Wednesday, August 3, 2011

CRISIS!


Or paraphrasing a famous operative NO CRISIS SHOULD GO TO WASTE and pass that trader the toilet paper. We supposedly have no Quantitative easing now. Fear provides a great way to sell Treasury debt. Just look at the movements in our bonds. What a fortunate/serendipitous turn of events and again pardon the redundancy but "just at the right time". Of course we have over 500Billion in treasuries near term to dump...er..sell. What better way to move a lot of worthless merchandise than to have a "fear sale"...er..."fire sale". Imagine peddling bonds of a country that can't possibly pay back their debt. You have to be rather inventive and these guys are the best. I love it when people castigate Ben for being stupid. That is incredibly naive. These are well planned strategies that benefit fully the private bankers that Ben represents. Unlike many peeps that believe Ben is working for the U.S. you have to remind yourself constantly that Ben is representing a private global banking concern. If you think like "they" do then you become more aware of some of the strategies and can take advantage of the outcomes.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-02/obama-bonds-proved-world-beaters-as-congress-played-chicken-with-u-s-debt.html

When you have the world's reserve currency its quite predictable to determine the direction of U.S. bonds when fear creaps into the markets. Who needs QE when you have fear. Diseased debt gets sold very quickly when you have the least terminal (supposedly) of all the currencies. What you really have is the most liquid of investments to hide in when you are losing confidence in your own central banks and currencies. Buying U.S. treasury debt may be a lousy choice but its better than being fried in a worse currency. Right now the big money is jockeying for position in any "safe haven". The BEST currencies are Norway and Sweden but only so many to go around and the dollar/treasuries still get the bulk.

You'll see more illiquid assets accumulated like land but more importantly commods will catch a bid BIG TIME once the trillions of treasuries start to get liquidated....be aware a large ammount of money sometime in the next few years will form an avalanche into commods and equities.

Short term we still have some run on the core miners but this is one treacherous mess. Trying to find a tradeable bottom will be at least a couple of days. Let's see what friday brings with the "terrible jobs number" that EVERYONE knows is coming. We just might get a great bear trap being set. That's why Joe is laughing.

Sit tight with your core or take a little profit on the upticks. My guess is tomorrow is a bounce day. I don't see a monster short squeeze until AFTER the Job's report maybe Friday but its coming soon. Remember when there is blood in the streets.... A very nice scenario would be a bounce/minor short squeeze with tomorrow's jobless claims that set up for a nice flush on friday and into Monday with a short squeeze later Monday and into Tuesday. That's Waaay to predictable to trade so don't out guess yourself and overtrade. Just remember until Gold breaks 1700 its still short term bullish in my book...but if it pulls back before mid 1700s thats just beeeutiful and VERY healthy.

25 comments:

  1. ATPG looks very oversold, yet falling further. RSI hasn't been this low for awhile.
    Perhaps a bounce at 12??
    No position yet.

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  2. ABAT taking a whooping...wasn't that just on someone's radar?

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  3. ABAT can break 1.....I'll load it if it does.

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  4. watching chinese stocks....still holding up.

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  5. Homer,

    It's good that ABAT is taking a beating, the cheaper the better, also keep your eye on BORN, next Wednesday is their earning. Neither of these two chinese stocks are reverse mergers. When I see the tape turn I will be all over them.

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  6. kli,

    Yesterday they gave LLEN a nice squeeze, have both ABAT and BORN on daily hawk watch, you will see when tape turns and volume increases.

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  7. Homer,

    Did not take long before ABAT was taken above 1.20 after initial manipulation today, 1.20 daily for now is the new support, as long as it does not close below 1.20 that would give you the clue. Their earning is scheduled for Monday.

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  8. You guys gotta read this...

    "Gov't will borrow $72B in debt auctions next week"

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Govt-will-borrow-72B-in-debt-apf-3907839998.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=

    Look at the 4th paragraph... The U.S. government currently borrows 40 cents of every dollar that it spends.

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  9. Jay,

    Not only that's not new news, the numbers mentioned are not correct either, Uncle actually borrows 0.60 cents of every dollar NOT 40 cents, heheeeeee!

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  10. Thanx Joe - Born is definitely getting ripped. lol

    You think PZG still in play these days? We're around a break even point right now on average. Though we don't hold very much as it never quite made a "decent" low to buy more or high to sell. I think Nancy might still be packing as well. It just doesn't seem to track like other miners do, wondering if you see something I don't.

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  11. Homer,

    PZG's future depends on actual Gold/silver reserves they hit and the market is waiting to see how much resources they are going to have, my suggestion which you did not listen to was at 2.60 buy heavy and take profit at 3.40/3.50 and it did hit both targets. If you do not hold much shares then let it ride and see if it holds 2.50/2.60 or not. RIC and SVM in my opinion have been better plays recently. By the way the bullion is out performing the gold/silver stocks, that would change at some point but for now the actual physical is where the real investment is.

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  12. Hi Kli

    Good interview on the pan Asian gold exchange
    http://m.youtube.com/index?desktop_uri=%2F&gl=US#/watch?v=cU8VoafEb00

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  13. Thanx again Joe - I think it was more a matter of not understanding the expectations then simply not listening. I always try to listen!! ;-)

    But I do admit I was trying to get a deal by having an order in at $2.50 and only managed to get some of it at $2.60. I was lucky even then to be paying attention to the market and blog.

    But we really don't have much...

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  14. The tape turned nicely again for ATPG at 11.90, the key squeeze for today is 12.30, if it holds 12.30 at the close then it might be the start of squeeze and not just an intra-day trade.

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  15. Hi All,

    I've never purchased physical gold before. Where should I go to buy some? A local jewelry store?

    Has anyone tried doing it online? How did the experience go?

    Thanks,
    Jay

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  16. anyone trade KNDI? a few weeks ago it had a huge pop from 2.00 to over $3.00 i am not sure i am enthusiastic about the niche mkt its in , but it may have possibilities as an interesting alternative energy play. if it drops to the $2.20's it may be a nice play.

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  17. Joe,

    FCEL reports earnings in 3 weeks, do you think it may run up some into earnings? its been trading in a .20cent range for weeks. i thought it had a double bottem weeks ago, that wasnt the case, but there has been some insider buys recently which is a positive. the thing that i dont like about the company is its in such a niche market. it seems so limited on revenue growth because it so expensive to install there equipment and so dependent on places adopting clean energy. if natural gas would take off, it would be nice for FCEL.

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  18. Although I am a rookie trader I have some experience with physical silver, and I believe these people to be reputable.

    http://www.golddealer.com/

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  19. Good bad or indifferent, I've dealt with provident for silver...seemed fine.

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  20. Looks like LDK could be forming the right shoulder of and Inverse H&S pattern.

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  21. Homer,

    This song is for you, throughout my life I always found listening to music especially when I am working as one of the main tools to maintain focus, and control unproductive emotion within myself, of course each individual has a different taste of what they consider good music and depending on what I am trying to achieve I listen to different type of music. For me it has always worked:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEMuAnFH_lM&feature=related

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  22. ABAT today is why I never use stop-losses. I'd rather go down with the ship than get knocked into the water by a seagull in the first hour of the voyage.

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  23. For micro-investments in physical you can also find smaller bags of 90% junk silver on ebay.

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  24. All,

    Check out what happened to DNDN after hrs, tomorrow would be good time to play the bounce.

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