Thursday, August 18, 2011

EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!


Just get me offfffff! This isn't fun anymore. So much for investor CONfidence and tamping down the fear factor. How's that jobless recovery workin' for you? Overnite rumors filtered into the overseas markets that a big investor was caught in the DAX and was liquidating a very large position. Paulson must really get around (snicker). This is getting REAL SCARY again as CONfidence is getting sucked out of the "risk" trade right in front of your eyes. Market participants are in full panic mode as they look for "safe havens" and guess what THAT is. Its amazing as I look at gold this morning ripping through 1800 in the midst of another equity "run". We've talked about gold's currency play and safe haven play and its now put up or shut up time for the gold haters. Its just beginning so don't expect the parabolic rise yet. It's coming but I have faith in the central banks to throw more of the good ol USD on this fire. Have faith sheeple.

Watch our miners for their price action today. It will be telling. A slaughter will tell you that more pullback is to come. A measured pullback to $HUI supports is a victory. Green day in some or many miners is EXTEMELY positive for their near term performance. Early selling may be expected but watch their performance during the course of the day. EXK SSRI SLW EGO GFI ANV GG AG GPL HL RIC.......etc of course PHYS and PSLV are our bullion plays. Let's gooooooooo.







57 comments:

  1. The Keystone Speculator (KS) wrote about about Gold today.
    KS believes gold is overbought and the chart is forming an "M top". KS predicts the high will be achieved this month in the 1800-1830 area. KS points out that the charts show negative divergence and that further increases in margin requirements are likely. This will aid in the fall of gold's price. KS predicts gold will fall to the 1300-1450 area.

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  2. is the setup for obama's big speech in sept..

    take it down so he can save the world..I was tinkering with cboe and spx and 1060's might be here by end of day monday

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  3. Physical Gold needs to correct about 30% like 2008 and that would be to around 1300, that would intensify miner selling and flushing which would then create real buying opportunity. Look at Gold and silver now, both up and market bleeding and miners not doing well which goes back to what I said last night. DTO doing well today and expected since oil will fluctuate between 69 and 90. Yesterday Oil got close to 89 which meant it was time to short it. Look at GG and SLW, heheeeee, what we talked about.

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  4. Joe,

    good information...options pain for spy is 127

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  5. In the current market, the opportunities to make good money later on is not in miners UNLESS physical starts correcting. The opportunity remains in oil stocks since oil is correcting with overall market which creates flushing in oil stocks. Miners are just floating now and not correcting severly because Gold/silver are not correcting, therfore real intense gains in miners can not be achieved.

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  6. The real opportunity to make money remains in ATPG ,SGY, LNG, and LDK once the S&P correction and oil correction is done. Focus on the sector that takes real beating, that sector would be the one benefiting once market turns up and I am not talking one day today.

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  7. PAL should be on the list as well!

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  8. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/l-l-energy-enters-strategic-partnership-with-tianjin-fuhao-2011-08-18

    can't figure out if LLEN is real or not...

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  9. chuck,

    Just focus on S&P and oil, forget about other sectors. The intense flushing of oil stocks will give you good entry opportunity for ATPG, SGY, LNG, and LDK. Between now and end of the yr, that's the sector to focus on. As long as Gold/silver do not correct then real money and gains won't be in miners.

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  10. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/regulator-tells-sweden-banks-to-prepare-for-crisis-2011-08-18?link=MW_home_latest_news

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  11. If S&P by October gets down to 1011 and oil to 70, that would make ATPG, SGY, LNG, and LDK excellent buy. I will watch and react as I see the tape on those stocks which moves with S&P and oil.

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  12. Jobless claims rise 9,000 last week
    Wall Street Slammed Amid Global Growth Concerns
    Gold prices continue climb past $1,800 an ounce
    Home sales dropped 3.5 pct. in July, hit 2011 low

    President Obama is on vacation. Congress is in Recess.

    Why aren't our leaders treating this like a crisis? They seem more concerned about their golf score.

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  13. Joe,
    What is your best guess for the low point for S&P? Are you of the same opinion as Kli's charts suggest @ 1050. As for Oil what would You suggest as the bottom area to look for to accumulate above mentioned energy plays. Mostly cash and looking for the next play but don't want to get lost in forest wandering through the trees again.

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  14. Jay,

    Stay focused and do not get distracted by what politicians do or do not, economy is toast, focus on making money and surviving. Politicians have never had your interest at heart, they only react when it's late and they make things worse any way. They did not teach you what POLITICs means in school. Politics is the art of making one's wicked desires seem like national interest. You are on your own, prepare yourself accordingly without expectation of help from any so-called leader. There are only two leaders, bankers and corporations and those two entities care less about what's good for you.

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  15. Tom,

    Answered your question before you asked it, look above and see what I said, I like to see which is oil at 70 and S&P around 1011 which was the low of end of QE1 last yr July 1st. But first See if 1100 on S&P holds, then 1075, 1050, 1025, and 1011.

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  16. The trick is understanding that they won't take the S&P straight down to 1011, in between you will see updays. Big BOYZ do not make it easy.

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  17. Jay,

    With the exception of Ron Paul, the rest of politicians and I mean ALL of them are bought and paid for, so do not waste your time on that issue any more.

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  18. Sigh.....just got word that someone I know in Europe suicided after severe financial problems.

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  19. http://abcnews.go.com/Business/standard-poors-justice-department-reportedly-investigates-credit-rating/story?id=14332010

    "Has Standard & Poor's downgrade of U.S. debt from AAA to AA+ made the ratings agency a lightning rod for critics and regulators?

    The Justice Department is reportedly investigating whether S&P improperly rated dozens of mortgage securities before the financial crisis, and the city of Los Angeles has withdrawn its S&P contract to rate its $7 billion investment portfolio.

    "Quite frankly, we just don't want to be associated with [Standard & Poor's] anymore based on that decision. We think it was irresponsible and just excessive," Thomas Juarez, the city's chief investment officer and assistant treasurer, told The Bond Buyer. The city council's budget and finance committee was told of the cancelled contract on Monday.

    The Justice Department reportedly began investigating whether S&P improperly rated dozens of mortgage securities before the ratings agency issued its downgrade of U.S. debt on Aug. 5, according to the New York Times."

    . . .

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  20. I'm sorry to hear that Ken...I'm also sorry to say it is probably just the beginning.

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  21. All,

    To make it real focused for you guys, concentrate on SGY, what a company and what a management, it moves with S&P and oil, profitable company and if it goes below $20 then it becomes very tempting. Once the market turns, the first stock I will buy would be SGY.

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  22. Holy Smoles you sure did, that was pretty cool!! Working today so I'm on the Droid takes a while to get from brain to screen. However since your reading my mind today I have a couple of questions regarding the Mrs! Hehehehehe.

    Grateful as always,

    Tom

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  23. I have a friend that lost $100 grand on the banks in the last few weeks. He just swore off the market for good.

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  24. Homer,

    Pay attention to price of SGY, come on boyz, take that puppy below 20!

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  25. Red,

    Mr.market is going to give us a nice opportunity in SGY, key is patience for entry position, do some technical analysis for me and keep it real.

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  26. By the way Red, I am not interested in intra-day trading on SGY, tell me where do you see a nice buy and hold for a while or swing trade.

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  27. Problem is this is going to be a hard break point. Monthly lower BB on S&P is around 990.

    As for SGY support is around 20, 16 or 10 on the weekly.

    Too much noise on the intermediate term to guess when this decline stops, and not talking about a few short squeeze days of 5-10% spread in between either. Markets very unstable as they force money out of equities in sovereign debt to shore up the Ponzi.

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  28. Red,

    If 20 does not hold for SGY, I was thinking 16. If they take it down to 10, I will buy with both hands. Today I am all over DTO, heheeee!

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  29. Interesting move by Communist Chavez today...


    Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez announced plans to nationalize the country's gold mining industry and withdraw $11B in gold reserves from U.S. and European banks.

    http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/news/2011/08/18/president-hugo-chavez-recalling-11b-in-gold-reserves-held-in-us-and-eu-banks/#ixzz1VPIvIUKo

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  30. Not on the day time zone now so my contributions are a little delayed....nice dump isn't it.....cannot disagree with Joe's take......so be on your toes and hope they take the miners down for some cheap buys....but remember this is a trade too...I'm noticing a lot of warnings on gold......should still have some run before the next correction.

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  31. Hey KLI, Did you just see that epic short squeeze?

    -505 to -420 in about 4.5 minutes

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  32. wouldn't it be interesting if Ben announced QE3 next week a Jackson hole?

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  33. Miners took a beating, I'm so stubborn, holding my core. But also have nice positions in cef, pslv and phys. Looking at sgy, atpg, lng, ldk have made $ on them in the past. Thanks again kli, joe and all. Interesting that FAZ is cheaper than skf! (not playing either).

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  34. Ken,

    they are setting it up and its going to be more then BEN...

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  35. Forgot to ask, re: energy plays, have a little apl, it's had a huge runup, what would be a good entry, down 6% today. Also like etp.

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  36. another bloody down day tomorrow would be just perfect.......that means it wont happen

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  37. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  38. Now Kli, if everyone thought like you in that post, then it would go down more tomorrow.

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  39. http://www.kitco.com/ind/Thomson/aug182011.html

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  40. rude,

    maybe buy it right now and make change on the pop tomm?

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  41. Wells issues a gold bubble alert. This tells me we are not in a bubble: http://moneywatch.bnet.com/investing/blog/investment-insights/gold-bubble-alert-wells-fargo-warns-clients/2313/ Oh, and it is opex wk. So no down day tomorrow.

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  42. I "think" they won't correct gold in a big way until we get a real ramp job....2000+

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  43. "maybe buy it right now and make change on the pop tomm? "

    i thought about that also with LDK, but the guidance of there pre-announcement of earnings was awful. just last week it got under $4.70. the risk /reward for me isnt worth it to take a shot tonight. not sure if it gets a decent deadcat bounce. with the news tonight, i wouldnt be suprised if it tests that $4.70 early tomarrow. i will wait and watch to see were this thing bottems. i have had some success trading LDK, but tonight makes me wonder if it starts another big leg down that leads to under $4.00

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  44. I'm staying away from LDK right now. Instead I'm hoping for a lower overall open and pick up a little SOL and or HSOL for a trade only. Another play I am watching is IO. Have done well with it in the past. Good luck everyone.

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  45. All,

    Put AONE in your radar as well, they signed a contract with GM last week!

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  46. some good major holders on AONE

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  47. Kli, I'm going back to your post above, and you say watch the miners. Well, most of the ones I hold in my core (SLW, EXK, SSRI, ABX, AG) held up very well today relative to the market. Mostly flat to down maybe 1% or so.

    Since gold is in a world of its own, I have to think this is a positive move for the miners near-term. They did not get crushed like tech and energy with the rest of the market, so still holding the core.

    As for energy, HNR has been a dog, but still holding it with a basis in the $11s. Watching Joe's target of $20 to re-enter SGY, but if they don't take it there, I might establish a core around $21-22.

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  48. http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/fed-bombed-market-i-ask-why

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  49. Bud, my issue with the miners right now is their strength is that they are not going down as fast as everything else. This isn't good enough for me. I think at some point gold will correct and miners will move down more. I need stocks that actually go up to make money on a long position.

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  50. KLI: You need to tell us how to survive long term. Should I put my entire IRA/401K into gold? I'm seriously considering it.

    Am I too late?

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  51. Jay... here is a scene from Band of Brothers...maybe this will help you get through this.....

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tKYJLfWqTBY

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  52. Kli,

    my first comment on this thread was kind of what Bruce K was saying..ben b, obama and euro union are going to hit us with huge stick save week after next...or there abouts..

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