Thursday, September 8, 2011
This will be the last post. I want to thank all of you for the time that you have contributed and hope that in some part this blog helped you to get through a treacherous time in your lives. You were like family and I truly will miss all of you but times will become increasingly difficult and my family and work demands my time. gl to all of you...
Posted by kliguy38 at 10:37 PM
Wednesday, September 7, 2011
There's confusion....or something like that. Leave it to the Central Banks to create another moral hazard. This is getting complicated.....and I like it. Think about the Swisse move. Pure genius unless you are a Swisse. Let me correct that, unless you are not a Swisse Multinational Corporation. The attempt by the Swiss was to make their exports more competitive and prevent an overvaluation of their currency since it had become a "safe haven". Now to the meat of the commentary.....The move ostensibly helped to bring down the Swisse but it also helps to SUPPORT the Euro too since the Swisse are buying the Euro peg. Nobody talking about that are they. BUT what was more interesting was the attack on GOLD right after the dastardly currency manipulation by the Central Banks. In the middle of a slow overnight market they sell 7000 contracts in a nanosecond on the market. WHOOOOOPS...that made some margins choke and puke. BUT WHY?? To hold the price of gold down? Perhaps....but I think it is extremely weak to believe that is going to do much beyond a couple of days. NO....I think all it did was try and stem a monster move by Gold in the face of the Swiss removing the Swisse Franc as a "safe haven". It was really just an attempt to decouple the thought process from the investing public that GOLD IS A SAFE HAVEN. I'll repeat...it was to keep the phrase GOLD IS A SAFE HAVEN from being talked or THOUGHT about by the sheeple. CNBS lately has been having an inordinate number of talking heads vocalizing (and laughing) that gold is NOT a safe haven...in fact it is anything BUT a safe haven. I've heard that so frequently over the last couple of months that I am now beginning to see WHY this pattern had developed. Now that the Swisse took out the franc as a "safe haven" its very obvious that this has been anticipated and the need to kick the legs out of the "safe haven of gold" needed to be attempted with this blitz of experts repeating this mantra. Of course that means that they disseminate these talking points through their primary dealers well in advance so never assume that these repetitive talking points are accidental. Look for continued volatility going out now in Precious Metals but use this to accumulate on weakness. Its a game and you are pawns. Just don't be dupes. BTW under the cover of "smoke" the boyz stole your miner shares cheap this morning. While you were watching the bleeding in gold they were grabbing shares of the miners.
To the picture above today. Nice protests huh? 450 thousand protesters! Must be some Italian mob..... nope.... Thats Israel. That's right. Perhaps the most aware populace on the globe. So what are they protesting? hehehehe.... That's right the bankers. Dontcha love it.
Posted by kliguy38 at 8:31 PM
Tuesday, September 6, 2011
This may be a time to ACT LIKE A PIG. No I don't mean to get greedy...well not TOO greedy...maybe a little greedy. Hiding in the water may work but the boyz are back and these guys know what to do with a wanker like you. They'll put sauce on you and barbeque you. We are entering a traditionally strong seasonal period for PMs and the miners. I am suggesting that we could be headed into a storm for the miners. This trade has been struggeling for the last six months and has made little headway as the hedges have beaten it into submission. They accomplish several purposes by doing this. They keep the leveraged beta players crushed in this trade while they accumulate their shares. This allows them to build positions of strength while they kick out the weak hands onto the curb choking and puking on their worthless expired options. Overtime a flat or down trade creates a lot of disenchantment for traders and the miners have been NO exception. They've made an excellent trade for some of us this year but have wrought misery for others that missed the swings. If you exert enough pain most traders eventually give up and this is exactly what this sector has produced this year.
I cannot tell you short term that the miners are the place to be but I think you have to look at them closely right now. They have broken significant resistance and held on the $HUI. Being out of this trade now is potentially a costly miss. I suggest that you buy a basket of miners here and hold on to your core for then next few months. Add on weakness and HOLD ON. I trade these aggressively but I am going to be careful to try NOT to trade out of my core unless oversold becomes extreme. gl all this game is getting into the "we play for keeps" innings and a lot of very strange volatility is going to come into play.
