Sunday, July 31, 2011

THE HUNTER


Make no mistake who the hunter is.....It's nature. There is no escaping nature not even the smartest minds the greatest economic cabal have, can outrun what is coming. Unfortunately the highest members of the food chain seldom have to pay the piper. Its almost always the weak and infirmed that suffer the consequences and in this case they almost certainly will (and are already) bearing the brunt. One in five families are on food stamps in the U.S. right now. What an astounding number considering we are not even in recession. The unemployment U6 is over 17%. Again we are not even in a recession. The revised FIRST QUARTER GDP was 0.4% and we are not even in a recession. Announcements of coming layoffs in many sectors are starting to pour in and no one is batting an eye on the MSM. CNBS is still quarreling over the threat to raise taxes on "Job Creators" while Rome burns. I guess they think that the great sucking sound of jobs wasn't a structural issue over the last 30 years but a burdensome tax issue on the billionaires and trillionaires. Maybe if they could push away from their own 7 figure salaries and look at the real peeps out their struggling to just make ends meet they might find a different America than their personal puppeteers want them to depict on air. Nevermind that is NEVER going to happen. Its amazing how much support/silence a 7 figure "reporters" salary buys you in today's MSM world. Loyalty is always for sale if the price is right.

Its Sunday and its just another day in the world of breaking news. Last night's lead story was the same as the previous two weeks of evening news......the Debt Crisis Showdown and how many anchovie pizzas the hard working pols had delivered to the capital while they tried valiantly to save our economy. It's amazing that in a precious 18.5 minutes of "Evening News" you get the same manufactured crisis for two straight weeks with a continual beating-up of the "tea Party" patsies without a single deviation from the story line. Worse yet they manage to trot out another Royal Wedding of the 13th in line of succession as a "filler" for the feel good peeps for THREE successive nights. I wonder if these journalistic Ho Bags can look in a mirror without puking.

Enough of the Sunday sermon. Just pay attention to the ball. Joe is lurking again and wants you to look at ABAT. Chinese company with a lot of potential in a sector that will be a monster. I still think Miners are in position to take a little further downside this week but long term you can hold them. Eventually they will move when the boyz have filled their stockings full. The SHTF eventually.....and it needs to but we've still got the lights on so don't bitch about the game....Its what keeps the lights on.

http://www.10sigma.com/files/Restructuring%20the%20World%2007-28-2011.pdf

Saturday, July 30, 2011

DID ANYONE GET THAT NUMBER


Of that bus that rolled over Wall Street trader's this week. For those that read this site on a regular basis then the past five days should have come at no surprise and the loss of 700 billion from the value of equities this week should barely raise an eyebrow. Personally I would have liked to have seen the streets flowing a little more red but I may get that wish on Monday. Beware of what one wishes for....it just might come true. Lost in all the hooplah over the manufactured debt ceiling crisis were the real issues that we are dealing with. Last quarter's revision of GDP was shocking.....down to 0.4% and this quarters GDP of 1.3% (also to be revised later) reflect a dying economy.

"Economic growth ... was much weaker than the government
had previously estimated and this opens the door for
potentially another round of quantitative easing from the
Federal Reserve," said Gary Thayer, chief macro strategist at
Wells Fargo Advisors in St. Louis. "Therefore, the bond market
responded positively to the weak GDP number while the dollar
weakened." The data showed the U.S. economy in greater danger of
dipping into another recession than many had thought. "The problem in the second quarter was very, very
restrained consumer spending," said Pierre Ellis, senior
economist at Decision Economics in New York. "A revival in
consumer spending is critical to keeping us out of recession.

Ok then what do we take away from this week's action. The economy is weakening but most of the peeps are having their attention focused by the MSM on the circus in D.C. ...... WHY? Several possible explanations. One that is obvious is the increase in the value of treasuries .....certainly beneficial for the holders of this debt. Particularly if you are wanting to exit these positions under cover of crisis. Turn up the noise and and pull out the chain saws. By the time the noise subsides a lot of bonds can be moved. Good things happen to those that make them happen.

It might work like this: Bloomberg reported that Mike Feroli, Chief Economist for JP Morgan Chase, who said that the Fed has a contingency plan (right there you had better stop) in case Congress doesn't act on the debt. It would allow "certain" banks and financial institutions to exchange their Treasuries for green Cash from the FED. My my my....how convenient.... Crisis=Premium Treasury prices=cash into selected Banks.....ouila.......QE 2.75..... get ready Freddy.....I smell MONEY!! Now guess where these selected banks are.....here is a hint....don't forget "contagion".

Of course this is only conjecture and one should not make trading decisions based on this but you might want to examine this over the weekend....enjoy your weekend See ya Sunday night after the weekend theatrics and the futures open.

Friday, July 29, 2011

YOU GOTTA BE KIDDIN' ME


No not really.....as expected the Kabuki theater is playing out to the bitter end. The drama is killin' me. SHOCKING I TELL YOU!! Sorry...not really. Its funny... CNBS as predicted is an unabashed cheerleader for the debt ceiling increase. Their reporters slapping every "tea party" congressman for their "obstruction". I'm not going to belabor the pros and cons of either "side" except to say that CNBS should be ashamed of their unabashed biased "reporting". If it weren't so embematic of what is behind the decline of our empire...er...country then it would be comical.

Today changes none of my previous several days posts. Just keep your eye on the ball. this is manipulated panic to obtain several objectives. Notice how the disastrous GDP numbers have been lost in all the debt extension noise. Even though the GDP number was distrous its actually WORSE. Things are deteriorating again and the Kabuki theater makes our peeps believe their is a two way battle going on that is fighting for their interest. YOU REALLY DO believe it don't you. Admit it. You think that your side is really fighting for you in D.C. don't ya???

Watch your favs here. I actually bought some XLF today and added a few miners. Miners aren't even near oversold yet so be VERY careful buying them. I still have PLENTY of cash in case they drag them to the bottom of the BB's and stochs. On the run today and sorry for the late post. Seems like interest is waning too......so gl

PS......GDP of 1.3 now guarantees QE 3........gl

LISTEN TO THE BELOW VID.....

Thursday, July 28, 2011

WE MUST DO SOMETHING!!!


We must do it NOW! Okay dokay I guess I'm all in then lets raise that ceiling and get this show going. After all....this is SERIOUS. In fact to prove this is serious, just look what happened to Mr. Market. That was a FEARFUL sell-off yesterday. One for the ages. That type of fear just can't be manufactured by a few Algobots......can it? At least surely Mr. Market wasn't having it's "wanker" pulled ........was it? That of course would imply......manipulation??? That's tin foil stuff and we know that would imply that those crazy PPT theories about the President's Working Group manipulating the market were true. Of course that nonsense has been debunked so we can now trade our market unimpeded.

Targets today:

$HUI 552
ANV 36.50
SLW 36.60
SSRI 27.35
EXK 9.20
AG 21
RIC 7.60
HL 7.90
GPL 3.31

Several of these either hit targets from yesterday or they are still sitting near key buy areas. Don't go "all in" here but these could turn out to be nice entry areas if you have been out of the trade. These are trade areas if you have your core already but I am still holding a heavy cash position here with my EUO hedge. $XEU jumped back into its channel so I will hold on to the short.

