Tuesday, January 17, 2012

QUITCHER CRYING

No one promised you this would be quick easy money. Maybe you thought it was going to be. Number one you probably suck as a trader. Recognize your weakness and use it to your advantage. Understand that the shorter term fluctuations in the casino are designed PURELY to relieve you of your money. When you take positions as a trader you have to believe in the longer term story in your position to hold on if you get caught in one of the much deeper corrections. These deep corrections are designed for heavily over-loaded boats. In other words they have to be deeper and longer to remove the majority of the weak hands and have them replaced by the stronger smart money. Perfect example was the Euro currency trade. Everyone and their brother was loaded on the short Euro trade last year. So what happened?? THEY held that trade in a very long descending wedge pattern that broke the back of the leveraged shorts and took as many out of that trade as possible. Once they were eliminated they floated the usual media stories that the Euro was going to 1.50 then took it down through the 1.40 baseline and cracked it like an egg. THEN as all the newbies jumped on as it broke 1.32 support they took it all the way back up above the baseline and WHOOOMPH....right back down to 1.27 today......THAT is how you clean the pipes on an overcrowded trade. If you follow the crowd then be prepared to suffer some pain. You are definitely in a crowded trade with precious metals....but its a lot less crowded now than it was a few months ago. That is what accumulation is all about. They cannot accumulate with newbie investors crowding into the trade so there MUST be a correction. Have we had that correction in PMs? ABSOLUTELY! Don't ignore what happened the past 8 months in the PM miner's stocks.....this was dramatic. You should have been accumulating on weakness and selling the rips. Now you should be accumulating on weakness with less selling on the rips as these miners reach these oversold levels. You may get some more weakness over the next couple of months but my core has been increased and if they do take it down hard again then adding and holding should not be feared. Ask yourself the question.....just where do you feel more comfortable right now investing? Use the KISS strategy in this market....KISS...is Keep It Simple Stupid. THEY are accumulating.......YOU accumulate. gl all
comments still impaired...use google chrome as a browser or use your delete browser function under safety

22 comments:

  1. Thanks Kli...I will have to get into that sector now on your timely piece....luv the chart...

    kind of like BIO right now also as they took those traders to task last year..

    DCTH now ready to move north in a big way...buying on dips....GENE, OSIR.. etc...

    ReplyDelete
  2. have small position in OSIR...want to add on pullback...

    ReplyDelete
  3. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/world-bank-cuts-economic-outlook-says-europe-recession-warns-developing-economies-prepare-worst

    ReplyDelete
  4. Looks like with IMF is loaning out 1 Trillion dollars. That should help the market for a couple hours.

    I still hold NKTR which has had a nice run off the bottom in 11/2011. I have read that there tends to be rotation into biotech during the Fall. Maybe that is what we are seeing.

    Most of what I am reading states that the markets are topping out and due for a fall. Time for crash helmets??

    The Keystone Speculator has featured SRS a couple times recently. There is positive divergence with the RSI & Stochastic. I am just watching it for now.

    ReplyDelete
  5. thanks Doc...forgot about Nektar...and their in my backyard..I've been looking at NGSX as a play...still reviewing.. Kli-Didn't u play AEN...what a profit if you bought in at .45 area....wow...

    ReplyDelete
  6. someone bought a lot of march $15 calls on LNG....lots....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. hmmmmmmmmmm....muchas gracias

      Delete
    2. prolly puttin a spread on it at these prices......also gold trying to rebound...still short term holding in there

      Delete
  7. pulling up a lil more RWM for a hedge here and did not add to TVIX....thatz a lil to hot for my hands

    ReplyDelete
  8. Just to note, the Keystone Speculator is predicting Natural Gas will be the best commodity performer for 2012. So, I'll have to build a position.

    Took advantage of today's market performance to close out one of my kid's mutual funds.

    ReplyDelete
  9. good job doc.......also what are you going to use as a trading vehicle on nat gas....

    ReplyDelete
  10. Kli,

    I don't know what I will pick yet.

    I found these UNG charts from Keystone. Hopefully this link will work.

    http://thekeystonespeculator.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2011-11-22T19:26:00-05:00&max-results=5

    ReplyDelete
  11. I just picked up some UNG (5.08). Also, solars have had some interesting action lately, especially SOL.

    ReplyDelete
  12. added tiny dto to a tiny dto position.....

    ReplyDelete
  13. Liking UNG on pierce of bottom bollinger band and volume
    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=UNG+Interactive#symbol=ung;range=6m;compare=;indicator=sma(50,100,150)+bollinger+volume+stochasticslow+macd;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;

    will build position..

    ReplyDelete
  14. check these 2 proshare symbols on natural gas..volume in last couple weeks is interesting..

    KOLD 2xshort
    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=KOLD+Interactive#symbol=kold;range=3m;compare=;indicator=sma(50,100,150)+bollinger+volume+stochasticslow+macd;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;

    Boil 2xlong
    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=BOIL+Interactive#symbol=boil;range=6m;compare=;indicator=sma(50,100,150)+bollinger+volume+stochasticslow+macd;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;

    ReplyDelete
  15. and your interpretation ........??

    ReplyDelete
  16. a turn is near, but I'm not very good at this...

    ReplyDelete
  17. divergence on RUT....added to my RWM

    ReplyDelete
  18. goog missed badly and getting slaughtered ah......should be interesting...ibm missed revs....intel made there est......now we here guidance

    ReplyDelete
  19. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete