Tuesday, August 23, 2011

DIVE DIVE!


Well overnite futures show some buoncy but will they end up like recent rises with a quick look above the water and then a fast submersion? Gold needs a severe beatdown but like most sneak moves the trade continues to race while most retail are standing by waiting for the perfect reentry. The only thing that makes this parabolic move tolerable for this participant was the paper position in the miners that I have taken which also threatens to show more upward movement here...and of course my PSLV position that has actually outperformed gold percentage wise.

If you don't realize just how treacherous things are then note that Soc Gen is involved in a full bank run. They will not let this bank go down. At least not this year. Don't expect much more than a bump within yesterday's SnP rectangle to play out. I included an SnP 2 day chart for some resistance levels in green.

$HUI is a break out now we are getting some real strong candles in the miners and I expect follow through....with one big caveate. If they beat down gold here the miners will certainly follow. If you have a large position then at least take some profit in the near term....but an aggressive hold here just might hit a homerun. You're the captain and you have to take the shot.

Joe expects some of our energy plays like ATPG SGY to really bounce hard when "the bottom" is hit. We aren't there yet. Also watch ALU. Opportunities for buy and hold (at least for a month or so may arise in some of these beaten down players....again...we arent there yet.

Right now I'd like to see a push back up to 1200 for some short entries but that may take some antics from the Fed......so shorting will depend on how the market responds BEFORE the Bernank speak on Friday. gl all










27 comments:

  1. http://www.financeandeconomics.org/Articles%20archive/2011.08.17%20Bank%20Credit%20Repo.htm

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  2. Yesterday big boyz took JASO down to new 52 week low for max pain, today some short covering by hedge funds started, high of the yr is over $10 and yesterday it was taken down to 3.17.

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  3. Joe,

    Are they using lower oil prices to drive alternative energies into the abyss meme?

    Btw-when oil does hit its next low, your call to buy is the real deal....peak oil has happened..no doubt about it...at least peak oil in cheap extractable form...from here on out, it will be expensive to pull out...

    I'll be loading up for long term to hand my kid....

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  4. Chuck,

    Hedge funds and GS used the excuse for lower oil prices to hammer the alternative energies like JASO and now they are starting to cover shorts and go long, and as far as peak oil, you are correct as well, if you recall about 5 months ago I talked about what peak oil means. I just looked at lows for JASO during 2008/2009 crash when oil was at $32 a barrel and the low for JASO was around $2, they have already taken this puppy down from $10 to $3 and oil now is in mid 80s and S&P much higher than 600s. Yesterday was textbook on JASO, they got rid of stops and what ever margin call others had.

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  5. By the way chuck, the real low in short to intermediate term for oil would be 69/70, and that would be short lived if they decide to take it that low, either way JASO is starting to look attractive with down side of possible another $1 and upside of 50% to double from where it is now.

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  6. LDK having a big day too.
    Perhaps both LDK & JASO have established their lows.

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  7. you probably could add YGE,SOL, TSL and FSLR to the list too. i guess it depends on which one has the most bang for the buck. if solar rises i dont think anyone would lose either way.

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  8. joe, atpg is like a yo-yo...treating you well :)

    might be trade, shorting insurers with heavy presence in southeast tomorrow...or late today...I have no idea who that would be

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  9. Kli,
    Commenting on your article above.
    I believe you posted an article from Armstrong last week. In that article, didn't he commented that for the US, as the reserve currency, it would be LESS inflationary to simply print US dollars, than it would be to borrow?? The Repo plan above would avoid printing new dollars. Seems as though the FED has made itself into the "new" American bad boy and perhaps this was purposeful. Americans/MSM are speaking out against printing new dollars (ie. QE3). Thus, the FED can sneak this Repo plan in.
    Maybe I am wrong about what Armstrong wrote--I'll have to see if I can find that article later.

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  10. 5.8 earthquake off virginia...maybe it was thomas jefferson turning in his grave....

    2012 is going to be one interesting year

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  11. Yup felt that puppy up here on LI pretty good jolt!

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  12. DZZ is so low that a .40 c move is 11%....

    crazy times...

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  13. Chuck,

    ATPG is traders dream come thru, both side of the coin, yesterday short and today long, heheeeeeee!

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  14. Dream come true....daaaaa, not thru, darn synthesizer!

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  15. Homer,


    Today's theme song trading ATPG was:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ARgIC0L9dDc

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  16. OSIR is making 5% moves up and down also..

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  17. Chuck,

    ATPG is a type of stock that I call bad company ( in a good way) and it requires special attention, my kind of stock, heheeeeee!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ww5GXbk58R0

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  18. bought some RWM...will add on way down..

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  19. Will asia buy the gold dip tonight,if they do I'm buying some DZZ in morning for day trade only...

    seems a lot of purpose to knock gold down here and kli called it so...what the heck

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  20. Honest, love the Thomas Jefferson comment...it's a reasonable explanation. Great whites circling BAC again, 6.30...have you looked at that one Joe? Also PM opex on Thurs. so maybe they reach a low then. I want/need to get used to shorting ind. stocks, looked at BAC @10, didn't pull the trigger.

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  21. Nancy,

    I have been watching BAC, not going long or short on that one. Sprint ( S) today did o.k. due to news, see if it has more upside tomorrow or not.

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  22. I'm also getting the feeling is bofa is toast....they might make example of it to placate the public...take it under the guise of a national bank....that way they can cover credit lines, cdo's and bonds under its wings...avoid the lehman debacle...

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  23. BOA will be carved up like a turkey at thanksgiving and the recipients of the unlucky bird already are smacking their lips.....yum yum....BOA was never a club member....only a wannabe....they were used in 2008 like a 2 dolla ho to absorb the sewer of Country wide etc...Ken Lewis was a SCHMUCK

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  24. http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/image/2011/summer-heat-unravels-arctics-icy-blanket

    Global warming...don't believe the Govt. conservative lies, its real.....

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  25. Irene...good night Irene

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/025713.shtml?5day?large#contents

    A storm aimed at wall street..

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  26. I think I'll play with BAC tomorrow, on the short side, see what happens. From the "hindsight is 20/20" department, I wish I had not covered my GS short in the high $120s. I have no idea if it'll go any lower, so unwilling to go short again at these levels.

    I remember Joe was saying if "they" wanted to, GS could go to zero and no one would know why. We'll see how that one plays out.

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