Saturday, July 28, 2012

BEN'S WORGEN

The cataclysmic culmination of the Grand Supercycle excesses is rapidly approaching. Only nature knows the ultimate timeline. You have some insight now and you need to recognize this advantage. YOU KNOW that up is NOT down. YOU KNOW that black is NOT white. However this is what you are fed now on a continuum. Its in virtually every aspect of our daily existence now. We receive daily revelations of company earnings disappointments from previously downgraded estimates and they still send the stock up after the announced disappointments. You can not defy gravity indefinitely because nature' laws cannot be violated. Remember the old adage....It's not nice to fool mother nature...well if you think that is just a trivial truth then you need to go look at the on the ground aftermath of Japans northeast coast.....maybe you think the current drought in this country's bread basket can be as easily swept under the rug as the devastating BP oil spill was. If you believe that it's all behind us down there, I suggest you go and talk to the Gulf shrimpers and the unbiased scientists studying its impact. Are we headed to an "End of the World" supercycle cleansing? I have no way of knowing that and I will not even allow that conclusion to be part of my planning. That has NO upside to my balance sheet. But I do consider the distinct possibility that economic hardships do loom in the next few years and that the term the "piper must be paid" will come to the fore. Foolish behavior to me is to have ostrich like behavior and disregard simple preparations for this probability. NOTE THE WORD PROBABILITY NOT POSSIBILITY. I do believe that we will have to pay a price for our excess and greed. ME included....that is inevitable in my book and is not "doom and gloom". I periodically have talked about a conversation with a friend over 25 years ago when we were debating the Reagan deficit budgets and his comments about the exploding overall deficit still echo in my memory. He was a "fiscal conservative" and because of his ideology refused to acknowledge that we were sowing the seeds of a financial Armageddon. Little did I realize that they were distorting the rules of nature with a little known instrument called a "derivative". It was something that was not even discussed in the financial mainstream then or for that matter anywhere. It was a sophisticated type of ponzi designed to circumvent the typical constraints on leverage and money supply laws. It would be codified eventually through a number of law and rule changes including ultimately the firing of Brooksley Born    http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/warning/interviews/born.html
This was then followed by the repeal of Glass Steagal by Clinton and Phil Graham....don't waste your time debating whether the dems or reps were involved.....it doesn't matter and it only shows you still don't "get it" if you are even concerned about those issues. Today we are only going to address what WE can control and it is limited......VERY LIMITED.

If you are holding physical metals then you are way ahead of most people. If you are trying to protect your daily living environment with simple safeguards and food and water considerations then you are way way ahead of most. It does not require and end of the world scenario to bring in food and energy shortages. I have lived through those times in the 70's and they are not pleasant. If I am right about this time it may be more sever than the 70's by a factor of 10. The PTB will print and they already are. This is a zombie economy right now and even the average peep knows something is wrong, but of course will not take action. The climate of CONfidence is so strained right now that even the talking heads on CNBS are confused and argumentative discussing this very topic that used to be Tabboo. Their discussions when they delve into the money ponzi border on hilarious.....and provide an entertainment value that makes me glad I have the volume on when I hear them struggling to discuss this subject. It is so awkward for them and they usually stumble so badly it becomes a virtual comedy act. Just this week they had Sandy Weil on in "Dramatic" revelation that Big Banks need to broken up. Just hilarious that the "architect" of this creation now is trotted out by his puppet masters to call for their break up. Oh my........as Doc Holiday once said to Wyatt..."The limits of my hypocrisy know no bounds".... well folks hold tight.....people are going to reach panic levels and they will be looking for assets that have no counterparty risk.......gl if you understand the ramifications of that simple statement. The following vid was contributed by Morla.....


39 comments:

  1. The real bank runs will not be those at your local street corner. The final fireworks will be when the uber rich who have not prepared realize the game is over and try and take their ill hidden loot out of the various tax havens around the world at the same time. It will make Madoff look like a boy scout. Imagine tens of trillions of dubious virtual cash trying to chase both real and hard assets flooding the global system as the masses riot over energy and food inflation.