I'd love to turn off the noise but I can't help it. Its pure entertainment now on the MSM. Like a bunch of hens trying to impress a new rooster I hear the cacophony of the reporters increasing daily with the inane cries for the "debt ceiling". What has our news cycle come to? The DEBT CEILING?? That's where we've come to? THAT'S the NEWS? Without boring you with what the real news is I believe the average ten year old could do better. Piper time kids......PIPER TIME!! You're gonna pay it.....one way or another. Play your games. Cry foul. Cry help. Cry bailout. You had your wars. You had your McMansions. You had your phony stock market runs. You had your cheap gas. Now your're gonna pay. COUNT ON IT! Oh BTW those that think granny is getting too much with Social Security and Medicare and needs to suffer too. Careful what you wish for. You just might get it in spades. gl

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

PREDATOR OR PREY??



Are you the predator or the prey at this juncture? One thing is certain when you lean too heavy in this market you become the prey very quickly. We're overdue for some weak hands in the gold and silver trade to be loosened up so don't become the prey. Will it be a major shake out lasting almost 5 months like the most recent one. I doubt it. I am not a psychic but for now dips are to be bought and rips are....


$HUI showing overbought here caution advised...just remember it can get EVEN MORE overbought....Keep your eye on 552 for a touch and a buy of your picks. Its healthy for the miners to shake the tree here. So let's keep our buy fingers crossed. GDX on the 58 level also. Keep a lot of ammo in case they take it below the 50RSI. These are buy areas that I feel are short term (next few days reachable)....not stink bids....stink bids will be fine if you get lucky.

GPL 3.50
SLW 37
SSRI 28.60
EXK 10
AG 20.90-21.10
HL 8.10
ANV 37.50
RIC 7.75-8.0
GORO 25.25

If HERO doesn't catch a bid between here and 4.25 then its going to 3.65....ugghh. Watta market. I do own HERO here....at least for now.

GOLD and SILVER.....longer term turn off the noise. The troubles that have sent this to the position are not going to turn off. Short term you can hope they continue their consolidation but I think a new game is going on right now. We may get a shake out at these overbought levels but holding a core that you can be comfortable with getting a 10-15% beatdown is wise. Then add. $GOLD at 1550 is a wish list....

Silver....well thats an easy one..if it hits 39.10 I am buying.....since my core is too low there....but it is NOT THAT overbought yet so I may just be wishing....I am cautious and I want you to expect ANYTHING so always keep cash in case you do get the stink bid buys.

Oil and DTO...I will reiterate my hesitation to short oil....I've done it successfully three times in the last couple of weeks but the last DTO buy was a loser. They were all small trades and I won't buy any DTO unless it oil hits 102. AND it will be a small position. Like playing the nickel slots or the 5 dollar black jack table.

BTW if you believe this trade is in jeopardy longer term then explain how this type of news is going to get better....use your head...this is the game.

California Seeks $5B ’Bridge’ Loan to Pay Bills
By Michael B. Marois – Jul 25, 2011 9:00 PM MT

California will borrow $5 billion today through a temporary loan as U.S. states make plans to cope with any credit-market disruption should lawmakers fail to raise the federal debt ceiling by the Aug. 2 deadline.

Proceeds from California’s bridge loan will help pay bills until the state can sell cash-flow notes that had been scheduled for late August. New Mexico is asking agencies to complete requests for federal reimbursement by midday July 29 to ensure the it can get repaid, and Maryland was forced to cut $206 million off a planned bond sale as the debt talks dragged on.

“Given the uncertainty in Washington with the debt ceiling, the treasurer felt it was prudent to get a bridge loan,” said Tom Dresslar, a spokesman for California Treasurer Bill Lockyer. “We couldn’t have planned on the president and Congress taking us to the brink.”

States and local governments face higher borrowing costs if Congress fails to reach a compromise by the deadline. Because the U.S. borrows money through the sale of Treasury notes to pay its bills and refinance maturing debt, it could default if the limit isn’t increased. That might cost the government its top- ranked credit score, upend financial markets and send interest rates higher.

Moody’s Investors Service has said it may lower its top ratings on Maryland, South Carolina, New Mexico, Tennessee and Virginia because their dependence on federal revenue makes them vulnerable to a U.S. credit cut should talks to raise the debt limit fail.

Remember ......CONfidence is never retrieved by subterfuge and restoring the CON only. gl gang.

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

EXTEND AND PRETEND


What other choice do you have when the other two or a rock and a hard place. You try to keep kicking the can down the road hoping that the next Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, and Albert Einstein can come together at Starbucks and PRESTO the next great thing is born. Otherwise you know what is hiding behind door number three. Sorry for the mixed metaphors but its very early here and being on the road makes my brain foggy. Markets are in stall mode now too and all we can do is wait while they play out the Kabuki theater on the Media Circus that formerly had some credibility but obviously none now. I guess the evening press conferences are simply designed to make the peeps believe there is actually something being done by the representatives in D.C.. Of course we know this has all been determined by their puppet masters long ago. There will be nothing that comes out of this charade or the Euro charade that alters the basic landscape of the looming tsunami. The only thing substantial that will be accomplished is the positioning of the "real money" for the coming deflationary cleansing.

Positioning is vital for the process. Pump and dump cycles require forethought and careful planning. Taking out key excesses and repositioning assets is not as simple for them as selling your condo and putting it in gold and farmland. When you have to reposition hundreds of billions it must be a little more carefully done. It requires TIME. Its called accumulation. Equities aren't the only asset that is accumulated. In this case entire countries and global currencies are being decided as this cycle ends. Control of course is the ultimate game here. Many peeps naively ask WHY would a "cabal" exist and what possibly could be their motivation to create such mayhem in the financial world and its markets? Its simple. Its control. Look only at your recent history. It is littered over just the last century with examples of incredible madmen and human suffering. One may argue and sometimes accurately that this hidden hand pulling the levers of power helped to create either directly or indirectly many of these monsters. We don't have the time to address that argument today but their CONTROL and ultimate defeat was always within the cabals power. Now it is even more easy for the cabal to address any monster that arises due to their CONTROL and influence.

My plan today is to accumulate some small ammount of miners that may pullback. I never add to positions in any great ammount on small movements and at such levels of the bollinger bands, stochastics, and RSI....I think short term we climb higher but they will take a shot at the PM complex when and if they announce this "deal". Its the game....and I want to be buying when they kick the complex into the mud and proclaim its a stupid trade. gl all. GPL EXK AG SSRI SLW PSLV RIC....etc.

Monday, July 25, 2011

NO BIG DEAL


I'm feeling less scared today. It looks like "investors" are stepping back into equities and "stabilizing" the sell-off overnite. Well.....maybe. Let's see what happens today. In reality nothing will be settled. We'll only have another piece of gum put into the leaking dam when everything is said and done. First of all the pols are talking in terms of TEN YEARS. So whether you hear a "Three Trillion" cut or a "One Trillion cut...you have to put it in context. They are talking over TEN YEARS . That won't even come close to addressing the problem. Our YEARLY deficit is well over a TRILLION. So while we are cutting one or three trillion over the span of ten years we will ANOTHER 12 TRILLION F@#$!N dollars to the debt. This is not sustainable. So yes we are in a Kabuki theater moment. Its all a joke.

What will happen? What can we do to trade this. Well understand that unless the Fed wants to pull the plug and put us in depression this year.....we already are....but I mean a much deeper PAIN depression then we will have to have MO MONEY. MO MONEY MO MONEY....M2 money supply is rising quite dramatically over the last 2 weeks and this is real money so be aware, the Fed IS in there plugging the leaks RIGHT NOW.

