Wednesday, June 20, 2012

CONFUSED?

Of course you are....its designed that way. Up is down and black is white. This paradigm must and will continue to buy time as a solution is designed to alleviate an overleveraged banking system. The real issue should be how to restore the structural impediments to the economy but that is supposed to occur as a result of a strong banking system. Its all being contained for your own good. Now lets move along. Next on the confused agenda is the reaction to the FOMC with the metals and metal equities. Once again....its designed...but there were some clues. Ben was very clear......the economy is weakening (er failing)...and that monetization will continue. Forget the rest of the doublespeak. Its only there to keep you guessing. He wouldn't get any bang for his buck with the QE announcement today so I suspect it will happen sometime during the next couple of months maybe even a couple of weeks but we need some squealing and fear first for the shorts to get squeezed. More importantly for us today the action of the PM stocks was very encouraging. The limited movement down today as gold was taking it on the chin indicates that the game is intact for the move up to continue in PM equities. Hang tight we could get some kind of limited takedown here but you have to consider the bottom is in.  We will see of course. Don't expect it to be easy. This trade does not want you in it. gl

82 comments:

  1. China's manufacturing pmi is at a 7-mo. low, everything's red now.

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  2. yes now lets get a nice controlled takedown with the MSM injecting a dash of Euro fear into the soup and ouila we have Ben's next big thing.......meanwhile we get daily digital printing to buy the debt..pretending that we are not printing

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  3. Couple comments & I question:

    I have mentioned the stock NKTR. Just so you know, an author on SeekingAlpha wrote an extremely negative article, believing that all their Phase III drugs will fail and that the stock is only worth "1 dollar". Now, the author admitted he is short the stock and his article was heavily challenged in the comment section. I am still holding my shares.

    Phil Davis writes that he is back in cash and that he believes the S&P cannot go much higher without more stimulus. He believes 600 billion more is needed to get the S&P to 1400. He comments that there may be some end of the quarter window dressing, but be aware of a possible crash.

    Question: Kli, when you write that the bottom may be in for Gold, are you referring to a temporary bottom? Don't you think we could still be at risk for a fall to 1300 or so?

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    1. sorry Phil I was not clear.....I believe the bottom is in for most of the miners......there could be a wicked double bottom coming up in the next few weeks but I think the worst will be a fib retrace of 50 or 62.....anyway gold on the other hand could also see a beatdown with this move.....I think there is a pair trade of short bullion long miners on now and that means they have the ammo to push gold to 1300 without the miners forming a new bottom. I'm still all in and will take my medicine....no leverage here

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    2. Those Seeking Alpha write ups could be a guy from a message board...I'm still holding..looks like nktr is back filling breakout..

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  4. massive amount of trapped shorts in ONXX

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  5. Confused, No, Getting Impatient, Yes but that's just me........
    fwiw : while it was nice to have the feeling of anticipation, I really didn't think he was going to announce QE yesterday. A headline was posted on Drudge yesterday that Big Ben was going to do so, that did it for me, anyway as you stated its coming but I’m of the opinion that it will be event driven and reactionary what that might be who knows, could be all wet behind the ears on this but that’s my thinking……
    btw: This was funny: “Ben was very clear......the economy is weakening (er failing)...”
    Ever consider writing Comedy :) hehehehe

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  6. action remains good for PM equities so far......lets see if they can hold or improve

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  7. bullion order placed.....silver not gold......holding ammo for the 24 area if it hits

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  8. Trapped shorts in soda, too. And arna just won't quit.

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    1. Man ARNA has been crazy! Didn't some folks here play it back in the day?

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  9. This seems to happen every time Ben takes his finger off the QE trigger...

    Gold
    1,582.90
    -32.90
    -2.04%

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  10. Deflation is still going... oil breaking through 80. How low will we go....

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    Replies
    1. Oil keeps plunging, now below 79....

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  11. LEI up in May, big surprise. ;).

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  12. Exactly hubz, kicking myself for not playing...it's on my watchlist!

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  13. Couple of nice charts I saw someone make -

    http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack/folders/1206/media/c7366b88-48d1-499d-a59e-4552a20c8ab2

    http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack/folders/1206/media/44972b51-49c3-486d-ad00-4e829994cc25

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    1. like those charts hub keep posting them if you get more

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  14. just posted the GPL daily forming a bull flag.....should know within a week

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  15. posted a DSCO chart....ready for lift off???

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    1. I was looking at it the other day...the 360sma just crossed over the 180sma also..so a good chance of move...worth a flyer with a stop below

      OSIR is a beast right now...its like ISRG in early days...look at where ISRG today...
      http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=ISRG+Interactive#symbol=isrg;range=5y;compare=;indicator=bollinger+sma(50,180,360)+volume+macd+rsi;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

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  16. today or the next will tell if this was another plunge in gold for the commercials to exit some more of their short position. Everytime they do this they lose bullion. Very expensive for them

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    1. but they are trapped in a derivative exposure that is suicide. oh well i will take the delivery and smile

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  17. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oracles-ellison-to-buy-hawaiian-island-of-lanai-2012-06-21?link=MW_home_latest_news


    ok, this guy has too much money...talk about a grand lesson in today's world of greed...

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    Replies
    1. Lanai might be my favorite place in the world - to get away from it all...

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  18. pay attention....they should be able to plug this ....but very worrisome

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2162630/NatWest-Royal-Bank-Scotland-customers-hit-technical-problem.html

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  19. This is came over the Twitter feeds:

    WSJ

    Breaking: The European Central Bank is considering relaxing collateral rules for ECB loans.

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  20. NOW we're getting nasty..........hehehhehehe.....Ben is building his fear......SSRI "should" hold 12 area...

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    1. Yuck! This sucks... better to just turn off the monitor.

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    2. all noise Hub.....so better to turn it off .....and wait

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  21. FEAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! hehehehhee....ya gotta love this game they need that big flood of money and they need it fast.....gonna bring in the fear AND flush the gold bugs.....hehehehehehehe

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    1. Its starting to pick up! Would love to see prices fall to 1220 but I don't know if we get there. There would be so much physical metal leaving the West at such a rapid rate, it would clean them out pretty good. Would like to see one more huge flush here! Got the cash to buy more physical.....

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  22. Total bloodbath on GOLD...

    Gold 1568.60 -47.20 2.92%

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  23. no Jay not total......hehehehe......but I can hope......love to see it at 1220.....then you can get your big physical buy...they could do it

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    Replies
    1. If they're gonna do it they need to do it in the next few weeks. I need time for my calls to recover :)

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  24. At 1577 now... it bounced pretty hard off the bottom.

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  25. Another article pointing out that the mining sector is just TOO cheap right now - http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-06-20/aurico-gold-ceo-says-it-will-be-opportunistic-in-m-and-a

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  26. ANTH is on radar...move could be a double if good data...volume rising along with pps...news this weekend possible

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  27. $9 DEC calls on AUQ getting stupid cheap. Trading at a price when AUQ was much lower.

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  28. GS has gone short: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldman-goes-short-sp-500-1285-target Expecting S&P to 1285. Well, we know it won't be 1285, right?

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  29. Gold
    1,566 -50 -3.09%

    I'm not ready to buy physical yet. I think they'll bleed it for one more day.

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    Replies
    1. I just keep averaging with a good cash pile if they go stupid on me and hit my wish list level

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  30. The only safe havens today are puts and shorts. This market is nothing without cash printing...

    Dow 12,614 -211 -1.64%
    Nasdaq 2,871 -60 -2.04%
    S&P 500 1,330 -25 -1.87%
    GlobalDow 1,797 -28 -1.51%
    Gold 1,569 -47 -2.93%
    Oil 78.31 -3.14 -3.86%

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  31. With gold and silver getting smashed, along with stocks and commodities, today King World News interviewed James Turk out of Europe. Turk told KWN, “while the Lehman Brothers (event) was bad, it was just a warmup for a much worse financial catastrophe ... We’re just getting started in terms of a fear event.” Here is what Turk had to say about what is taking place: “Everything is getting smashed today, Eric, but this is what you can expect when you are going into a ‘Fear Event.’ Doesn’t this (type of action) feel a lot like what happened when we went into the Lehman collapse?”

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  32. silver with a 26 handle now hehehe

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    1. longs bleeding out of every orifice......lesson is WARNING DONT BE IN THIS TRADE! I think I'll stay....F you

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    2. Hahahaha I'm with you! Til the bitter end or my account goes to zero... whichever comes first ;)

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    3. Hubz, Silver has never been Zero...similar to my dating calendar

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  33. and they say there is no cabal

    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-scam-wall-street-learned-from-the-mafia-20120620#ixzz1ySCEgqjl

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    1. I can't wait to read this. Matt Taibbi is the same writer that did the incredible Goldman piece a few years back.

      This is getting bookmarked and saved offline immediately.

      Thanks for the tip.

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  34. fear intensifying....women and children now running in the streets as the blood flows from wall street. This is shocking and unexpected......sarcasm off...BWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA. Downgrade of Banks at 4PM......just shocking.....

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    1. You know the CNBC talking heads are gonna be all gloomy tonight and tomorrow. fkn worthless!

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    2. HAHA.... remember my comment from 2 days ago!!!

