Tuesday, August 16, 2011

WHO HITS THE FULL CHAMBER?


Let me see if I can distill recent events. Has the economy suddenly began improving. Well if memory serves me right the first two quarters GDP numbers were 0.4 and 1.3....OK? Next has housing spurted forthe with amazing improvements in prices?....No...In fact they are terrible and we have gone through the best part of this year and now we're heading into the seasonal dead zone for six months. Funny...I thought the previous six months were the dead zone. I guess the "price discovery" game being played in real estate just isn't baiting in enough suckers to jump start that bloated pig called "housing". It's funny how creating a bubble tends to remove investors from that sector for years...and years.....and years.

NEXT....have we removed all of the toxic debt/derivatives off the big bank's (and little bank's) balance sheet? NO......not only have we not removed them but we won't know if ANY is gone (and its not) because the promised TRANSPARENCY was never delivered to the public. Instead...we got MARK TO IMAGINATION of the toxic balance sheets of the banks. Anyone with half a brain knows they are bankrupt and holding hundreds of billions of worthless paper... and the only people playing are because they HAVE NO OTHER CHOICE. Every market participant knows its another game of liquidity musical chairs, complement of the Central Banks....namely OUR Central Bank. Printing and flooding OUR dollars into every rat hole around the world to try and stem the contagion.

Of course the liquidity has been running up the commodities as any form of real value is searched for by desperate Russian Roulette gamers. We all know we are running out of empty chambers in this game. Nerves are shot in this game now but its not time to pull the plug on the suckers just yet. Volatility is not over yet so be prepared. Its obvious that most of you are on the sidelines here. I hope you are prepared for the next move down. Hopefully you have a core of miners and PSLV adn PHYS that gives you some comfort. The big candle moves on the $HUI with last weeks down days and volatility are not to be discounted. I'll be looking for weakness to add and overbought conditions to take some profit.

Have the fundamentals changed? Have we fixed our fiscal and structural deficits? Then what is the plan? That's right. MONETIZATION and smoke and mirrors. Taking the "cure" is not an option. So....more fireworks ahead boyz n girlz....ITS SHOWTIME....

http://www.marketoverflow.com/market-forecast/eurusd---medium-long-term-forecast

Nice chart off turd's site from latcho...Silver chart



RIC how's this beauty?












35 comments:

  1. Couldn't help but think of red with this excerpt from Inlet's post yesterday...

    "The new system promised you hamburger, and then dog food, perhaps, after that."

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  2. Brilliant! Should we be looking at jag again? It had a huge correction, now moving up. Tia and best of luck...

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  3. Resistance for RIC is at 10, if it breaks it then it can really go up further, any weakness in RIC is a buy, their earnings was excellent, what I like about RIC is low float/outstanding shares, and excellent management which is why I brought it up in the first place, for those of you interested in gold miners which is majority of you RIC is the stock to focus on.

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  4. Joe, RIC seems to follow the 100 sma on daily but could it be near a double top?

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  5. Chuck,

    There is strong support around $7 for RIC and strong resistance around 10 now, watch and see if it breaks 10, if it does not then around 8/8.50 could be good entry for accumulation. Due to low float/outstanding shares this one can go all over the place , how ever fundamentals are strong with this one and any weakness would be accumulated.

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  6. RIC is one of those stocks that even a trader like me does not try to time the ups and downs due to low float/outstanding shares/ not high volume and it's a growth stock. When I play it, it's more of swing trade than intra-day trade.

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  7. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Richmont-Mines-Announces-iw-756208307.html?x=0&.v=1

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  8. for the buy and holds....RIC is still VERY cheap here for the long haul......

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  9. kliguy
    thanks for the heads up on RIC; looks good if/when it takes off; got a little just in case.
    Thanks for posting @ TF's place; sometimes I'm late getting here; my bad

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  10. DGP which moves with price of physical has been a very good buy and hold as well, it's an ETN, not ETF!

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  11. took a shot at GPL at $2.85. wanted to start a core position. hopefully my patience will pay off

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  12. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tax-the-super-rich-or-revolution-will-rage-in-2012-2011-08-16?link=home_carousel

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  13. Joe,
    Has your thoughts changed any on dcth?

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  14. Hey Kli,

    What kind of crap is this?

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-it-time-to-give-up-on-stocks-in-your-401k-2011-08-16

    Anyone who takes this advice will probably be broke in five years. JMHO

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  15. it will wilks.....hehehe.....but only AFTER the K wave is over.........then buy and HOLD with both hands

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  16. the colored charts btw are mine....they are original artwork......so I accept all mistakes and questions...