I'm looking at overbought short term miners and gold. Can they get more overbought? YES YES YES. Just be aware. Everyone points to 1650 on gold so I look for a fight in this area. We will certainly get an attempt to take gold down when the "deal" is announced. We have a different issue with the miners. They are being driven by the boyz now and they can get a LOT further overbought......so be aware. We are in and inverse HnS on the miners $HUI and I have a lot further target to go. I still think we see 58 on SLW in the next few months. I don't own it right here. There are a basket of these to play GPL EXK SSRI HL ANV GFI EGO GORO AG




From Jesse's today USD LOOK AT THIS

Sunday, July 24, 2011

ITS ALMOST TIME


The markets could turn tumultuous if a plan isn’t negotiated over the weekend, said Christian Cooper, head of U.S. dollar derivatives trading in New York at Jefferies & Co.

WASHINGTON (AP) — With the clock ticking ever louder, Obama administration officials and congressional Republicans clashed anew Sunday over extending the nation's debt limit, with the White House threatening a veto if the government's borrowing authority is not extended through the next elections.

WASHINGTON WSJ—Congressional leaders didn't have a deal to cut the budget deficit and raise the government's debt limit early Sunday and remained at an impasse over how to reach one just hours before the open of Asian financial markets.

"It remains an uncertain situation," Mr. Daley said in the CBS interview. "We may have a few stressful days coming up—and stressful for the markets of the world and the American people. But in the end there's no question in my mind the government of America will not default."

"If next week drags on with no apparent progress, the markets would likely become increasingly nervous as time passed," said James DeMasi, chief fixed-income strategist at Stifel Nicolaus & Co. in Baltimore. "But at the beginning of the week, I expect the U.S. government will still be given the benefit of the doubt by investors."

Bond investors still appear to believe a deal will be inked, but others are bracing for volatile markets if the weekend's negotiations don't produce results. Gold prices are starting to react. Uncertainty surrounding the U.S. debt talks is one of the main factors that propelled gold to new record highs recently above $1,600 an ounce.

Kentucky.com...
Congressional and Obama administration officials are hoping to announce a framework for an agreement by 4 p.m. EDT Sunday, and House Republicans planned a members-only conference call for shortly after that. That is before the Asian financial markets open, and lawmakers want to avoid producing bad news that could push those markets down and worry American investors as well.

President Obama ended his Friday speech with an admonition to get the deal done before the Asian markets opened on Sunday.

Okay.......I get it.....or do I? Sometimes it all seems a little too easy doesn't it. The deal WILL get done but the consensus appears that its obvious they are going to announce "some" type of deal on Sunday. Well let's see what happens. It would be interesting if they use this expectation to give us a REAL KABUKI Theater event like the TARP initial vote failure. So stay tuned tonight for the fireworks. I really don't care except if they faill and panic sets in you may get a buy......or a sell hehehe. If they succeed and sell gold and silver you may get a buy.....either way we are setting up for trades gang.

Saturday, July 23, 2011

THIS IS SERIOUS!


I mean it? Really Really SERIOUS! Stop laughing at me. I'm REALLY REALLY mad. I'm not going to budge or sell out my principles. So TAKE THAT! Just to prove I'm serious all of this theater is going to happen over the WEEKEND.....after the stock market closed and before it opens.

Ok Ok enough sarcasm. Apparently our "leaders" have staged a last minute weekend play for the peeps and the MSM to portray them as "adversaries". Look gang, my cynicism has no bounds with these people. The world is literally blowing up around us and they are engaging in this macabre game of faux chess. Its just too much. There are now millions of people suffering in this country alone from the strain on this system with the STRUCTURAL BREAKDOWN of the faux economy we've had the last 30 years. You say faux economy???? FAUX??? Yes an economy that was being structurally destroyed as trade imbalances developed as corporations moved their manufacturing jobs overseas year by year as politicians proclaimed the trade agreements would benefit all of us. Now here is the kicker. While they pulled this multi-decade scam off they needed to create jobs in a sector that could provide a MASSIVE number of jobs to these manufacturing workers. There were basically three sectors created. Defense and Military, Home building sector, and Retail. These areas required money to go into these sectors and that money creation was pure brilliance. So diabolical that even Bernie Madoff looks like a piker.

Trillions of money needed to be created and we used the Housing sector. We all know that the bulk of derivatives were created off of the mortgage debt. A trillion or so in new mortgages were bundled, chopped, diced, and leveraged up to a few HUNDRED TRILLION in derivatives. Then the fun started. Then a game of hot potato ensued until the music stopped. You know the story. However a lot of people are now in the position of believing all we need to do is turn the spigot back on and ouila the game is back on. Sorry this is STRUCTURAL. ALL of those jobs are in China, Mexico, etc. They aren't coming back. ALL of those Home building/mortgage/real estate/commercial Re/ jobs are GONE.....they aren't coming back. Not only that there is another wave about to hit the retail sector and banking sector. THIS is STRUCTURAL.

So enjoy the Faux Theater in D.C. this weekend. As Red says its Kabuki.

Here is a clip below from Marti that deserves a read.....how true

Quotes from Martin Armstrong's "The Sovereign Debt Crisis We Print Bonds Not Money "

The war in Afghanistan cost over $1 trillion. When Ronald Reagan came to office, the National Debt was $1 trillion and that represented two World Wars, Korea, Vietnam, and all the social programs of the New Deal. Politicians spend as they like, take no responsibility, and then want to pass the bill to the people. Is that fair? Where is there any democratic process in this decision? We vote on nothing and the elected representative is subject to lobbyists and party bosses who dictate what they shall vote on if they want party support for the next election.

This sovereign debt crisis has been metastasizing in Europe for the last 15 months ever since the Pi Cycle hit on April 15th, 2010 (2007.15 + 3.14 = 2010.291). The Greek riots began right on cue.

Yes, Greece and France will put up more cash to bailout Greece and this is much like sucking the poison out of a friend from a king brown snake that will succeed in only killing you both.

Until we begin to face up to the fact that we are debt junkies and unless we revise the world monetary system, all we are doing is destroying the strong to help the weak. They never heard of reform. The system is BROKE!

We are addicted to debt and the Primary Dealers are keeping it going.

This whole problem of DEBT stems from the insane proposition that it is LESS inflationary to BORROW rather than to PRINT money. Had we printed the past 30 years instead of borrowing, the debt would be about one-third of what it is today. We live on a credit card and we are using the credit card to also pay the interest without ever making a payment.

You have to understand the political game at foot. You can point to something and say Mr. Politician if you don’t do this NOW, 1,000 people will die next year. Unless there is personal gain out of acting, they will let those people die.

But we have not changed the nature of the beast. We are throwing a sheet over the 800 pound gorilla, but he will figure out how to pull it off soon enough.

The fed ended the $900 billion in their QE2 program but it will embark on a new plan. It has to.

Public government is in a downward spiral and the low does not appear to be due until 2020.

You can chop every program and people will starve on the streets. But guess what! The debt will keep growing until you stop this insane game of borrowing perpetually.

A financial crisis is certainly looming on the horizon. What we undoubtedly face is the continuation of the Sovereign Debt Crisis that is truly an ongoing CONTAGION.

Did anyone notice ALL government have the same debt problem? That means we are dealing with a STRUCTURAL PROBLEM on a global scale!

The SYSTEM of debt is collapsing. This is not unique to any one country, for everyone is going down the drain. We are NOT printing money! It is much worse.

Source: http://www.martinarmstrong.org...

