Monday, January 31, 2011

BACK UNDER CONTROL

The market has resolved the Egypt contagion and the sun shines bright again....well, at least that is what the market wants to say. I'm not so sanguine regarding that proposition, so I will deal with the reality. I will not short oil going into this mess until it becomes more clear what the outcome appears to be. My feeling is that this will spread into other Middle Eastern countries. After all we not only have exported our brand of "democracy" with these tinhorn dictatorships that torture and rape their populations...but we have now exported inflation in essentials like food to them. These are unhappy and unstable populations to put it mildly. Its hard to be fat, happy, and entertained with video games when your belly is growling. You can over look your torturing, oppressive dictatorship until you have trouble feeding your family.

Sooner or later there is going to be a day of reckoning for this mess....and it may be now. Time will tell. One thing is certain....this is not stopping now. Not without the "reckoning". This is going to ultimately wind up very bloody in my opinion. It may be Egypt or it may be another country. No one is talking lately about what I think is a very dangerous and vulnerable situation...and that is PAKISTAN. A very corrupt regime is in power there and the people are being pressed hard by the cost of food. Watch that area. Remember THEY HAVE NUCLEAR WEAPONS.

In our little arena here the market comes to the fore. Hopefully you have a core in the miners and phys pslv. Sit tight.

Uranium is a much more interesting question here. I noticed they took hard corrections on friday. Perhaps we get more follow thru today. Corrections to the 50 and 200 have to be watched for. I'll give a follow up on these later. UEC URZ URA USU. GL today

Saturday, January 29, 2011

REVOLUTION AND THE LONG CON update IV RUN!!

What really caused the revolt in Egypt? You may reply a corrupt and evil government. OK. I can buy that. The problem with a simplistic answer like that is it misses the more interesting nuances, such as what made this all take place now. As discussed here many times over the last two years there are repercussions to outright fraud and corruption. How these are manifest are not easily predictable, but we have maintained that nature has its own timetable.

In Egypt there has been an increasing separation of wealth. Over 40% of their population lives on 10 dollars per week. When you flood the world with freshly printed reserve currency through your banks reserves and push multiple stimulus plans using the same then it begins to impact essentials. Remember this prediction two years ago. On 10 dollars a week and increases in the basic food wheat rice corn sugar etc of 60% on average in one year....guess what? You get a population that finally has the impetus of what pushes many populations out onto the street. FEAR ...thats right FEAR of starvation supercedes fear of the state police. The old "I will die before my wife and children starve". There were no women on the streets in Egypt in any great numbers because the state police have previously sexually groped and raped them in demonstrations....this tactic is very effective and destroys them in a Muslim society.

The abuses of power went on for years but the Bernank had to throw in the final straw that broke the camel's back. Hunger. It is very powerful and can overcome many other fears.

Will we continue to export inflation? ABSOLUTELY. One way or another we will be able to keep this game alive for another year. Meanwhile the true power is position themselves to take advantage of the new landscape being created by accumulating assets that will sustain their power and wealth through the next decades.

This revolt is a dynamic process and will have further destabilizing effects on markets over time. Remember, the effects of this have ramifications for the entire region. This region is essentially composed of states that are puppets of the United States and their populations are sick of it. So be prepared for further outbreaks. I believe that in a perverse way .....that "we" could be behind this. We will see how it ultimately plays out. Whether Mubarak is gone monday or not ...he is finished. This is the beginning of a potentially dramatic change in governments throughout this region so I recommend watching these developments closely.

There are a variety of ways this could effect our investments. Oil alternatives "could" explode as developed countries look for more stable supplies of energy and prices rise. Look for uranium to begin moving up after its consolidation is complete.

Gold and Silver and the miners will respond. Some miners like SLW have corrected over 30%. GL all.

PS.. Do you think Celente still sounds crazy??

One more admonition.....If you don't have your core of miners and PHYS PSLV then I suggest you get it now. This game may have another week of consolidation but don't count on it....

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

update I... alas the end game...."transition"...wonder how the sheeple will like this??

http://www.zerohedge.com/fullrss2.xml

update I.5...... http://seekingalpha.com/article/249223-just-one-stock-heavy-upside-from-a-leveraged-play-on-rising-silver-prices

LIVE FEED ON the Crisis..... http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

update II...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/egyptian-anger-swells-will-america-and-its-regional-interests-be-targeted-next-they-are-atta?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

update III...RUN!!!! GET OUT NOW!!! watta joke....like they can.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41334512/ns/world_news-mideastn_africa/?gt1=43001

update IV....RUN FASTER

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/libya-next

Friday, January 28, 2011

PERFECT WEATHER update VII...eod and more

Does it get any better? Oh...there is that little Amazon glich. I guess you can explain away their miss in this "rebounding" economy. All of this pentup consumer demand willing to "pay up" for all of their junk didn't receive the memo last quarter. What I find telling is that all of the weather out east should have strenthened them against the big box retailers. You know that ALL the numbers were "massaged" for Amazon too which makes their miss all the more telling for the overall health of the consumer and our CONSUMER ECONOMY. What a complet joke. A consumer economy. Are you kiddin me? What kind of country is the leader of the world with a CONSUMER ECONOMY. I'll tell you what kind......how about Great Britain in the last years of its decline. You know....right before it lost the Sterling as the world's reserve currency.

I love how the GDP miss today is being spun. You throw trillions at an economy and even the "massaged" numbers can't reach the estimates. We aren't shocked here and most Americans are sickened by the lies. The promise of change and transparency have long since been forgotten.

The phony pundits on CNBS are saying how this is NOTHING compared to the 70's. Implying the 70s was worse. OMG ...the 70s are nothing compared to this. This is going to make the 70s look like a walk in the park.

The market today appears to be treading water to get the Egyptian turmoil contained. I have no crystal ball on Egypt but I'm sure the Iranian playbook of shooting a few young people and leaving them in the street will work just fine to quell the need for change. Remember though ...these are OUR dictators in Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Yemen etc. that are being toppled. This is OUR empire being dismantled. BTW this is why I took most of my DTO trade off yesterday.

Remember 600 Billion. Its here and more is coming. I'm not listing the core today but you can nibble on pullbacks and trade short term buys too. gl

update I ...Talk about whistling past the graveyard....these misses by ford and toyota are very disturbing for the CON.....

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=amaxZ_vquhDs

update II GFI next buy 14.80 area...14.91 on EGO...7.70 on HL....all will be small adds

update III Bloomberg reporting that there are reports that units of the police are now joining the demonstrators......NOW REPORTING MUBARAKS OFFICE ON FIRE>>>>

http://nation.foxnews.com/president-obama/2011/01/28/obama-under-fire-day-rage-dawns-egypt

update IV....THE GAME and how it is played....

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-closes-eurusd-trade-two-days-after-revising-target-140

update V...AMAZING LIVE FEED FROM EGYPT..

http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

update VI....what a day!!! My sources are saying that Mubarak is on his way out of Egypt as I type....NO CONFIRMATION from media yet. What you are witnessing today is the impact of years of OUR middle east policy coming to a head. Without going into detail I will only add that the Bernank Banking cabal has lit a fire under every unstable government in the world with their poison. QE is breaking apart the populations in these Emerging Markets. Unless we are able to pull a rabbit out of our asses here this ponzi is in big trouble. GL to all I hope you understand the ramifications of what is happening. BTW did you notice who was absent today? hehehhehehe gl to all.

update VII and more....conspiratorial but interesting..

http://www.thedailybell.com/1717/Fall-of-Saudi-Arabia-to-End-Dollar-Reserve-System.html

Thursday, January 27, 2011

ALL CLEAR update III

Is it now? Really? You mean the economy? Or do you mean the commodity trade? Maybe you mean the precious metal trade after yesterday's incredible reversal?

