Saturday, January 21, 2012

WEEKEND MUSE

Well here we are... almost a month into the new year. This is the last year of the "extend and pretend" period of the Grand Supercycle. As discussed previously these cycles contain allowance for politics and the Fed. If you haven't seen how closely intertwined this scheme is with these entities then you need to exit the paper market now and tell your wife you will not be gambling in the Great Casino again. Based on cycle theory this year has but one option to remain in a trading range without a collapse.....and that is monetization of debt. Not just any little ammount of monetization but an incredible ammount of printing is necessary. Of course this monetization is being disguised in various forms as we have seen....not just the announced "QE" that everyone is fixed on. We have had CONSTANT monetization since QE2. If we had not had worldwide monetization we would have collapsed in a complete liquidity crash. Everything you see today worldwide is being managed by the central bankers. Politicians are all technocrats for the Central Bankers...nothing else. Then there is Russia and China, waiting in the wings while the developed world struggles to find a way out of its current debt predicament. Make no mistake they are not passive as our MSM news experts would have you believe. They are biding their time and waiting for the debt bomb to explode. It would be bad enough if the debt bomb were the only bombs we had to worry about but of course this entire ponzi has used the global military industrial complex as a cash kitty to exploit the developing nation's resources and prop up their own international corporations. This is where the geo-political war games enter. It has been a multi-century game that has essentially maintained the same playbook. Clean out the treasury of said "designated" empire and end the supercycle AND said "designated" empire. Move on to the next supercycle chest board. Is this the current plan? I see no reason to expect otherwise. Great Britain was the last world empire and we are the current world empire in line for the guillotine by global bankers. Just one problem with the old playbook....nuclear weapons. Its the fly in the ointment. With just a few of these weapons a third rate military power becomes incredibly dangerous to the bullies on the block. It takes countries like North Korea and Pakistan and make them extremely dangerous if they get plugged into a conflict equation. It also makes them virtually IMMUNE from an invasion from another country....ie. the USA. Note the almost complete silence on North Korea from the war mongering neocons once they obtained nuclear weapons. I recall at least two test blasts from the North Koreans several years ago......These blasts were phoo-phooed by our monitors as very low level explosions an likely not really a bomb. I wondered if this was disinformation.....and I was correct. After those test blasts we have completely been silenced on provoking North Korea. Could you imagine a nuclear bomb launch on Japan or South Korea. There is no way we will provoke that unstable government now. Iran is an entirely different problem. It already had protection from Russia and China. For all of our bluster a conflict with Iran would be disastrous on so many levels so I don't see it happening. If it does then you can be assured this blog will be off the air...and survival mode will be all we care about. Now back to the business at hand. We cannot control this dangerous world but we at least have an idea what is in store for the global bankers and they must maintain liquidity or it is lights out...IMMEDIATELY. Right now the is NO CONfidence in the system currently in place so a resolution of the essential issues of unemployment and GDP is not even on the table. It will be monetization (printing) until the prices of essentials forces price collapse and overall deflation (coming next year) take over. If you choose not to participate no one can blame you and I hope you have a way to sustain yourself through the coming turmoil. gl....oh...btw miners will be fine this year.....I just don't know when.....hehehehe...but I do like what I see so far. I highly encourage you to go the 13.20 mark on the Keiser report and listen to the interview with Pollack...
Just a word on GBG...its been a beaten down Junior but its for real... Burnstone mine has 6.36 million Proven and Probable and 12.1 million Measured & Indicated resources. Mining costs are estimated at $450 per ounce. That is very cheap. In addition, GBG is developing the Hollister mine, part of the Carlin Trend, in Nevada. Hollister has 0.9 million Proven and Probable and 1.4 million Measured and Indicated resources at a mining cost of $527 per ounce. Hollister neighbors properties owned by Newmont and Barrick. The Hollister property also includes the Esmeralda Mill, which will improve recovery rates. Hollister additionally has an estimated 4.9 million P&P and 11.6 million M&I silver resources. DONT blow off the silver.

17 comments:

  1. Kli,

    Thanks for posting. I listened to Pollack on the Keiser report.

    I have looked upon fiat currency as existing in two forms:

    "Hard Fiat"--the actual dollar bills/coins that you have at home

    "Electronic Fiat"--the money you have in the banks/mutual funds-brokerages, etc. It is electronic or computerized money.

    It is the "Electronic Fiat" that scares me most of all. When MF Global collapsed, it would be my interpretation that it was electronic fiat was stolen, and this would seem to be the easiest to do. The PTB press a few buttons on a computer, and the money is gone. Pollack in the interview discussed the "Bank Holiday" which he stated would revalue currency--example: 5 dollars would have the purchasing power of 1 dollar. Thus, he seems to imply that it would not matter if you had dollars at home or at the bank. All would be revalued. Your money would not actually be taken away as with MF Global, but revalued. Is that your interpretation??

