Thursday, August 25, 2011

THE WIZARD SPEAKS


Traders are transfixed as they await directions to the yellow brick road. As we get ready to trade on the news of the next monetization pronouncement the empire is engaged in at least seven conflicts with boots on the ground around the world. We of course try to down play five of these but never the less we are in places like Libya, Sudan, Syria, Yemen, Pakistan, and MORE (see map of most of the world). Now back to your regularly scheduled program. Ben gives the market a pep talk today. He plans on droning on about how monetary policy is prepared to provide support to the markets and liquidity if needed and that the chances of recession have increased but still remain relatively low. Even though he will do whatever it takes to keep capital flowing that he has limits in terms of creating jobs. (This will be the part where you want to listen closely. voice clears again... ben speaking...Without the involvement of coordinated strong fiscal policy the structural impediments to job creation will remain in effect for the foreseeable future. (rubs nose and drinks his water) he proceeds...Not only is it difficult to see these problems changing in the near term but visibility for their improvement remains opaque. The Fed will maintain agreements with Central Banks for currency stabilization while the monetary stress remains high. he then continues with some blah blah and some more blah blah.

In other words ....the wizard is ready and willing to fire his bazookas. The problem is we are already in QE3 and 4 and 5. We have opened up swaps with open market agreements with Eurozone banks pumping in hundreds of millions of greenbacks. OR...how about the "guaranteed zero interest rates for two years".....These measures are exporting inflation and the developing countries will come under increasing stress and destabilization. Ben knows it and he knows he's between a rock and a hard place. He also has NO clue or ability to create jobs. Giving the banks trillions will not create jobs. It will only fill black holes. You will continue to hear the words CONfidence and FEAR dozens of time every hour on CNBS. They cannot exist together. They are mutually exclusive. Without CONfidence there is NO velocity of money. With FEAR...there can be no CONficence restored. 80% of the US population is one social security check or one pay check away from BROKE!! Do you really think with that level of debt and lack of savings the consumer is suddenly going to start growing the economy and spending?? GOOD LUCK with that one.

Monetization will continue. It has to. Without it the whole enchilada collapses. You bring in a Volker now and its instant depression. Why do you think they shipped him back to Manhattan in 2009 after 40 seconds of listening to his recommendations.

Nothing will change to improve this. At least until we get "bad enough" and are forced to. We are paralyzed by a corrupt system controlled only by greed, money and the human spirit...GREEEEED! What can I do to help my country is NOT foremost on people's minds. Its how do I save my ass. gl... We are traders here and we make money but that doesn't mean we have to turn off our minds.


















52 comments:

  1. Doesn't matter what Wizard Bernanke says, more curious what happens when Irene literally pours water on Wall Street this weekend. We will see if the Wall Street shrivels like the Wicked Witch of the West, or gets buried under the weight of debt like the Wicked Witch of the East.

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  2. The Keystone Speculator discussed the Euro Chart. Once again, seems like nearly everything I read has the dollar strengthening and the Euro falling.
    The ball is in Ben's court and much depends on what he says. If he speaks out against more QE, the dollar should strengthen.

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  3. So as soon as MSM can deleverage itself from Jackson hole the better. Sitting here in the Irish Debt Gulag I can tell you the real reasons for holding metal is taking a massive turn. You've seen the Greek 2year interest rates? That deal is dead and the EU is on holidays. Buy metal. We 've had the most austere 3 years ever in this country and yesterday the IMF toika junta said we have to find another 10 billion in cuts. there is nothing left to cut apart from front line services.

    I received a record 3 calls from friends this week who had not metal protection pondering if the 120 euro decline over two days was a good opportunity to buy. More disappointingly i got 2 calls from people i had convinced to go into gold about 3 years ago frantic to sell?!?!? They decided to hold when i said i could line up buyers that would beat any sell quote they would get from a dealer right now.

    one more thing on the EU front. Merkyl is screwed. she has run her party based on sentiment reports before and after her decisions. she has presented us with this notion that the germans (and many other EU states, Finland) dont want to bail out lazy EU countries . this is not true . my friends in Berlin tell me that the germans completely understand they are not bailing any of these countries but their banks. The reason why the DAX really fell off yesterday was that Merkyls mentor / hero publicly castigated her for her policy yesterday. the person she models herself off told her she had it all wrong! elections in september should be fun!

    uptrending regards from the Dublin Gulag

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  4. BEn does NOT give out candy as anticipated.......market sells

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  5. Bouncy, bouncy. Bought some euo...

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  6. Nancy,

    The bull market has been in ATPG, ATPG, ATPG, ATPG and more ATPG since it hit 6.30, today tape turned at 12. ATPPPPPPPPPGGGGGGGGGG!