One thing that must be emphasized is the economy is in truly deep chit. But do not be fooled it will NOT crack this year. In fact I believe that some of our statistics will show evidence of a REAL RECOVERY. In fact I believe these will show up in the next quarter.... " There are Lies, damned lies, and statistics" Mark Twain.... Again, this is a PLAN...it is coordinated and WILL have an effect on the economy...or at least our perception. I believe there will be some degree of success. But make no mistake. They have screwed the pooch and the often talked about structural issues WILL NOT BE OVERCOME with their smoke and mirrors. All we are accomplishing is shoring up our very biggest bank's broken balance sheets....while the peasants are left to rot.....Make no mistake my republican friends. Even if you are still a millionaire....you are still a peasant. That is an illusion you need to get over. You are a slave to this massive fraud just like the next peasant.

Back to the game. Here is the bottom line. QE and money WILL flow and gold and silve and uranium and soft commods and all commods have wind in their sails this year. You must believe in your underlying understanding of this trade and continue to reinforce your beliefs by studying this simple fact. WE HAVE MONEY BEING MADE WEEKLY. IT WILL FIND ITS WAY TO THIS TRADE THIS YEAR.

Next ...today is a day to add to your miners on a pullback but try and hold dry powder....we could get a retest OR we could get another scare to shake out the weak hands. But if you aren't in the miners or the physical you need to be in them. I recommend PSLV and PHYS instead of GLD or SLV. The GLD and SLV are JPM's tool to SHORT the metals and suppress the prices. ANV SLW appear to have found their bottom ....so lets watch......gl today

update I.... I have followed Melvin King the top dog of Great Britain's central bank and he actually has been relatively blunt.....

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/1/27_Jim_Rickards_-_BoE_Governor_is_Right,_We_Are_in_a_Depression.html


http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/1/26_London_Trader_-_Big_Money_Lined_Up_To_Buy_Gold_%26_Silver.html

update II... must read

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/global-revolution-accelerating-mike-krieger-explains

update III.... After hours big smell by Amazon....sure folks its all getting better......all those unemployed and underemployed with stagflation starting to eat them alive....ARE GONNA BUY SHIT FROM AMAZON.....hahahahahahhaahahhah

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goodnight-amazon-worlds-most-overhyped-retailer-misses-top-and-bottom-line?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

SOMEWHERE

Somewhere there's a place for us.....to coin an old song title... but its not in a world that I recognize. We live in a world of illusion. We live in that world for a very clear reason as I see it. This world is broken...or perhaps more accurately...broke. There is no way out except through an extend and pretend policy. After another State of the Union Farce, even the average American isn't buying it. What we are doing right now is playing in a casino that is bankrupt and about to have its power turned off.....but we just don't know when. It reminds me of the Donald Trump bankrupty (or lack of) in the 80s. The pompous comb-over had amassed an unheard of ammount of debt and was going under in Atlantic City. The phrase "too big to fail" gained popular attention when the banks restructured his loans rather than put his holdings into "strong hands" like capitalism calls for. I guess this country thinks it can do the same with our current debt. Just extend and extend until the creditors "restructure" us.

Unfortunately it is not going to end as well for us. WE...YOU AND I..are now the creditors that are going to take the haircut for this. That is what was done over the last three years by the Fed and our representatives. We are going to receive slave status for years to come as the bankers take the last loaves of bread off the shelves before they close down the ponzi. WHY? WHY? WHY? WHY? did we ever let it come to this. How did we let our Country get taken over by K Street and the Banksters? Sorry if you haven't figured this out by now then you don't need to be on this blog. It was YOU. IT was ME. It was us not speaking out for the people. We had an obligation.

Back to work....this is another day of silver and gold beat down. Watch for evidence of a change volume is picking up so we are getting close on the miners. This is "change you can believe in".

Uranium remains in no man land. Look for more correction here over the next few weeks...but hold a core in URZ UEC USU URA.

enjoy this blast from the past....this is your next president. Realize who his masters are.....

http://dailybail.com/home/busted-watch-tarp-republican-paul-ryan-begging-congress-to-v.html

Biotechs remain a speculative/high reward play... OREX...DCTH...and big spec RNN.

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

LIONS AND TIGERS AND BEARS...OH MY! update I

Well hear we are gang....into 2011. Just another year to go and the Grand Supercycle washout begins. Toto we aren't in Kansas anymore. This is the real deal. This is where the rubbler meets the road. This is where the chit hits the fan. OK I quit...enough cliches lets get on with it. Seems a little surreal doesn't it. There are no massive food riots. You can't find the tent cities on youtube. Oil is still flowing and your local Starbucks is still serving $5 cups of coffee.

Just one problem. You have one big massive Ponzi going on. You have a government that is completely corrupt. You have an administration who's first act to give us the promised reform and transparency was to reappoint Ben Bernanke and appoitnt Tim Geitner as Sec Treasury, and Larry Summers to Council of Economic advisor. He pulled in all the usual Wall Street hacks as his advisors and called a special meeting with the top 7 bankers. Well.....so much for transparency and change.

After two years of "extend and pretend" you have the same massive malinvestment issues except WORSE. You have the same structural unemployment except NOW its a full 2 1/2 years of unemployed millions that have ZERO chance of coming back into the work force. Never since the Great Depression has this country had this issue. AND HOW are we dealing with it? QE ....That's right QE....buying our debt by printing money....So just relax. Take a chill pill. This game has a little longer to play out. Remember this is about money being pumped into the system. WE are NOT crashing tomorrow. Not without one big fochin Black Swan, and that cannot be forseen.

Keep watchin for the turn in the miners and read the comments for ideas. Right now ANV and SLW are getting close. Another 10% and maybe.....Buy real bullion and stay strong. Biotechs are speculative and that is EXACTLY why money will flow into them. Because that is what happens to "hot" money....it goes to beta sectors. PAY ATTENTION. ALSO URANIUM ... UEC USU URZ.... have fun....its only fiat.

update I.......shocking bloomberg Faber interview today....watch the video at the bottom...of the article...BOTH videos..

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/marc-fabers-most-provocative-interview-ever-compares-obama-prostitute-goes-long-treasurys?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

Monday, January 24, 2011

MONDAY MORNING

The casino is open. I'm enjoying the snow today and will get to take a couple of runs with my old friends today. I hope you are all well. This is one of the more interesting weeks for news. With the state of the Union and the Fed meeting...I can't imagine its worth being short this week. The game with precious metals appears to be unchanged with all guns out aimed at the metals. Never underestimate true power and recognize that you have NONE...hehehhe. Sorry ...just trying to keep it in reality.

Let's never forget we are all owned by the true power. Everything that exists is a facade.hehehhehe. I love it. I learned today that a faithful water carrier for the status quo ...Larry King is gone. I used to love Larry King years ago when Turner had CNN and it reported news. Now its just infotainment with over one hundred reruns of the Atlanta Children's murders from the 80's. Larry was never a hard hitter but he had an occasional guest that was informative. Not anymore. His last years his audience had reached only 660 thousand viewers per show...WOW. But he carried the water for the PTB until he was over 80....

You can't find news on TV anymore. I wonder why?? Do you think maybe the breakdown in Algiera Tunisia Yemen Greece is news?? I guess not. Each fire needs to be dealt with in "privacy". In the old days it could be done but with social networking its more difficult. Of course most Americans still just play games on the computer.

Lets remain patient in the market and hold our cash right now. gl gang

Sunday, January 23, 2011

MEGA CORRECTION IN GOLD AND SILVER?

As soon as the overbought gold and silver trade gets sold off...the naysayers step forward with their run and hide the end of the precious metal trade is upon us. Could this be true? Sure it could, but today I want to exam some of the predictions and have you as an investor decide for yourself.

Number one.... Have we reached a tipping point with the prices of essentials? In other words, does the Bernank have to shut down the printing presses because of the crushing prices of essentials on the consumer. Is the public on the streets rioting? Is the public on the street protesting? Is the public not buying all of their stuff? Are Americans still the fatest hogs on mother earth? WELL.........OK. Ben is still going to continue to print money.

Number two.... The new marshall is in town in the form of the Republican congress. ARE YOU KIDDIN ME? Stop reading this blog right now if you have not figured this scam out yet. THERE WILL BE NO MEANINGFUL EFFECT ON BEN FROM THEM. First of all the Federal Reserve OWNS both parties. The republipukes are close allies of the bankers...make no mistake. Pay no attention to the rhetoric (with the exception of Ron Paul). Whatever the Fed wishes to do it will be allowed to do by BOTH parties in spite of what might be said publicly.