    I will leave up to your imagination why the uber rich will want to convert their virtual hidden loot into real assets at about the same time somewhere over the next 12-24 months.

    Only problem is time is running out for everyone.

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  2. NOT FAIR!!!! at least drop a few more hints why it will be at the same time.....or ...i have to give mine.....and i like yours better red

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  3. But, but, do the tax haven banks engage in fractional reserve banking? hmmmmm? Sorry Mr. Billions we leveraged your money on the GLD! hehehe.

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  4. Yep sheeps. Here's some math to think about the interest rates range currently from 1-3% on between 21 to 32 trillion. Everything not bolted down is already legitimately indebted 1.5x over and leveraged 10x over globally.

    If the public numbers are to be believed accurate, where do you come up with the interest payments on this funny money, 210 to 960 billion annually. Last time I checked Cayman Islands S&L wasn't advertising home equity loans in the Wall Street Journal.

    US total debt is at 15.85 trillion with the annual deficit running now at 1.2 trillion. Essentially all hard assets are severely impaired relative to the outstanding debt, multiple claims, and orders of magnitude leveraging on top of that.

    Once the reality situation hits home along with nature's wrath, the cabals threatened sanctions on its members won't stop the panic in the burning theatre. Only at the very top of the power pyramid is the conjecture of the future known, and they are not building new platforms to support anymore.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/ericjackson/2012/07/24/the-global-elite-may-be-hiding-32-trillion-in-offshore-tax-havens-but-the-best-solution-may-be-to-lower-their-tax-rates-instead-of-raising-them/print/

    legitimate total global debt coming due

    http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/articles/en/us/?assetID=1245333370039

    $350 trillion derivatives against $20 trillion of hard assets.

    http://www.examiner.com/article/solving-the-350-trillion-derivatives-market-time-bomb-applying-leverage-debt-re

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  5. Offshore banking for tyrants has been the greatest Ponzi Scam of the past quarter century. It has kept money earmarked for aid and domestic spending (both social and military) off the global stage, this has helped to contain price and power (influence) inflation (doesn't cost much to peddle influence to corrupt local officials. Money for domestic military industry and social programs are curtailed with promises of untraceable bank accounts, no tax liabilities and competitive supposedly risk free returns.

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  6. Neither a borrower nor a lender be; hehehehehe


    Not surprising but truly diabolical, really shows how easy it is to play the plebes,


    http://www.governing.com/news/state/mct-donors-who-bailed-out-california-parks-want-their-money-back.html


    Red,

    Since you put it as eloquently as you usually do, I’ll indulge myself in a little Schadenfreude, while I’m chewing on my end of the misery meat, I’ll take perverse pleasure in knowing some of the bastards that got us here are chewing the other end……..

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  7. Hello everyone.

    I went to my niece's wedding this weekend which took place in a small town south of Rochester, New York. Needless-to-say, various conversations took place.

    Perhaps you are already aware that drought is present here too. On the drive out, the fields of corn were green and had tassels, but I came to learn the ears are of poor quality. I have an older cousin who is retired dairy farmer, but keeps active with the farming news here. So, I picked his brain. He told me that he has a friend that planted a field of sweet corn (1/2 mile by 1 mile size) and the pollenation was poor. The ears were small and only a portion filled with kernals. He wasn't able to sell it. Also, he mentioned about soybeans, and that there is concern that the plants won't form beans. Also, mentioned about fruit trees. This March, we had warm weather with temps. in the 80's (broke all the records). This caused the fruit trees to form their blossoms early, but then we hard hard frosts again in April which killed them. So, he tells me that the peach and cherry harvest will be poor. Apples might be OK. He tells me some apple trees have apples only on 1 side, since the wind must have been such that 1/2 of the tree escaped the frost.
    I asked him whether it is possible for the small family farm to do well in New York. "No!, it is way too expensive now. You have to be big to survive". Just the equipment is expensive. He tells me that a combine that can cut and process 8 rows of corn at a time costs $300K+. I did mention that he knows a Mennonite dairy farmer that is doing well, but he explains that the Mennonite community helps one other. This farmer is milking 1500 cows. When my cousin had his small daily farm, he was milking 60 cows. So you can see that scale that someone needs now.

