Wednesday, August 24, 2011

DON'T FORGET


Nature does not. This essay has a purpose and it's to challenge your preparedness. I am well aware that most of you have done nothing to prepare for shortages of food or water or energy. That is just human nature. The changes that are coming will not just be economic they will also be spectacularly ecological at times. There is no reason to enumerate the potential catastrophies that are going to befall the unsuspecting masses as we stress the planet and encroach upon the limits of its sustainability. We have gone long past that barrier years ago. Now we are just skipping rocks on the edge of the abyss. It can last years longer or it can end rapidly for many sectors of the globe as imbalances created by the current economic crisis put these areas in jeopardy. As more natural disasters tax existing infrastructure and the ability to respond... the likelihood of a repeat of the Katrina debacle will increase. Imagine as we enter into a devastating deleveraging across this country that saps the municipal and state agencies' resources AND we layer on a series of devastating natural catastrophes. Sounds dramatic but probably more likely than an apocalyptic end of the world catastrophy. These events have a profound impact on limited resources and can trigger wide ranging public mood breakdown.

Our planet has a limited ammount of resources. Let's assume for arguments sake that NO apocalyptic event ends our earth as we know it. What is more likely are man made and nature made shortages of precious resources in the NEAR TERM. Can you provide for your family if dislocations take place over a period of weeks? Months? Or longer? While we play in the casino I only want you to look around you long enough to be aware that simple precautions now will protect you from sudden dislocations created by looming economic problems and unforseen nature events. THEY DO HAPPEN and they are happening with greater frequency. Don't expect a drowning government to take care of you if these events increase in frequency. Maybe you are uncomfortable with letting your family or neighbors believe you are too doom and gloomy. Maybe you believe they will recommend a visit to a therapist. Fine....get a little courage and leadership in your life and let them know (with a SMILE) that it doesn't hurt to take simple precautions. The disaster you see above happened in my back yard. Thousands of people in a matter of seconds were homeless and many were killed. Most had made no preparations. I suggest that when damaging earthquakes happen in non-earthquake regions of this country you may want to make some plans. Water, food, heating, emergency shelter, etc. Not just guns and ammo. Get involved....do some DD.....Chuck's commentary is not extreme. Wake up.














48 comments:

  1. To those concerned about climate change:

    I have an Atmospheric Science degree with specialization in statistical and numerical modeling. (I did study dynamic modeling with the 32 hours of math it required as well)

    I am a climate change skeptic, yet open minded to the concept.

    I break the climate debate into 3 questions which must be each be answered "Yes" to justify changing our behavior.
    1) Is climate change happening?
    2) Is it caused by human activity?
    3) If it is happening, can we reverse it?

    My thoughts:
    1) It might be happening. I see more evidence that is, than it is not. Statistical modeling on this is seriously flawed.
    2) Dynamic models show that it is our CO2 emissions that are causing it. Dynamic models are only as good as the theories that are put into them. I think it is possible that natural cycles have more effect than humans.
    3) I don't think there is anything the western world can do to stop global warming if it is happening. The amount of reduction in resource consumption it would take would reduce standard of living to a politically impossible level while other parts of the world replace our CO2 emissions with their own. This turns our efforts into simple wealth transfers with no net change in climate.

    The planet does have a limited capacity with potential supply crashes in the future. With population growth, we will reach these limits.

    Just baseline of my thoughts.

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  2. Thanks Ken for the thoughtful response, It seems to me that we are driving down a road, we know it has a dead end, yet we are still pedal to the metal...

    change can happen slowly, if we want it..I see the real global warming threat as a dying ocean..

    Nancy would be up 7% on BAC right now...nice call

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  3. NKTR had a strong day yesterday and looks strong today so far.
    Perhaps some sector rotation into biotech is occurring.

    I too have concerns about the planet and have wondered just how many people it can adequately support.

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  4. Short DGP at the open, heheeeeee!

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  5. Joe, dzz opend 6C under yesterday...picked up little for day trade as posted yesterday...out now...9% gain...

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  6. there are some real good theories about sustainable resources (such as food) that our methods and technology allow us to increase capacity. The problem is much like out current economic problems where this capacity can crash hard. That is the real risk.
    Demand for energy and population growth in Africa and Asia will not stop, yet there is not enough food and energy available for everyone. We really do need a cheap energy solution, but it is a wild card that may not happen.

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  7. Support level you guys want to watch for Gold is 1650, if it holds and I do not mean today, then correction on Gold is over, if it breaks below 1650 then 1400 is the next support.

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  8. 1650 break is key.....wunder if they stick a tail through it....hehehehehehe

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  9. The healthy correction for Gold itself after recent run ups would be around 30% and that's 30% from the top which is 1900 ( let's see if they give it that 30% correction and that would not be straight down 30% either). Gold is in bull market and will remain so for at least the next 5 yrs, having said that, as I mentioned before nothing goes up straight till the end of bull market which means healthy corrections along the way are necessary and should be welcomed.

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  10. Joe,
    My wife gives corrects me a lot and I agree they are healthy..

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  11. Today tape turned at 33.90 for RWM to upside, I went in for big scalp, rock & roll!

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  12. Rock & roll with RWM:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vLUkModihMw

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  13. Also just to mention about Gold, there has only been 1 margin increase so far which was on 8/10 (two weeks ago). More margin increases could be coming which would decrease Gold.

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  14. This market for those who can not take the volatility acts exactly like a EVIL WOMAN, heheeeee!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R20f-TPKjzc

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  15. Kli & Joe,
    You guys weren't kidding when you said the boys were not going to make this easy! I feel like I'm playing Whack a Mole!

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  16. Tom & Chuck

    Final countdown to Friday's bernanke speech, get ready for lots of fun!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jK-NcRmVcw

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  17. Ken: Question 4: Should we make an effort to fix it even if human activity was proven without doubt?

    When the earth wobbles every 26,000 or so years, things get very cold. Manhattan will be under 100 feet of ice. I wonder if people will complain about global warming then?

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  18. Tom, funny you mention Whack a Mole, that is what John Hussman called it on Mon. Honest, unfortunately did not short bac. And as you know, I live in Charlotte...the word here is that Ken Lewis was strong-armed into Countrywide and M/L "merger". Most of the management was replaced by M/L mgmt. when that happened. I saw that Bove said buy BAC, I think he's not telling the truth.

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  19. KLI: Why is gold plunging so fiercely today? Is Helicopter Ben going to shelve QE3?

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  20. All,

    Gold is behaving as I expected, remember my post couple of days ago which said, " Gold is love and love is like oxygen, too much of it gets you too high and if you do not get enough then you die". At 1900 with the speed it went up caused folks to get high on too much opium, too fast, and now the other side of the coin for a while until oxygen starts to get low and then the switch needs to turn back up.

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  21. Jay....gold is plunging because it was "brought up" in a parabolic move to "rip" it down....that's how they make money...VERY HEALTHY i might add........Joe is laughing his ass off at it. Very leveraged players (weak hands) in the trade recently and getting their asses handed to them......(all planned) .... It's beeeeeutiful...

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  22. Nancy.....thankyou for the comments on Ken Lewis. It appeared by his body language in 2008 when he came out and announced that he was coerced. He's still a schmuck for rolling over but then I guess when you have a gun to your head you lose a lot of "inner strength".....hehhehehehe

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  23. Jay,

    Gold till 1900 was a beautiful sexy and very seductive woman and folks thought they are in HEAVEN and yesterday Gold took the make up off her face and suddenly the beautiful woman turned to be a ugly demon and it scared the heck out of those who were high, at some point she will put the make up back on and seduction will resume, until then heheeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

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  24. And for the ladies Gold played the same game except it was a handsome and seductive man.

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  25. yeh....don't forget the ladies...hehehe......gold down $104.......weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

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  26. Ben must have some very bullish news for PMs coming out on friday.....hehehehe

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  27. "Parabolic down move"......hehehehe......blood in the streets......its terrible

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  28. Sis,
    Didn't see the Hussman piece, quit watching cable news it was making me nutty'er then I already am! Took Joe's advice and ridding myself of distractions....... Tell you what though it sure feel like that old carnival game! Cant seem to get my timing down, very frustrating!

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  29. a problem the gold rush down creates is now more big boys will start adding at certain point taking some of the breath out of equities...

    a pretty good reason not to buy and hold stocks here...Joe already spelled it out but the data helps also

    http://howestreet.com/2011/08/lost-decade-coming-boomer-retirement-headwinds-pe-expansion-contraction-demographic-model-negative-returns-decade-revisited/

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  30. reentered some positions now in exk ric ag pslv........should have more downside..but have to take the blood trade.....don't get toooo fine timing it Tom

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  31. rally looks like its built on sand..the dunes of financials and oil symbols...everything else still looks like it wants to go down..

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  32. What are everyone's thoughts on the overall concept of buy and hold? I do not practice it, and for me, a hold is never more than a year or so before I rebalance or sell for profits. This even includes my long-term retirement accounts. In this type of market, and going forward, it seems like a recipe to go broke.

    Anyway, also bought some more EXK and PSLV, will add GDX and SLW if they get taken down more. Waiting for $20 (Joe's target) to re-enter SGY.