Friday, July 22, 2011

YOU CAN'T QUIT NOW


Too late Ben. You went down this road as predicted three years ago and now you are in the NO TURN LANE with the Semi bearing down on you. Maybe this works for awhile but the ultimate collision of the immoveable object approaches with every passing day. Can you change the equation of E=MC2? Can you make 2+2=5? These are forces that are law. These are laws of nature. Your wife runs up 200K on ten credit cards on you family income of 50K/yr. You have a problem. Presto....problem solved you find another credit card for 20K and you are good to go. You're still driving the 5 Series BMW and still living in the 400K full mortgaged house now worth 250K (provided you can even get an offer). You've kicked the can for another few months and all is good. Unfortunately you will only be in debt an additional 20K in a few months and you will be trying to find another credit card. Its fairly simple. You keep buying those scratch cards everyday for two months hoping to hit that jackpot. Unfortunately this is analagous to what is happening with our current world financial system. Burdened by debt that can never be paid back without a catastrophic default of most of the developed world, plunging us into the abyss of deflation and ruinous GDP collapse. It's simple math its the law of nature and it will be obeyed. It will not be denied, but it will be fought, and it will be stretched to the maximum by the Bernank. HE is the operative for the true power that is navigating this treacherous predicament.

This has been decades in development. Can we escape without some catastrophic conflagration that reduces continents to rubble? Of course we can. Unfortunately the risk of such a Supercycle event does rise astronomically with extreme imbalances. That is one of the tight ropes that the Bernank is trying to walk. The corporate/banker elite are trying to maintain power and control over entire continents while the land the deflationary 747 on an aircraft carrier without a complete crash. Every trick in the book is being implemented including trying to cheat at math. That is why transparency is being tossed out the window. The irony of it all is that trust is essential to healing this crisis. I have mentioned the restoration of CONfidence to make the system work again. CONfidence in our leaders and institutions to do the "right thing" for the good and benefit of the MOST people. Unfortunately the first casualty of the course they embarked on was the TRUTH. Once the informed segment of the masses saw this the grift was in jeopardy as word was spread through different mediums that never existed during the last Great Depression.

Its been an interesting journey to date and my guess is we are still in the very early stages of the ultimate end game. We probably haven't even seen the phoenix that will hopefully rise out of the ashes. Its the ashes part that I worry about but time will tell whether they are figurative ashes or not.

Greek default will be disastrous for the bankers make no mistake and it will be fought to the end. The $XEU touched 144 we could start seeing some interesting Euro moves over the next few weeks. Wait till they realize the implications of a structured default in SPAIN or ITALY ....oooooboy. RISK TRADE ON!......hehehee yeh right. QE on that is for sure.......but when....that is the question. I still like the miners this year. Near term oil may touch 102.5 for a DTO trade. And I still think we are going to get a chance to play another pump of equities. Let's see what Ben can do. gl

Rogers on the dollar here...


http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=9c991fe0-da07-4b5c-85e7-357d3a84e845

Thursday, July 21, 2011

PARADISE THREATENED


Of course there is always the calm before the storm. We've often talked about how relatively benign our medicine has been after the 2008 Crash. Actually it has been a monstrous Bull Market. At least for the ones out there that have equities. Many were left in a pile of dust in early 09 and elected to sit out the Great Casino. That CONfidence will NOT be restored anytime soon. Fool me once shame on you....fool me twice shame on me. Mom and Pop have seen this movie one too many times and know that this is not their daddy's market. These are end-o-days times. We're trying to restore CONfidence to the masses and trying to keep a hundred leaks a week from breaking the dam. Can anyone possibly heal these type of wounds? Not likely.

So how do you play it? NO ONE can guarantee anything in this game but there are some probabilities. One probability that is high is further disruptions and fear increasing. Unless we get a complete crash from a black swan then a series of crisis that are continually being managed will occur. This plays into the fear trade and precious metals. In spite of the efforts of the Central banks to suppress these headline prices on Gold and silver (to protect their fiat confidence) the buyers will continue to gravitate to this safety trade. Miners are a leveraged trade on the metals. IF and its a big IF I am right the miners trade has gone through a significant accumulation phase and is now ready for its next leg up which should be amazing this year. Monetization will continue to try and stem the debt implosion but this is increasingly apparent to many to be only a temporizing measure. So rather than publicize these efforts they will attempt to be more surrepticious until it becomes necessary to proclaim the QE of all QEs will be unleashed. This will have to happen but only after the market AND ECONOMY begin to show the next deflationary cracks. I don't wish for this so save you sighs. There just isn't any other probabilities.....Possibilities?? YES. Probabilities?? NO.

My miner trade is still my focus but the casino is still open just be careful all.

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

KONDRATIEV WAR?


Can the unthinkable happen. Predictions by many experts within the budget sphere of DC have said that we will have to cut the military budget. In fact on this forum I have brought this very issue up on many occaisions trying to illustrate the large proportion of the budget's "discretionary" spending that the Military Industrial Complex compiles. This seems on the surface to be the most likely area that we must begin to reduce. BUT IS IT? It isn't even mentioned in most public debates or on the mainstream media. It is as if it is untouchable.

We have systematically looted our manufacturing base for over 30 years by our current trade policies and are looking down the barrel of a AK47 in almost any direction we turn now to cure our current structural economic ills. Many Americans that follow this believe that we can "fix" our current dilemna by simply balancing our budget....or stopping spending...or not taxing our "job creators"...etc etc etc.

I have also alluded to the importance that the Military Industrial Complex plays in providing a component of manufacturing in a destroyed economy that at this juncture remains paradoxically vital to keeping us from the abyss of depression. Even though this area of our manufacturing economy is highly counterproductive to the long term well-being of a citizenry and healthy economy. Of course a powerfully entrenched lobby has complete and utter control of the politicians when it comes to this industry. So you can forget about it being touched.

What next? Well......now we get to the GRAND SUPERCYCLE and its risks. Could we get the unthinkable? A well-known member of our forum has said unequically no but an ex-CIA (there is no such thing) operative named Robert Baer (George Clooney's character in Syriana) says we might. In fact Baer is sounding some ominous warning bells.

http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/07/201171775828434786.html

Baer claims the Netanyahu is preparing to hit Iran in September. Make no mistake, unless our Military can convince the administration to stop him it will happen. Netanyahu is under intense pressure from within his own security apparatus.Baer was especially impressed by the unprecedented warning about Netanyahu's plans by former Mossad chief Meir Dagan. Dagan left the Israeli intelligence agency in September 2010. Two months ago, he predicted that Israel would attack and said that doing so would be "the stupidest thing" he could imagine. According to Haaretz:

When asked about what would happen in the aftermath of an Israeli attack Dagan said that: "It will be followed by a war with Iran. It is the kind of thing where we know how it starts, but not how it will end."

The Iranians have the capability to fire rockets at Israel for a period of months, and Hizbollah could fire tens of thousands of grad rockets and hundreds of long-range missiles, he said.
According to Ben Caspit of the Israeli daily Maariv, Dagan's blasts at Israel's political leadership are significant not only because Mossad chiefs, in office or retired, traditionally have kept their lips sealed, but also because Dagan is very conservative on security matters.
Caspit writes that Dagan is "one of the most rightwing militant people ever born here. ... When this man says that the leadership has no vision and is irresponsible, we should stop sleeping soundly at night".
Dagan describes the current Israeli government as "dangerous and irresponsible" and views speaking out against Netanyahu as his patriotic duty.