    As for politics, everyone I spoke with is still stuck at the Republican/Democrat stage. My sister who was a big Obama supporter is completely disillusioned. When I tried to explain that there is really not much of a difference, all I got was smiles. "Well,...we have to get Romney in there,...what other choice do we have??" So, basically they feel we only have 2 choices, so we have to pick one.

    When I tried to explain how our lives depend on systems(water, gas (power), electric, etc) and that those systems are in states of disrepair--only more smiles & blank stares were generated. The concept that Mother nature is still around and could hurt us was completely foreign to them.

    As all these various conversations took place, no one spontaneously brought up anything about any pending economic/financial collapse. I made a special point not to mention it, so as to see if someone might actually say,..."Gee, I heard that a collapse is coming." But, no one did.

    So, no real change from a year ago. People seem to know that something is wrong, but they are not actively trying to figure it out.

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  8. Author makes some interesting comments although some show their political leanings but I liked the wrap up..........

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-bypassing-government-roadblocks-your-personal-prosperity

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  9. Doc,

    Our brother in laws family used to run a small dairy farm on the Southern Tier they got out a long time ago, as he puts it pushed out by the big boys....... Freaking Shame upstate used to be dotted with family farms.......

    However its a good thing for them they are fracking round his parts and selling mineral rights away for royalty's or else the poverty round there would be third world like

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  10. great posts all...doing a 100 mile trip south today....have crossed the state west....north...and now south ...all this weeks and it is bad......fried!

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  11. Never mind the Olympics looks like Our Guberment is getting ready for some games of our own........



    http://rt.com/usa/news/dhs-unrest-gear-283/

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  12. Tom,

    My cousin is older than me and has been out of farming for a long time. He sold his land. His kids are my age and none of them wanted the farm. I guess they knew back then that the small family farm would fail. However, he did tell me that back those days, that within a several mile radius from his farm, there were several other small family farms. They would cover for each other if one needed to be away. Those cows had to be milked, whether the farmer was away or not.

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  13. Here is an Interview with JoeL Salatin on the drought and framing, with Chris Martenson, it's long about an hour.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bT-_C7wDU1w&feature=g-all-u

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  14. Here's a quote from Kli a couple years ago...

    "W.C. the conundrum will be resolved as the QE monetization eventually fails in 2012.....until then you are right ...no TRUE deflation. We have embarked on a path of no return but as "hyperstagflation" ramps in 2011 the masses will rebel and and the Volckerization will begin see(law of nature) the solution will be short term horrific..but so will the preceding stagflation."

    And another gem from 2009...what a vintage year to be bearish:

    "We remain in asset deflation including deflation of home prices, job market,,etc but the essential cost of goods/services including taxes will remain high till 2012 due to print machine and monetizing debt, then true deflation will take over from 2012 thru 2014."

    Immred may think he's funny but it's funny how wrong he's been, and kli has only a short window before he is proven completely wrong.

    By wrong, I mean both are guilty of confusing imminent and inevitable. Must suck to be so inflexible.

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    Replies
    1. and what part of those predictions are so wrong???? hehehhehehe I think red and I are perfectly comfortable with our prior statements.....AND will stand by them.....but a good food fight is always fun....what are your predictions Fitzy?

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    2. this is not a Turd Ferguson neocon controlled blog.....:-) WE HAVE NO MODERATOR JANE......SHE IS PURE SCUM....whoops.....I think that was a little mean..................but accurat

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  15. May you find your own solace and come to peace with yourself Fitzy. Please participate further, all thought out discourses are welcomed along with well constructed criticisms.

    The good moments in life a short and one should enjoy them. Find peace with yourself and your situation. Fate and Nature are demanding mistresses.

    Basically most of the population will be screwed no matter how hard they try and prepare. The truly hard part will be trying to maintain dignified humility through the adversity and insanity.

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  16. