Saturday, April 30, 2011

WALL STREETS PATRON SAINT

He was born Carlo Pietro Giovanni Guglielmo Tebaldo Ponzi in Lugo, Italy in 1882. A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investment operation that pays returns to separate investors, not from any actual profit earned by the organization, but from their own money or money paid by subsequent investors. The Ponzi scheme usually entices new investors by offering returns other investments cannot guarantee, in the form of short-term returns that are either abnormally high or unusually consistent. The perpetuation of the returns that a Ponzi scheme advertises and pays requires an ever-increasing flow of money from investors to keep the scheme going.

The system is destined to collapse because the earnings, if any, are less than the payments to investors. Usually, the scheme is interrupted by legal authorities before it collapses because a Ponzi scheme is suspected or because the promoter is selling unregistered securities. As more investors become involved, the likelihood of the scheme coming to the attention of authorities increases. While the system eventually will collapse under its own weight, the example of Bernard Madoff's investment scandal demonstrates the ability of a Ponzi scheme to delude both individual and institutional investors as well as securities authorities for long periods: Madoff's variant of the Ponzi scheme stands as the largest financial investor fraud committed by a single person in history. Prosecutors estimate losses at Madoff's hand totaling roughly $21 billion, as estimated by the money invested by his victims. If the promised returns are added, the losses amount to $64.8 billion, but a New York court dismissed this estimation method during the Madoff trial.

The scheme is named after Charles Ponzi[1] who became notorious for using the technique in early 1920. Ponzi did not invent the scheme (for example Charles Dickens' 1857 novel Little Dorrit described such a scheme decades before Ponzi was born), but his operation took in so much money that it was the first to become known throughout the United States. Ponzi's original scheme was based on the arbitrage of international reply coupons for postage stamps; however, he soon diverted investors' money to support payments to earlier investors and himself.

Knowingly entering a Ponzi scheme, even at the last round of the scheme, can be rational economically if there is a reasonable expectation that government or other person or organisation will bail out those participating in the scheme.[2]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi_scheme

Friday, April 29, 2011

THE NEW INSANITY

Black is white. Up is down. Peace is war. Freedom is torture. Truth is lying.

These are the principles that now form the framework of this country and its inhabitants. Just like all of the countries around the world that are having breakdowns within their autocratic, theocratic, plutocratic, corporocratic, god forsaken pieces of shit excuses for a government ..........so have we begun our journey into oblivion.

Another day in a stock market that presides over a dying and decaying economy pretending to represent the hope that a debt mired, structurally paralyzed nation can somehow wallow in one last bolt of monetary adrenaline and rise up to resume a march to glory. Somehow hiring and putting eight million people back to work in god knows what kind of jobs that will pay a wage that will allow the family to pay for still over priced homes that are being propped up by a myriad of psuedo mortgages fluffed by ZIRP and sustained by hope. These eight million new jobs over the next couple of years will allow us to stabilize prices of exploding basic foods as we begin the arduous task of purchasing our own debt bonds with the new found growing economic juggernaut.

Not only do we take over our debt problems and strengthen our dollar as interest rates rise but we sustain the burdeoning demographic weight of an ever growing older population of baby boomers requiring even more expensive medical and social resources.

But not to be outdone by these strains we decide that indeed we are the greatest empire in the world and our psuedo patriotic debt slavery to the military industrial complex allows us to expand even further our 800 military bases in 125 countries. Which of course is absolutely necessary because "they" hate us for our freedom. Which of course means to protect that freedom we create even more wars halfway around the world against even more sovereign governments and peoples that happen to have oil. If we couldn't create wars for oil then it will be wars for something else....maybe water. It will not stop. It is written.

Now like all the Byzantine powers in history this too shall pass. It may seem like an eternity to the millions of people suffering from the abuse of power but then you only need to look into the passage of history for your answer how nature ultimately deals with all human evils.

Don't worry about the market. Its only a game. Pay attention to what is important in your life. The pain and suffering of the poor people in the South after nature showed you her power deserves your attention, thoughts, and prayers. They are real. They aren't a ticker tape of Bullshit that is created to delude you into believing this country has bright future. They will surely be superceded by a contrived wealth in decadence event in London that will verify that you too can fly with Pixie Dust one day. The masses must have their make believe.

After all this is about survival. Who's survival? Now that should be obvious. This sand is slowly spilling into the sea of lies that compose this country. When nature's hour glass of sand is empty then we will no longer have this game. Make your plans and recognize there is only one thing that we are guaranteed in life. Even the PTB cannot escape that guarantee. gl

Today I'm betting on black.

Thursday, April 28, 2011

WARREN WARREN... DID YOU FIB??

Tell me it ain't so. Tell me the Oracle of Omaha, Purveyor of Truth, isn't a lying scumbag. I believed him in early 2008 when he told me after Bear Sterns went under that the market was the greatest place in the world to invest. I believed him when he told me time and time again that our banks were the best in the world. I believed Warren when he came in right as the market was tanking into oblivion one half hour before the close and announced he was investing in Goldman Sachs to the tune of 5 Billion of his precious Berkshire investor's money. I knew that he had decided to do this because it was a swell deal and that he knew their true value. After all this was Warren Buffett.

He wasn't some sinister, evil-eyed bankster with disconcerting twitches and push of speech. He looked you right in the eye and smiled and said ahh shucks. He drank Cokes and ate cheeseburgers. Those rumors about him keeping a girlfriend in an apartment in Omaha for years were cheap shots about his character. He was Warren Buffett the Oracle of Omaha. He lived in Middle America and drove interviewers around in his own car in town. Well.... it was Becky Quicky from CNBS but heck fire ....I know he wasn't givin' her the "evil" eye behind those glasses. He was Warren Buffett the Oracle of Omaha.

I knew that CNBS would bring him on during tough times because he was the most trustworthy man in the world to ask if everything was going to be OK. After all he was Warren Buffett the Richest Man in the WORLD and would never lie. His dad was a pharmacist just like a normal dad.

Mr. Buffett would even let reporters travel with him in his corporate jet when he went overseas. Well......only Becky Quicky....but that was good....it was access...to Mr. Buffett that is. Becky knew he admired her for her mind. He would never be a salacious dirty minded bastard. He was Warren Buffett....Oracle of Omaha.

OK that's enough of that. I wanna know what's this crap about this no good for nothin' Sokol guy. What kinda name is Sokol? Is that Russian? Is he a Socialist? I bet he is. Now he is claiming Mr. Buffett gave him a good ol fashioned reamin'. I'm not buyin' it. That's Mr. Buffett he's talkin' about and that Sokol guy is a banker and Mr. Buffett is an Oracle. Mr. Buffett doesn't lie and he doesn't leer. Well maybe at Becky but that's doesn't count. Who wouldn't? Even a cadaver like Warren is entitled to perk up with that!

You just wait. You'll see. Sokol will be sorry that he ever accused Mr. Buffet of trying to throw him under the bus.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/and-so-billionaires-turn-each-other-sokols-lawyer-accuses-buffett-lying?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

Mr. Bernanke doesn't lie either and yesterday he told us we have eight more weeks of free money to fluff the casino for us. That means the trade on gold and silver is a green light special so rip the dips. Miners like SLW, GPL, EGO GFI are not overbought yet. Energy plays in HNR, WPRT LNG GPXR.....all still due for some more pump.

ANIK took a two day beatdown.....hmmmmm

ZLCS looks tough and the rest of the bios we play in the comments will be duly noted....biotechs are still the trade.

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

TODAY'S DOG AND PONY SHOW

What does the Fed eventually have to do? Raise interst rates. That's right......they do.....someday. Will it be today? Unlikely. Would that change any of my outlook for the Market or the PMs if they did raise today? Nope. Wait...one caveate, if they raised rates 1.00 basis points and announced absolutely no further monetary stimulus whatsoever then I would change my mind. But guess what that is NOT going to happen today. In fact not today and not in the twelve months.

Today may yield a "possible change in direction coming with interest rates". They may even go so far a to announce a rate increase will begin before the end of the year. This is unlikely to have much effect on the market long term but it may be vague enough to roil commods today. Personally I think a surprise 25 basis point raise today would be very effective for knocking the legs (short term) out of the commods and PMs but its not likely. Of course his press conference after the FOMC announcement could signal something just like that is going to happen. If there were a rate increase it would change NOTHING with the prospects of further QE whether its announced or surrepticious. They will have to continue to fund the debt......PERIOD!! This is one grand scheme called a PONZI. Then last thirty years in particular were a liquidity Ponzi that with the out of control derivatives growth in the last decade (and now) became a Nightmare on Wall Street Event. Now we are in the phase of unwinding it and its not going to be pleasant.

I watched a show on Bravo last night about Concierges for expectant mothers in New York City. Just an absolute pathetic disaster. None of the expectant mothers cooked......worse they didn't even know how or where the pots and pans were in their own kitchens. Both husbands worked on Wall Street and were just as clueless. The show was about a woman that is hired to INSTRUCT THESE CLUELESS PARASITES on how to take care of their own damn babies. We are so foched.

If the Fed announcement tanks PMs then I'll be buying some. No effect on the biotechs from this announcement today so they remain their own game for now. Also if HNR WPRT SGY get their teeth kicked in I'm nibbling. I doubt a lot happens but the HUI is getting warmer for the miner's buy. If you have your core HOLD ON.

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

SILVER IS IN A BUBBLE

Send this to all of your contacts as quickly as possible and make sure they sell their physical silver. We need to bring this monster down fast. A good investor never likes to see their investment vehicle run away from them and I'm no different. My advice is sell and sell fast. Sell at least enough that I can get back into the trade.

Let me try to convince you. In 1980 Paul Volker stepped in to an economy that had runaway stagflation and developing inflation with many people predicting that the end was inevitable. Back in those days we had a manufacturing base in this country and still exported and enormous ammount of manufactured goods. We had strong employment and Volker stepped in and started raising interest rates. At first the rates had NO effect and the price changes in goods continued at an alarming rate. Within a few months rates had climbed to almost 20%. Could you imagine in this economy if Bernanke increased rates to 2%. You would probably have a complete collapse....but just humor me and listen to my plea. If Ben steps up to the plate and defends the dollar with an interest rate hike and withdrawal of QE on Wednesday I believe that the stock market will be able to advance on its own.....at least for a couple of milliseconds. Without POMO you can expect the market to continue it inexorable upward climb to glory. After all the economy is on a strong road to recovery. We've been told that over and over now for two years. Just like we were told in 07 and 08 there was no crisis.

Don't believe me......here is another "silver expert" trotted out to extoll the silver bubble... http://www.zerohedge.com/article/physical-silver-investors-are-being-hoodwinked-futures-market

The "threat" of these precious metals to the Central Banks is obvious. Fiat depends upon confidence that it will represent some value in the future. It is becoming very obvious to hundreds of millions of investors around the world that there is a desperate problem within the debt structure of many developed countries as they lose fiscal control of their governments and economies. Monetization is throwing gasoline on the fires of fearful investors and sovereign counterparties. Butressing fortunes with gold and silver is not rocket science in such an environment.

As these issues continue to spiral out of control you can expect some inventive (and not so inventive) measures to be taken to preserve the market system. I love to trade the market but the clock is ticking on our past-time. You know the drill. GL

Monday, April 25, 2011

WATTA NICE DAY FOR A WEDDING DAY

Just preparing for the excitement of the Royal Wedding. After all this marks a very important event for us. This is a Commoner being chosen or allowed depending on your point of view to marry a "Royal". The kind of stuff Dreams are Made of....or as I prefer to put it.....Total Bullshit. Of course if you wear one of my tinfoil hats. Then you may want to look a little deeper and ask yourself....WHY IN THE HELL WOULD THE MSM SPEND ALL OF THIS TIME HYPING THIS CRAP?? Do they expect an advanced society with the attention span of a knat to give two shits about these dysfunctional inbred royals. Hmmmm....short answer......yes.

As long as the attention of the masses can be diverted then I guess it serves a useful purpose. Letting the masses realize the royalty can bend over an give a lift to a commoner may serve to show the masses that priviledge can help the "little people". I know I feel better....;-)

The weather pattern for the markets continue to look cloudy. No definitive pattern is visible here and I don't want to play other than short trades in some of the energy plays like HNR WPRT SGY ......

If you are still in PSLV here then I congratulate you and wish you the best ... I'm not and I wish I were........but don't tempt the PTB.....

The miners look interesting here for small, quick trades....GFI...EGO....SLW...but caution is advised...

A little VXX might be worth a look and a position in EUO may be considered.

If I seem less than enthusiastic right here ......I am. This run was spectacular.....especially in my silver plays and I am protecting profits. If you have to roll the dice then my suggestions are to be used as only small plays. This week is going to show us some direction I have a feeling.......Patience.

Sunday, April 24, 2011

2011.... THE TERMINAL HIGH

After two years of issuing “sell” ratings on equities and making bearish pronouncements on the year-ahead economic outlook, Wall Street has finally turned bullish again. Recent analyst polls reveal the consensus outlook for 2011 is for another year of double-digit stock market gains. Even stalwart bears are starting to sound a more optimistic note on the prospects for continued economic recovery in 2011 and beyond.
One analyst who doesn’t share this newfound optimism is far from the conventional Wall Street type. He correctly predicted the 2008 credit crash and also turned bullish in March 2009 following the crisis low. He has made a career of going against the consensus and he’s once again staking his reputation against the Wall Street establishment. He believes that far from being the dawn of a bullish economy, 2011 will witness the end of the post-credit crisis economic recovery. He also believes 2011 will witness a “crisis high” in the stock market and most likely a turning point within the context of the long-term cycles. That analyst is none other than Samuel “Bud” Kress of the SineScope advisory (SJK Capital, 15 Phoenix Ave., Morristown, NJ 07960). His tenth and latest Special Edition is aptly titled, “Crisis High 2011-2014.”
In the more than 10 years that Kress has been writing his Special Editions we’ve seen the long-term sequence of yearly cycles which bear his name unfold according to schedule. We saw the Kress 12-year cycle bottom hard in 2002, producing a major bear market low. We saw the 10-year cycle bottom in 2004, producing a mini-cyclical bear market and another leg of the bull market following its bottom. We saw the 6-year cycle descend into 2008, adding downside impetus to the credit crisis and producing another cyclical bull market in 2009. This year’s notable cycle event is the peaking of the 6-year cycle, which takes on special significance since the 6-year cycle is the last of the major yearly cycles to be in the ascending phase. Once the 6-year peaks later this year, each one of the Kress yearly cycles (with the exception of the 4-year) will be in the final “hard down” phase until late 2014.
Until the 6-year cycle peaks, the next few months are likely to witness the transfer of wealth from the insiders to the outsiders. Private equity groups, for instance, will be looking to offload debt via the IPO market. Institutional traders who bought stocks around the lows of the last bear market in late 2008/early 2009 will be looking to sell to the public, which is only just beginning to return to the equities market after spending the last two years in low-yielding bond funds. Such tactics are always employed in critical years when the major yearly cycles are peaking and 2011 should prove to be no exception.
Kress sees 2011 as being the last year of the financial recovery that began in March 2009. He uses the metaphor of a storm to describe the 2008 credit crash and believes the financial storm of that year arrived beginning with the “leading edge,” which gave way in 2009 to the benign “eye of the storm.” As with a hurricane, the storm’s “eye” isn’t the end of the storm; rather it’s merely a temporary respite as the storm’s “trailing edge” follows at some point. Kress believes the “trailing edge” of the financial storm will begin by next year and he says it could be a tsunami.
In section two of the latest Special Edition, Kress provides an in-depth look at the major yearly cycles which comprise the 120-year Grand Super Cycle scheduled to bottom in 2014. When analyzing the impact of the yearly cycles it’s important to keep in mind that the final 12% of the duration of any cycle is the “hard down” phase. The 120-year cycle’s hard down phase began 14 years prior from 2014, which was 2000. This says Kress, “was the peak of the nation’s economic expansion, the beginning of economic winter, and the terminal high.”
The 120-year cycle includes two 60-year cycles, which also answers to the economic long wave (also known as the Kondratieff Wave, or K Wave). The K Wave tracks the four economic phases of the credit cycle from boom to bust. Applying the 12% “hard down” rule of thumb, 7 ¼ years retroactive from the scheduled 2014 Grand Super Cycle bottom is mid-2007. “This period began the ‘hard down’ phase of economic winter prior to the ‘credit crash’ and the beginning of deflation,” writes Kress. “Of greater significance,” he adds, “the current 60-year [cycle] is the fourth which completes the series which began with the first 120-year which transformed America into an independent country as we know it today.” The inference here is that when the current 120-year/60-year cycles bottom in 2014, the United States will experience a revolutionary transformation, of which Kress has more to say elsewhere in the report.