Number three....The massive buying in the actual bullion market will stop as the price of the precious metals continue to drop. I wonder? Really? So suddenly the CONfidence pump in the "recovery" is taking hold and the "smart money" stops buying the bullion....believing that true recovery is now in full throttle. Remember I said "smart money". They believe that the global devaluation in world currencies is over and now its upwards and onwards. Oooooboy. So lets get this straight. No one is going to take advantage of cheaper bullion prices??

Number four ..... and I stop for now......The massive short positions that provide control of these PM markets are just going to continue to ADD paper short positions and not try and cover their position. They are just going to keep adding paper shorts while massive accumulation of the actual bullion goes out the back door on them?? Interesting tactic...I never would have believed they could be that devious. WAIT...Yes I can. So here is my strategy. Lets just say they have reached a suicidal/kamikazee "between a rock and a hard place" position here. This is IT. This is where ALL THE FOCHIN STOPS are pulled to kill this trade.......Ok...I'll buy it...So here is what you do. Keep it simple. Hold your core as I have said to have and WAIT. WAIT AND WATCH how far they can take it and watch for the turn. We'll see it. Its called price action higher highs higher lows and volume. Patience and relax. Let these bastards work for YOU. These are NOT normal times. This is an incredible battle right here. This is literally a battle for Global supremecy. Let the big boys fight it out. My guess is they can't take it much further. Let's see what the next two weeks bring.

Do you really think this will stop???... http://seekingalpha.com/article/247866-chinese-silver-demand-quadruples-in-one-year-a-lesson-for-the-west?source=dashboard_stocks-sectors

Saturday, January 22, 2011

PATIENCE!!! updateII

Don't worry, the title is a reminder to me. This is one nasty market to try and trade....but to escape an ulcer just recognize the facts. The Bernank has told you the trade. Its called REINFLATION. Its called QE. Its called TRILLIONS in multiple programs to get this destroyed economy back on its feet. The problem of course is ALL the programs have been essentially aimed at the very largest Banks and Corporations that put us in this predicament. So essentially the remaining strong are going to have their lifeblood pulled out of them to reinvigorate the crooks that put us in this spot of trouble. Lovely isn't it?

So we have to play the cards we are being dealt to play in this casino. HOUSE RULES.
For what its worth it makes me sick to think that is all this once proud and independent country has become.... a casino. Now that I think about it, I guess it is appropriate. Even Alan Greenspan is touting Gold as backing our currency once again. What a complete JOKE!! This banker hack was touted as the second coming for years while he created bubble after bubble. Now that he is out he suddenly finds monetary Jesus....I DON'T THINK SO BIG AL.

We are careening down the road to hell in the Bernank express and whistling pass every graveyard. You can watch Mainstream media for news and it covers Octamom, American Idol, the Emmys, ....not the Bangladesh stock market street riots this week. Not the riots/civil war in Tunisia. Not the 30,000 killed in Mexico's drug/civil war. Not the Greece riots. Not the GB demonstrations or the Ireland demonstrations and government collapse. NOPE>>>>> Dancing with the Stars or BIGGEST LOSER. That is what the public is being fed. Sorry .....it is what we allow ourselves to be fed. So shut up....sit back.... and play the game, but understand the end game. The end game suckers is that when you go to spend your winnings....the money may be so debased that its value may be in the loafs of bread and alpo you can carry in a bag. So enjoy. The Kondratiev Winter does not suffer fools lightly. Is it going to be the end of civilization as we know it? I am planning on the answer to that as NO!! However the economic displacement is unknown and supercycle events can be painful for a lot of participants.

Enjoy the illusion that we are in a recovery. Its the cards we are being dealt, just be aware this will almost certainly fail. Even Bill Gross and El Arian are becoming doom and gloomers. Bond guys are always the sharpest tacks in the box. Hang in there and anyone that needs help feel free to express their concerns or needs anytime in the comments. GL all.....Hold your cash tight and lets see the turn in the miners and stocks before we throw any more chips on the table. There is plenty of time to get in the action if you have your core.

update I.....Trader Dan takes on Uncle Al

http://jsmineset.com/2011/01/22/trader-dan-comments-on-greenspans-gold-standard/

update II....If you listen to those that defend this system then I suggest you take the time to listen to Dr. Black's lecture on how dupped you are....this is staggering and irrefutable. A wonderful video that Jesse posted.

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/08/this-financial-disaster.html

Friday, January 21, 2011

BLUE SKIES AGAIN update II

Markets are green....OPEX today. Should be a nice day to sit and watch. I have tried nibbling on some miners SLW ANV GFI. My core in these was low. I have also developed a good heavy core now in PSLV and PHYS. The last three days have been brutal but I hope most of you are holding tight on your cash reserves and not bottom picking just yet....but we are nearing at least a tradable bottom in PMs. I was working on the long term trendlines of gold and found the 1300-1320 area as an important area to watch. Expect the buyers to step in here. We shall see.

Silver is my biggest holding right now and I say go for it Blythe. Knock it to hell. I still have more cash and the more you kick it here the better. It may hurt you to look at your portfolio, but remember its only paper and when they are through with this crazy world it may still be only paper. I am going to think positive there. You have to believe in the bankers for something. I do. I am hoping they keep the system intact. Never misread my hope. Be prepared for chaos but hope that we get through this with our skin still attached. I saw a Bloomberg runner that George Lucas is preparing for the end of the world in 2012. Well....that puts me in the sanity crowd I guess. I'm planning to make money....but I will be prepared for some shake up in things. Those scarce and expensive essential with a terrible economy aren't going to make things "happy times".

OK OK...to the trade ...Watch UEC URZ USU...or just URA. These are going to be long term money makers and I am talking big money over time. Uranium is going to be a big play. Once again...don't go heavy in any one are 10% is a rule.

In biotechs OREX DCTH seem to be the safer plays in this area. ASTM is more speculative. CBST is a conservative play I own too. I never give you my entire portfolio but I own about 25 stocks on average. gl have fun.

update I http://www.thetradingreport.com/2011/01/19/an-interpretation-of-the-china-silver-short-theory-and-fractional-reserve-bullion/

UNBELIEVABLE..... http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41188877/ns/business-the_new_york_times/?GT1=43001

Thursday, January 20, 2011

RIP UM UP

Should be another nice trading day if you want to try and play in a casino with a little volatility. I may try some shorts in DTO EUO. My advice to those with limited ammo left is to sit tight and let the commodity titans fight it out. It appears and I agree with this strategy .....that Benyanke wants some air out of the froth. I expect a down ward trending overall market for at least another week. Commodities are being severely beaten. They cannot be allowed to go to the moon quite yet. If you keep in mind what the game is....QE QE QE....then you know these pullbacks cannot last much longer than a week or two. I think May will provide the bigger opportunity to short. In the meantime they want that DOW 12000 number printed.

The precious metals and miners game is being brutalized. No surprise. That's always been the game with these guys. REMEMBER PMs threaten the worlds perception of the banker's fiat currency game. THEY have to keep it in check. Which is how you can make a lot of money. Realizing this lets you continue to sell the rips and buy the dips. If it weren't manipulated gold would be over 2000 already and silver over 100 dollars. In time these metals will move to where they belong. Ultimately I see gold over 5000 and silver at 200. I've been adding to a core here in PHYS and PSLV. I remain patient ..waiting to see a bottom. Let's see if they can get gold below 1350...maybe take out 1300 and get some panic. Same with silver...25 would be a nice buy area. only guesses.

Take a look at OREX....its going to be approved in my OPINION. I've been wrong on these biotechs before but OREX really has an advantage over the VVUS and ARNA drugs for obesity. VVUS IMO will NOT get approval. The use one of the components from the ill fated Fen-fen. Its phenteramine and its an amphetamine...pure and simple. This country is dying of obesity and its costs to us are staggering. I think the FDA is under pressure to get a drug in there to help. OREX is the best chance IMO.

Don't forget DCTH. Its not as sexy but it should get approval too. It is only a delivery system for giving chemotherapy directly to the tumor area.