    Last tax year was the first time I did not max out my retirement. I think for this year, I will put in even less. Every year when I speak with my accountant, we talk about all this "world debt" and just what might happen. I asked him if any of his clients (and he has very wealthy ones) are liquidating their retirement accounts. He tell me "No". He feels that it would take "Anarchy" to wipe out the electronic money. But, maybe that is where things are heading.

    In your "neck of the woods", do you know of people that are liquidating their retirement money? Then, of course, you would have to deal with all the "hard fiat" and convert it into something else.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anecdotally I know of people that are getting out of their retirement accounts but not many......most mistakenly (IMO) believe that staying in "cash" or cash equivalents will protect them. As you duly noted and I try to emphasize that holding equities in some ways may be safer than holding cash. As red and others have emphasized we are heading into a phase of looting the final holders of wealth by the vultures...and it will not end well for most fiat participants. I have decreased my contributions to my 401K by 25% the past 3 years...Next year I will contribute ZERO to my 401k........all will go into PMs..physical.....

      Delete
    2. also doc my interpretation of MF is that a more nefarious takedown occurred....they needed to get there hands on physical gold and silver AND they needed to stop as many investors that were "standing for delivery" at the comex......It was a dual asassination AND just like in the movies......they kept the cash.....that slows these investors from taking that money straight to a physical delivery using another investment vehicle

      Delete
  2. Liquidity is fine and nice, but they would eventually need solvency as well to replace the fading illusion of prosperity with any kind of reality.

    We should have deflation ALL THE TIME thanks to gains in technology and productivity, instead such gains are skimmed off the top and unleashed upon us only when it will hurt us the most.

    ReplyDelete
  3. As Kli infers, this situation and these grumblings are not something new under the sun.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Diversity is still the best strategy if you don't know the order of the asset classes targeted to keep the Ponzi going, and then the subsequent domino of asset classes that will collapse when the Ponzi fails.

    As for personal debt, either be debt free or walk away from the debt.
    IRA contributions still continue due to matching, but at lowest contribution levels, if things get worse they will be even lower down to the minimum, $20.
    Would hold have some long dated Treasuries, not much though.
    Burning through cash to get things fixed up and going with the debt free option, walking away has negative consequences if you are still on the grid.
    Stocks only a very small discretionary amount that will not matter either way.
    Any PM holdings should be considered insurance not investment.
    Main focus should be on food, water, security and shelter (the safety and sanity asset) when war, QE3 and then the subsequent deflationary collapse catches most people off guard over the next 2 years.

    Short term, markets will be taken down to keep the insider vultures satiated; you can pick or insert the faux news. Expect tighter control on information and the internet, can't have things like public opinion and anger change the minds of a majority of Congress too often especially when there are profits to be made from another orchestrated conflict.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Everyone,

    Thanks for the above comments. It is interesting that both Kli & Red commented that they are contributing less to retirement. That would make at least 3 of us that came to that conclusion independently.

    Depending on where people live, our needs are different. Water is not a big issue for me. I will need some type of purification, but the actual water is plentiful. We started food preparation in the Fall of 2010 & that is going well. Now electrical power & heat--that's a biggie. No easy solution and it will not be possible for me to go off the grid. So, there is work to do. Some type of power solution & accumulation of physical PM are the goals for this year.

    ReplyDelete
  6. BOIL chart I posted a couple days ago was telling...NG is going to get a bump from O man...the volume was very telling...someone was leaked some info...

    ReplyDelete
  7. total speculative play.....ACTC....from lakecabs......
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/321308-the-best-biotech-stocks-of-2012?source=yahoo

    ReplyDelete
  8. i was wrong about everything...

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-i-was-wrong-about-everything

    ReplyDelete
  9. The bigger threat from Iran than nuclear weapons. Definitely a strike is going to happen to preserve the glory of dollars for oil hegemony. All praise Baron R...

    India to pay gold instead of dollars for Iranian oil. Oil and gold markets stunned
    http://www.debka.com/article/21673/

    ReplyDelete
  10. there have already been strikes on their facilities..the question is just how far we intend to push it......I think russia and china have called our bluffs...but i never count out our ponzi masters

    ReplyDelete
  11. Kli,
    please tell me you folks are playing BOIL...Palmer would eat this up..

    ReplyDelete
  12. not in it chuck.....too many burners cookin today

    ReplyDelete