http://www.ob-research.com/Crisis_High_2011

Saturday, April 23, 2011

SCOTTY...WE NEED MORE POWER!! update I

Inevitably it had to happen. Of course its over the weekend which make its effects somewhat lessened, but nevertheless it is not what a ponzi wants to hear. What are we talking about the "DEVASTATING" NYT poll showing that American's are not buying the restoring the CONfidence in our equity market by the PTB. A poll that shows beyond a shadow of a doubt that the last 2 years of the well orchestrated effort of the Federal Reserve in cooperation with Treasury, the Administration, the MSM, Wall Street, the Fortune 100, and the Acme Portable Toilet Company have failed in their effort to convince the American Peeps that all is getting better. The sheep just couldn't feel the love as much as the PTB tried to convince them. I guess when they had those high level White House meetings in late 2008 and early 2009 discussing how the "Grande Illusione" would play out that surely they would have expected the "possiblility" that the STRUCTURAL problems underlying the economic collapse JUST MIGHT NOT respond to a monetary massage ploy. I am relatively certain that Paul Volker blew at least one of his gaskets in his six foot nine frame. I can still visualizing the meetings where he would slowly rise from his seat at "the table" ....towering above the participants....then looking slowly around the table and finally fixing his gaze on Bernanke and uttering "have you no shame you dirty bastards?". Obviously outgunned Volker knew he was dealt a losing hand and like any good Central Banker he knew the game but for whatever reason he had been deluded into thinking they were interested in hearing what he said. Of course they were not and the only reason he was there at all was to provide a smoke screen for the real strategy that had already been decided on long before those "heady" meetings in late 2008 and early 2009. Those meetings were for public consumption and for the President's benefit. They were only window dressing for decisions that had been made long before. As far as I know the President may have still thought at that time that he was actually in charge. I know he had a confident smile during those early camera appearances.

Now what about today? What about the new NYT poll. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/22/us/22poll.html?_r=2&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha2 These are inflection points that cannot be ignored. Gas is absolutely killing the American sheep. Not only the gas but many input food costs are becoming very painful. There is now an approaching "recognition" that things are really not good at all. That within the context of the constant mantra of meaningless manipulated statistics telling you things are getting better is a more insidious (and odius) problem. Underneath all of the pomp and circumstance that is being thrown the peep's way is one underlying ugly pig that someone is trying to put lipstick on.

Seriously though.....don't fall for it. The release of the NYT poll could and probably is all part of coordinated and "expected" move to take down the market and strengthen the dollar. It may very well signal the high water mark in this trade and is not only expected but "planned". The PTB know very well that monetary policy will not repair their structural problems here. In fact the monetizatiion is not supposed to. Its only there for the biggest banks and THEIR balance sheets. Their part of the bargain in those early meetings was to "bring up the equity markets". Of course the President was not happy when they plastered those massive bonuses on the company pad but WTF was he going to do about it. After all he was the one that smiled at the conclusion of all of their plans and turned to Lloyd and said "You're doing God's work Lloyd." gl all and happy bunny day.

update I We . . . must avoid the impulse to live only for today, plundering for our own ease and convenience the precious resources of tomorrow. We cannot mortgage the material assets of our grandchildren without risking the loss also of their political and spiritual heritage. We want democracy to survive for all generations to come, not to become the insolvent phantom of tomorrow. Dwight D. Eisenhower

"I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.." -- Wimpy J Wellington

Friday, April 22, 2011

JOHN ENSIGN RESIGNS

SHOCKING!! Erstwhile Nevada Senator John Ensign announces he will resign effective immediately. Even though he had previously announced that he would not seek another term he felt compelled to step down from his prestigious office now. Of course there was speculation that somehow it was tied to the fact that he was facing a nasty hearing by the ethics comittee on charges stemming from shoplifting, fraud, bank robbery, pediphile allegations, rape, sodomy, and murder allegations. Of course these charges seemed somewhat unusual for a Senator but perhaps the shoplifting charge could have been dropped.

Others (not the MSM) had speculated that Ensign had resigned as part of a broader deal that had been made with our outstanding Justice Department. He had just received assurance that the Justice Department had investigated the actual charges against him and he was NOT GOING TO BE PROSECUTED. Translated for the rest of the world that means he can resign without going to jail. Of course he must never reveal the information that he has regarding the organized crime family he was a soldier for. NO ...not the Giancano Las Vegas family but the United States Senate crime family. We're talking the big boys here not some two bit mafioso bunch. These boys are part of a much larger outfit that has armies behind it and navies and marines. They can have your ass put in a prison in solitary confinement and not even charge you. They don't need no stinkin laws..... They are the law. I guess Ensign was just a little tooo out of control for the dons... gl




Thursday, April 21, 2011

SILVER KEEPS EXPLODING

Leaving behind all of the traders that thought it would correct after its fantastic run to 40 (me)....but that's how the game is played. I said it could run when I closed my last positions out and am not that surprised. What makes me crazy is the manipulation of the miners. There is a method to their madness and SLW is making a great trading vehicle so I don't mind actually. EVERYBODY is talking 50 on silver so you know what that means....but we are getting awfully close. My satisfaction is in owning the physical. I didn't miss holding one single oz of silver or gold during this run. Funny how I don't trade out of my physical on these runs.

Energy.....watta move on Oil. Do you really think this economy can recover at this level of oil? This is one of the most incredible messes ever concocted by our market masters. Do I see the method to their madness??? NO...but then it become more apparent soon. There are some bizarre currency movements as the dollar extends its downward slide with the Euro reaching ridiculous heights. Some people believe this is a prelude to a coming storm that the ponzi masters are aware of and trying to position themselves for. It could be a doozy of an event with some strong dollar strengthening.....I'd like to see the USD get pushed to 71....but ya can't count on it.

Biotechs have remained nice daytrades....but just can't catch any big channel moves...very disappointing.

POMO extends into June. They can run this market to over 1400 for a headline. Its all about round numbers and the public's confidence. The vix is being crushed and without volatility the floor traders are being destroyed but that is no longer important to the exchanges so they might as well close shop and move out of the city to get a Barton Biggs' farm.

Bernanke has a news conference next week after the Fed meets April 26-27. AFTER the meeting. ALL of you beware for some fireworks. My guess is the dollar explodes on the 27th.