Stay out of the way of this mess for another few days before you nibble. gl

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

ITS OVER!!! update I

What's over? The Great Correction in gold and silver? I hope not. I still have cash to invest. Then again as advised I have a nice fat core too of PM stocks. So I shall watch today for hints such as volume in the individual miner stocks. Yesterday there was a huge volume increase in ANV. Someone was accumulating. That does NOT mean it was the bottom. The other miners were not showing the same evidence. It was encouraging yesterday to see green virtually across the board though on the miners. Just not the same high volume.

Overnight action has been strong in the precious metals and that is very worthy to note as key technical areas are being tested with 29 in silver ggggone. I think silver is still the overweight PM to be in. Gold as I talked about may have bottomed so beware I would not be selling my CORE here even slightly. That's why we call it a core. Let's be cautious. This could be a wild ride.

Confirmation in PM's can wait. Let's watch the uranium sector today. Yesterday was a BIG day for URA which I use as a proxy for these stocks. It broke out and cleared resistance of 21.30. Be prepared with your seatbelts fastened USU UEC etc....have fun.

Watch the action.

update I should speed the correction should be good for gold if it starts spreading

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/spain-bail-out-cajas-more-billions-taxpayer-funded-risk-transfer

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

MALINVESTMENT

Get used to this terminology. It underlies everything. It's the real problem that lingers from over 30 years of misplaced public policy that intersected with the bankers soul purpose..... Think of this as a sale of everything of value that could be sold. In other words "what can we (the bankers) sell to make profit"? How about our first born children? Might as well. We sold everything else in this country of value. What are our babies worth now anyway? That's how these guys think. No vision to the future of this country. On to the next feeding frenzy. Right now I see no political will in the people or political leader on the horizon to alter this machine. If you understand malinvestment then you understand that it is not something that can be put back on track in a country overnite. It will take an enormous wake-up call to find the political will to begin turning this problem around and my guess is that even if we find it...the time involved to change will take over 10 years minimally. My calculations are worsening malinvestment for another 5 years as deflation washes out the excesses and the country falls into oligarchy with an increasingly restless public. Food and other essentials will become scarce and political unrest will ultimately result in a complete political upheaval. How it ultimately plays out will determine whether my scenario of gradual improvement takes shape.

Today we keep our eyes focused on Silver. Wee need to break above 29 and hold. I say NO WAY. But I have a nice big core if we do. My feeling is there is more correction coming and will keep my eye on the 28 level for a break of it. This is all short term BS and you have to be in the game with a position in physical silver or PSLV. That is a must here. Just HOPE they beat it down for a couple of weeks to add more. There are so many forces at work right now in the precious metals market that KNOWING what they are going to do is impossible. Gold is going to be the 1300 level that I will watch for a bottom buy. Otherwise it may have found its bottom here. GL gang

Monday, January 17, 2011

WE DON'T LIKE YOUR STINKIN CABAL

So we're gonna do our own....well kinda sorta anyway. The chit is hittin the fan as reality meets the proverbial rock and a hardplace scenario. Trying to fit an 800lb gorilla through a garden hose is not gonna be easy. Of course the bankers always new what the eventual outcome would be of a Massive Ponzi and the ultimate deleveraging process. Of course there are people out there clinging to the belief that the cabal can turn water into gold.....nice article from ZH...follows below.

The reverse dutch auction model for Europe's insolvent countries is dead. Earlier today Spain announced it would cancel its planned bond auction for January 20, and instead plough ahead with syndicated issuance. For those unclear with what this means, Spain is essentially saying the market pricing mechanism on its debt is too transparent and adds "volatility" and therefore the country would rather have banks underwrite the whole issue i.e., take the issuance risk on their books, thus spare Spain the embarrassment of a failed bond auction. And Spain is just the start: Portugal and Belgium have followed suit, in an action that is sure to stretch the already frayed nerves of European sovereign bond investors as this kind of last ditch effort is always taken before something is about to go "snap." From the Irish Times: "Spain's Treasury, facing a volatile market as it looks for ways to keep its debt costs under control, cancelled a bond auction planned for Thursday and said it would issue a syndicated bond over 10 years. Belgium is also seeking an opportunity to place debt with a syndicate of banks and Portugal also plans one for the first quarter, as fiscally stretched sovereign issuers elsewhere in Europe also seek to cut spiraling financing costs." And lest readers get the impression that this is purely a European development, China just announced that it is suspending its sterilization bill sales for the balance of the week. Did the European bond market suddenly die?

From Irish Times:

Risks premiums on Spanish and Portuguese debt widened and one analyst said Spain's announcement could add a new layer of uncertainty to an already tense debt market.

"Some weeks ago this possibility was being speculated about. But, far from calming markets it could be interpreted as an attempt by the Treasury to avoid more uncertainty and assure financing at a fixed rate," said an economist at IG Markets, Soledad Pellon.

The Treasury said the new bond would be a similar volume as last year's syndicated issue, between €4 billion and €5 billion.

Spain sold €5 billion in its 10-year syndicated bond issue on Thursday, which was priced at 53 to 56 basis points over mid-swaps.

The Treasury is expected to pay a much higher price for the new issue with the euro zone debt crisis having sent premiums sky-high on fears Spain might be forced to apply for a Ireland-style bailout.

The premiums investors demand to hold Spanish 10-year bonos over German Bunds stood at 239 basis points, up from around 233 bps at the open today and a long way from pre-crisis levels of below 70 bps in April 2010.

The syndicated bond will replace a planned issue of existing 10 and 15-year bonds due on Thursday, the Treasury said.

It also appears that Europe still not heart Goldman:

BBVA, Barclays, BNP Paribas, Citi, Santander and SGCIB are lead managers.

As for China, it is also not immune from the vicissitudes of reality. From Market News:

The People's Bank of China said Monday that it is suspending open market sales of sterilization bills this week.

The central bank made its announcement in a short statement which did not offer any explanation. The statement also did not indicate whether or not liquidity will be adjusted via bond repurchase agreements on Tuesday or Thursday.

The suspension follows Friday's announcement of a 50 basis point reserve requirement increase, effective January 20, while the PBOC typically works to ensure that banks have enough cash on hand to meet the high demand associated with the Chinese New Year holiday, which begins this year on February 2.

Primary market yields on three-month and one-year paper rose for a third straight week last week as a result of the hike in benchmark interest rates announced by the PBOC on December 25.

The PBOC drained a combined CNY88 billion last week via seven, 14- and 91-day repos last week.

Central bank open market activity last week resulted in a net injection of CNY19 billion versus the previous week's addition of CNY16 billion, according to Market News International calculations.

The reserve hike will remove nearly CNY400 billion, according to analyst estimates.

And while we are not too worried about China (yet), we are a little more concerned about Europe. As are others it seems: the EURUSD, after trading at almost 1.34 on Friday on Goldman's "surprise" upgrade of the pai, dropped as low as 1.3240 overnight before briefly reversing its losses. It is going much lower as Europe becomes increasing isolated in a banker cocoon.

Sunday, January 16, 2011

OH IF IT WERE ALL THAT EASY

HOLD STEADY dear England. You are the sentinel Central Bank of yore. If you go then we all go....so HOLD STEADY my dear. You know very well that the pleebs are going to start to scream when they can't afford the essential. But print more red food stamp cards. You know they hate petrol at 8 dollars usd a gallon...but hold steady hold steady.

Ernst & Young LLP’s Item Club will say the Bank of England must “hold its nerve” and not raise its key interest rate until the recovery shows signs of overcoming the impact of the government’s budget squeeze.

“With inflation likely to reach 4 percent this spring, the Monetary Policy Committee will come under intense pressure,” the research group will say in a report to be issued in London tomorrow, according to an e-mailed statement. It should “keep base rates where they are until it is clear that the economy is taking the fiscal adjustment in its stride.”

The central bank maintained emergency stimulus last week as it weighed the threats of spending cuts against the risk that higher oil prices and sales tax rate will keep inflation above the government’s 3 percent limit. Citigroup Inc., Societe Generale SA and BNP Paribas SA said this month the bank may increase the benchmark rate faster than previously anticipated.

