Tuesday, July 31, 2012


India (saving electricity)
If one is predisposed to using Elliot Wave theory and fibonacci numbers any longer to try and determine trends and timing then one should read the following link in detail and recognize the possibility of what we may be entering. Many of you have reached the point that your miner holdings moving into any semblance of profit would trigger an immediate selling opportunity. I can't blame you. After all.....its only the game and we are human....predisposed to the predictability that has always defined our behavior. Alf Field has traded the PM trade forever and understands more about the trading of gold than most of us combined. You owe it to yourself to read the link since it will probably raise an eyebrow or two.

This is from Businessweek news today and is once again showing us the fragility of our system when exposed to nature's forces. Don't underestimate these conditions. I'm counting on containment of this but then I am an optimist......the pragmatist in me says to keep preparing.... 

Officials blamed forces beyond their control. India depends on the summer monsoon for much of its annual rainfall, but so far this year’s rains have been disappointing. The less-than-normal rainfall has put strains on India’s hydroelectric power supply, which accounts for 19 percent of the country’s 205-gigawatt generation capacity but has dropped nearly 20 percent in the first six months of the financial year because of the delayed monsoon rains. N.R. Nayak, chairman of the state-owned company that operates the electric grid for northern India, told reporters on July 30 that “dry monsoons resulted in less hydro power being in the grid, which is why some states may have reached beyond their scheduled supply purchases to meet demand.”
Still, experts outside the government say officials need to do more. The state still dominates power production, with private-sector producers accounting for only 27 percent of generation capacity. “The power ministry has made this industry financially unviable and until they set it free, it will continue to run into problems like these massive blackouts,” says Rohit Singh, an analyst with IDBI Capital Market Services. The government mandates that state-owned Coal India sell to local power producers at a discount of about 75 percent, but the company, which controls about 80 percent of the market, hasn’t kept pace with the growth of the power sector. Michael Parker, an analyst in Hong Kong with Sanford Bernstein, puts the shortfall at 60 million tons of coal a year. For India’s power producers, there are few alternatives to Coal India; with the rupee’s 26 percent slide against the dollar over the past 12 months, importing isn’t really an option.
Coal India’s struggle to keep up with demand stems in part from government restrictions on new mining. Many coal deposits lie in forested regions in eastern India, whose inhabitants want the forest to remain untouched and where Maoist rebels are active. Several years ago the government implemented a “go/no go” policy restricting new mining. The government ended the policy recently, but the coal industry is still feeling the impact, says Salil Garg, director of energy and utilities for Fitch Ratings India.

Nearer to home, the heat and drought are causing massive problems for farmers and ranchers all over now.  The following is an excerpt from the shocking information that Ron Klinefelter shared on standeyo.com the other day….
This month, the 3 nearest cattlemen’s livestock auctions set ALL TIME EVER records for livestock sales, as farmers sell off their herds. There was only one early cutting of hay this year, and the round bales are going for $100/bale. (This should normally cost $20-25/bale.) We had a pipe break in our 340 foot deep well, which necessitated us getting the pump pulling truck out here this last month. When we originally drilled the well, in the “plenty of rain years”, the water rose to within 24 feet of the surface. Last month, it was 180 feet down to the water level, and we are down in a valley bottom, and not irrigating out of it. The guy pulling the pump told me that the call he made earlier in the day to a guy who wasn’t getting any water in his pressure tank, found, when they pulled the pump, that the water level was now 40 feet BELOW the pump, which was completely dry and burnt out! Some of the rural water systems have also run out of water, and burnt their pumps out.
I talked to one of my sons today. He manages the largest elderberry farm in the U.S., up by Jefferson City, Mo. They are in their harvest now. He said that last week, they picked 10 long field rows, where, in a “normal” year, they would get about 700 pounds of berries. This year they got 35 pounds!