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

ROAD TO REDEMPTION

What a charge. Never in the modern history of stock markets has there been a greater advance. This historic recovery and stock advance brings tears to my eyes. I guess after thirty years of playing the stock market and taking it in the shorts on several pump and dump bull markets you can't help but get choked up when you see the courage of the Wall Street bankers bringing back our symbol of economy and financial prowess. Come on now be serious....admit it.... it makes ya proud doesn't it?? Just a little?? No?? Not even a little huh? Well...you can't say they haven't tried. I guess when they did God's work and Goldman alone shoved 28Billion in their 2009 X-mas stockings you probably had an idea that things just weren't quite kosher with the recovery. Of course those record bonuses the year before when the market crashed probably were still sitting sour on your tummies.

Only an illiterate has an excuse now after the last three years. This game is very clear. We are in decline. Its really not complicated. We have been at the party way to long living on a liquidity created by one of the most wicked financial weapons ever constructed....the fiendish mathematical derivative created by a diabolical group of mathematicians after a week long acid binge in the 70's. Michael Milken began exploiting some of their benefits in the 80's giving it a nice test run for the PTB before running afoul of the wrong prosecutor. There were a few hiccups along the way but once their potential was realized by the ponzi masters then the OK was given to release the Kraken on a dying empire. I like to give an analogy of trying to imagine giving the wounded Spartans at Thermopylae on the eve of the final Persian attack eight rocks apiece of crack cocaine. After they wiped out the Persians then what was left of the Three Hundred could have paddled boats across the Aegean in an hour and wiped there way across Turkey and Persia......probably could have taken over it all in a few days. Of course they would wind up Charlie Sheened, but hey....it was funs while the party lasted.

Yes indeed its that downer after the party is over. Its that Charlie Sheen effect that gets ya every time. Sure you had a multi-decade bender but now you have to pay the piper and that is just something that isn't quite what you had in mind. Or is it? Alas that is a different essay. For now we just are talking about the toot that is keeping the "big binge" from going completely Charlie Sheen. Make no mistake we ARE going there too. Its just that time needs to be bought while some "arrangements" are made.

We should keep this in a range with run up into the end of QE. Right now the Biotechs and energy remains in play. Watch for the sector rotations. I am in mostly cash here with a cloudy crystal ball. Wasn't that silver move amazing?? Gold's still has a target of 1600 sitting out there...the 1520 is about over with isn't it? The miners could get a real nice run going into the the next few weeks.. I'd like to see a pullback on the Stochs and RSI first but hey....wishin and gettin are two different things. HUI has totally underperformed the metals. Watta scam.....but ya play the cards you're dealt in this casino. There aint no other!

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

SERIOUS DEMAND PULL INFLATION update II

Its coming!! We have an entire population with incredible savings ready to step in and start buying things. THINGS. Things like cars....so they can load up those tanks with 5 dollar...6 dollar....or 8 dollar a gallon gas??? Those savings that the American consumer has piles of and can't wait to start spending want to buy new double door refrigerators to fill up with what??? Ten dollar/gallon milk....ten dollar/gallon... ten dollar/pound hamburger?? How about housing??? We can't wait to get out there and get some of those Mc Mansions for ourselves. They're waiting for us. Their real estate taxes.....their insurance costs....property taxes...association dues.....utiltiies for you new 8000 sq ft house.....and think of the prestige???? With all of the great manufacturing job growth developing there should be plenty of high paying jobs being prepared for these NEW buyers. Of course its probably a lot of people with savings that are going to step in an buy these homes.

Our plan is to debase the currency and provide liquidity to the point that Joe Shmoe MUST go out and start spending again or lose what little value his dollar has left. This is the plan. This is the Kamikaze mission our Fed has embarked on. YOU VILL SPEND YOU SHMUCKS!! Or will we?? It aint happening Ben. Not now....Not ever. This is going to end but not the way you portray it. In fact I think I'll call your bluff. You know very well its not going to work. You are completely aware of the end game and the end game is a deflationary collapse. Our economic house will be put back in order but not before the big boyz have finished positioning themselves for the ride into hell and then ultimately out again. Meanwhile you are going to maintain the charade that you are trying to "reinflate the bubble"....knowing full well you can't reinflate a bubble that has a hole in it the sise of Texas.

The strongest element of the country is being taken down by your policy while we maintain the very element that brought this country to the edge of the abyss....and now you a your bankers are pushing us over into the abyss. Oh....and you know you are.

Go ahead and send Timmy out to assuage the public. That is really insulting. You guys could have at least found a face for that position with some degree of believability that you could have pulled the strings on. Stuttering Hank Paulson was sad but Timmy GEITHNER???? Seriously??? Not even the most gullible sheep believe that puppet. Goldman Sachs revenues were great today and I will thank the lord that they were saved to make my country strong again. Hopefully they will all have another great bonus season. GL all........that demand pull inflation scenario should be a great trick to see......hint...its called stagflation Ben.......not inflation....not hyperinflation....

update I... thnx wilks.... http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-doomsday-trends-america-cant-survive-2011-04-19?link=MW_story_popular

update II... thnx sheeps... http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/04.11/occam.html

Monday, April 18, 2011

TREMORS

Before the big one, we should get some tremors. Right now we are gettin the tremors. Finland's sheeple are putting up a fight. They are crying foul. Greece is crying foul. Portugal and Ireland starting to "smell' foul. The Eurozone is starting to heat up again. Summer is coming. The public begins to warm up and take the streets to let their frustrations out. CNBS puts out the headlines and the predictable events take shape..... strengthening USD weakening Euro....rocky US equity market....strengthening bond market. All of this is anticipated by the puppeteers.

We need to keep the USD and Euro in a range and now the range gets it readjustment. We need air out of the commodity market and this will do it. At least temporarily. Oil should have some of its digits kicked out of it. This is just in time for the summer. Will all of this happen as commanded? Absolutely if this is what "they" have commanded. "IT IS WRITTEN." Sorry for the melodramatics. Oh by the way we need a little precious metal cool down before Eurozone troubles begin in earnest. This must occur before gold goes to its next level.....2000. That headline number will require some ugly news and the Eurozone PIIGS should do it.

Silver needs the crap kicked out of it.....There is an awful lot of exuberance in this trade right now. Gold will probably not move much percentage-wise but silver needs a 10-15% correction which would put it around 38.....thats my target...and I MIGHT stick to it.......but I will start accumulating Waaaaaaay before that...just in case I'm wrong.



On the run for a bit......check in later...btw keep those biotech plays goin....gl

Saturday, April 16, 2011

WILLIAM AND CATHERINE update II oh shit!!

You are invited to attend a ceremony celebrating the union of Prince William and Catherine (a poser) at the Royal Bruhaha. Or as Jerry Seinfeld stated this week its just another wedding. OR IS IT? After all they are Royals. And you all know what Royals are. I do. Essentially they are a bunch of inbred neerdowells that are vestiges of the middle ages. They remain today because in a modern, developed world the prevailing thought is we need to have these inbred, cheating, coniving, bunch of losers give us a model for what the ruling class should be. They serve a public image for the real ruling class that prefers to stand in the shadows of obscurity while pulling the strings for most of the developed world. As long as they have the Royal Stooges and their three ring circus for the public to view, then the true Royalty can conduct banking business as usual. Besides...in the past Royal stooges also served the useful function of providing a readily available source of heads for the masses when the cycles reached political extremes. Did you every get a look at some of these Royals? Trust me...beheading did everyone a favor.