There would be global repercussions that are potentially catastrophic for our military and Israel. I think this is saber rattling. I repeat I believe this is saber rattling but the reason I bring this up is the source and the fact it would most certainly get Obama reelected. Then you have this little tidbit arising that gives the entire story plausability.....Iran forming an Oil Bourse backed by China and others...
http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/183031/20110719/iran-opens-oil-bourse-harbinger-of-trouble-for-new-york-and-london.htm

Market play:

We are currently in a takedown of the miners to shakeout the new weak longs. I'll provide what I think are key buy points. on SLW 33.80. look for an intraday tail on EXK within the next 7 trading days to pick up at 8.98....ANV watch a tail touch of sub 35...AG tail touch sub 21. GPL 3.38... SSRI tail touch sub 27. These are my suggestions for your buys. If they play the flush game these areas should be perfect for the flush. Here is the caveate....if you don't have a good core left then take weakness during the next two days to reestablish a position in your favs. We may only get a one or two day takedown.....also a HIGH probablility. My core is very small here and I will add some of these on weakness before the wish list numbers are achieved as I did today. Caution as always and remember CASH is king in this chop shop.


from goldseek today

does the HUI BELOW look like a bubble????????????


bottom chart is off turds commentors

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

TOTO I'M SCARED


Maybe we are pretending that we are still in Kansas but we are not even close anymore. We crossed that line a long time ago. After 2008 a new paradigm had to be born and the choices were bad and very bad. Time may tell which one was chosen or it may always be debated just as the choices during the Great Depression are still debated today. I am not going to pretend that I have the answers but there are certain facts that are self-evident. There is a major loss of CONfidence that is ebbing with every manipulative lie that leaks into the daily conscience of the American People. I use "American People" because the rest of the world at least until now was much better informed than our public was on how the international banking cartel ruled the world. Unfortunately its a little late for us to do a lot about the destruction of the rules and regulations that got us to this destructive part of our young democracy. We are most likely in the end-o-days for many of the excesses that we have enjoyed for decades. Our consumption of 25% of the world's yearly oil usage must and will come to an end. The wars and global manipulation to keep the prices here cheap will be changing out of necessity during the next decades. This will most likely be positive as it forces us to adapt to newer technologies using renewable sources of energy including conservation measures that were always available. These are nature's ways of mandating change.

Unfortunately there are still humans at the helm of this great ship and that always means that the changes will be unpredictable in their implementation. So don't expect a smooth transition to the land of OZ. It could be a bumpy ride. The old standards are not going to go without a fight. Large fossil fuel oil corporations have a strangle-hold on the politicians and that usually means that nature has to over-ride some fairly strong resistance. It will. Unfortunately for us that may come with a degree of strife. As the deflationary wave sets in across the global landscape one of the first elements that will be effected is energy consumption. You are already seeing the effects in the Middle East. The uprisings across the region now are economic in origin and they are going to only worsen as the Grand Supercycle flattens the region. Since the region has always been on the brink of disaster it shouldn't be much longer before one or more of these social media revolutions spills over into some super power conflicts. After all these countries are proxies for the super powers as they jockey for the ultimate blood of power that flows through this region. For years now we've controlled virtually every government in that region. It has come at a heavy price for our reputation within the region. None of the parties involved trust us any longer and the tenuous balance of power is only one nuke away from chaos.

I have a feeling the match that starts the fire will come from this region. We are in a precarious economic position and nothing galvanizes power in stressed populations than a major outbreak of hostilities and the resultant nationalism. A lot of political ills can be cured. Full employment is certainly a by-product.

Hopefully we dodge the ultimate exchange but eventually the piper is going to have to be paid for years of excesses and this Super-Cycle will not be denied.

I think what makes me feel uncomfortable with out current outlook is how easily manipulated the uninformed/misinformed public here is. The steady diet of news on the Royal couple and the Casey Anthony story dominate the news and perform a lobotomy on the masses. So escaping the ultimate cleaning will probably not be possible.

For the doubters on how Gold and Silver will perform just look what turmoil, doubt, and fear are doing to the trade now. I still like the miners for the rest of the year but I intend to try and trade them. As usual I cannot close without mentioning the EURO currency. Its on the edge and its about to fall. Enjoy the day. gl to all.

Monday, July 18, 2011

ITS ALL ABOUT THE BANKS


Overnite cries of Eurobank crisis have roiled the markets and pushed gold and silver higher. Gold just crossed the magical $1600 dollar mark in overseas trading. Oh the horror of it all as fear permeates the safe haven trade. Don't worry though. The rabbits will start to come out before the U.S. markets open and hope will be restored......or it won't. At least for awhile. Nice way to keep the rates low on its own treasuries as the bond vigilantes attack the Eurozone. Maybe Ben feels this could work for us...at least for awhile. One thing is certain the EUR/USD trade feels very weak right now. I hope you have a lot of EUO for the ride down.

Ben has a problem right now as he walks the proverbial tightrope over the alligators. They are waiting for the slip and they want to tear some fresh meat apart. World liquidity is in such a fragile condition now that if Ben hits the commods with another phoney corn report or another margin raise you could see some serious liquidity issues start in with the cascade of calls.

I don't like this one bit. I'm getting scared (actually it is a little frightening), but if we get the predicted breakdown with some nice fear we could get another reboot to buy the miners on a pullback. Right now we have the $HUI forming a nice breakout of resistance so just let your core ride. We aren't overbought yet and the miners should chase gold to the 1700 level.

Whatever happens this week it promises to be a thrill. Lets enjoy the trade and I hope all of you are getting a good nights rest and will be drinking your coffee while you watch the mornings fireworks. PSLV PHYS is still in play this year. gl all and I hope Ben gets across the river. I'm pullin' for him.

Saturday, July 16, 2011

THE FACE OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION


You are allowed to call it a recession. You are allowed to call this a recovery. You may want to even call this prosperity. Maybe a "buying opportunity" would be your cup of tea. But for tens of millions of Americans and hundreds of millions worldwide this is a Depression. NO Jobs and crushing prices of essentials like food and medical services are beginning to take their toll. I realize that you don't want to hear doom and gloom but this is the reality of bad choices made decades ago for the benefit of a few.......the "job creators". You know which ones I am talking about. The people that are in charge of small businesses.......hehehe. Right.......sure. This entire crises has NOTHING to do with small businesses and EVERYTHING to do with the preservation of control by the Large corporate oligarchy. It has been a sytematic plundering of this country's treasury and future by a handful of corporations for the benefit of a few. When its over and it is over.....we will no longer be the empire of the world with 800 military bases in over 125 countries. We will no longer be the enforcing arm that runs the world for the international cartel. They will have moved on to a group of governments where less emphasis is placed on an aging small population like the United States. We will be relagated to the proverbial scrap heap of ex-empires like Greece, Rome, Spain, France, and England.

I remember watching the transformation of this country in the 80s as we shifted into this last phase of the Grand Supercycle. Suddenly I began to notice incredible shifts in the balance of compensation in our large corporation CEOs. We had always had the creation of incredible wealth with idividual creativity and innovation. But in the 80s a new breed began to come to the fore...the corporate pirate ...and they were quite public in accepting their laurels. They would gain control of a corporation had been in existence for generations. There were actual playbooks created with consultants that were hired to assist the CEOs. Their compensations climbed exponentially from about 20:1 to their average company worker to a peak in the mid 2005 of about 350:1. Some companies obviously were well over 2000:1.

In the late 80s I remember watching the financial media applaud the announcement of Michael Eisner's compensation at Disney. He began to take hundreds of millions out of the company. I was stunned that in the 80s after coming out of the pain of the 70s and early 80s a man that had taken over a beacon of entertainment and creativity that had started in the Great Depression of the 30s could be taking that much capital out of a company that he had nothing to do with for most of the company's existence. I remember the avuncular Walt Disney's soothing voice on Sunday nights introducing his latest show and/or development. I was now looking at a different breed of animal. The corporate carnivore. A natural evolution? Perhaps. But it was telling me that a storm was on the horizon. It wouldn't be long either. Soon this playbook of systematic corporate raiding spread across the entire corporate structure. All of the boardrooms were stacked.......and the game was over for the stockholders.

