Thursday, September 1, 2011

UNEMPLOYMENT


Once again we get to the key......the CON in eCONomy...CONfidence. Key statistics released recently showed that over 50% of Americans were fearful they could lose their job in the next year. Shocked? I doubt if most of you are. Its been discussed here and in your comments. Restoration of this critical element in an economy is paramount to whether or not the velocity of money can be restored again. The CON is the problem. Everyone is getting wise to it. They may be 180 degrees wrong as to its cause and its solutions, but they know it when they smell it, and it stinks now to the moon. If the unemployment numbers are better than expected the market could sell off 300 points. No one believes anything anymore. Particulary the numbers and right now the only thing this market is in the process of,is rotting. That doesn't mean you can't make money at it however.

Guessing the markets reaction tomorrow is impossible, but guessing the market over the next 3 weeks is a little easier. We need a pullback and a buy and hold pulverizing. Without it the boyz cannot get the sideline money back in. Especially after the recent damage to investor psyche. For one thing you can count on a Bernanke bounce. If Ben doesn't bring in the sugar it may only last a day or two. If the market is tanking hard prior to the meeting then we can look at how much room we have to run in terms of time. I don't think Ben is going to release the big sugar at the meeting. Its expected...unless the market breaks the recent lows prior to the meeting. Right now I have a guess we get a nice two week bounce out of whatever Ben does. Maybe up to the 1270 level...then another hard tank and a real ball buster of an October. Enough that Ben will be forced to bring out the sugar and bring it out in a massive move....probably in late October after the market has just been crushed.....below 1100 maybe below 1000. We'll see. We need blood in the streets for that sideline money to get in.

We play the market, NOT the economy. The economy is in collapse. Do not confuse the two. We're playing sugar here. We're playing what the boyz are doing and the reasons why. Be very careful on the long side until you see blood and can't stand pushing that buy button. Watch the charts. Look at the monthlies...the weeklies...the RSIs the stochastics. Day trade for small gains on intraday oversolds on stocks you like. This is guerilla warfare in the pits. You have an advantage. Your measly number of shares does nothing to the share price when you move in and out. USE THAT. Nothing wrong with buying 1K or 2K shares and taking a 20c move as an oversold intraday move develops. USE the VOLATILITY when things get rolling. ABOVE all keep 40-50% cash in place until this thing shows us its tradable BOTTOM.



















57 comments:

  1. Hmm gold seems happy about something this morning, though a lot of times that's no good for the miners :\

    If anyone else has good reading suggestions, that borders liquidation sale put me in a book-buying kinda mood so let me know.

    ReplyDelete
  2. End Game, The end of the Debt Supercycle by John Mauldin
    Just picked it up third of the way through good read. Runs thru each country issues how they got there and their own likely conclusions.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Ben to the rescue....his recent speech was about jobs..more ammmo now...

    svm was definitely btfdip

    ReplyDelete
  4. Shopping for some solars today. SOL, HSOL, and LDK on radar.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I'm picking up a little tklc...it has solid support right here...

    ReplyDelete
  6. SVM being accused of fraud! LOL...Great, great commentary kli. Don't know what I'd do without your blog through these times. euo and fxf as hedges until further notice. Best to all...

    ReplyDelete
  7. thnx sista.....tklc chuck looks like a player here.....but only trading it..careful ryan..bottom pickers can get burned...juust be cautious...no heavy bets here...this market needs to tank

    ReplyDelete
  8. http://silvercorpmetals.com/news/2011/index.php?&content_id=304

    ReplyDelete
  9. AIXG seems to bounce from here..it is resting on 200 weekly good support...Germany tech play...

    waiting to see if it starts getting a bid in afternoon...might get a bounce with DAX on Monday with market closed....

    can anyone else confirm BCRX cup and handle on daily...it looks to perfect

    ReplyDelete
  10. Joe, Great rebuke by SVM...but so far the shorts are still in control...

    ReplyDelete
  11. re: SVM

    Anon letters hummmm......... Seems some folks didn't like the time under the broiler the other day! Like that SVM is fighting back!

    ReplyDelete
  12. svm, are the shorts all getting out now and gunning for the 200 at 6.98?

    ReplyDelete
  13. Awesome short attack on SVM, crooked, manipulative, just the kind of thing that will drive investors out of the stock and perpetuate the fall...

    ReplyDelete
  14. my $7.04 limit order on SVM got filled ... guess I'll hold with a stop below 7 ... not a fan of playing with the big guys in Joe's playground :)

    ReplyDelete
  15. I guess heheeeeeeee depends on your entry price! Still have some powder but this is one heck of a sand box fight

    ReplyDelete
  16. Bought SVM at $8, doubled at $7.8, sold all at 7.7 and picked a lucky limit order bottom ... NOW, I'm ready for joe to bring on the squeeze :) ... small position, so this is more roulette

    ReplyDelete
  17. Yep, pleeeze bring the squeeez...and soon!

    ReplyDelete
  18. Paying a divi in Oct. and when do they report? Anonymous says it all...unfortunately gonna hafta get some heavy duty legal help.

    ReplyDelete
  19. Short attack mummy, short attack, sky is falling, sky is falling, heheeeeeeeeeee!

    ReplyDelete
  20. Wolfman,

    I am having lots of fun with SVM today, heheeeeeeee!

    ReplyDelete
  21. Nancy,

    How strong is your heart? You needed it with SVM, heheeeeee!