Back to the business at hand. The Royal wedding is all over the Main Stream Media today. So is the serial killer that is loose in New York. Larry King's new replacement Pierce Dipchit is interviewing Sex and the City star Kim Cantrell with hard hitting questions like "what does it feel to be a 50y/o sex symbol?" Next we have on the weekend news the candidacy of DONALD TRUMP taking center stage.....arguing the "birther issue" (the PTB are laughing their arses off)...of course they make no mention of the Donald's all out support of the TARP bailout that he endorsed. Of course he endorses the bailout for the bankers. WHAT DO YOU THINK HE GOT WHEN HE WENT BROKE twenty years ago? And don't you think for one moment that he isn't broke as we speak if it weren't for TARP and all the other bailout programs. But somehow there are still people out there that think he represents conservative principles....

Not much on Yemen, Japan, Syria, Egypt, Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Iceland, Spain.....well ...you get the picture. Enjoy the weekend. That clock is running.

http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Other%20Side%20of%20Inflation%20Martin%20Armstrong%2004-13-2011.pdf

update I...this falls under the heading of Are you foching kidding me.....NOW you tell me...lol...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42556230/ns/business-real_estate/

update II....http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-16/texas-university-takes-cue-from-kyle-bass-to-hold-1-billion-in-gold-bars.html


Friday, April 15, 2011

THE GRIFT update II BABOOM!!

Short term target of 42 on silver achieved and the 1520 in gold is very close. We could easily get an overshoot in silver, but why fight the greatest casino in history. After all, they did create the greatest ponzi economy the world has ever witnessed. Today they are smiling with satisfaction as their casino operates smoothly like the digitalized marvel that it is. Unfortunately underneath the calm surface lurks some very nasty icebergs just waiting to put some holes in the casino participants.

Any organized ponzi requires a mark. The ability to get the mark to follow the ponzi requires confidence in the ponzi to be established......hence the BIG CON. Now where most marks fall prey are to their own weaknesses. Certainly placing too much trust in the Confidence man is a weakness, but what helps the most is when the CONfidence man finds a weakness like vanity or greed or naivette to manipulate. I personally find the greed to be the human trait that is most effective for the con. Not only is this trait one that a good grift loves to utilize, but one in which I have NO sympathy for the victim that succumbs to their own greed. A good trader uses greed to their advantage frequently. Some traders can ride a momentum trade using greed to extreme heights. When the runs are over, they know just when to exit. I am NOT that trader nor do I claim to be.

We have many human traits which we have to fight. These traits are used to separate us from our money. I fight fear in the great con. Fear is a powerful motivator for a good con and is used quite effectively in the market to shake you out of a trade. It happens with virtually every stock you play. It's particularly used in the precious metal trade. This game has been going on for many centuries and the grift works over and over. Our vanity, our greed, our fear, our naivette are all part of this game we try to participate in. Discipline and your ability to recognize and control these weaknesses in all of us is what will help you make decisions that ultimately will determine whether a fool and his money are soon to part.

This market is in awash with liquidity. QE2 should continue until June. Will the market crash before QE 2 expires? NO...not a crash but a nice pullback can occur and a nice trading opportunity may arise. There is no way I can predict that and I do not intend to try. Certainly there are probablities to consider. The dollar needs to find some footing soon. That should provide another buying opportunity for commods and equities. If you've made some nice profits just remember there is no shame in taking profits. There will be more buying opportunities. Some will be intraday trading situations and eventually some more clear swing trades. Biotechs still have some run but its a stock to stock pick. Remember.....PMs are the headlines that the the Central Bankers do not want to see running so they will knock this trade every chance they get. So you will have more entries that arise on those knockdowns. gl

update I...speaking of cons....

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-heres-setup-con-decade

update II....this should make some Monday convulsions..

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jan-hatzius-friday-night-bomb-we-are-downgrading-our-real-gdp-growth-estimate-1%C2%BE-2%C2%BD?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

Who is Ellen Aim ???? and Why does Michael Pare leave her??? WTF ....BTW best ending to a schmaltzy eighties flick.......EVER

Thursday, April 14, 2011

THE WITCH'S BREW

Predicting the stock market is impossible nevertheless that is what we try to do. The attempt to predict is based upon an unending flow of misinformation pouring from the minions of Wall Street. This forms the basis of our investment decisions. This is why retail investors are sheared. And its just not the retail investors that get sheared. It's larger investors including the hedge fund boys that are not part of the "Boyz club" that try to cross the most powerful economic juggernaut in the world. So don't feel too insignificant. Even though you are. Look at it a different way. Just try and maintain knat size significance and maybe they won't crush you. That is an advantage in this game. In other words stay away from the crowd. Eventually that becomes the target. We've been running with the crowd to some degree because that IS the direction the market wants to take us all. Longer term that is still their game but we are getting closer to the end game so an element of risk is increasing as you stay in the game. Predicting the day to day and week to week movements is absurd. But you do have some ability to predict areas of increased risk.

Right now we are increased intermediate term risk. There is a need to remove frothe from commodity prices and the market. There is a need to drag more mom and pop investors into the stock market and that means we need some correction. Corrections need some time and the stochastics MACDs and RSIs say we need a couple of weeks so hold ing a good chunk of cash is prudent. You maybe addicted to this casino but patience is a virtue right now. Nibbling and trading some of the miners here can be productive but your fingers might get burned and you may be an investor for longer than a month if you pick them up at these prices. But on hard beatdowns you can make some great intraday day trades.

EUO is getting cheaper and cheaper... don't overlook that one. Its a longer term hold. When the Euro spreads pop this one is going to be a nice one to just sit in your portfolio. Those PIIGS are getting very warm right now. Summer should really pull them out onto the streets as austerity is demanded by the bankers and the debt slaves try to rebel. It will make great headlines on CNBS. I still have my PHYS and a little PSLV to trade. I also like our biotech plays. ANIK is brewing.

Tuesday, April 12, 2011

WEDNESDAY WINDUP

No change in the program. Consolidation for the next week or two with air letting in the commod sector. Any good manipulation of a global economy needs to have some periodic blood letting. The coordinated announcement with the the golden boyz (GS) this week on Oil and now copper should have been anticipated. Certainly its intention is transparent enough. If your stated intention is to repair a global economy by monetization then you cannot have your tsunami of liquidity creating a disastrous stagflationary burdern on billions of people. After all if you did this then of course you would have uprisings springing up globally as families wrestled with the choices of shelter or food or political freedom. Oh wait.....never mind...thats another thread. Let's just say the game can only continue with these little pin pricks on an ever expanding liquidity induced bubble.

Certainly oil's most recent move is a result of the current monetization. Some may argue that its supply and demand driven.. Ok...I'll accept that....maybe 2% is. What is really occurring in this latest move is a highly manipulated and I might add cynical manipulation by GS to squeeze some VERY large short positions in Oil. This move was halted when the PTB said enough was enough and a cease and desist order was given. Yes....thats right boyz ....you bastards still made a shit pile....but you didn't get all of it did you???

Unfortunately they went too far. A certain amount of oil spiking was wanted but not to the extent they pushed it. Now they have some serious "CONfidence" damage to undo and that just isn't that easy to repair. Right now there are some very damaged consumers and businesses. Monetary policy can only do so much to repair the recent structural damage they just created with the oil spike. Alas...this will not be the last of this type of pain so you better get used to it. This is one of the reasons that our energy plays are far from over. ATPG HNR NBR WPRT GMXR HERO SGY etc.

I'd like to see another week or two of healthy retreat in silver and gold but I might nibble or trade intraday as some of these miners correct here. Watch the stochastics and RSIs in these for buy lines. BE PATIENT.

GS does not want you on these trades so they are going to shake you out. That means they should take silver down further.