The late 90s and 2000s were just a matter of creating enough liquidity to keep the game going. They did this through the creation of derivatives and almost wholly ran them off of real estate. It provided the last gasp for a dying economy with jobs and fast cash for a collapsing manufacturing infrastructure that was being sold overseas...mostly to China. Once the plundering of the factory base was accomplished and 5000 mergers and aquisitions had been completed.....the ponzi was through and thousands of Michael Eisners had been created. Our three branches of government had been totally coopted and the game was over.

Now the structural disaster created is apparent in all of its splendor. NO jobs....NO factories...No educational system....just DEBT. The party is over and now the bill comes. The five active wars we are fighting right now that continue to drain your treasury aren't even on the table right now with the "press" or the politicians. So you see.....this Depression is in its infancy. The five steps of dying by Kubler Ross are still in step 1.........DENIAL. gl I hope Walt Disney is rolling over in his grave.


from metals rport

Friday, July 15, 2011

BEHOLD A RED DRAGON


And the beast was hungry. It was going to be satiated and its sumptuous feast was to be eaten before August 2. Sometime in the next few weeks we will be getting a tradeable bottom. Start getting your speculative list ready. The beast must be fed and Ben will have to gun the risk trade. I still like the miners and PMs but from a speculative standpoint the Chinese market looks very tasty at the current levels as funny money will have to enter back into their powerhouse. SCEI is worth a look here for a stretch. It operates as a third party commercial producer and distributor of coal-water slurry fuel (CWSF) in the People’s Republic of China. The company’s CWSF products are primarily used in boilers and furnaces to generate steam and heat for residential and industrial applications. It sells its products directly to various customers, including industrial, commercial, residential, and government organizations.

Another destroyed Chinese stock for a look-see is JASO. It engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of photovoltaic solar cells and solar products, which convert sunlight into electricity in the People's Republic of China. The company’s principal products include monocrystalline and multicrystalline solar cells, as well as various solar modules. It also provides silicon wafer and solar cell processing services. This sector is destroyed and blood is in the water. STP is another solar casualty that we've played before and remains in a pool of blood.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/07/13/whats-up-with-solar.aspx

BCON is a little closer to home (USA) and may be worth a sniff. It's a tiny company that is involved in storing energy for solar and wind systems. Beacon Power Corporation, a development stage company, engages in the development and commercialization of flywheel energy storage systems to supply frequency regulation services to the electricity grid in North America. Its flywheel technology stores and recycles energy on an emissions-free basis; and provides frequency regulation and energy balancing services for the electricity grid, utilities, and distributed generation and renewable energy markets.

These are to be looked at as high risk and do your own DD. I own NONE of these at the time of this post. I plan on taking small positions only. My attention is still on the miners and their trade. Keep your cash high again here but nibble on pullbacks for trades. SSRI SLW EXK AG if you get the chance. gl

Thursday, July 14, 2011

LET'S WORK TOGETHER


"When we remember we are all mad, the mysteries disappear and life stands explained."
Mark Twain

This is all very serious business we are engaged in. We are on the verge of a precipice. Things can get very bad very quick. I won't be responsible for what happens next. What occurs next will be worse than what happened before. OK OK that's enough nonsense. Its all nonsense. That is my point. Its all for your public consumption. These men that we wasted a couple of our hours voting for last November meet daily to receive their talking points from their staffs and promptly walk out into the cameras to spew whatever they were programmed to say.

From the very beginning this entire process was decided. There will be a debt limit increase. Of course first there has to be an appearance of two sides. Remember. Republipuke and Demidumb. Right and left. Conservative and liberal. You know. You hate one of them. How can you forget? That's right. You hate um. Remember that when your side slips it in the back door maybe it won't feel so bad. Seriously....that's how it works. Its a slight of hand and it works everytime on you. Its just that you still haven't figured it out. After they are through with you they sit around and smoke cigarettes and drink good bourbon while they smile knowingly at how easy it was. Sure sports fans there is a handicap on whether the debt ceiling is not raised. 1 in 1 million. Of course the media is constantly monitoring this historic vote. They know how "important" the outcome is.

Ultimately economic forces will decide the outcome of this entire farce. We will monetize and monetize and monetize........and it will fail. We will endure in the near term some very painful stagflation. Of course they will pull every trick they can to control the prices of these essential commodities but these tricks will fail also. Watch how quickly they begin to fail when they are used. Raising margins on the commods are having less and less impact. The last oil reserves move was so pathetic they may not even try it again. We're in trouble as a country. There is a part of me that feels like the two guys in the picture. I protested those two unnecessary wars. I knew they were fraudulent. They had NOTHING to do with 9/11....but the masses cheered. Why should I have to take a social security cut? Why should I have to take a medicare cut? Wait until tens of millions are faced with these ACTUAL CHOICES. Its coming. You really don't believe it.....but you're going to be faced with NO CHOICES. It will be imposed.

The Casino is open. The lights are on. As discussed before the boyz wanted you out of the PM trade. As usual they extended the chop until you folded your table and took your chips off the table. Thats the game. Now they are taking it up. HL GPL still cheap. Have fun. gl

Wednesday, July 13, 2011

WALKING THE FINE LINE


What does Ben have to do to maintain a Ponzi scheme? Everyday he has to check to see which country just blew up due to his imported stagflation in food and essential prices. Especially food. In many countries half of the family income goes to food. There is no room to spare if the price of a a staple like rice shoots up 50%. Instantaneously they are unable to support their family with the necessary calories. They aren't provided with food stamps in many of these countries. Without a currency the vendors will simply not deliver. Pressures on the government to provide basic sustinence without having a printing press will become unmanageable. A feedback cycle of political unrest with public disatisfaction will acccelerate. Ben knows this is his limiting factor with his monetization and he knows that his game is playing out into the late innings now.

Look at gold and silver today. They are blinking yellow for the game. The interesting numbers are on oil. Notice that the input costs of oil are devastating for all aspects of the costs of essentials. So as much as the ponzimasters hate gold and silver exposing their flanks....oil gives them the actual knife to the throat. If they can tip toe through the oil spike and levitate the market (CONfidence) then they can fulfill keeping the game alive this year until bonus season is achieved. Many posters on message boards gleefully proclaim they want to see the market collapse to virtually zero. You had better hope this entire game does not crash. Reality will be a much more sober experience than you can imagine. Most of you are not prepared for the reality this would impose. gl



Tuesday, July 12, 2011

WE'VE BEEN SAVED......AGAIN


With futures dipping to a low of down 168 early this morning and the EURO crashing a rabbit had to be pulled so ouila the ECB begins to buy bonds?? Did I hear that right? Well did they really?? HA! Don't bet on it. But it put a stop to the slide momentarily. Futures rebounded and the EURO stabilized. Yup.....that's the market you're in now. Driven my rumor and fear. Get ready to trade the volatility for awhile. At least until the be enchilada is brought in by Uncle Ben. You know what I'm talking about.......QE3. We need it. We want it. We are free marketeers.

The desperate attempts to keep this game alive is gaining a life of its own. The life blood of any financial ponzi is its liquidity and right now they are scrambling as the CONfidence is being sucked right out of the system. The talking heads are racing to put the best face forward on this to keep this blood flowing but the contagian is starting to overwhelm the lies.

How long have we got? I still maintain they have plenty of rabbits. Short and Inermediate term the EURO looks weak. I think we see 130 break on the EURO this summer and maybe 120 before they hold it. EUO makes a nice bet still.

