires efficiency, brutality and lack of emotion. Patton understood and was very efficient in the art of deception which plays a very important role in combat and stock market is the same way. Can you take a hit without getting knocked out, stand up and fight. There is no such thing as nice guy in combat. Wilks suggestions yesterday is correct.

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  10. Trying to make some sense out of this theater of the absurd. Yesterday's jobs report was dismal, preceeded by the equally bad May report, which was further revised down anyway. Yet, the market shrugged and pretty much finished flat yesterday. Maybe there's some stealth POMO going on because the algos went into buy mode in the last hour.

    So, if the jobs report can't knock this market down, I wonder what will do it? I finally put some cash to work with silver miner plays (EXK, SSRI, SLW) and planning on establishing a core with GDX soon. Hearing a lot of chatter that that silver beatdown is over and they couldn't take it to < $30.

    What is the outlook for the market now? I think we may need a combination of bad news in succession + unknown black swan event to knock this ponzi down. I think I'm going to start holding my nose and start buying until the market says otherwise.

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  11. Just by accident, knew Patton's daughter and grandchildren, one grandaughter very well...they are quite a family, haven't seen them since the '60s ;). And Bud, agree there HAS to be stealth QE.

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  12. There's an article in Phils's Stock World from Lee Adler of the Wall Street Examiner. He wrote about Friday's dismal employment numbers.

    He wrote that Tax Receipts did increase from Febuary thru May when compared with last year's values. However, this June, there was a sharp drop. He believes that as of this June, there are no more people working now (paying jobs) then there were last year. Also, Full-time Employment jobs did not increase significantly and the "Employment to Population" ratio did not increase in June.

    He believes all this could suggest that the economy is falling back into recession. Since QE2 has been propping everything up and now it is now ending, he believes we are going to be "sucked into a black hole".

    I too wonder just how long this can go on. But, with the market recovering somewhat on Friday, it seems to be shaking off bad news. Thus, Full Steam Ahead.

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  13. I remember something a great trader once told me: on low volume, everything is noise.... He was referring to intraday, but right now I am extrapolating to wider time frames.

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  14. Max interviews Steve Keen on the banks
    http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2011/07/10/on-the-edge-with-max-keiser/

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  15. everybody wake up for monday...emergency eu meeting regarding Italy....

    euro becomes extinct before first qtr 2012....no wonder the mayan calendar ends...

    euro crashes american banks, obama asks for bailout...these guys are good...2 bailouts in 3 years...kill the banks...

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  16. All a process chuck......all a process. ... 10 fingers 10 toes.....ben can use um all to stop the leaks.......but then what?

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  17. Yup Chuck...its gettin warmer....

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-10/consob-may-ban-restrict-naked-short-selling-at-meeting-sunday-night.html

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  18. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-10/euro-falls-to-two-week-low-on-concern-region-s-debt-crisis-is-worsening.html

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  19. well....scooby says....rut oh......

    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2011/0711/1224300497397.html

    bond markets not going to like this....

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  20. To all,

    I will be busy over coming months and will try to post as time allows..I enjoy the banter, ideas, wisdom and honesty of all the posters here..I have learned a lot...

    cheers and have to leave with this tidbit..
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Delcath-on-Preliminary-List-prnews-354559443.html?x=0&.v=1

    dcth press release is out already for am...maybe buy it after market sells off in morning...

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  21. thanks always chuck.......time is precious and you are a valuable member

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