The Item Club, which uses the same forecasting model as the U.K. Treasury, will revise its prediction for economic growth this year to 2.3 percent from 2.2 percent. It will cut its 2012 projection to 2.8 percent from 2.9 percent.

“The fiscal retrenchment will keep gross domestic product subdued, while commodity price rises and the VAT hike will push inflation close to 4 percent and leave the MPC agonizing whether to increase the base rate,” Peter Spencer, chief economic adviser at the Item Club and a former Treasury official, will say. “However, it’s vital that the MPC stands firm.”

The group will say that exports and investment will be “sufficiently strong” for the recovery to continue and that inflation will slow, easing pressure on household incomes. The central bank held its key rate at a record low 0.5 percent and bond plan at 200 billion pounds ($317 billion) last week.

In a sign of building price pressures, input-price inflation accelerated to 12.5 percent in December from 9.2 percent, data last week showed. Consumer-price growth may have quickened to a seven-month high of 3.4 percent, according to the median forecast of 31 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

The U.K. statistics office will publish the December consumer-price inflation data on Jan. 18.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-16/bank-of-england-must-hold-its-nerve-on-inflation-e-y-to-say.html

Friday, January 14, 2011

YOU'VE BEEN PUNKED!!

You were warned about the press sensationalizing what Soros saying about Gold. So now you know what he was DOING.

George Soros’s Biggest Buy is Gold - $64 Million in the Last Quarter
Many of those calling gold a bubble have done so simply on the basis of George Soros’s recent comments regarding gold being the ultimate asset bubble or becoming the ultimate asset bubble. Soros’s comments were somewhat cryptic and had some commentators claim that Soros was saying gold is a bubble and others claiming that Soros was simply saying gold would become the ultimate bubble.

George Soros said subsequently “It’s all a question of where are you in that bubble ... The current conditions of actual deflationary pressures and fear of inflation is pretty ideal for gold to rise.” This would suggest that he is bullish on gold, contrary to much of the media headlines and commentary.

As ever with hedge fund managers and large investors it is important to watch what they do rather than what they say. In the last quarter, Soros's biggest buy wasn't actually a stock. His firm spent $64 million on shares of the iShares Gold Trust (IAU).

When George Soros begins liquidating his gold holdings, it may be an indication that the gold bull market has run its course and it is time to reduce allocations.

Demand for Physical Bullion Sees Silver Eagle Sales Soar and Premiums Rise
This week has seen further confirmation of very robust physical demand internationally and especially in Asia. This was seen in premiums rising to near 2 year highs in Hong Kong and Singapore and reports of shortages of gold kilo bars. The Perth Mint also reported unrelenting demand for gold bullion bars.

The tightness in the bullion market is not confined to Asia. There has been another surge in demand for silver American Eagles as seen in the figures from the US Mint. Zero Hedge reported that Mike Krieger made a disturbing observation on the trend: "In the first 12 days of January 3.4 million silver eagles have been sold. I have never seen anything like this. The amount of physical being taken off the market on this paper sell off is extraordinary. We must be very close to the end."

By “the end” Krieger means the point in time when the physical demand for silver bullion (which is a very small market) is large enough to force some Wall Street banks to close their massive concentrated short positions, thereby creating a short squeeze that propels silver to above its nominal high of 1980 (near $50/oz) to much higher prices.

Further confirmation of growing tightness in bullion markets is seen in the growing premium being paid for British Gold Sovereigns. Sovereigns are one of the most widely traded bullion coins in the world and the price of Sovereigns is correlated with the spot price (see chart above). Lately there has been an interesting development which has seen the spot price of gold fall while the premium paid for Sovereigns has risen (see chart above).

Demand for Sovereigns remains strong especially in the US where investors like the liquidity and smaller size (0.2354 troy oz) of the coins, and in the UK where they are Capital Gains Tax (CGT) free with CGT having recently been increased.

It is too early to tell whether this is a trend that will continue but with the continuing robust demand for Sovereigns it is likely to do so and it is worth keeping an eye on it. The trend strongly suggests that the recent weakness is short-term momentum players and that it is short term tech-driven rather than long term technical and fundamental-driven.

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1295013600.php

and for a change of pace ... some Uranium predictions

http://www.uraniumseek.com/news/UraniumSeek/1294984801.php

YOU ARE IN DEEP CHIT update I

If you think you can play in the big boys house. Now, having said that let's see if the game has changed today........NOPE. I checked to see if POMO has stopped and it didn't so the game is still on. I hope that you have all still been sitting on your cash as advised. I am still at a nice fat cash level to go with my core. If they break and hold the 28.50 level on silver, we could see some nice prices in the next couple of weeks. Don't be a hero and pick the bottom. Let them do the heavy lifting and knock the commod sector to hell. NOW for the other side of this coin. If you aren't in any of these sectors then you can START accumulating slowly a position now in PSLV SSRI EGO GFI PHYS HL SLW. Don't be a hero and get in front of this train here, but if you don't have a core they ARE giving you a chance to start. If you have a core.....relax and see what they've got.

URANIUM...will also correct IF they take the air out of commods. Again start your core now if you don't have one. UEC URZ USU are already in correction mode and if you want to play the whole sector there is the uranium stock etf URA. If you are in already then sit tight for a tell on when this has played out. I like uranium and own it already here. I will add if it takes a hit.

CCME what more can be said after yesterday...I still like the biotech in DCTH OREX ASTM ....watta game gl...

Watch GDX for a touch at the 200dma right now 53.36....I will nibble there.

update I....from Sinclair...The Chinese are going to need their own version of Neo to combat Ben’s printing press; either that or they are going to have to upwardly revalue the yuan at a faster pace – something that the US schemers have no doubt long intended as part of their QE plan. I am sure Chuckie Schumer will be happy as he has been a one note Johnnie when it comes to blaming China for the US economic woes. “it’s all that currency manipulation by China”. Yeah sure – the US monetary authorities are pristinely pure having never even considered manipulating the US markets.

The move lower in gold takes it back down to the lower portion of the trading range that has contained it for most of this month now with important chart support near $1350 serving to hold it for now. There are plenty of bottom pickers active near this level but the key is whether the funds will sit tight or decide to liquidate some of their longs. Should they do so, price will fall to $1345 which is near the 100 day moving average and has been a level which tends to attract buying from those with a longer term investment view. A breach of that level would be much to the bears’ delight as that would set it up for a drop down towards $1325 – $1320. Asia of course would also be delighted as it would become picnic time for them, with the table being set by hedge fund algorithm selling.

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

THURSDAY BEATDOWN update II

Hmmmmmm....maybe if you believe that POMO has been stopped. This market CAN'T go down. Its not POSSIBLE....IS it? Well if you talk to anyone "inside" Wall Street, the answer is no. Well maybe only a pullback but BTFD (buy the fochin dip). Do I buy this? Yes....but only partly. I think this year will be a virtual repeat of last year with a lot of trading opportunities. And like last year I will probably lose money on most of my shorts. With the possible exception of shorting Oil. This MUST be controlled for the illusion that Joe six pack can recover from abject poverty and a major negative net worth to ....tada..........to just poverty and a less negative net worth.

We are talking about one of the most incredible economic miracles ever attempted. A complete liquidity collapse from incredible ammounts of leverage never even heard of before....We have a country that was sold off piece by piece through a series of trade agreements and clever derivative developments that allowed the loss of over 20 million jobs to foreign soil. The only benefactors again were the bankers. Now they are attempting to reinflate with the same leverage and have trickle down economics build up a STRUCTURAL job loss by trying to trick the consumer into believing that the recovery is well underway and with the restoration of CONfidence we can return to the ways of old. ARE YOU KIDDIN ME? YOU ARE REALLY BUYING THIS? hehehe...ok then I say GO FOR IT BEN. If you are seriously going to restore the structural job loss and a broken economy with the printing press and POMO and you think you can control what is coming with it in the form of the sky rocketing prices of essentials AND you can control all of this with an exit policy that you KNOW doesn't exist...then yes GO FOR IT. But we know how this game will end. Keep rearranging the deck chairs Ben. It still aint gonna float any better.