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  7. The CEO of ATPG sent a strong message to those who were shorting at 6.50 & 7. He did it by holding the news on wells production until short interest got way out of hand and then he sent the message clearly by news and open market purchase himself and message was clear, " WHO IS YOUR DADDY", since then well, heheeeeeeeeee!

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  8. Outside of GS, lot of hedge funds and retail shorts got trapped when ATPG droped to 6.30 by giving them the impression that ATPG will shortly drop to $3 afterwards and then brutal short squeeze lasting days and days. The longs since $18 got margin calls and had to sell at bottom as well. First they destroyed longs and then masterpiece work by CEO to trap shorts at the low.

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  9. I recall kli mentioning to me $3 coming on ATPG and that would be good buy, and my response was maybe, how ever the drop from $18 has been so severe that it smells like trap might be set at $6s, and the rest is heheeeeeeeeeee! Getting too greedy when prices are high and getting too cautious when it gets low is when powerful boyz do their real work.

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  10. Joe,

    SGY moving nicely today. Also bought some SOL this am.

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  11. KLI: I've noticed that your Friday postings are usually the best. :) This paragraph had me grinning and chuckling when I read it...

    Monetization will continue. It has to. Without it the whole enchilada collapses. You bring in a Volker now and its instant depression. Why do you think they shipped him back to Manhattan in 2009 after 40 seconds of listening to his recommendations.


    I think you missed your calling. You should have been a financial writer for the Wall Street Journal or Barrons. These blog posts do a fine job of comparing the daily fireworks to the big picture. And it's done so with such blunt humor. I can't remember the last time I've laughed out loud while reading the WSJ or NYT. Keep up the great work.

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  12. ATPG....SHIIIIIIT......good grab nancy....and thnx jay......

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  13. One of the most undervalued silver stocks around due to manipulation and heavy shorting by hedge funds is SVM. SVM has not got the publicity that other silver stocks have which has given the green light to hedge fund thieves to short. Check it out!

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  14. Red,

    You should even be tempted by SVM, check it out!

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  15. 52 week low for SVM is 7.11 which was set last yr when price of physical was much lower than where it is now, company is profitable and trying to battle shorts thru shares buy back, look at news on it today and also check out their earnings and the P/E assigned to it in compare to peers, 52 week high is 16, today it hit 7.70 before some short covering.

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  16. IPSU popping. Short squeeze? Looks to me like selling was overdone.

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  17. Another interesting point about SVM is that the 52 week low of 7.11 was set this time last yr, Monday the 52 week low goes up to 7.25 and in two weeks the 52 week low becomes 7.70 which was also touched today, this stock is getting very interesting!

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  18. I hope they keep droping SVM, I like cheap and this one might be the silver stock that gets the mother load when it becomes beyond reason cheap, heheeeeeee!

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  19. Come on boyz drop SVM to $6, uncle Joe wants some cheap shares. SVM also pays dividend, it's not much dividend but it's another example of good company which just bought two more chinese mining area. This baby is going to be a good one once real short covering starts, yummmmmmmy.

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  20. Joe,

    I'm avg'g in to svm....heck it pays a divi...

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  21. accumulating SVM...will add heavy if they get it in the 6s

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  22. joe, new here, but been watching your work. svm looks very interesting. i like the fact that they pay a div and zoink! are actually profitable. i know it is irrelevant for trading but it helps me sleep. so are you waiting for 6 or nibbling? thank you, g

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  23. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Silvercorp-Metals-Inc-Update-iw-2718785489.html?x=0

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  24. Better be batting down the hatches and securing the ship, wall street.......Nature is coming for you and she looks mad....good luck to you bankers and hope you guys are prepared for that monster.....my crew is out of Manhattan this week and far away from from downtown so I have NO worries gl.....

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  25. Joe wants to catch a real flushing of the market in the next month or two for a steal.....so he can "buy and hold" for a couple of months....hehhehehe......at least thats the plan I have....

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  26. galt,

    When the daily tape turns heavy on SVM, I will see it and enter heavy. I like to see $6, that's not the same thing as waiting for $6. I trade what market gives me, having said that SVM won't be a quick trade for me since it has started to become value play with great growth potential. You just can not find many silver & gold stocks these days as undervalued and manipulated as this one.

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  27. gold is at 1825....perfect HnS.....hehehehe they may beat it down again

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  28. I generally do not post on any other message board except here, but I decided to post on SVM yahoo message board, seems like shorts are getting nervous and are trying their best to make sure retail traders are out so they can cover in lower prices.

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  29. gold took off like a rocket end of day...

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  30. Kli,

    I feel opposite on gold going into next week..it might not get beat down...but I know little compared to u...good trading..

    I like SVM here on 52 wk trendline...this level is going to be a battle for shorts to squeeze out last cple dollars to 6

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  31. good way to track Irene...

