Monday, June 4, 2012

PATIENCE

When you are in a hunt, then make sure you keep your focus and your patience. The wolf knows that keeping his prey in his site is a must.Knowing the outcome can keep you from losing site of your prey. Right now the boyz are still playing games with the miners and there really is NO confirmation that a breakout has occurred in the miners. Sure there are signs aplenty that we have a bottom but until we see that series of higher highs and lower lows with weekly RSIs showing buy........I'll remain unconvinced. They won't shake my trade but I refuse to get over confident and lose objectivity of the prize. This is a cat and mouse game of the highest order and right now the Fed wants to keep the headline price of gold from showing their hand. They have NO choice but to print or face the worst Depression in history in a matter of months. Make NO MISTAKE they know this. There are rumors that major brokerages are cancelling summer vacations in preparation for a major deleveraging event that appears to be targeting the June 20 FOMC announcement. We may get some hint prior to this date that will be tipped by the CNBS pundits. Look for what is the general consensus to be WRONG prior to the announcement. Several bond price watchers believe that we are going to get a disappointment from Sugarben and only get a Titty Twist operation instead of fullout asset buying QE printing.

Between now and then lets keep our eye on Gold and the miners. Look for daily volume buying confirmation and look for gold to keep contained. Watch for the negative news from the usual suspect on gold....if you don't see this ......then be prepared for a slap down with the announcement. As usual the end game does not change.....it will only be a slap down...QE is and MUST come....or you can turn out the lights and we will be going underground. gl  But I thought I might give your hope...here is Toby Connor snippit from Goldseek  Gold:

I think it’s safe to say that Friday’s action took the short cycle scenario off the table (as well as the D-Wave continuation). Gold not only broke its intermediate trend line, but also formed a weekly swing. I think we have all the confirmation we need at this point to conclude that gold’s intermediate cycle bottomed two weeks ago. (My previous post dated May 17 correctly called gold's bottom within a single day).

  


As I pointed out in the dollar section above, this should also mark a yearly cycle low and a B-wave bottom in the gold market. I’m about 99% positive Friday’s rally was the kickoff of a brand new C-Wave advance. That being said I wouldn’t expect gold to rally straight up to new highs this summer. It may test $1900 during this new intermediate cycle but I think gold is still going to have to consolidate for most of this year before it can breakout to new highs. My best guess is probably next spring before any sustained move above $1900. 
So there ya have it from Toby...now here are my charts for today gl all

30 comments:

  1. I don't understand the rumblings of there not going to be some sort of formal QE announcement either this month or by end of the year. They don't have an alternative to printing as far as I can see and I've racked my brain trying to think otherwise. I personally think deflation would be a much better outcome then hyper inflation but then the banks would die, and they pull the strings and they are not going to let that happen. Reading the Big Short convinced me of this. Anyhow of course I could be wrong but I just don't think they have any other choice they will print print print!

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    1. I'm with you Hubz, bring on the deflation ASAP. We'll not only survive, but come out much stronger on the other side.

      I also agree that the printing presses will continue. We'll almost certainly see QE3 & QE4 But after that, I think the $10 a gallon gas will cause some scenes reminiscent of the movie Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome. After all, wasn't hyperinflation a major factor in the years leading up to WW2?

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  2. Op twist is a lesser evil...and is "sterilized" but the national debt keeps piling up there will be printing.

    The FED prolly thinks theycan resusitate equities any time.

    The doves will fly on Thurs for sure...Jawbone action.

    keep em long IMHO. The 20th is d-day for now.

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  3. Hubz,

    I am reading the same negative comments about QE. Still, I don't see any alternative either. Some type of stimulus will be needed, and perhaps they will find some way to disguise it.

    I believe the S&P got down to 1266'ish yesterday which is pretty close to 1260. Thus, maybe that is the bottom (temporary bottom). Phil feels the S&P needs to climb to and stay above 1284 before getting truly bullish.

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  4. If B of A is near $5.00 on the 20th. QE would be a possibility.