Posted by kliguy38 at 9:28 PM
Monday, September 5, 2011
Gravity that is. RIGHT now its pull is an overwhelming force that needs to obey its law of physics. Levitation is a trick...NOT a law of physics. Now the law of nature is exerting its force and it must be obeyed. Now, having stated the obvious let's look where things are. I'll use my dyslexia to abbreviate and move on. Germany and the Eurozone is the whole ball of wax. I'll let you know a little secret. Germany is going to be a sacrificial lamb for the Eurobanks. They don't care one iota about the Germans and only want to suck the last drop of blood from them to help recapitalize their banks....ie to hold up the bondholders (themselves). Actually it is no different from what is going on here. We are the host and the bankers are the parasite. A good parasite host relationship exists when the parasite can derive the maximum sustinence from the host (eg. U.S., Ger., Russia, France etc.) without destroying the host. The bankers are not just a highly developed parasite....they are the ULTIMATE parasite.
We are not going to see an "over the cliff" episode here. Hopefully we will get an opportunity to enter some more longs in the miner's trade if a significant pullback occurs. If the overall market pulls back in the next few weeks to a bottom such as 1050 or less I know I'll be looking for long trades to enter to ride for a few months. NOTE ..A FEW MONTHS. Not just miners but some others like S, SGY, HERO, ATPG, WPRT, etc.
Right now the fear trade has been working with gold and silver. Silver has more potential the rest of this year AND so do the miners. I still like EXK AG SVM RCI SSRI SLW. We're in a trading war so play the swings and hope for some blood. REMEMBER you need a core. This trade WILL run off and leave you during the next two months. It has left me before so hold that core and hope you get to add to it on a nice pullback.
The Euro is flirting with breaking 140. That has been an exhausting trade with EUO...but i believe they are about to let it go.
Big week ahead in Germany with the German Court decision on the bailout. Don't worry they are bought and paid for like our Court is so they should OK it. Look for Merkel to get over-run by a mob when she sell out her country. This game is getting to the nuclear stage so hang on.
Remember how many times I have repeated CONfidence as the primary driver of all of these manipulations. Now you are hearing it virtually every hour in the commentary on the MSM. It has become a mantra for the talking heads. Too bad they just can't wrap their arms around what REALLY restores confidence. It isn't the "good ol boy" system. It isn't the "business as usual". It isn't "too big to fail" so lets rape the public instead. It isn't about catch phrases and destroying the constitution with threats of fear and false flags. It is about integrity and ethics. These are simple concepts that "they" have NO CLUE about and therefore WE are screwed and so are THEY. gl
Posted by kliguy38 at 9:20 PM
Thursday, September 1, 2011
Once again we get to the key......the CON in eCONomy...CONfidence. Key statistics released recently showed that over 50% of Americans were fearful they could lose their job in the next year. Shocked? I doubt if most of you are. Its been discussed here and in your comments. Restoration of this critical element in an economy is paramount to whether or not the velocity of money can be restored again. The CON is the problem. Everyone is getting wise to it. They may be 180 degrees wrong as to its cause and its solutions, but they know it when they smell it, and it stinks now to the moon. If the unemployment numbers are better than expected the market could sell off 300 points. No one believes anything anymore. Particulary the numbers and right now the only thing this market is in the process of,is rotting. That doesn't mean you can't make money at it however.
Guessing the markets reaction tomorrow is impossible, but guessing the market over the next 3 weeks is a little easier. We need a pullback and a buy and hold pulverizing. Without it the boyz cannot get the sideline money back in. Especially after the recent damage to investor psyche. For one thing you can count on a Bernanke bounce. If Ben doesn't bring in the sugar it may only last a day or two. If the market is tanking hard prior to the meeting then we can look at how much room we have to run in terms of time. I don't think Ben is going to release the big sugar at the meeting. Its expected...unless the market breaks the recent lows prior to the meeting. Right now I have a guess we get a nice two week bounce out of whatever Ben does. Maybe up to the 1270 level...then another hard tank and a real ball buster of an October. Enough that Ben will be forced to bring out the sugar and bring it out in a massive move....probably in late October after the market has just been crushed.....below 1100 maybe below 1000. We'll see. We need blood in the streets for that sideline money to get in.
We play the market, NOT the economy. The economy is in collapse. Do not confuse the two. We're playing sugar here. We're playing what the boyz are doing and the reasons why. Be very careful on the long side until you see blood and can't stand pushing that buy button. Watch the charts. Look at the monthlies...the weeklies...the RSIs the stochastics. Day trade for small gains on intraday oversolds on stocks you like. This is guerilla warfare in the pits. You have an advantage. Your measly number of shares does nothing to the share price when you move in and out. USE THAT. Nothing wrong with buying 1K or 2K shares and taking a 20c move as an oversold intraday move develops. USE the VOLATILITY when things get rolling. ABOVE all keep 40-50% cash in place until this thing shows us its tradable BOTTOM.
Posted by kliguy38 at 10:34 PM