    Use this link so you can utilize high density winds and fronts...

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-avn.html

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  32. chuck,

    The 52 week low is rising starting next week unless shorts become successful taking it lower, either way it gets harder for them since most retail traders/investors are already out after the beat down from 16 to 7.70. The stock's current price is like physical silver at $18, and we all know physical silver is over $40 now, heheeeeee!

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  33. chuck ...don't overestimate me on "trading" this short term....I can be 180 wrong.....I have a good trading core here AND a good cash reserve...I prepare for any twist or turn they throw

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  34. No debt and over $200M in cash:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=SVM

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  35. btw chuck....joe is smelling a killing setting up.....they've spent over 6 months now knocking the chit out of the miners trade.....while gold and silver shoot up....its obvious that even IF they beat gold and silver down hard....that the next move on miners will be big. Just a question of how much cheaper they MIGHT get.

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  36. joe, do you think their manipulation has to do with their chinese acquisition? visa via lack of transparency or some other issue. i like silver. have for a long time and this looks quite nice. to be blunt: pm are in bull mode where have the shorts come from. thank you, g

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  37. galt,

    Part of it is because the company eventhough headquartered in canada happens to be a chinese company with chinese CEO and that gives hedge funds excuse to short knowing the CEO does not have enough firepower to combat them in short term and also another reason is that hedge funds are still mainly long Gold and silver ETF and short miners especially with SVM.

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  38. galt,

    This is how the hedge funds are playing SVM:

    http://www.wakingthebull.com/entry.php?866-Great-Article-Hedge-Fund-Ratio-Spreads-Continue-to-Distort-the-Value-of......

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  39. theme music for this weekend...stay safe and best wishes..

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LOkAPS2jjyI&feature=related

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  40. http://www.safehaven.com/article/21817/the-debt-crisis-and-the-war-cycle

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  41. Anybody got any batteries? Hehehehe...... This is nuts, folks are buying up everything! Haven't seen lines at gas stations like this since the seventies.

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  42. Joe, are you seeing this volume on ABAT? Good earnings, some good random internet media attention, and there's tumbleweed blowing in this stock.

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  43. Not stressing this position as a casino bet but I'm not understanding what I'm seeing :P

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  44. Joe and all, saw where svm went from 3 Mil. shorts to 9 Mil. I've been holding since $4 two yrs. ago, lol. May add soon for another double at least.

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  45. And agree with Jay, your commentary has gotten better and better...also re:svm, they bought back 1.6 mil. shares @8.18 avg. Love Ceos like that, fight back man. Also really like exk (endeavor) esp. on pullbacks, it went up quite a bit this wk. Looking at atpg, too. A little late, but what the heck?

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  46. Silvercorp ( SVM) today is China's largest primary silver producer and has achieved an enviable five-year track record of being the lowest cost producer of silver among its industry peers. In the First Quarter of FY2012 (ended June 30, 2011), the company produced 1.6 million ounces of silver at a cash cost of NEGATIVE $6.12 per ounce, wowww, that's cost of production. At the same time, the company is growing its resource base through continuous exploration of existing projects as well as seeking to acquire new development projects in multiple jurisdictions. It is one of only a handful of precious metals producers to pay shareholders a dividend (C$0.02 per share per quarter, 0.08 for the yr).

    Now with US$230.5-million in cash, no long-term debt, strong operations and the lowest production costs among its global industry peers, Silvercorp sees today’s unprecedented market volatility as one ripe with opportunities to grow its business in the long term. For the yr 0.56 EPS is estimated. This stock should be trading at least $13 now.

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  47. All,

    With SVM we are not talking about small company or scam like reverse mergers with accounting issues, this company is china's largest silver producer and it's trading at 50% of April's high of $16 and physical silver itself is over $40 an ounce. Once short squeeze starts in this one, it will be fierce. They own lots of mines in China and Canada.

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  48. And by the way no insider selling in SVM either, CEO is doing what he said he is going to do, this is the latest:

    http://www.canadianinsider.com/coReport/allTransactions.php?ticker=svm

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  49. What hedge fund shorts are doing is shorting different miners, cover and put the short on the other miners, they started covering shorts on HL and EXK and moved shorts to SVM, in couple of weeks or sooner, they will move shorts to the other miners and start covering on SVM. On Friday they were almost 10,000 puts options on SVM. You all know there is no check and balance in wall st any way. Take advantage of shorting by hedge funds and accumulate cheap prices especially on SVM.

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  50. Gold miners ETF testing resistance for breakout: http://blogs.stockcharts.com/dont_ignore_this_chart/2011/08/gold-miners-etf-challenges-major-resistance-level-gdx.html

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  51. http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/charlie-reese-545-vs-300000000-people

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