gl all

Monday, July 30, 2012


This is the end of the Grand Supercycle. Whether you are an adherent to the Kress cycles or not you only need to understand their underlying significance and their applicability to your positions as not only an investor but to your position as a member of the human race. If you take the premise that economic laws can be broken at will without consequences then of course these cycles are meaningless. Your premise then becomes that indeed the Fed does possess omnipotent power. Essentially you are agreeing that the law of nature no longer applies. In other words.......THIS TIME IT IS DIFFERENT!  Excess can become more excessive, and when that becomes too excessive then instead of deleveraging your excess from you evil/weak/stupid behavior and becoming expunged.......you simply TRIPLE DOWN with more leverage....further bailing out and extending the evil/weak/stupid behavior. This continued violation of nature's law not once...not twice....but over and over....now becomes a moral hazard of epic proportions. Much like the analogy that was given with the computerized mountain of sand.....eventially collapsing. Cycles are patterns involving a combination of many patterns combining human behavior such as greed and fear. Kress cycles also use election cycles and the Fed in their cycles. They also use generational amnesia as a part of their behavior analysis. Do you remember the Great Depression?

Timing all of this cannot be made to perfectly as anyone with common sense would easily admit, but it is going to transpire. You only have to look at now versus a few years ago and see just how much confidence is eroding within the "system". As mentioned previously CONfidence is paramount to the system. It must be maintained.....not diminished. Right now Confidence is eroding in virtually all areas of the economy. Fiat currency is entirely dependent on Confidence. Nothing backs most of the nation's fiat other than the faith in that piece of paper will be able to purchase the same quantity of goods and materials in the future. Right now fear is maintaining the purchasing power of the dollar vs other currency. But in time what will happen when the fear creeps in to ALL currencies? What happens when CONfidence collapses? If you deceive and deceive and trample the rule of law that has sustained CONfidence can there be a return to normal without providing a tangible backing to that piece of paper? We are now back to the question of what is the tipping point for the Grand Supercycle reset and will this cleansing need to happen. Or will we just manage to Muddle through. Will we just continue to fish basking in the warm, soothing glow of a late summer sun......oblivious to the looming crisis on the horizon. In other words a controlled world economy by Central Bankers DOES trump Nature's law. Well guess what. I don't have that answer....but I do have a guess and so do you. Maybe the Kress cycles will be off and 2012 is not the year is implodes......but right NOW....this very day......just look around you at what is happening and tell me that we are not on the "edge of the abyss"......those aren't my words ......those are quotes from Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson on September 15, 2008. As the Kress Cycle so correctly predicted that abyss WOULD HAVE TO WAIT. Now maybe the Kress cycle is wrong this time but it said it would wait until 2012 to begin going into the final phase. From everything I can see now.....today.....they seem to have it timed fairly accurately. gl.......PS go fish ....enjoy life. I do.


Saturday, July 28, 2012


The cataclysmic culmination of the Grand Supercycle excesses is rapidly approaching. Only nature knows the ultimate timeline. You have some insight now and you need to recognize this advantage. YOU KNOW that up is NOT down. YOU KNOW that black is NOT white. However this is what you are fed now on a continuum. Its in virtually every aspect of our daily existence now. We receive daily revelations of company earnings disappointments from previously downgraded estimates and they still send the stock up after the announced disappointments. You can not defy gravity indefinitely because nature' laws cannot be violated. Remember the old adage....It's not nice to fool mother nature...well if you think that is just a trivial truth then you need to go look at the on the ground aftermath of Japans northeast coast.....maybe you think the current drought in this country's bread basket can be as easily swept under the rug as the devastating BP oil spill was. If you believe that it's all behind us down there, I suggest you go and talk to the Gulf shrimpers and the unbiased scientists studying its impact. Are we headed to an "End of the World" supercycle cleansing? I have no way of knowing that and I will not even allow that conclusion to be part of my planning. That has NO upside to my balance sheet. But I do consider the distinct possibility that economic hardships do loom in the next few years and that the term the "piper must be paid" will come to the fore. Foolish behavior to me is to have ostrich like behavior and disregard simple preparations for this probability. NOTE THE WORD PROBABILITY NOT POSSIBILITY. I do believe that we will have to pay a price for our excess and greed. ME included....that is inevitable in my book and is not "doom and gloom". I periodically have talked about a conversation with a friend over 25 years ago when we were debating the Reagan deficit budgets and his comments about the exploding overall deficit still echo in my memory. He was a "fiscal conservative" and because of his ideology refused to acknowledge that we were sowing the seeds of a financial Armageddon. Little did I realize that they were distorting the rules of nature with a little known instrument called a "derivative". It was something that was not even discussed in the financial mainstream then or for that matter anywhere. It was a sophisticated type of ponzi designed to circumvent the typical constraints on leverage and money supply laws. It would be codified eventually through a number of law and rule changes including ultimately the firing of Brooksley Born    http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/warning/interviews/born.html
This was then followed by the repeal of Glass Steagal by Clinton and Phil Graham....don't waste your time debating whether the dems or reps were involved.....it doesn't matter and it only shows you still don't "get it" if you are even concerned about those issues. Today we are only going to address what WE can control and it is limited......VERY LIMITED.

If you are holding physical metals then you are way ahead of most people. If you are trying to protect your daily living environment with simple safeguards and food and water considerations then you are way way ahead of most. It does not require and end of the world scenario to bring in food and energy shortages. I have lived through those times in the 70's and they are not pleasant. If I am right about this time it may be more sever than the 70's by a factor of 10. The PTB will print and they already are. This is a zombie economy right now and even the average peep knows something is wrong, but of course will not take action. The climate of CONfidence is so strained right now that even the talking heads on CNBS are confused and argumentative discussing this very topic that used to be Tabboo. Their discussions when they delve into the money ponzi border on hilarious.....and provide an entertainment value that makes me glad I have the volume on when I hear them struggling to discuss this subject. It is so awkward for them and they usually stumble so badly it becomes a virtual comedy act. Just this week they had Sandy Weil on in "Dramatic" revelation that Big Banks need to broken up. Just hilarious that the "architect" of this creation now is trotted out by his puppet masters to call for their break up. Oh my........as Doc Holiday once said to Wyatt..."The limits of my hypocrisy know no bounds".... well folks hold tight.....people are going to reach panic levels and they will be looking for assets that have no counterparty risk.......gl if you understand the ramifications of that simple statement. The following vid was contributed by Morla.....

Wednesday, July 25, 2012


No one is hardly noticing the developing catastrophe facing our food supply. Therefore I guess this must border on fear-mongering. Maybe we can spray a dispersent on it and say its all fine, but this plague could just develop into the full blown black swan that so many have been expecting to hit the Just In Time food delivery set up in this country. After all, with a three day supply of food in all major U.S. cities we should be just fine with pizza delivery or Chinese carry-out until the crops recover. There is no significant rain in the forecast in the middle of the country for the next seven days and temperatures are predicted to be extreme. That is only adding insult to injury to a corn crop and posing an unrecoverable set up for beans. I will defer to some of you more qualified to comment in your areas like Ken and Matt but here in the center of Missouri it is a profound disaster. Farmers are liquidating cattle on a massive scale now and see no hope of feeding through the winter. Well water in the northern half of the state is in jeopardy. Many farmers have already bought hay from western Missouri weeks ago and it is getting increasingly hard to find as the drought has threatened any further cuttings from that area. Unless we get sustained soaking rains there will be no fall pasture, which might get some of the herd holdouts through. If no significant late summer and fall rain occurs then you will have the breed herds liquidated completely as happened in many parts of Texas last year. It looks like the drought is spreading to Europe and Asia too.

Now we are beginning to have a perfect storm developing worldwide. There may be a stick save recovery and we can put on our rose colored glasses and hope, but my advice is to take precautions now and laugh later that nothing materialized. Then you can donate your stash to a food bank. Anyone on the ground with positive views on this PLEASE comment. We could use something to lift us here.