JUST LIKE CLOCKWORK

The boyz at GS prick the commod bubble with their announcement and as planned the sir is let out of the bubble. Ya gotta luv it.... Of course if you were greedy and didn't book some nice profits in the PMs and Energy plays you're getting some ugly reality today. I'm looking at a week or two of downward bias. Dip buying here is going to be very tricky. SLW already corrected almost 15% for instance. I bet it gets a 25% haircut. ANV needs a haircut as does SSRI. Just remember this is a haircut and hair will grow back. So your core is still safe.

Anytime you engage in the extraordinary monetary policy that Ben has then you must have the capability to let the steam out of the stagflation...and if you control the most powerful hedge fund ever then you can do these little pin pricks. AMAZING isn't it ...right on Q GS announces they are getting out of their long commod position. The push the shorts in OIL to the breaking point....now they are short. That's how you play the game. My small DTO position from last week is sold today. I'm not greedy,,,but they could take oil into the low nineties here....Remember the name of the game is to flush the weak hands.....and there is a lot of leverage in this trade. GS will then reload and gun it again with their free POMO money.

PMs need a beatdown. A very serious beatdown. Look for serious bargains next week in this sector. If you want to dip buy make it tiny right now. I'll probably buy very small ammounts of SSRI ANV SLW.

Biotechs are all holding well. ANIK looking strong. This is the time where you enjoy the great spring weather and make your time with you family count. Let the big boyz do the heavy lifting. gl

Monday, April 11, 2011

MONDAY MELTUP

Surprise its the same game thats been the game that is the game. When you have a global liquidity CONfidence disaster looming in front of you with global breakdowns in many regimes around the world I guess you have to expect some paint to be put on the DOW. Toss in a nuclear reactor meltdown after a monster earthquake and Tsunami in one of the most populated and developed ares of the world and you have some serious money printing going on.

This is the area of the market for traders that can be very tricky. Complacency is very high with a nice extended run up here in many sectors of the technical indicators. Rotation from sector to sector and withing sectors to extend this trading top is the call right now. Stop running is becoming more common within several of our favorite energy stocks so be very careful with trading them. My advice from last week still stands which is to taake profit and hide in cash. That doesn't mean you cant trade the gaps intraday but reducing your core here is warranted. If you are greater than 50% equities right now then you must like playing the Roulette wheel when you go to Vegas.

Silver has had a monster run and I just can't see holding your full core here. Intraday trading in some of the miners like EXK SSRI SLW HL ANV EGO make sense. If I'm going to hold these in a core EGO and HL might be a little safer here from a downside risk/reward perspective.

I like a clear line of fire and I just don't have it right now. If we could get a nice correction for a couple of weeks RIGHT HERE....I will sing a different toon.....then I would expect the run up into the end of POMO.
The biotechs are still in play so don't pull there string yet. ZLCS AEN etc

Sunday, April 10, 2011

"WE'RE BROKE!"

Quote from James Baker on CNN this morning. As I listened to Mr. Baker who was Reagans Chief of staff and GH's Secretary of Treasury, I just had to smile. He was all over the map with his double speak. Lambasting the two parties for "profligate spending" then admitting that the debt ceiling was lifted multiple times under his watch. He again attacked the spending side of the budget with a torrid attack on "entitlements". Not one mention of the military side of the budget.....roughly 1 trillion dollars a year counting their retirement legasy costs. When pressed on limiting spending and not raising the debt ceiling this year he IMMEDIATELY said we had to lift it. Baker is a consummate banker/politician...very shrewd...but very self serving. He is appearing on the airwaves to prepare the populace for the bankers. Like most operators of his ilk he gives you multiple truths then gives you either false conclusions or more cleverly "distorted conclusions".

For instance who would not whole-heartedly agree that the government spending is out of control. That's simple enough isn't it. Lets start with DISCRETIONARY SPENDING. Out of just over ONE TRILLION ....what does it look like?? Here is 2010...

663.7 billion (+12.7%) – Department of Defense (including Overseas Contingency Operations)
$78.7 billion (−1.7%) – Department of Health and Human Services
$72.5 billion (+2.8%) – Department of Transportation
$52.5 billion (+10.3%) – Department of Veterans Affairs
$51.7 billion (+40.9%) – Department of State and Other International Programs
$47.5 billion (+18.5%) – Department of Housing and Urban Development
$46.7 billion (+12.8%) – Department of Education
$42.7 billion (+1.2%) – Department of Homeland Security
$26.3 billion (−0.4%) – Department of Energy
$26.0 billion (+8.8%) – Department of Agriculture
$23.9 billion (−6.3%) – Department of Justice
$18.7 billion (+5.1%) – National Aeronautics and Space Administration
$13.8 billion (+48.4%) – Department of Commerce
$13.3 billion (+4.7%) – Department of Labor
$13.3 billion (+4.7%) – Department of the Treasury
$12.0 billion (+6.2%) – Department of the Interior
$10.5 billion (+34.6%) – Environmental Protection Agency
$9.7 billion (+10.2%) – Social Security Administration
$7.0 billion (+1.4%) – National Science Foundation
$5.1 billion (−3.8%) – Corps of Engineers
$5.0 billion (+100%) – National Infrastructure Bank
$1.1 billion (+22.2%) – Corporation for National and Community Service
$0.7 billion (0.0%) – Small Business Administration
$0.6 billion (−14.3%) – General Services Administration
$19.8 billion (+3.7%) – Other Agencies
$105 billion – Other


Here is the part I like...LOOK....its right in front of you. Can you see it??? A very smart man like James Baker never mentioned the word. NOOOOOOOO. I wonder why. Its the 800lb gorilla in the room, but the power behind the military industrial complex/energy cabal are all tied together at the hip. It rules the world. IT doesn't protect the world or "defend" us. It literally puts us at an incredible risk. Economically it is an absolute catastrophe. We have 800 military bases in 150 countries. WE STILL OCCUPY GERMANY.......WHY????? The cold war was the excuse. Thats been over for decades. Its all money. Its democracy by the few for the few. Its the best democracy money can buy. Go ahead keep it up. Use divide and conquer on the sheep. Give them slave labor goods from China. Dummy them down with declining education. You don't want a repeat of that 60's crap again. People in the streets is very uncomfortable. Ask yourself one thing when you come up with your solution. Is your solution the best solution for the good of the most people. Meanwhile you can get your solutions for all of this from our next president....a bad comb-over pompous blow-hard that is waving more divisive issues like O's birth certificate while he gives you simplistic solutions that benefit the few. Go ahead gang ....keep falling for it.....and you will....you always have and you always will.

addendum......the defense spending does NOT include the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.....they are STILL "off budget"......perhaps another 200billion/year. That does not include the long term liabilities including their debt service and long term health care liabilities. Those traumatic brain injuries and limb loss will add up.

"Focus on the good times..."

Saturday, April 9, 2011

ARE YOU SMARTER THAN A FIFTH GRADER

I received a call this week from an old friend I made during the free fall of 2008. As the collapse progressed we became "educated" on the intricacies of our current system and just how completely manipulated the electorate of this country has become. What became more apparent is just how little input the 99% of the population has on the sytem that purports itself to be a democracy.

You go through a process. It's similar to the Kubler/Ross five steps of dying. In this case number one is denial. NOOooooo....it can't be? NOOoooo....surely there cannot be a complete control of every aspect our "free market capitalism" by an "elite few"?? Com'm are you serious? A Corporatocracy? It has been that way for centuries. Its just evolved into a much larger more dangerous system now. We have the capacity to wage war that can destroy the entire populations of countries....even the world. We can literally create diseases that surrepticiously destroy entire segments of society under the guise of "natural selection". Very effective population controls I might add, but that is another thread.