From an investment standpoint I have to take a stab at the reinflation play and right now I think it goes higher this year in the energy sector. I will keep looking at ATPG for trades this year. It has a nice bullish cross and I like the sector. Target price this year is 26. SGY and NBR also are stocks I will play in this sector. SGY target price of 30. NBR target 27. Trade these using shorter term resistance and supports.

Don't forget Uranium. UEC URZ...are core holdings. gl and keep playing in the greatest casino ever.

update I....just thought it would be nice to put a long term chart of the dow in here for you. It sits up nicely for my 2012 breakdown of a "right shoulder" that will form this year.


http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=djia&freq=3&compidx=aaaaa:0&comp=&ma=4&maval=10&uf=8&lf=4&type=4&time=20&style=320&startdate=&enddate=&size=3&lf2=32&lf3=1024

update II.....just a chart ...

http://www.etf-corner.com/markets/2011/01/smh-its-coming-.html

WEDNESDAY'S WINDUP update I

Look for more distribution with fair to partly cloudy skies. All is good in the world of global monetization. The Japanese are now bailing out Portugal and can't get enough of that fine Portugese Bondtang....hmmmhmmm gooood. Well its working isn't it??? For now .....yes. Question is how long can the ragtag fill in the gap monetization game go?
Since I don't have a clue...I suggest you stick with the game plan we originally have discussed. Ben is going to continue to reinflate through monetization (QE)....Have NO DOUBT. So the longer term trade STILL stands and that is Gold and Silver. Some risk equities in certain sectors if you have the stomach to do so makes sense for the larger portfolios or more active traders. For those that read this blog with limited time to do short term trading I suggest the silver miners SSRI SLW HL as small cores here and hope we catch one more 10-15% down with them. I believe we will but I have a nice core in case this 100ma is it.

Gold is also a tweener here. REMEMBER....if you have a nice core of PHYS or EGO, GFI, GORO, ANV then you just need to SIT TIGHT. Don't get cute here...If we get a run to the 200ma then have plenty of cash. Don't throw in everything there but you can make a buy and see how we respond to that level. This is a high stakes game here. There are forces that are trying to break the bankers strangle hold on silver and I think they could play this out right here for a couple of weeks before a higher move up. Inlet watches these cycles and may have input. Joe is very cautious here and is hoping for a hard beat down of all the miners. So we may just get it.

Uranium miners moving very nicely today. But again they need a further beatdown...I just cannot guarantee it...but I believe they will .....gl all and play the game....If you hate the game and many do then just buy your physical PMs gold and silver and piss on the bankers. keep your comments coming we need input.

update I.....get ready..

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-12/gold-imports-by-india-climbs-to-record-as-investors-seek-haven-wgc-says.html?t=CF-OK&pos=2

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

ANOTHER MOVE IN PRECIOUS METALS? update I

GDX bouncing off the 100ma nicely most miners and gold at the bottom of stochastics and oversold on RSI. Could be a fakeout...but this is enough to be encouraged. With the Eurozone troubles ahead with Portugal Spain and Italy on deck maybe one can add to their positions here. I will only nibble some more .

JPM has a short position (or at least someone does) that needs to be covering in silver so this move could be a doozy. Be aware. I have a nice core now and will hope they bring the miners and gold down for one more leg. But that is only a hope. SLW SSRI ANV EGO HL GFI

Uranium miners have had a nice correction and could also be forming a tradable bottom....but I still have my doubts. So I will again hold my core here. No adding here. UEC URRE URZ.

Remember POMO print money is still flowing. That has not changed and until it does this game is not going to end. Will add more to this post later.

updateI.. big move in silver and SSRI Nancy could be right the worm may have turned

http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10964241/1/6-silver-stocks-analysts-like-for-2011.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Monday, January 10, 2011

VIRGINIA GOLD

In what may one day be heralded as the formal proposal that proverbially started it all, the Commonwealth of Virginia introduced House Resolution No. 557 to establish a joint subcommittee to "to study whether the Commonwealth should adopt a currency to serve as an alternative to the currency distributed by the Federal Reserve System in the event of a major breakdown of the Federal Reserve System." In other words, Virginia will study the fallback plan of a "timely adoption of an alternative sound currency that the Commonwealth's government and citizens may employ without delay in the event of the destruction of the Federal Reserve System's currency" and avoid or "at least mitigate many of the economic, social, and political shocks to be expected to arise from hyperinflation, depression, or other economic calamity related to the breakdown of the Federal Reserve System." Most importantly as pertain to the currency in question, "Americans may employ whatever currency they choose to stipulate as the medium for payment of their private debts, including gold or silver, or both, to the exclusion of a currency not redeemable in gold or silver that Congress may have designated 'legal tender'." Whether this resolution will ever get off the ground, and actually find that the world is at great risk should gold not be instituted as a backstop currency, is irrelevant. The mere fact that it is out there, should provide sufficient impetus to other states to consider the ultimate Plan B.

We urge all legislators to carefully read this resolution.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/virginia-creates-subcommittee-study-monetary-alternatives-case-terminal-fed-breakdown-consid

Sunday, January 9, 2011

MONDAY CONFUSION REPORT update I

One day you're gonna wake up on a Monday and wonder what the HELL happened...but not this morning. Certainly things are being shook up overseas in a couple of markets but that doesn't concern us now does it? Well...not yet anyway. Remember we own the printing press that is the world's envy. Yes indeed...the USD....the world's RESERVE.

So what's up today?? ....I suspect more of the same. The ponzi is going to try and take gold and silver down another leg for another couple of weeks and probably let some air out of the stock market to bring in a few more shorts for slaughter. I've written this same essay about ten times over the last 20 months, and its been right. One day I will miss it, but for now I think I like the game. Remember though this is the greatest casino in the world and only the most dispassionate, objective trader will survive.

My guess is the Eurozone will have some problems this week with Portugal and Spain. Some awfully big bond auctions this week and the game is getting closer to the end. I believe we make it through in the near term but not without some choking and puking. One reason the PMs must be held as a "core" is to guard against the unexpected one Monday morning. While I am at it a small EUO (short on the Euro) is not a bad thing to own this year at least for a trade...and right here a small hold is probably a good trade....from the charts it might have a little pop in the Euro left but just add to the small EUO for the trade.

PSLV PHYS are correcting nicely and I have nibbled a little last week. I would like to see 5-10% more but doubt we will see it...but I think with a core you SHOULD be patient and watch for any higher lows to form to trade it. Also SLW ANV correcting nicely as all the miners are now. HL EGO GFI SSRI. So have fun this week....ATPG SGY need another 10%...Kick um good boyz......A gift would be another 20%...

My confusion is not nearly the confusion I am seeing on the faces of the CNBS crowd now days as they continually search for an explanation for the terrible job numbers. Even Steve Leesman is starting to stutter with each new Bernanke explanation of why QE is working. So just be patient and lets BTD...buy the dips....on PMs of course.

update I.....First step to glory....or ...at least ponzi glory...one "earnings story" at a time....

http://seekingalpha.com/article/245831-alcoa-leads-off-with-a-beat?source=dashboard_stocks-sectors

Part 3 - Silver Manipulation Explained

NOW THE RUBBER MEETS THE ROAD

AVNR was one of the biotechs recommended on this site last year and I thought it would be appropriate to review where we stand on it. This is a stock that one needs to have a core of and trade around the core. It has a new drug approval (Neudexta) for traumatic brain injury condition called Psuedobulbar Affect. This is a condition where the effected individual has uncontrolled or innappropriate laughing or crying responses after brain injury. Roughly 1 million people are effected here by this condition. There are "off label" uses that makes the potential of this drug more difficult to calculate and I will not go into these. This is a followup and a reminder to keep some in your portfolio for diversification.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/245611-avanir-pharmaceuticals-poised-for-a-strong-new-drug-launch?source=qp_article

http://seekingalpha.com/article/235329-what-is-avanir-pharmaceuticals-really-worth?source=qp_article