We are entering the end game of the Grand Supercycle washout. How this unravels is not for us to guess.....this is a massive Bear that we are in and in these Bear markets you are NOT going to get on the Bear....it is meant to EAT YOU. YOU are the target......NOT the market. Timing this is not for your retail traders....or for that matter 90% of your Hedgees. They'll be eaten too by this bear. When gold and silver and the miners move they will NOT want you on their wagon. It may be hard to take this consolidation but if you understand its purpose then perhaps you can trade it. Its all about getting you out of the trade and out of your shares. They are accumulating them at ever cheaper prices and it will eventually turn. As I have repeatedly pointed out until I have become quite unpopular and tuned out by even my buddies.......they are not going to let you trade this next move up.......it WILL be breathtaking. Holding your shares OR trading them will be extremely difficult. Physical gold and silver bought through your local coin shops remains the only sane investment and you can thank the Cabal for keeping the prices in this range. Enjoy your opportunity and the very best of luck to all of you.......

John Hathaway on KWN today had this to say  “This year long consolidation is in its final stages, and I don’t think gold is going to creep higher when that gets resolved.  I think gold is going to move very explosively and not give all of the people who sold it a chance to get back in.  Once you have that (turn in the gold price), I think the mining stocks are going to be terrific.

If gold went from $1,600, where it is today, to $2,000, that’s a 25% move.  That to me is not a very big deal.  It would confirm the next leg is going, but I don’t think the next leg will start off meekly.  It will start off with a bang.  So could we see gold over $2,000 by year end?  I wouldn’t be surprised.”

Monday, July 23, 2012


IS THE LINE. That line. The line that Ben Bernanke studied and saw many times during his academic years while he researched the Great Depression. His entire life was geared to be here in this position to captain the World's economic ship. THIS IS THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS! This is a financial system collapse built on a House of Cards of Leverage that defies the ability of 99% of peeps to even begin to grasp.....at least in some simple mathematical equation. Its the ultimate Ponzi. It is such an incredible stretch of economic principles that no one really fully understands the implications of its reach. Essentially, the formation of the Bretton Woods agreement gave the puppet masters the ability to use the Reserve Currency of the dollar to run the power of the U.S. and the G7 into the 21st Century by playing a Madoff scam on the resource rich developing nation. In exchange for a printable fiat currency that was backed by air and the threat of an iron fist.......the scheme took the precious resources and cheap labor until it could no longer hide the math and the obvious internal structural collapse that had developed within its own borders. You and I have been participants......witting and unwitting.....but nonetheless........participants. That makes all of you Madoff family members. Now we have reached and interesting point in the game. This is the part where everyone at the table is looking around at the other players wondering which one is going to blink first. Its analogous to the scene where the camera pans under the table in the movie and each person at the table has a pistol in their hand or on their thigh aimed towards someone else at the table just twitching to pull the trigger as tension builds to a climax. We are there and this game is going to explode.

Ben knows this and has so much more information than we do. Ben has one last BIG card to play if he wishes to and that is the QE of all QEs. It most likely will not work and he knows that but it can give us an extension of our rendezvous with destiny. Ben will not decide destiny....he will only arrange our meeting. Maybe Ben is oblivious or ignorant of what he is doing, but I don't buy that analysis of him. I think he knows the outcome and he knows how this plays out. Ben cannot fix the fiscal and structural deficits built by horrific monetary and political policy. He cannot fix our demographics. He can no longer shield us from dwindling resources. These issues will have to be faced eventually. We will most likely have to be reintroduced to these market variables out of necessity rather than choice. Pay attention to what I tell you now. NO ONE can tell you THE answer to how this will play out. Just take some simple precautions. AFTER you have taken the steps that you feel are adequate over the next few months then you can "rest". At least for awhile. If the cycles are right the convulsions of years of evil will begin and hopefully we will meet on the other side saying "that wasn't so bad".....at least that's my plan.