    ReplyDelete
  22. not playing the fun. I have a small SVM position and a bunch of cash if it goes lower, but not nibbling here. Interesting to watch though. What a game.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Ken,

    SVM right now is big time game, my kind of stock!

    ReplyDelete
  24. No doubt you do ... just tell us the direction of your fun exercise so we can laugh with you :)

    ReplyDelete
  25. From the looks of the volume I bet you are !

    ReplyDelete
  26. btw, I'm having fun, too - mainly with RWM. Of course enjoying my physical, too on a day like this

    ReplyDelete
  27. Wolfman,

    You will see it on screen, follow the volume and the price tick and you see my direction when volume increases . I am having fun with hedge funds, mono o mono, good fight today!

    ReplyDelete
  28. Their plan today was to take it down to 6.50 when 7.70 broke down, at 7.08 I trapped 5 of them big boyz with heavy cash especially one of them from hong kong. This is gureilla warfare in both side of the coin!

    ReplyDelete
  29. Thanks joe, that's a refreshingly conspicuous hint :)

    ReplyDelete
  30. Wolf,

    If it was only one or two hedge fund short then I could tell you where the bottom is, there are lot of hedgefunds playing SVM today which means at the moment of vulnerability I bring heat, that's why I call it gureilla warfare, and not open warfare, name of the game is create diversion among them and then attack, retreat and wait for the next opening for charge.

    ReplyDelete
  31. itz WARRRRR in da pits.......just had SVM on CNBS with Herb Greenberg......saying no one knows anything

    ReplyDelete
  32. just closed out RWM for my second trip today......yum yum.....not a big lot...but it all adds up

    ReplyDelete
  33. Awe man, Joe! I would have grabbed some shares at $6.50.

    ReplyDelete
  34. ken........you need a position...and hold...my next buy IF they hit it is 6.02

    ReplyDelete
  35. Ken ...let joe play with the sharks.....just nibble

    ReplyDelete
  36. I have a small position at 8, in the mid 6's I would have added. At 6.02ish, I would load up big time.

    I figure it has room to drop with a market decline. Not day trading at the moment. Too much work to do. Grabbed RWM Tuesday afternoon. Lightened up IPSU this week. Holding a few miners, but 50%+ cash

    ReplyDelete
  37. lightened up on my miner core today big time....will reassess over the weekend....holding a smaller core now and PSLV EUO

    ReplyDelete
  38. this market scares me.....hehehehhehehehe

    ReplyDelete
  39. SVM-They took it close enough to weekly 200sma...

    capitulation and exhaustion day....

    ReplyDelete
  40. Let half RWM go will hang on to rest, we shall see.

    ReplyDelete
  41. nibbling on DCTH down here...yesterdays news was expected...big news coming on phase 11 & 3 next week..

    ReplyDelete
  42. SSRI was a MONSTER today.....way outperformed many others.....hope you all looked at the two HL charts I posted this afternoon.....VERY CLEAR TRADES

    ReplyDelete
  43. kli, release on DCTH is the 12th...my bad...maybe run up until then..in green already..

    ReplyDelete
  44. actually that makes me happier gives it more time before the announcement

    ReplyDelete
  45. There are hedge funds and then there is Frank Holmes. Frank's pocket is DEEEEEEP and he likes SVM:

    http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/10608

    ReplyDelete
  46. heheeeeeeee!

    http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_S/threadview?m=tm&bn=86655&tid=8928&mid=8928&tof=4&frt=2

    ReplyDelete
  47. Get 'em Joe!

    Only thing that Joe has changed is the timing, magnitude of the decline, and who pockets the intraday excess trading profits SVM.

    The long entry for the small fish is after the Hedgies get their Wedgies and the bottoming signal in the technicals. Weekly is around 6.75 but if gold/silver get a further pullback and a coordinated short attack could take it down further towards the monthly lower band.

    I am beginning to doubt if gold (impacting PM miners) will make a meaningful pullback anytime soon.

    Very odd coordinate attack on both miners and China.

    ReplyDelete
  48. Everyone have a hearty and safe labor day weekend!

    tri-tips, Crisp herb salad, corn and watermelon..and some lagunanitas

    ReplyDelete
  49. Red,

    Your analysis is spot on. For an average investor/trader 6.75 is a good entry or addition. SVM is a good company and way undervalued at current prices. The coordinated attack on miners and china you mentioned is also very POLITICAL. The order to do it has come from bankers and hedge funds just doing what their masters are telling them to do, meaning wall st in this case is just carrying the political orders coming from top and chinese know it, it's battle ground fight between a declining empire and a rising power, politics is mainly tool for economic warfare. SVM is the largest silver miner in China with lots of cash and mines in canada as well.

    ReplyDelete
  50. Red,

    The real scam when it comes to Gold/silver is the ETFs including SLV and GLD, they do not hold any physical, good miners do and that's why coordinated attack, the battle over the control of REAL METAL. SVM happens to hold lots of real physical silver with huge operations in china and that makes it political.

    ReplyDelete
  51. uh oh....

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/09/02/greek-debt-inspectors-sus_n_946679.html

    they use obama speech to ramp up market before german court decision....devious...devilish

    ReplyDelete
  52. http://silvercorpmetals.com/attachments/attachment_d.pdf

    ReplyDelete
  53. Great expose by Clark, not telling us anything we didn't already assume about our foreign policy but it's good to see someone other than Ron Paul with the guts to stand up and say these things.

    ReplyDelete