Look for some bounces to play today ......energy is due. This is end-o-days stuff gang. Its not gonna get any better for a long time.

Monday, July 11, 2011

WINTER'S COMING


Kondratieff Winter....K Wave .......Kress Cycle....P3......Megasupercycle deflationary wave. You name it whatever you like. It's essentially an imbalance of debt of historic proportions that has developed and its ultimate outcome is already written in economic stone. It wants your blood. It wants a lot of blood. Its a virtual growing parasitic organism that has grown on the corpse of the world's free world. It is a parasite so it does not want to kill its host so its attempting to adapt and maintain the heart of its host to continue to pump its precious blood. Unfortunately the host is on its last leg and the revelations in Italy over the increase in its debt rates is putting an additional strain on the patient. Of course death can be postponed with more transfusions and I have no doubt this will occur. But with the current Kabuki theater going on in Congress in the U.S. it may behoove the PTB to inject a little fear and dollar strengthening in the near term. Gold may continue to move up even though the dollar strengthens which occurred during a similar fear move last year during the Eurozone disruptions. We're getting late in this game gang and the ponzi is encountering increasing difficulty with sentiment. You can push many aspects of their measurements by manipulations but ultimately a stalemate is being reached in this long in the tooth game. Jobs are rolling over. CONfidence is rolling with it. Without confidence you have NOTHING. All of you be careful, we are entering into a zone that can get very volatile quickly. I still like EUO and gold. But this too can roll over. Enjoy the week it should be another week to trade.

Obama is going to get the extension of the debt limit.....MAKE NO MISTAKE. This will goose the market and Precious metals. A little fear will give the pols some cover. The republipukes are NOT going to stand in the way. Its all kabuki theater. You wanna see instant depression just pull the "There will be no extension of the debt level". hahahaha...... Seriously? Who do you think pulls that string. Not those two bit graft artists. gl all....watch Europe though.....that is going to keep things nervous

Saturday, July 9, 2011

WE'VE GOT SOME JOBS


I have a feeling that there may be a couple of problems ahead for "the plan". First, there is NO plan. Second there is no plan. So what is going to happen? Well I think that we are about to experience a complete and utter collapse. That is usually what happens when a bus full of gasoline is rolling down a road and about to go off a cliff. What else can you call it? THERE ARE NO JOBS. THERE WILL BE NO JOBS. Remember when Madoff was discovered to be a ponzi. On the message boards the first questions asked by many people were "Where is the money?" No one could comprehend that a 56 Billion dollar fund had NO MONEY. They thought he had hid most of it. They could not comprehend the simplicity of the math of a ponzi and how it WORKS. You see.....things that appear very complex to the outside world of a ponzi are usually relatively elemental. Its just simple math..... There was ZERO money. NADA! NONE! Bernie simply maintained his vast yearly returns by paying out to the "lucky" ones that redeemed before the unlucky lower bigger part of his pyramid.....until he ran out of money.

This is where we are today. We've run out of time on the ponzi. We've milked the capital from the world until the debt has reached a state that we can't pay out anymore interest on it. We are just in the process of letting the bankers pick the carcasses of the rotting carrion. No one can make a move for fear the music will stop again and they will lose their seat. The banks.....big...small....medium...all refuse to lend any money that isn't virtually guaranteed because they know the music is about to stop. They know the bus is running again towards the cliff. The big investment banks are still playing their games as fast as possible until the music finally quits. Hell.....they would front run their grandmas right now for a sawbuck. The promised transparency and restored confidence never came. The investment community is locked and loaded all right, but the gun is aimed at their own head. Its just a matter of time and this whole enchilada blows. Even Joe Blow on the street senses the whole charade is nearing the end. You can't put this genie back in, but they're gonna pretend to keep trying however.

The job losses are structural. You've read that here as long as two years ago...now you are hearing it more an more in the mainstream media. Sturctural job losses cannot be repaired by monetization of the debt. Structural job losses as an example are the millions of jobs in construction created by hot money ginning up phony high home prices and mortgage fraud. This entire scheme was conducted with the government aiding and abetting the industry sector and the bankers financing it. It will NOT be coming back for decades. There were millions of jobs created without any educational backround in this sector. They are gone. Meanwhile self sustaining industries were allowed to be shipped factory by factory durning those housing boom years to other countries. THEY are gone. THAT is structural. The skilled workers in those industries are gone. They are in aisle 2 at Home Depot. They are now 53 y/o and don't even know how to use a digital tool and dye machine.

Didn't you wonder when the CNBS talking heads bragged in the boom boom years about how the weighting of the financials in the SnP was over 40% that something was desperately wrong with our country? Seriously?? 40% of the SnP was FINANCIALS! That had to send alarm bells off that we were dying as a country.....but it didn't. No one even blinked.

Its going to take a much longer time with a true cleaning and reset of government policy and a restoration of CONFIDENCE. REAL CONFIDENCE. That is only brought about by a country that is governed by its people. Not a facade of corporatocracy/fascism. This will have to happen and it will take years for this trust to be restored. Sometimes we have to hit bottom to see the light and I am afraid we are going to be doing just that. One way or another this mess will have to be cleaned up. How and when it takes place is up for debate but one way or another the can kicking is going to get harder and harder. Ladies and gents you are witnessing history and the "old way" of "fixing" the game is about to meet a cleaner. gl this weekend

Friday, July 8, 2011

I'M STUNNED!


The most common quote on the Squawk Box panel after the Job's report. All of our Fed pollyanna panelist were stunned when the 18000 number was announced. Not only this number but the downgrades to previous months were also slipped in. Yes Houston we have a problem. Of course "doom and gloomers" have been castigated for saying that "things are bad" and "getting worse" for quite sometime. Even though many/most data points have supported this....the market has risen. These type of numbers are hard to rip into a positive especially after a 1000 pt DOW straight up move. At least now you can understand why the market was moved up prior to these numbers. The question is WHAT NEXT? Are we back on the big slide down to retest lows? Should you be on the short bus for the cashola? Gold and Silver are up premarket in anticipation of the pig money printing/stimulus sure to come. I think this also puts the current "susterity negotiations" into flux. It's going to be hard for the republipukes to hold to austerity with the country collapsing and the demidumbs will have renewed wind behind their side to push the pork. Of course I am in the camp the whole game is rigged already so whatever was going to happen is already decided. If you noticed the 800lb gorilla in the room that is NEVER even mentioned to cut is the Military Industrial complex with it two WARS and 800 military bases in 125 countries. BTW can you imagine bring home the boys into this economy. I wonder what might happen to the POLS. Of course once the peeps start to get restless the troops will have something to do when they come back home.

Watch the behavior of gold today. If we stay bullish then we have convoy ahead. This game is just hetting started on this run. Its money printing gang. MONEY MONEY MONEY. gl all

Thursday, July 7, 2011

NEW GAME IN TOWN ?


The multi-month shorting of the miner's complex appears to be ending. Don't get too excited but you have to play the hand you are dealt. If this was too much for your heart then go ahead and take some profit. Otherwise you run with the big dogs until the game changes. Right now it looks like Silver won't start get really beaten up until it crosses the 40 resistance band. If we get a nice beatdown there back to 36 then you may want to take a reload. Many of these miners should have another 50 to 75% run in them this year. Stocks like GPL SLW SSRI EXK SVM RIC are included in this subset. GFI EGO HL represent safer but with less upside potential to play. The latter three "usually" give you nice swing trades on these multi-month bull moves. That is assuming we are in a multi-month bull move.