from ZH

Sunday, July 22, 2012


Collapse? Quite the statement, but does it really matter and can you even define it. A variety of definitions can define "collapse" in relation to the economy. A multitude of sins may ensue before the conclusion that "collapse" has occurred. A drought induced food inflation spike would trigger collapse. A breakout in all out Middle East war with Iran would trigger a collapse in an economy on a cliff. Of course the peeps attention would NOT be on the economy but on "the war". The peeps attention was focused virtually 24/7 on the tragic Colorado shooting this weekend.....NOT the economy. Strange times that we are witnessing as economic tensions become compressed. By now it has become obvious to most of us that care, the system is in tremendous jeopardy. How the "system" resets is the big question, but reset it will. Will a very powerful few maintain their control and the current direction or will there be a new direction and justice established? Julien Benda said that "we have a choice in life. We can serve privilege and power or we can serve justice and truth. And those of us who commit to serving justice and truth, the more we make concessions to those who serve privilege and power, the more we dilute the possibilities of justice and truth". Please take the one hour to watch and listen to the below video. If you want to try to understand what has happened to our society and some of the underlying struggles that we are undergoing then this will help you greatly. If you are curious what makes me tick then this is 100% what I see.

On the other hand if you find this objectionable material BEFORE you even listen to his analysis then I can only say you are part of the problem and deserve everything that you get. We may not be able to control what is coming but we can do something to control ourselves and how we perform in the upcoming day of reckoning........and there IS a day of reckoning coming.....one way or another....for ALL of us.

Thanks for the weekend report Matt.

I know that some of you are reading this blog to try and trade this treacherous market and some of you read this to just protect yourself and your family from what you feel is a mounting fear of a perceived threat from the financial ponzi that has been inflicted upon you and the world. Our system that has allowed us as a country to overindulge ourselves and use the dollar as the world's reserve currency,  is and will continue to go through some significant changes. I hope you are able to understand that your paradigms of managing your wealth and your family's future is going to be dramatically disrupted in the coming months and years. Many of you have no idea what a major depression will do to you and your future.

Thursday, July 19, 2012


Right now we have slipped into a stalemate in the market for precious metals equity investors. The control of the market must be maintained by the boyz above or chaos follows quickly. As mentioned here on numerous previous occasions the headline price of gold must be contained to prevent a flashing warning light for the peeps. As long as the gold price remains stable then the value of the world's reserve currency will remain stable. The reserve currency status is critical to keeping the game going so make no mistake the price of gold is being watched very closely by everyone. Cliff Droke had an excellent post describing how investors are watching the machinations in gold and are waiting for the crowd to move.

His cycle analysis AND precious metal analysis has been spot on. Can you use it to trade gold? I can't...but then maybe some of you can. On the other hand I do not want to ignore his view of the bigger picture on PMs and that is the longer term direction in them and that is UP! Many of you may look at some of the last few months in PMs with dismay but if you have then I wonder what part of a manipulated market you have not been able to accept. We're in trouble and this situation is reaching a major turning point. Unless we get a tremendously large injection of print money then we are going to enter into a crisis phase that's irreversible. THAT'S because we are losing CONfidence in virtually all aspects of our market and our political institutions. This must be contained or things will rapidly deteriorate....so more dramatic events ahead folks. In the meantime we are still in an accumulation phase in PM's and PM equities. Many of you may not have trading cash to take advantage of any further beatdowns and are just holding long. Unfortunately I am with that crowd but I am sleeping well. Why you may ask. As I told a banker bud of mine from Texas a few months ago....."Where in the hell WOULD I park my money in this mess outside of physical?" I have accounts that are hard to exit the market without penalties and I sleep very well knowing they aren't in USD or general equities......hope you do too. This is what Caesar Bryan from Gabelli which manages 31Billion had to say yesterday on KWN....   I find it astonishing that people want to invest in governments with a negative return, yet they appear to be fearful of investing in solid companies, with strong balance sheets, and dividend yields of 3%, 4% and sometimes 5%.  It appears to be somewhat of a dichotomy.  

Would you rather invest in the government of France, who’s Ten-Year bonds are yielding 2%, or top notch international companies such as Novartis, Roche, Diageo or Nestle? 

What does this reflect?  I think it reflects fear.  Investors just need to focus on real assets and this reflected by solid corporations, and of course the best real asset is gold.  Gold is in the summer doldrums right now, but I expect the next move in gold will be upwards.