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  33. Gold Tumbles 5.6%: Are Mining Stocks the Next Big Trade?


    http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/gold-tumbles-5-mining-stocks-next-big-trade-181545757.html%20?sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

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  34. David Knox Barker, who wrote “Jubilee on Wall Street: An Optimistic Look at the Global Financial Crash,” echoes Schultz. Enormous problems will usher in equally enormous changes. Barker said this week, “The final plunge of this long wave winter season is now underway. The international political economy, which has lost its moorings in individual accountability, responsibility and purpose, is breaking up. Socialism in all its forms, including the global banking system that is dependent on the government dole, is collapsing from the weight of its internal contradictions. Socialism is going through an extinction event in the final years of this long wave, receiving its just reward from the crushing long wave forces that it has magnified around the globe.”

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  35. KLI: Barker really hits the nail on the head there. Thanks for posting.

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  36. Well, Armstrong calls it Marxism. Really recommend his latest on the euro. Kli, I always wonder why otherwise good men/women succumbed to this corruption...look what they have done to so many. Hard to fathom the EE. And Tom, John Hussman runs the Hussman funds, publishes a very thorough article on his website every Monday. He is not on TV as far as I know. Held on for dear life today, didn't add although some are looking mighty tempting as there seems to be little doubt no QE3 announcement will be made on Fri.

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  37. "The CME Group (NasdaqGS:CME - News) said late Wednesday it would raise maintenance margins for trading COMEX 100-ounce gold futures by 27 percent, after the close of business on Aug 25."

    Guess someone got the press release early. Wonder if that will shake some physical into the laps of the bullion banks to help cover the Venezuela physical delivery.

    My guess is the paper movements won't translate into physical availability.

    Miners like SLW are poised short term to test the lower daily technical bands with the most the recent rise in margin requirements.

    Only leveraged hedgies and speculators will get hurt this round as central banks and sovereign funds continue to accumulate the physical.

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  38. paraphrasing JMS.....eventually margins will be raised to full cash before gold and silver eventually reach their highs.....DONE!!!

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  39. budfox,

    In regard to SGY, I said, " IF 20 holds then it has bottomed OTHERWISE 16 would be the next support".

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  40. The best performing oil stock RECENTLY has been ATPG, after getting down to 6.30, look at what it closed at today. Two main reasons, one it was brutally shorted since it was 18 and also the CEO and couple of directors bought over $1.5M worth of stock last week in open market around $10.

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  41. The economy is so bad that I got a pre-declined credit card in the mail. CEO's are now playing miniature golf. Exxon-Mobil laid off 25 Congressmen. Angelina Jolie adopted a child from America. Motel Six won't leave the light on anymore. A picture is now only worth 200 words.They renamed Wall Street " Wal-Mart Street...

    "Finally, I called the Suicide Hotline. I got a call center in Pakistan and when I told them I was suicidal, they got all excited, and asked if I could drive a truck.

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  42. Nancy,

    You mentioned:

    "Kli, I always wonder why otherwise good men/women succumbed to this corruption...look what they have done to so many."

    BECAUSE the best WEAPON evil within the heart of men has is counting on the fact that most humans will give in to their natural SELFISH animalistic nature which is look the other way or let some one else stick their neck out for what's right. Nature's law is FIXED and clear, you want JUSTICE, be prepared to give it all including material suffering and even the ultimate sacrifice to stop evil from advancing and especially in regard to the issue you are discussing it requires many walking the united path, that's what it takes. Now tell me, do you see that kind of dedication here in America? People THINK they are good, huge difference between knowing the right path and WALKING it. It always reminds me of the line in Devil's advocate with Al Pacino, playing the role of devil, " I like humans and the concept of free will and CHOICE, with their tongues they curse me, how ever in action which seperates good one from those who are my slave, most will do what I want them to do, so who is winning? hahaaaa".

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  43. Nancy,

    Simplified answer to your question is, walking the right path is HARD and it requires real sacrifices. Humans as usual are very good at lying to themselves. Gift of CHOICE is a BEECH, it's not easy for one to go against their selfish animalistic nature eventhough thru concept of choice they have that capability and mainly because most humans want to have the cake and eat it, they are not willing to accept consequences attached to that kind of choice!

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  44. There are examples throughout history of man's ultimate sacrifice for the greater good. Making the ultimate sacrifice and KNOWING you are going to make the ultimate sacrifice remove most of the "aware" crowd from taking the final steps.

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  45. kli,

    Correct, eventhough most humans later on realize that ALL DEATH is CERTAIN ANYWAY. It's not death which determines who is the winner and who is the loser since at some point all die, it comes down to the path one took during the time they lived.

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  46. Nancy,

    Here is the answer, watch and listen to the speech:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dH4p9BQ3V9o

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  47. I have to say that Steve Jobs was a great CEO, visionary and inventor..Too bad more CEO's were not like him..

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  48. Thanks for posting the speech Joe...there is so little courage and integrity these days as we have discussed many times before. That's exactly why we are where we are, unfortunately everyone suffers. Best and thanks for this blog.

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