Secondly you will enter into the stage of ANGER.....furious that you have been betrayed. You blame the messengers. You lash out at your friends. You believed there was a choice and thought that by voting for that scoundrel would give you your 10% tax cut that you so richly deserved. Putting that 5 grand back in your pocket that year so you could go out and put a down payment on a new truck and stay a debt slave for five more years and burn 2 dollar gas while you cheered the evening 2 minute videos of kill shots from Iraq to maintain "price control". I love this game. Its so simple. You don't dare question why we are still in two wars (undeclared I might add) after being promised they would only last a matter of months, because you would be called "unpatriotic". And don't tell me that you weren't guilty. Part of the process of evolving from sheep status is to accept you were USED!!!

The third phase is bargaining.....we all have our methods here.....just let me make enough money that I can get to retirement and live in a shit hole until my unemployed prodigy in the basement that I've stuffed with MickeyDee can become self-suficient. Or....just let me trade the market a little bit longer.....never mind I know its all smoke and mirrors....and certain death lurks behind the curtain.

Fourthly....Depression....you become miserable. Your friends avoid you for fear of listening to your doom. You feel like you have a disease that is contagious and no one wants near you. BTW......don't waste your time trying to explain....it only will make them more sick of you. Get off your ass and do something productive for someone else and quit thinking about yourself.

Finally......Acceptance. You realize your fate. You realize there is NOTHING that can change this system.....Built on centuries of human emotions and behavior. It wasn't that difficult. Simple techniques like divide and conquer worked very predictably. You wanted free market capitalism.....THIS IS FREE MARKET CAPITALISM. Its the ultimate extension of letting the Market's strongest participants dominate. Now they truly dominate the weak. Eventually they have taken over every aspect of any controls that bridled their dominance. You wanted it. Now you've got it. Don't complain. Its the game. gl

Friday, April 8, 2011

NASCAR ECON 101

Put the pedal to the metal. Let's give this baby the "juice". Its time to show this world what we have. The BULL of ALL BULLS. Its party time. You wanna short me??? I'll rip your head off and sh*t down your neck. This is the put up or shut up time for the bears and my guess is when they get through with the bears the only thing left to do will be to turn out the lights. Straight up from 666 to glory. You can count on one thing for sure....Ben's got your back baby.

How do you trade the greatest bull ever when you know its all one great big effort to prop up the greatest ponzi of leverage EVER?? Well.....long of course. You hold your nose and you wade in to the nastiest mess ever created by man. Over 1.25 Quadrillion of derivatives created (most of them over the last 10 years) making this toxic brew worse than the radioactive waste pouring into the Pacific Ocean from the FUKU reactors. You couldn't have made this kind of scenario up. Its non-fiction that would put most Hollywood writers to shame. Wouldn't it be nice to go back to those days of yesteryear believing that laws mattered and that if you blew your wad on an overleveraged scam you just got your plug pulled and you went BK. Now balance sheets must be sheilded from the public while the PTB play a game of extend and pretend and maintain "business as usual" in hopes that a magical patch will be found to stop the bleeding and the eventual collapse.

I still like some great spec plays as long as the liquidity spigot is on ....ANIK and POZN have a nice shape....but only for your mad money and be nimble. Both are not as bad as some of our Chinese plays but they can still take hits.....but the risk/reward is enough.

As stated repeatedly Gold and Silver is making its breakout run and PHYS PSLV is how I'm playing it. You have decide your tolerance here but for a trade you gotta like it. Iam in heavy cash for safety but day trading the miners. I know I know.....42 is my target on silver and its getting damn close. Gold in PHYS is more of a hold here. 1500 is so close I can smell it. I may hold PHYS to 1600...I like that number...it reminds me of 1600 Pennsylvania...

HNR looked like a move is coming after yesterday's volume up move...yum.

Forget the noise hold what you can afford to sleep on at night and try to stay in the game....gl

Thursday, April 7, 2011

MANAGING RISK

How long do you ride this wave? Do you surf it all the way to the glory overthrow? How long can the liquidity push this market? The dollar has reached oversold territory dragging the market and commodities to higher and higher levels. The real question though is how can the market NOT continue to rise as long as POMO remains with QE2 until June? Does the greatest trading floor ever assembled allow the sheep to just sit and collect long until the end of POMO? It's a simple enough plan but without another nasty correction how do their traders rake in end of the year bonuses. After all they set the curve and have the key's to the castle. Do you want to be a bagholder?

My advice here remains the same. As we enter territory where your technical indicators on many of your holdings are showing a strain on you MACD's and RSI's. Why test fate? You've made some coin this year. Why be greedy here? Sure....we may get the blow off for your sell signal, but what's wrong with taking a little profit here? You can still have positions in the miners and PM's like PSLV and PHYS. The physical papers will take less of a percentage correction. Look at last summer....it might be similar. Energy stocks are needing a correction too. SGY NBR HNR WPRT GMXR HERO would all look nicer cheaper. I still have positions in HNR and GMXR.

Gold and Silver may very well push to 50 over the next two months. So I still like a core in the PHYS and PSLV. Trading the miners intraday or by swing trading with a reduced core makes more sense. SSRI and SLW need a week of correction before I get back in.

The biotech spec craps aren't affected by this overall market and if you want to look at one that actually has earnings and looks tasty here....ANIK. They've knocked it down and now they are taking it up.........maybe...hehehehe. gl

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

THE WALL OF WORRY

And UP we go that proverbial "wall of worry". Now you know where they found that terminology. Maarkets have always been manipulated throughout their history. You were just led to believe that free market forces guided them. Well if you haven't figured out what reality is by now then you never will. Over time nature provides equilibratiion such as pressure by the costs of essentials and the ultimate impact on runaway liquidity. Of course the life blood of equities is liquidity. Right now we are pouring it into the markets through the Fed's printing presses. Imagine a sputtering old stalled truck engine on the side of a highway and having a tanker truck pull up along side and start pouring in gasoline at such a rate its sloshing an pouring out all over the truck and road. The sputtering engine doesn't really start revving up but the massive ammount of spilled gas ignites and everything around them are consumed. Eventually something is going to give with the "Le Grande Experiment".

Have no fear...you are but mice withing the greatest economic laboratory experiment in the world. There will be no going back. Do not be disuaded by the pundits. We cannot withdraw the process of monetization. One way or another there will be monetization of our debt. The insane desire to reinflate a debt bubble collapse with more debt is only insane if you don't understand why it was done. Without this strategy by the Fed there would have been a complete destruction of the bondholders of the top ten largest banks...not just here but all around the developed world. The toxic brew that has placed hundreds of Trillions of liquidity onto their balance sheets still exists. The extend and pretend will lessen some of it as a few mortgages mature but that is only a small percentage of this toxic brew. Eventually only a washout will work. 2015 will be the end of the Kress Cycle deflationary wave and you can expect equities to get a real whacking by the K winter.....Make no mistake gold will do quite well. They will take an intial whack but will recover nicely as investors seek shelter with the fear trade taking over for gold.

Right now energy appears to be going through a short term top in many of the equities we play here. NBRs chart looks short term toppy. HNR GMXR looks better. WPRT also need some air taken out of it. Oil can run higher but its struggling too. Ben is desperate to push inflation into the system so he will take oil higher if he must. Yes that's correct, Ben wants inflation. Deflation is like Garlic right now to him. Once he has solidified his bank's balance sheets then he will wipe all the rest out. Time is his precious commodity here.

Silver is in breakout but I look for a nice smackdown at 42 area. That should have peak euphoria. It won't be too big of a hit less than 5 dollars. Then up to 50 for the bloody take down buy. hehehee.......watta game. SLW is a monster so is SSRI as the hedges pour into them.

Tuesday, April 5, 2011

HOLD YOUR FIRE!! HOLD HOLD HOLD

It seems like the last few weeks has been like watching paint dry. The market is maintaining a range with continued pressure on the vix. Trying to create an illusion of stability while black swan after black swan flys overhead. Japan is rocked by a millenial earthquake then a nuclear meltdown. Both events are still unfolding in terms of their damage to this once proud, powerful economic country. The ramification of these events will be felt throughout the world's economic systems. The nuclear event could impact Japan for decades.