I would recommend that investors use this quiet summer period to accumulate real assets, and as I said, the most important one is gold.  I would also add gold equities to that list.  They represent great value.  There have recently been three takeover attempts in small gold stocks.  The interesting thing is they were all-cash offers.  These takeover attempts were done at large premiums, but at a big discount off of the 52 week highs.”

Quick note on the drought. We are in trouble. This nation had better get rain and a lot of it this year. That's not for this years crop......its done for......its for next year. THAT IS THE BIGGER RISK! Some of you that read this blog can add more over the coming weeks and months on this matter and your comments are greatly valued from your knowledge and on the ground first-hand experience. Last night serious liquidation of cattle due to NO hay available began in earnest in this area. GL

BTW......take a look at this Droke chart.........Unbelievable!!!!......That's what you call power...

Indeed, gold is already technically “oversold” on a longer-term basis as we’ve discussed in recent commentaries.  The 10-month price oscillator for gold has registered its most sold out reading for gold in 10 years (see chart below).  While this is an important consideration for serious longer-term investors, it hasn’t done anything to attract the “hot money” crowd.

Tuesday, July 17, 2012


Just as the 30's ushered in financial hardship and the worst heat and drought conditions for a hundred years, so goes this century's latest natural calamity. We survived a monumental oil spill since the financial collapse and we survived a tsunami and earthquake of epic proportions. We survived the nuclear meltdown following the tsunami.....at least for now.....maybe. Now a biblical catastrophe is developing in the heartland that has repercussions that even the puppetmasters cannot contain. As mentioned on this blog by some of its participants in the past.......only nature is more powerful than the cabal.....and nature has its own timetable. A severe food crisis would trigger unimaginable pain for the peeps and that includes us. I just returned from a survey in the cornbelt and its becoming epic. Wells are drying up and precious water for livestock is fast disappearing. Without well water many farmers will begin liquidating herds of cattle.....sending prices briefly lower but eventually triggering a chain of events far beyond just higher prices. Corn prices will become volatile triggering supply and JIT disruptions that could trigger stampedes of hording....not just corn but all food staples. CONfidence is a nasty actor......hard to establish but very easy to lose. I am not a meteorologist and all I can do is report what is happening on the ground in the center of the drought and it is becoming critical. People are expecting everything to be "taken care of", but right now nature is in control. If things become desperate just be careful and prepared. We need rain and we need a lot of it now. Its probably not coming. Back in town and happy to be here......We are nearing an enormous move in gold and silver.......hold on now and play investor......NO overtrading this next move.....just trade around your positions.

From Stephen Leeb today.... I have known this guy for years and he has been total establishment investor ....now listen to THIS

I spoke to you last time about how the establishment has banks taking in customer’s gold and turning right around and leasing it to the bullion banks in order to suppress the price of gold.  The banks continue to charge the customers for holding their gold as ‘allocated,’ even though the gold has gone out the door to aid in the gold price suppression scheme.

This is fraud plain and simple, but this fraud is being encouraged by the establishment.  I would say I’ve never really believed in conspiracies, but for the first time I am saying that if you want to have gold, you have to have the physical gold.  This can be accomplished by owning something like the Sprott Gold Trust.  But I’m getting nervous about the ETF GLD.  You cannot accept GLD as being safe anymore.  

So you really have the makings of a war between establishment and the non-establishment.  And what makes this so intriguing is that on the non-establishment side you have a very, very big partner in China.  In China, let’s say you have a $10 million account and you go into a bank and say you want $500,000 of gold, they’ll give it to you.  

Contrast that to the Western banks which are leasing out the gold that customers have entrusted to them.  The Chinese want their citizenry to own gold.  The total amount of gold in China has to be enormous and growing. 

