Tuesday, September 6, 2011

ENJOY THE WATER


This may be a time to ACT LIKE A PIG. No I don't mean to get greedy...well not TOO greedy...maybe a little greedy. Hiding in the water may work but the boyz are back and these guys know what to do with a wanker like you. They'll put sauce on you and barbeque you. We are entering a traditionally strong seasonal period for PMs and the miners. I am suggesting that we could be headed into a storm for the miners. This trade has been struggeling for the last six months and has made little headway as the hedges have beaten it into submission. They accomplish several purposes by doing this. They keep the leveraged beta players crushed in this trade while they accumulate their shares. This allows them to build positions of strength while they kick out the weak hands onto the curb choking and puking on their worthless expired options. Overtime a flat or down trade creates a lot of disenchantment for traders and the miners have been NO exception. They've made an excellent trade for some of us this year but have wrought misery for others that missed the swings. If you exert enough pain most traders eventually give up and this is exactly what this sector has produced this year.

I cannot tell you short term that the miners are the place to be but I think you have to look at them closely right now. They have broken significant resistance and held on the $HUI. Being out of this trade now is potentially a costly miss. I suggest that you buy a basket of miners here and hold on to your core for then next few months. Add on weakness and HOLD ON. I trade these aggressively but I am going to be careful to try NOT to trade out of my core unless oversold becomes extreme. gl all this game is getting into the "we play for keeps" innings and a lot of very strange volatility is going to come into play.











42 comments:

  1. Kli, thanks for all the work you do..

    This fall will be interesting...

    Obama's doing as Bernanke asked and supplying the QE via govt programs.....hopefully pointed more at people and companies than banks..This should help commodities in general..The size could be near a trillion or more...to get return it would need to be big...I've been buying metals...Joe's cheap oil target could push extra qe across the world...

    global risks though weigh caution as the world has black flags in many lands..

    tomorrow big news..

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  2. I was wrong..

    Obama to propose $300 billion jobs package: report

    this is not enough after its filtered down to the people...

    not good

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  3. kli,

    U trade VGZ at all..market cap is small, huge volume candle in june was indicator...nice chart..could go to 6 if it gets above old high..

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=VGZ+Interactive#symbol=vgz;range=5y;compare=;indicator=sma(50,100,180)+mfi+macd+volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;

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  4. Well what I meant by "you'll know inflation is coming when.." is that you'll know home prices are near the bottom when banks are foreclosing left and right, not at this pace which would take 60 years to resolve all those in default. The banks are now saying clearly they don't WANT the majority of homes, they are picking and choosing only the properties that might be worth more than face value of the debt.

    Balance sheet fraud is legal now so until they think the property is worth more than the loan, they're happy to "mark to model" and leave the squatters to remain.

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  5. Just to remind everyone, there were gold CME margin increases on 8/10 & 8/24 (2 week interval). Today is now 2 weeks from 8/24. Perhaps Labor Day might influence the pattern, but be on the watch for another possible increase.

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  6. Kli
    Pardon my ignorance but how will these currency wars being waged effect the price of gold / silver?

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  7. currency wars are noise Tom for the price of gold and silver ...the SNB move is only a blip for the global race for the bottom to reflate flagging economies and maintaining the carry trade. They are a symptom not a cure.

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  8. fCEL got a nice bump, it hopped over the 50day, looking real good.

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  9. AIXG is a good buy and hold here...if you want to buy a solid german company...5.5% divi to boot...

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  10. kli,

    do you think $HUI may tag 550 range?

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  11. rude.........dont have a clue.....more interested right now to see if it finishes above 608 today....if it does then game on

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  12. didn't someone mention dzz yesterday?..good call..

    I'm nibbling on BCRX as cup and handle is complete...spec bio play...not much downside risk...upside looks promising...playing it because of cup and handle timing right before flu season..

    though I hope that nothing comes of it...

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  13. Added euo, do you see the euro surviving? Also have a little uup.

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  14. Hearing margin increases on the PMs coming on Fri. fwiw.

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  15. sista....hehehe eurozone is in shambles...don't worry about the euro and just watch the $XEU....the move by the SNB indicates to me that some serious dumping of the $XEU is about to commence

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  16. Here is a great talk on algorithm trading by Kevin Slavin a game developer if no one has seen it. He says: "The quickest way to find out what the boundaries of reality are is to figure where they break."

    http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/kevin_slavin_how_algorithms_shape_our_world.html

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  17. honest,

    i had had DZZ, thanks, too some profit, some still left on the table.

    anyone tracking oil? looks like it is near the top of the downtrend channel on the daily chart. tempted to nibble at DTO here.

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  18. yup.......nibble is good rude on dto

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  19. http://www.wcvarones.com/2011/09/greenspans-body-count-cy-young-award.html

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  20. Thx kli,meant for holding euo. Held off on gdxj thank goodness.

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  21. just posted HUI chart and yes sista EUO is a hold Add if it hits 142 on the $XEU

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  22. Kli,

    Looking at your $hui chart, i now understand why a close above $608 level is important, if it can jump into the bottem of the upper channel and hold, that could set up a very meaty move upwards. interesting, i was focused on the top of the lower channel, and eyeing a bigger move down. 2 sides to the coin. i like how you target the next move. thanks for the chart.

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  23. Terrific, thanks. May not get to 142, but ya never know.

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  24. Hey Kli,

    Question for you, and anyone else who wants to chime in.

    I realize GLD and SLV are only fractionally backed up by physical metal and have the potential to vaporize should any group of large shareholders actually request delivery on their shares. Unfortunately, they are the only PM stocks that offer options. I was thinking of selling some near the money front month covered calls on these to pick up some extra income for the family.

    So the question is...how safe is this? I understand the risks of trade itself, but was wondering if you thought there was potential in the next 3 months for these ETF's to fold. Thanks in advance.

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  25. dont do it wilks..keep it simple .....buy PSLV and hold here

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  26. Silver rebounding nicely. I still like cef....

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  27. Thanks buddy. I will take your sage advice as always.

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  28. What Bob Pisani forgot to tell you about GLD

    http://m.youtube.com/index?desktop_uri=%2F%3Fgl%3DGB%26hl%3Den-GB&hl=en-GB&gl=GB#/watch?v=k08BXBGrCtk

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  29. shout out to chuck scalped AIXG.....thnks

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  30. also.......BULLLLLLISH close for miners.

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  31. wonder if they go after um again tomorrow....I SAY YES YES YES....

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  32. Got 'em on my watch list to add to ric, cef, rgld...

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  33. Bloomberg reports Canadian Police on the svm anonymous letter: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-07/silvercorp-says-canadian-police-offer-to-find-source-of-fraud-claim-letter.html

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  34. For shorter term trading of index etf prefer QID over RWM. Placed a small bet based on hourly technicals. Markets could still be pushed higher a little to screw the Germans.

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  35. Red ...kinda livin on the wild side again...I'll stick with the old man's RWM.....I can't handle the leveraged etfs.....they're hard on my heart....hehehhehehe

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  36. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  37. Red, yeah Kli is a wuss. hehehe. Will add a few more QID shares if it breaks 50.

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  38. You boyz will not badger me into "risk" taking...I am no longer able to handle the strain......ok ok if they push the snp to 1212 tomorrow ......i might

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