The Middle East is in meltdown mode. Never in our history have I seen ANYTHING like this. After imposing/supporting a various hodge podge of dictatorships for decades it looks like the chickens are coming home to roost. SHOCKING! I suppose after depicting these people as sub-human many Americans look up from their reality shows just long enough to see the riots and revolutions on 30 second clips and wonder why the subhumans don't like their leaders. Most Americans always assumed that these countries were just a bunch of Muslims that would accept a good benevolent dictator. I guess that silly internet thing with the population of many of these cities having a higher degree of education than the average American probably contributed. Funny how that works.

One thing is certain....ENERGY is still front and center. Our stumbling and bumbling without a coherent energy policy is getting more shocking by the day. Surely by now I thought that a clear path would have been set forward. Certainly the vast nat gas reserves must hold some allure for industry and politicians. But NOOOOOO. No real movement. Its coming. It has to. Pay attention to HERO WPRT SGY HNR NBR FSYS. Pay attention....great trades this year on pullbacks. gl

Monday, April 4, 2011

CNBS BULLISH SILVER

There is nothinng that can bring more discomfort to an investment position than to wake up and find that CNBS is bullish on your position with pundits galore suddenly touting its luster. Thats what we are seeing in Silver now. It will soon be time to take a short term break as the PTB slap the snot out of this metal. Does that mean we need to call a top?? NO NO NO.......Just be aware that we have talked about the round numbers of 40 and 50. The PTB just might take it over forty very strongly and really pump the metal through the press before its first beatdown. I like a position now in PSLV for a hold. But if they take this through 40 strongly I will only sell a third of my position and try to hold for another dollar on PSLV. It would be very headline grabbing to retail sheep when silver pops through 40 strongly and we know very well what they can do with the paper trade. Purchasing Morgan and Peace silver dollars is very hard to do now and many are predicting that the scrap silver coins are next. They really disappeared fast.

Energy remains a focus. ATPG SGY NBR GMXR HNR HERO WPRT. I'm trading them actively and holdin a couple here.....but have reduced significantly SGY NBR HERO and WPRT.... Its still in bullish trend but I just like my cash more right now.

Waiting on DPTR OSIR OPXA...need to see some action.

Added CGR friday to my miners....I am not heavy on miners so that means they are going to have a nice run this week.....gl all

Saturday, April 2, 2011

BROTHA CAN YA SPARE A DIME

Some very good articles this week and I just want to make some quick comments for arguments sake and a reminder. As we have stated on this site a number of times we are not going to end this in a frenzy of hyperinflation. We are going to end this as the we have ended these cycles for hundreds of years in a deflationary washout. Sure..we are pouring Trillions upon Trillions of liquidity into the system but it is essentially going into a black hole of the Derivative/Big Banks reserves....ie the banksters are trading worthless derivatives to the Fed/Treasury. Without a true increase in velocity of money....ie a return of confidence in the future economic growth there will be no hyperinflation. In the short term a year or two we will see some of this hot money slosh around into overseas carry trade darlings and into the commodities. Soft hard and PRECIOUS...

This has been the game for hundreds of years for the banksters. Why?? Because they know when the plug is going to be pulled. So do their big bank pals. Its an inside game. If you have control of the money then its "magic". "Suddenly" there will be an impetus to pull the plug. Probably a ripple from a butterfly on a pond in China or Japan.

In the meantime we are in a market that entails rolling the dice in the casino of the Titanic while the bands is playing and the women and children are loading the lifeboats. Does that sound like a game you wanna be in ??? I'm old and crazy so it actually sounds like a challenge that I will get only once in a lifetime. As long as you know what you are doing feel free to engage.

My weekend contrarian buy and hold play for the next few months is EUO...at least until September. We may get a multi year double bottom on the dollar/euro at 17....but its getting too intriguing with the much telegraphed/ballyhooed Euro rate increase coming. So I see a sell the news event for the Euro. Also Ben needs to pull some steam out of commods, especially oil. Anyway don't bet the farm but if you think the warm weather coming in Europe and the U.S. isn't going to bring out some unrest on the streets then you need to get off the casino tables and look around you. People are getting maxed out financially and mentally. I like the below article just differ completely in how the boyz will play it.

http://gonzalolira.blogspot.com/2011/04/causes-of-mess-were-in.html



Summer's comin and so is 110th street.......



Friday, April 1, 2011

ARE WE BEING LIED TO? update II

I started this out as a thesis but then had to stop when I realized it would be over two-thousand words for the introduction only. So I thought I would switch it up and try and find a few truths. Interestingly enough I could find a couple. After telling us all of 2007-2008 there were no market problems the PTB informed us in late 2009-to the present that the world indeed was on the brink of collapse and that all of the extraordiary measures that were taken inspite of many of our protests and in violation of hundreds of legal statutes with hundreds of years of law behind them......were necessary to save us from disaster. Here is where they lose me....Save us from what?? I thought the continual reassurance throughout the stock market and economic collapse of 2007 through 2008 that everything was stabilized was enough. Now I find out that they are coming clean with us over the past year and we were in complete meltdown then. Dr. Bernanke, Secretary Paulson, and cough puke Secretary Timmy now tell us in interviews and sworn testimony that the TRILLIONS AND TRILLIONS AND TRILLIONS of dollars that were spent through the ingenious plans of our mad economic scientists WORKED and the extraordinary measures that weren't really needed in 2008 that really were needed in hindsight in 2011 after careful analysis.........did indeed work.

Now I believe them. At least the proof is in the pudding...just look at the stock market. It is after all forward looking. I know that because CNBS tells me that. They told me that in mid 2007 repeatedly as it climbed to new highs. I decided I would try and be even MORE forward looking and shorted the banks in mid 2007 while the market remained forward looking. I think that once again the market is forward looking. I know it is because I am watching housing and jobs. They are continuing to collapse. So I know the market will be right. After all I'm not sure they can do anything but go up. The only trouble is there seems to be some structural impediments that the market and its Pundit Pumping Pukes (PPP) a branch of the PPT....just don't want to address. THERE IS NO FOCHING INDUSTRY HERE ANYMORE. So who is going to create all of these future jobs. Oh....WAIT! I know. Sbarros will. They are restructuring and have a new feature that will hire thousands.....Alpo pizza. They say you can't get enough.

I guess if you print Trillions in IOU's and put it into the biggest banks and deepest pockets its not hard to afford some paint for a ticker each day. So if this is Ben's idea of front running the economy then I guess I'm all in. Heck I just talked to a guy driving a rig at a truck stop a couple of hours and he was bullish on the market. He said if he could sell his wife at the next stop he might be able to fill his tank to get him home in time to go long after the morning's job report.

Personally I am all in favor of austerity here and balancing the budget here. Like most sheep lets cut the hell out of Pell Grants, Medicaid for children, Head Start, PBS, and Privatize Social Security(the Bankers have their eye on that money for years) I say we can squeeze maybe one percent out of those first four. Throw those women and kids to the curb.... And if you want some bang for your bucks...turn Social Security over to Wall Street...

Now we are in recovery so enjoy. Raise interest rates??? Stop QE??? Wow! I guess they really think this stock market IS the economy. Something tells me they know better. Are they telling the "truth" again?

update I....yup itsa lie....

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/do-economists-even-look-data-they-claim-supports-%E2%80%9Crecovery%E2%80%9D?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

update II http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/04/alabama-judge-accepts-new-york-trust-theory-dismisses-foreclosure-action-for-failure-to-comply-with-pooling-and-servicing-agreemen.html