All of the factors I’m discussing with you today are precisely the reasons why I no longer believe gold has major downside risk.  At one point I was telling KWN readers that if Europe cracked we could see some major selling of gold and a bout of weakness.  I no longer believe that to be the case. KWN today

MOSCOW, July 18 (Reuters) - A Russian government commission on food security met on Wednesday and discussed state intervention in the domestic grain market as the preferred method of cooling prices this year, an Agriculture Ministry spokesman said.
"There is no new information on interventions," Dmitry Bobkov said by telephone. "The issue is still under discussion and depends on market conditions."

Sunday, July 15, 2012


How's that for stating the obvious. But of course you can't quite put your finger on it because there are so many choices for "something".....maybe we should replace "something" with EVERYTHING. On September 15, 2008 Hank Paulson, Ben Bernanke, and a group composed of all the U.S. pols stepped onto a stage and told the world the system was on the verge of collapse and they had just saved it. They were actually being relatively truthful. The lie was they had NOT saved it....they had only plugged an enormous leak that did indeed threaten and immediate collapse. Many that pay attention to these events really don't want to admit just how vulnerable they are to this system. As the globalization and corporatist cabal manages an ever increasingly complex system that has been leveraged into the stratosphere, an ever increasing risk of a nuclear risk event develops. Our over-simplification of the risk may do an injustice to just how increasingly unmanageable this risk really is. More simply stated.....The current ever increasing globally managed banking AND goods production has introduced a risk that is systemic now to the ENTIRE world. Extrapolate the below example for instance. The ripple effect would be what? Try this simple event.........

When Trucks Stop, America Stops
A Timeline Showing the Deterioration of Major Industries Following a Truck Stoppage
The first 24 hours
• Delivery of medical supplies to affected areas will cease.
• Hospitals will run out of basic supplies such as syringes and catheters within hours. Radiopharmaceuticals
will deteriorate and become unusable.
• Service stations will begin to run out of fuel.
• Manufacturers using JIT manufacturing will develop component shortages.
• US mail and other package delivery will cease.
Within one day
••• Food shortages will begin to develop.
••• Automobile fuel availability and delivery will dwindle, leading to sky-rocketing prices and long lines at
the gas pumps.
••• Without manufacturing components and trucks for product delivery, assembly lines will shut down putting
thousands out of work.
Within two to three days
• Food shortages will escalate, especially in the face of hoarding and consumer panic.
• Supplies of essentials such as bottled water, powdered milk, and canned meat at major retailers will
• ATMs will run out of cash and banks will be unable to process transactions.
• Service stations will completely run out of fuel for autos and trucks.
• Garbage will start piling up in urban and suburban areas.
• Container ships will sit idle in ports and rail transport will be disrupted eventually coming to a standstill.
Within a week
• Automobile travel will cease due to lack of fuel. Without autos and busses, many people will not be able to
get to work, shop for groceries, or access medical care.
• Hospitals will begin to exhaust oxygen supplies.
Within two weeks
• The nation’s clean water will begin to run dry.
Within 4 weeks
• The nation will exhaust its clean water supply and  water will be safe only after boiling. As a result
gastrointestinal illness will increase, further taxing an already weakened health care system.
   Holcomb, R When Trucks Stop, America Stops American Trucking Association


The entire system runs on confidence. It is essential for the system. CONfidence must be maintained as we have discussed in the past because the fiat currencies have NOTHING backing them other than confidence. Think about it. You have to believe that the currency will maintain its value over a time line longer than a few months. That leaves us in the conundrum. If the dollar strengthens too far then the velocity of money will remain too low as deflationary forces exert their control. You have to have confidence in the system and its currency's future for investment by the private sector or you have a problem. The puppetmasters know very well that gold and silver serve as the proverbial canary in the coal mine for too many participants. The headline price of these metals must be controlled to buy time for the system to heal. Unfortunately the complexities of the system have reached an absurd level. Hand it to the puppet masters.....they have kept this game going to this point in spite of Volcanoes, oil spills, wars, civil wars, floods, drouts, and a variety of other impediments that would crush most systems. We're walking on ice so don't get too comfortable. You can't do much about it but you can do some things to try and help you through the next phase of the game. Prepare accordingly.