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  5. Boomerang is also good & All the Devils Are Here is very well documented. In the meantime, the Brits are celebrating with the pomp & circumstance that only they can display...at the sheeple's expense, of course. London reopens tomorrow so I'm watching for a bounce then. Friday was scary for the PTB when gold was up almost $70.

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  6. Everyone's new favorite stock is having a rough ride today.

    Golden Minerals Company (AUMN)
    4.83 Down 0.21(4.17%) 11:48AM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price

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  7. Wouldn't deflation be a better outcome for the powers to be as they will maintain all their assets, ie the control of the currency. If our money becomes worthless how would that be in their interest? Just asking.

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    1. In my opinion debt is the powers that be's weapon of choice. They more they can issue the more they can claim. It's a brilliant racket for them. They issue something that is intrinsically worthless, in exchange for valuable assets. 30x-50x over. Wash, rinse, repeat, expand. And now they've gotten the governments to bail them out when they make huge mistakes. They CANNOT lose. They have won.

      Deflation ruins this as it gives people like you or I the ability to also claim assets that are cheap with our savings. They have made becoming a saver actually a huge disadvantage. Though it's still better than being a debt slave. But in the past you or I could save money and grow it by investing. Now that is no longer possible. At best we have to fight tooth and nail just to preserve our spending power.

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    2. Dang Hubz. We must have been separated at birth. In total agreement with you again.

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    3. Hahahaha, great minds think alike? ;)

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    4. Debt pushers are much worse than drug pushers....you can cure drug addiction, debt addiction is revolving, even springs to life after bk.....

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  8. AUQ moving nicely and quietly...

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    1. Wheeeeeee! Making up for Friday ;)

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  9. I am reading you but too busy to comment have at it

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  10. SVM making a move too. Now above its 50 day ma.

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    1. Thank goodness. Talked my parents into buying that in their IRA at $9.50... whoops ;) They LOVE to bring that up at Sunday dinner hahaha...

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  11. just a wee bit more..silver be breaking out of the bullish pennant.

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    1. silver is looking good...I was playing around this weekend...re-did the graphs last night...some good things happening with the 180 and 50 that haven't happened in a while...the 8 hr has silver over the 50 for first time in a while..I find the 1 hours cool as it shows the 50 and 180 as support now...

      hourly
      http://postimage.org/image/6t0b94jot/
      2 hour
      http://postimage.org/image/yoefp577f/
      4 hour
      http://postimage.org/image/6bzccyp8x/
      8 hour
      http://postimage.org/image/zb8su8g19/

      the weekly shows the rounded 50 capping silver perfectly..the 8 hr

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    2. you can click on image to make it bigger

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  12. ndx going to compensate FB investors....wow!

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  13. thanks for keeping charts going......wish i were there......later tonite.

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  14. Just heard John & Monica Miller who wrote The Coming Bank Holiday...anyone familiar with that one? They moved to New Zealand...the book gives practical advice about surviving.

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  15. reports are coming in that Bob Chapman has passed away..

    http://sgtreport.com/2012/06/we-will-miss-you-bob/

    also I know that Bob was friends with Alex Jones..

    http://www.infowars.com/in-memory-bob-chapman-passes-away/

    I did a web search and found that it is not ture...

    if ture.....I will miss him...I have read him for years..

    paladin

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  16. Replies
    1. Yup :) Due to this perhaps?

      http://www.zerohedge.com/news/here-come-hilsenrath-leak-fed-considers-more-action

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  17. front tires are off the edge of the cliff in the world tonight. Those barbaric metals being horded all over da place. Sadly the same fools that got us here are still at the wheel. We are close to an out an out atm no worky lights out bank holiday for some.

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  18. Prolly a hyper stagflatonary event on the horizon.

    While the world prints and push's on the string of job creation and real estate prices every thing else will be a lot more expensive.

    This time around maybe even the stock market may not benefit as money will flow into real tangible take delivery now stuff.

    It is dicey out.

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  19. This speaks VOLUMES.....please understand that these events should tell you EVERYTHING

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/12/18_Turk_-_Why_Did_They_Send_In_The_Queen_Instead_Of_Auditors.html

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