Be aware that the usual tree shaking of the weak hands is SURE to occur and we have had a nice run here so it could begin within the next day or two. I hope so. If it does I'll readd some that I took profit on the past two days. The ANV volume spike marking its low was classic as the big boyz covered their shorts. Most of the miners had more subtle bottoms marked. I still have plaently of cash in case I'm wrong. I won't test the ponzi here with the end of QE proclaimed. It could be a very rocky ride ahead and I don't want to miss any panic selling.

The Eurozone should really start getting warm over the next few weeks. Even the PTB can't stop the PIGGS. The Europeans are much more aware of what the game is than the
self-proclaimed "enlightened and free" American sheeple. The Europeans have had this game played on them for centuries. There nations have been destroyed by TWO World Wars. They know who is pulling the levers. They also know that going to the streets is their only recourse. Their unions WILL strike. So I maintain that this summer and next will be highly volatile for the Eurozone collapse. As long as we pump the Casey Anthonies and the DSKs and the Visit to Canada nightly by the Royal anorexics I feel we can be placated a while longer.

My feeling now is all large pullbacks in the PMs and Miners will be brief and bought furiously from now on out. Strap in for the ride now. BTW the technical damage to the Euro today was fatal. gl all.


I hope you take the time to listen to the second half of Keiser interview on Europe

Wednesday, July 6, 2011

U.S. DOWNGRADED TO JUNK!


Nahh...but it otta be. Everyone else was downgraded to junk status today. Obviously the PTB are wanting to get the process moving or they wouldn't have unleashed their dogs (the ratings agencies) on Portugal. Gold is finally starting to move a little after being flat most of the morning. I guess the fear trade will have some life in it at the opening.

Santelli had a great rant today. It reminded me of the old question if a tree falls in a forest and there is no one there to listen then does is make a noise. He spoke from the heart and it was all solid common sense stuff. SO OF COURSE NO ONE LISTENED. He was frustrated of course. You shouldn't be. This is a ship the size of continent and its NOT gonna turn around. Its headed for the Iceberg and there is NO stopping it. This is the boom bust cycle of SEVERAL lifetimes coming. Maybe the boom bust cycle of ALL time. No avoiding this one. Even the dipchits that have had their heads stuck in the sand and have sucked up the koolaid for years know something is wrong. I remember talking with a friend of mine in the early eighties when Reagan began breaking the bank on the budget and he said then that the debt didn't really matter. I argued and argued.....deaf ears. Watta dumbass....or was he just hearing what he wanted to hear. Either way he betrayed his country.

Still a little under the weather but I'm holding my mining core AG SLW SSRI ANV GFI EGO EXK GPL and several others. ALSO PLSV PHYS EUO YCS. THIS GAME IS JUST STARTING. gl

from Dan Norcini

Tuesday, July 5, 2011

WHAT'S THE NEXT RABBIT?



Surely you must appreciate a beautiful beatdown of commodities. The silver beatdown. The oil reserves release and beatdown. The Corn report and beatdown. Only the best for our masters of the universe.

Unfortunately my weekend was spent recuperating from an illness but at least some of my time was productive. During my illness I managed to spend some time with three separate Corn producers that all said the same. The corn crop is a DISASTER. Yet the report stated it was an excellent plant. The eyewitness reports of one of producers was in IOWA Minnesota and Missouri.... the other producer was Illinois. The Illinois producer barely got his crop in but many of his friends have had trouble. So how could this report be so far off?

We already know that silver is totally manipulate as is gold. Time is on your side. This is all a stall tactic that is playing out. Eventually the market will win out.

Once I get back on my feet in a day or two I should be trading again. Hope you all had a great holiday. gl

Trying to catch up ...maybe this will tell you what's going to happen..

http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2011/07/stunning-plunge-in-comex-commercial-gold-net-short-futures.html

Saturday, July 2, 2011

HOW LONG CAN IT GO ON?


Can the illusion of prosperity with burdgeoning debt continue? Will the market continue to levitate in spite of obvious sinking structural economic shocks? The answer to us as investors lies somewhere in the Matrix. If your are trying to ascertain which pattern we are in right now in the market and how it fits which cycle theory then good luck to you. The Matrix is way more clever than you are and is making sure that its patterns are disguised. Did you enjoy last week? I bet you did. The market in a matter of five days completely takes back all of its losses for the past month. Not even one intraday pullback for the bears to cover. Trap the shorts and slaughter them like the dogs they are. Wait...I need to be careful there I have shorts. Anyway when you see that kind of action you can only marvel at just how desperate the current situation is for the ponzi. Essentially the primary dealers are carving the remaining flesh off the unwashed hedges and retail traders that have survived the slaughter up to this point. In hindsight it is fairly simple but seeing is believing. Pull the shorts in with some enticing patterns and breaks of key levels of support. Let the MSM shills play the music and oiula you have a toxic brew for the shorts created. The question at this point is have the taken out enough shorts that they have to start cranking the market down or do they continue to ramp the shorts next week until the blood is so thick that only the most masochistic will short the SnP. Only the Algos know.

I discussed with you last week that the market was on the brink of a serious collapse unless Ben called in the levers. He did.... in spades. But more interestingly did you notice how he ramped the market and simultaneously managed to keep the lid on commodity prices and PMs. THAT my friends is true power. The beatdown of commods started last week with the release of the oil reserves. That got the trade liquidation game going as they scrambled to cover margins. Just as they got the markets rolling again ....the boyz come out with the dubious report on the corn crop......once again crushing traders and killing the margins. What a slaughter for the traders that can't handle the leverage. No problem for the big boyz. It buys the boyz some time by bringing some slight relief to food prices. My guess is they try another trick or two on food prices this summer. Can't let the peeps bellies go empty. That's when the trouble really gets rolling.

One more thing before you go out and celebrate our birthday. July AND August are hot months and you better not count out Europe yet. There are still some fireworks coming over there during the next few weeks. It isn't over. Watch France.

http://www.10sigma.com/files/Borrowing%20from%20the%20Rich%2006-30-2011.pdf


Friday, July 1, 2011

LET'S CELEBRATE!!


This is time for fireworks and celebration. It's our nations birthday. We have a lot to be grateful for so DON'T forget it. We managed to make it this for without imploding completely. Who knows??? We might make it another 250 years. We're gonna have to change some things though. Somewhere along the way we managed to really screw up. We stopped worrying about what was best for the good of the most and only what was good for us as individuals. We heard what we wanted to hear. We let ourselves be hypnotized by the charletons. Now we have over 900 military bases in over 125 countries and we still delude ourselves into making an excuse why they are necessary. We actually are talking austerity in this country without addressing this 800lb gorilla in the room. We just wave a flag everytime the issue comes up and back into the corner to throw grenades at "discretionary" budget Items like corporate Jets. Don't get me wrong, corporate Jet subsidies are absurd but guess what....the manufactures and people employed by the industry will argue they aren't. That's the trouble. Every subsidized industry has its paid lobbyist greasing the palm of the pols in DC. What chance does the average Joe have? Our allocation of precious resources has now become a grab bag for lobbyist. They dictate virtually every item in the budget. Of course guess which group controls it all.....the bankers of course.

So don't ruin your birthday celebration this weekend. It's all ok. The casino lights are still on and we are painting you a great 4th party tape. Its all gonna be fine. I hope that you get what you want in the next election. I'm sure we'll have some swell candidates for us to select from. A red one and a blue one. One will be conservative and one will be a liberal. One will be right and one will be left. You may not be in love with the one you vote for but you damn well know you don't want that other SOB. That's the game. Really! That's it.

Don't forget to accumulate your rounds and play the numbers.