Saturday, January 8, 2011

BEWARE SILVER PLAYERS updateI

Even though I believe we could be in the middle of a multiweek silver and gold correction. I don't see the price much lower than another 5-8% from here. Having said that the miners could easily go another 15-20% from here. This is nothing more than a healthy and WELCOME correction. The bottom last February in the miners was evident when it turned, but this bottom will need to be confirmed by some higher lows for me. Volume is less useful. Now...having said all of this be very careful if you are in this trade and want to lighten your exposure to PMs here. I would NOT and here is why. If you have traded according to the recommendations on this blog...your exposure to silver gold and the miners totally should be only about 40% maximum. Plus you should be holding at least 40% cash. There are some very unusual activity occurring in the Silver bullion trade that warrants grave concern for traders. I always maintain the ponzi can handle virtually any exposures their nefarious traders make but this one verges on danger for them to the point that merits your attention. An enormous ammount of Silver is exiting the Comex...probably to fill the LBMA losses. This cannot go on to infinity so I suspect the paper short positions will begin covering in Silver shortly if I am right. So in short (pardon the pun) hold your PSLV position. JOE hopes SLW sees 25...and I do too. But don't bet on it just hope. GL

http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2011/01/massive-customer-silver-withdrawals-at.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+JessesCafeAmericain+%28Jesse%27s+Caf%C3%A9+Am%C3%A9ricain%29

update I ...

http://seekingalpha.com/article/245494-just-one-stock-the-gold-explorer-looking-for-west-africa-in-nevada?source=hp_wc&wc_num=1

Friday, January 7, 2011

ITS JOBS STUPID!!!!!

Unfortunately if its a "Great number" it is meaningless. Trillions of liquidity and we are talking about numbers in the the range of 160K ...SO WHAT?? Big deal. Do you realize the number needs to be in the 400K range just to START a good beginning recovery. The longer we wallow in this current range the more trapped we become. Hoping that things get better and expecting a meaningful structural job improvement are two completely different animals. I fully expect a good print of numbers this year. But here is the problem. Underneath the ocean of jobless souls are massive uncounted people that have fallen off the unemployment rolls and when this economy shows a heartbeat they are going to come flooding back onto the jobless numbers and we will show an actual higher print on unemployment....going into the double digits.

Most importantly are we going to get a structural recovery in jobs that we can build and sustain. There is nothing on the horizon that I see saying we will. Now we have the Boehner controlled House in to throw even more confusion into the Ponzi pump. They will create some proplems for the kumbaya scenario, but it will only be noise. More meaningful will be the Ron Paul grilling of Bernanke. Eventually that will be more noise than substance as well.

Gold and Silver are recieving a morning beatdown. What a complete joke. Oil is rising...RISING. The ponzi feels its more vital to protect their short positions on the PMs than protect a mortally wounded consumer from the input prices of higher oil. That is how absolutely corrupt and devious these guys are.....Sorry but you just have to love it. Its so diabolical and predictable that I just have to laugh. This market is WAY overbought and any positive response to the jobs number by the market will probably be faded. Everybody is bullish now. Miners and commods are still in a takedown....so be carefull nibbling here. My portfolio is a little wounded from yesterday. Never fear though if you have cash a chance to buy some of these jewels with a nice 200ma touch may be coming. Gotta love the game..gl

Thursday, January 6, 2011

WHAT'S THE CHANCE IT WORKS? update I

Could it be possible to pull off the greatest high wire economic act ever by the Great Bendini... Could this be the trick of all tricks managed by the greatest power the world has ever known...or in the case of 90% of the public....not known? Well lets examine a few facts to see if this could pass mustard. Right now at this very moment we are underwater in this country 14.3 Trillion. That doesn't count the unfunded mandates which push it up to around 100 Trillion give or take about ten Trillion. Add on top of that the crippling derivative loss that they refuse to take on the bank's balance sheets....maybe another 70 Trillion and you have a bit of a problem with the math. FIRST the 14.3 Trillion is 90% of the current GDP of this country. Hmmmmmmm maybe I am slow but with the continued budget deficits where is the sustainability of this alone. Is it really possible to "grow" the economy and GDP and maintain a long term interest rates at 2-4%. Again that interest rate with moderate growth of 4% is just not sustainable. With the priming of the pump to the tune of several Trillion an avalanche of inflation will be released. Before that hits the warning of a severe stagflation will wreak havoc on an already beleaguered public. It just isn't that simple to become the greatest high wire act ever.

Now having chastised our miracle worker may seem unfair, but I submit to you a more nefarious motive. This is all "baked in the cake". The outcome is already known and calculated. We are in a process that appears to be a desperate "hail mary" move to save the state, when in fact the state is hopelessly terminal. The condition is only on life support to allow the very banks and bankers that created this disaster to fatten themselves up on the remaining blood of an already mortally wounded system.Then let the system completely collapse....with the surviving parasitic big banks strong and fat ready to consume the weakened finacial system that wasn't fattened up by Bendini. Diabolical isn't it??? It is so evil that the trusting, believing , sheeple just can't fathom such an act being conceived by anyone. Its size and scope is beyond the comprehension of the average sheeple. That is why it is so ingenious. I love it. You have to hand it to them. Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me. How about fooling me 3,4, 5, 6, 7, etc etc....hehehe. No it couldn't be could it???

Back to our purpose. Trying to play the game. More liquidity....no stopping it this year. Continued statistical manipulation.... Making lemonade out of lemons. That means Uranium, gold, silver, energy, and the biotechs for speculation.

I maintain that they can take the miners to the 200ma and possibly the PMs also...but they are showing signs of losing their grip on their beatdown of silver...the next move on silver will be significant... if you don't have a core, now is the time to start your core.

This is looming on the horizon and its going to be the next driver of gold even if we get a USD move up...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/spanish-belgian-cds-hit-record-wides-even-china-announces-plansto-buy-%E2%82%AC18-billion-spanish-gr?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

update I http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-brief-history-silver-manipulation?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

updateII not new news..but I like....here a little ..

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/12/22/the-top-10-gold-and-silver-stocks-for-2011.aspx

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

THE PONZI LIVES!! update I

Rejoice and prepare. We are still in the game. The markets are open thanks to the "mother of all liquidity" pumps. The attack on the cabal's silver short through JPM has been successfully repulsed and the collapse of the ponzi has been greatly exaggerated so party on Garth. I predict today will be sunny with a chance of showers in the afternoon.

Nancy asked yesterday about buying some gold or silver on the dip. My answer may not have been clear so I will clarify. On this last pullback in the PMs I have advocated rebuilding your core as I have done. This should amount to roughly 40% of your portfolio in a mixture of PHYS PSLV SSRI EGO GFI ANV SLW HL etc...etc.. some of the etc can be CLDX DCTH OREX TBT EUO and of course my favs the uranium miners (not too heavy)...I still like almost 50% exposure to cash here....I play some shorts but prefer not to talk about them...hehehe

All of us need to recognize the game is to FORCE you out of savings and into risk. I'll play the game but very carefully. The bigger game is the debasement of your currency and the ultimate changes the lack of confidence in our markets and our institutions this ponzi has wrought. gl today players...please keep your comments coming.

update I...Nancy this is very troublesome.....get in PSLV

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/1/5_John_Embry_-_Gold_Over_$2,000,_Silver_Above_$50_in_2011.html

Monday, January 3, 2011

TUESDAY STORM CLOUDS BREWING update I

The ill winds of POMO continue to blow across the world landscape. The Bernanke Kamikazee run of monetary insanity threatens every developing world's economy as we export the one thing left we have.......INFLATION. The ill winds of economic suicide threaten the stability of every developing country as the people begin receiving a sunami of price increases on their essentials. Many of these countries such as China and India have very marginal middle classes that are on the margin of survival and will not tolerate 100% increases in the prices of essentials this year. Their governments know this and will be taking steps quickly to stem this cancer. I suspect that by late this year China will be forced to accelerate their rate increases much more than they want to OR they will institute Price controls and trade wars.