      Jay June 19, 2012 11:19 AM

      Why Cramer Likes US Stocks Now....Instead of concentrating solely on Europe's debt crisis, investors should have one eye on Europe and the other focused on opportunities in American stocks, said Jim Cramer on CNBC's "Mad Money."....

      http://tinyurl.com/d3t3dwh

      A sure sign that the market is about to crash. *chuckle*

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    3. also garman went bullish on PM equities on Monday I believe...hehehehheheh.....load up the newbie longs for a butchering.......also from a bullish perspective today...CNBS just bashed silver hard 30 minutes ago.....right on que

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    4. a good leaf blowing always helps......get the newbies off the tree

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  35. One important difference I've noticed between this PM smashdown and every single other over the past 15 months is the premium on CEF. Every single other time the premium has been weak and goes to a discount. It may yet again, but it is currently holding above 3.5% and has been strengthening for days :). Holding tight. jd.

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    1. afternoon jd......would have loved to have caught a trade on this yesterday but not trading untill we clear 1700

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  36. Many of the recent participants from the hedgies are in leveraged trades in the miners and this kind of volatility scares the shit out of them. They'll close their positions in a hurry when this hits....not to mention the other hedges that have to liquidate on days like this to cover other equity losses......hang tite and have patience...

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  37. I want a time machine for ARNA ;(

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    1. play the volume...next week it could be 20+ on fda approval...

      just put a tight stop and pick entry at low if possible..just scalp in and out if you don't feel comfortable...when fda decision hits, I believe it will move lower for a bit..

      I still have some I bought at 1.81...will sell day before decision..

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    2. $1.81! WOW. I need to learn more about these pharma's how to trade them I guess. Just always been deathly afraid of them. But I guess if you make small bets you can't get hurt too bad and can do quite well.

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    3. Actually can do options on this as good healthy volume. Though the premiums are high (of course with the recent action). But still a $1000 bet could double pretty quickly if we get another day or two like today. And a run up to $20 could be a 4 bagger easy.

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    4. Or a straddle... JUST in case there's no approval. This will move big one way or another I'm sure.

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    5. straddle would work...look for huge unusual volume flowing into small float...with news pending on these bios..

      Hence why I picked up a little ANTH...look at the volume vs avg volume, news pending and what could happen is quick move for 2-3$...

      Dsco news Kli...
      http://finance.yahoo.com/news/discovery-labs-added-russell-2000-193000239.html

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    6. $9 puts and $14 calls look ideal to me... June is barely cheaper than July thought which blows :(

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  38. Bears overall are getting way too excited in my opinion. We're still above recent market lows, and miners lows aren't even close. Higher lows aren't bearish.

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    1. agree but short term still could get further bleeding.....

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  39. Greyerz just out with this and it syncs with what i have said

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/6/21_Greyerz_-_We_Are_Headed_For_Panic_As_Global_Markets_Tumble.html

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  40. As you keep reminding me, they don't want us in this trade. You can blame me for today since I added some HL & bought GV yesterday!!! Not much green in my fields except arna/soda.

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  41. Oh, now they're even bashing gold/silver on the radio...eurozone and now even China slowing. Glut of oil in world. Run for the hills! Sorry Hubz, can't see your charts. Does one need to open an acct? Thx.

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  42. Moody's is in a bad mood...

    Moody’s cuts credit ratings of 15 major banks.

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  43. I have no green today sista......Gartman now on CNBS giving his latests gold calls......hehehehehee......geeeze.......people falling all overthemselves to dump on gold......makes me laugh.....the only thing that worries me is Adami is still bullish on gold......hehehehehhe

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    1. Let us know when Adami goes bearish so we can buy. :)

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    2. talk about a so called "gold trader" from Goldman that missed the entire runup from 280.....now he's bullish......oh well better late than never

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  44. sheesh Twitter is all messed up this afternoon. Some hackers got them good.

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  45. GS 1285 is a sucker play, a bounce above will short lived. A bounce well below will be brutal. Just a question of how far down you can take before CONfidence breaks. Unless December 2012 really is a fuhrer bunker elite month.

    Local banking software glitchy, banks couldn't get into their own accounts. With interest so pathetically low any fear will cause cash bank runs.

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    1. Ah yes....CONfidence.....that little word that seems to keep popping up.....that little word that you can't really put back in the bottle once it is lost....

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  46. The internet has been really glitchy..Immred6 did you know banks get downgraded today? Some folks new hence the cash raise. Buch of BS it is.

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  47. Good to see you red...funny you should mention it, I almost took out some (more) "just in case" cash today, will definitely do so tomorrow. After reading Matt Taibii's article, it's a wonder anyone trusts any bank to do anything. The system Has to collapse, this just cannot go on. Me, too Duke--got lotsa cef, have held for at least 6 yrs.

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