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  17. Tom,

    DCTH was a good technical play between 3.15 and 4.20. I am not playing it now, technically 3.80 needs to hold, if it does not then it will test 3.50. DCTH is a trade and not an investment.

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  18. lol wilks - just another talking head using stats to make an invalid point with the old "just ride it out" philosophy. Love the one line...

    "This doesn’t mean you must throw 70% of your retirement-plan assets into stocks. Your precise allocation will depend on how many years out you are from retirement, your ability to ignore the daily headlines and focus on the long term, and other factors. What’s most important is diversifying across a broad array of asset classes, rebalancing regularly and controlling your expenses. "

    I'm sorry?????

    So if you get killed, they'll just say you had the wrong allocation and weren't diversified and you weren't rebalancing you big dummy. Many of the comments point out the errors. lol

    On a lighter note...Allstate suing GS.

    http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/insurance/2011-08-16-allstate-sues-goldman-sachs_n.htm

    Can anyone say "settled without admitting fault"?

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  19. Nancy,

    JAG could be a technical play and trade, RIC is more of an investment due to their resources, no debt, cash flow, low outstanding shares,,etc. RIC is a better company than JAG. Not all Gold miners are the same.

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  20. By the way when I first brought up RIC, it was trading at 6.80. This stock should be trading around $15 to $18 a share due to valuations and the P/E assigned to them is cheap, it has been manipulated more than some of the known gold miners. Currently support as I mentioned is around $7. Their CEO reminds me of GORO's CEO, it's a shame that it has not got the attention he deserves.

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  21. Joe,

    He's probably to clean to get attention if he's a good CEO...

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  22. All,

    Look at EXK for example, not a bad silver company at all, look at their EPS and then their P/E. Most profitable Gold/silver miners have P/E of 30 assigned to them and then look at RIC, they are on track for over 0.60 EPS and the P/E based on today's closing price is around 16, on top of that, no debt and low outstanding shares which is why I mentioned the fair price for RIC should be $18 a share.

    -- Q2 2011 net earnings of $5.0 million, or $0.16 per share, versus Q2 2010
    net earnings of $0.3 million, or $0.01 per share;


    -- Q2 2011 operating cash flow of $7.8 million, or $0.25 per share, versus
    Q2 2010 operating cash flow of $1.6 million, or $0.06 per share;


    -- Gold sales of 20,085 ounces at an average selling price of US$1,495
    (CAN$1,460) in Q2 2011, versus gold sales of 15,607 ounces at an average
    selling price of US$1,222 (CAN$1,259) in the prior year;


    -- 35,000 metre drill program on Wasamac in 2011continues to yield positive
    results; 22,000 metres of drilling completed as of the end of June; five
    drills active;


    -- Surface drilling program completed on Monique; favourable results
    reaffirm Richmont's objective to evaluate potential for a small open-pit
    operation; more exploration drilling planned this fall;


    -- Strong financial position: $48.3 million in cash and cash equivalents
    and no long-term debt at June 30, 2011.

    Commenting on the second quarter, Mr. Martin Rivard, President and CEO of Richmont Mines noted: "We are pleased with the performance of our operations this quarter and year-to-date, and are reaffirming our production guidance of 80,000 to 85,000 ounces of gold for 2011.

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  23. When I mentioned EXK above, it was to compare the EPS and P/E to RIC, focus is RIC and earnings I posted is for RIC.

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  24. Joe
    Played dcth it just as you suggested, let go of it Friday for a nice profit..... Thank You! Ill keep my eye on 3.50

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  25. Thanks for spelling it out...can't seem to get a bid so will just avg. in. Gold/silver strong today but who knows what tomorrow brings from euroland. Yes, just buy and hold those stocks, don't worry, be happy! I know exactly one intenational businessman (Turkish, young). He got out of U.S. equities two wks. ago.

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  26. October lows predicted: http://www.safehaven.com/article/22193/coming-in-october-next-major-cycle-low

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  27. from rts......

    http://www.businessinsider.com/the-beginning-of-the-endgame-2011-8

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  28. What do you make of "eurozone government" proposed by Merkel and Sarkozy? Sounds frightening to me.

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  29. Sister, in my opinion it will end either there or with a breakup of the EU. Eventually options that are politically viable will become mutually exclusive between the separate nations. They will need either consolidated under one government or broken down and allowed to default or not independently.

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  30. One government for monetary/backstoppy purposes anyway,

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  31. And for the purposes of how much any given person's vote actually counts in regard to the government of the region that person and their family physically lives in.

    Eventually loosely-unified power finds an excuse to centralize, and hey maybe sometimes the excuse is valid but power always finds one.

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