Europe is going to have their own battles to sustain their debt burden as their PIIGS begin their second round of debt restructuring. I like to compare this to a bloated 40 y/o man just swimming across the Mississippi River....being congratulated and then told he must turn around and swim back across. There is no way he can do it and there is no way Europe can make this happen without default. They can prolong it maybe ....maybe for a year but that is really a stretch. It doesn't matter from an investment point of view. When Spain and Italy step up to the trough this year....the wheels of the ponzi are going to feel an incredible weight. Germany is going to start cracking from every weak link in its armor trying to carry the Eurozone through those behemoths. It should be an absolute HOOT to see how the banks and the media play this.

Remember though....even though the economy may have some signals that its recovering somewhat during the next couple of quarters from the massive liquidity being created. It is ultimately CONfidence that will provide an increase in the velocity of money. THAT is a much trickier obstacle to overcome. They completely mangled the confidence game in 2007-2008 when they repeated lied in the media with a continual mantra that EVERYTHING was going to be OK. I maintain to this day that just levelling with the public and creating true transparency could have made the outcome of this only a few years with true reform and a return to a real market economy. Now you have only a ponzi to rely on and I think the smart money has NO trust in it providing the necessary leadership to get us through a true crisis like we are in now.

So be prepared for some fireworks this year as the last deperate attempts to pump up the overleveraged and structurally destroyed U.S. economy tries to regain its dominance and maintain its only advantage in its last run to glory.......the status of the USD as the World's Reserve Currency. It's quite a battle, but like Great Britains loss of the title in the 70's as the World's Reserve Currency...so shall we.......UNLESS...there is a world wide deflationary collapse in 2012. Stay tuned.

Be patient...we need a correction to be buying...hold your core of SSRI PSLV ANV PHYS SLW...Add on pullbacks.......love uranium. UEC USU ....

DCTH and OREX look strong now...gl gang

update I....hope you were holding ATPG

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/feds-clear-way-for-some-deepwater-drilling-2011-01-04?siteid=yhoof

DON'T FORGET SILVER

With all the recent pumping I have given Uranium it might seem like I have lost interest in Silver. NO WAY. Do not forget there is twice as much gold bullion in the world compared to silver bullion. Silver is 1/40 as expensive as gold. Don't forget silver has a commercial use and is being consumed as a conductor like mad in the high tech fields. Silver's ratio to gold historically should be at 1/16. We have the obvious manipulation of its price by the central bank short position that may be breaking down also. Will it? Probably not in the near term but covering will continue this year. So expect continued upward pressure on Silver.

HL SSRI SLW EXK give you a miners hold. PSLV for the silver bullion "paper" hold.

Back to the crystal ball. Upward pressure with a similar trading pattern to last year as they try to pump some blood back into the CONfidence equation of this economy through raising the number on the markets. Just think of the absurdity of it all. Structural collapse of a country and they are saving the biggest banks that destroyed us over the last twenty years. What a bunch of skunks these politicians are. Thirty years of malinvestment as greed became the driving force for public policy. Now we have completely lost control of the government. An oligarchy is now making all policy decisions. You as an investor must recognize this. That is one reason I will play Uranium this year. It's carbon footprint is not a pretty one due to its heavy mining carbon cost, but the PTB convince you that it is an efficient "clean" fuel. It is cleaner than burning hydrocarbons in the air of course at the site of the reactor...but it does have environmental costs. The reason I like it here is that a meter can be put on it for the PTB. It gives them a chance to squeeze us a little more. Don't for get that many developing and developed countries know they have to get off the oil train (not us of course). They are currently planning a massive expansion of nuclear plants across many countries...including China, India, South Korea, France etc. so PREPARE..... Uranium is going much higher this year.

UEC URZ USU

Another play that I entered recently that you may want to look at is EUO ....shorting the euro. Nice play this year as the Eurozone breaks apart like the cheap crystal it is. When the debt of Spain and Italy hit them it will be one convulsing pile of chit. The GDP of Spain is massive compared to Greece and Ireland.

EUO...trade it as a swing....GL and ride the BULLLLLshit.

Sunday, January 2, 2011

COLLISION COURSE

One of the most cogent videos to date on the next few years the insane course of fiscal and monetary policy we have chosen. Make no mistake this will be the highest probability unless a complete deflationary collapse takes place in 2012. These numbers are unsustainable. The outcome of this policy of America is an empire collapse. My timetable is not the same as Ferguson's because I believe an engineered collapse in 2012 will occur. That will save the dollar for the time being as the world's reserve currency. I recommend you listen to the entire video and especially the Q/A at the end. Just amazing.

http://fora.tv/2010/07/28/Niall_Ferguson_Empires_on_the_Edge_of_Chaos#fullprogram

Saturday, January 1, 2011

BREAKING POINT!!

As the mad hatter Ben Benyanke continues to load the inflation cannon with more powder to stave off the looming true deflationary washout event, the debate one endures daily is can he be successful. The simple answer is NO. The more complex and complete answer involves what form will failure come in. Will it be clothed in the a cold weather coat of true overwhelming collapse and total default of our debt with a deflationary supercycle K-wave winter in 2012 as many (including me) have predicted OR will we have a less clear or more twisted road to collapse.

I want to analyze the path to this K-wave collapse. What do we know as facts? Certainly we know that there is a committment by Ben and O to avoid a deflationary collapse at any cost. Ben has told you and SHOWN you that he will print money until he has exhausted this monetary tool. That is VERY CLEAR. We have NO LIMIT according to our FED. From the fiscal side it is very clear that the current administration JUST AS the previous so-called Republican administration will run our debt into infinity if allowed. So who is going to stop them? The republican controlled House. HA! When push comes to shove they are going to do exactly what the Bankers tell them to do. Of course they will whine and cry foul but just watch...they will ultimately not do ANYTHING of importance to affect the deficit. Window dressing yes....substantial fiscal changes like cutting the Military spending segment of the budget NO. Social security...Medicare spending.. ALL are political suicide....

So let us conclude that spending and money printing will continue essentially unabated throughout the coming year. Here is the tricky part. We are now beginning to import inflation. Just look around you. Oil is over $90/bb...this is a staggering number in an economy that is teetering on the edge of a cliff. This number will begin to affect input costs in all sectors of our economy. It already is having a profound effect, and its just started. A bruised and bleeding consumer will begin cutting back on spending in all sectors that are not essentials(such as extra sweaters and shoes and new cars and new fridges) So you can expect an effect in the MARGINS in these durable goods sectors and retail clothing etc. BUT GUESS WHAT? the overall spending numbers will show signs of improvement over the next few months due to the rising cost basis......WICKED ISN'T IT??? So if you are expecting negative durable goods numbers and GDP numbers initially ....FORGET IT. That will come much later.

Here is where it gets evil........REALLY EVIL. As our well healed politicians cry foul, most Americans are going to get KILLED by the cost of essentials. Jobs will become even more scarce as employers HAVE to cut labor costs to compete with pricing. The dollar must and WILL be devalued as an effort to keep up our illusion. All fiat currencies will go into a competitive frenzy of devaluation. (keep that gold and silver). Once that stagflation devil-genie is out of the bottle....YOU CANNOT PUT IT BACK IN. This is something that is guaranteed. There is ONLY one way and that is higher interest rates...MUCH HIGHER RATES...true bond vigilante and central bank stuff. WILL NOT HAPPEN!! At least not this year. We are in for a nasty dose of stagflation this year...and possibly into much of next year. Once it begins in earnest and I believe it has now, it will accelrate. By late this year we will be in severe pain from many input cost effects that will feed into a CYCLE OF DEATH for Joe sixpack and the American dream. If you don't like what I just said...I don't blame you, but its as clear as the blue sky. I will still play the supercycle bull market in commods this year and silver and gold. Call me silly but that is the game as I see it. They want mom n pop out of their safe assets and into risk assets. Heheheheheh aint ita scam. YOU MAY ASK...How do they maintain the CPI with stagflation and input prices coming into the equation?? This is the devious part....HOUSING PRICES!!! Their struggle with declinining housing prices will keep CPI in check this year...housing prices are 40% of the CPI....aint it grand.. THEY DONT WANT YOU TO SAVE...THEY WANT to RAISE THE VELOCITY OF MONEY...This is analagous to an economic kamikazee run....doomed to failure. GL and have a happy new year.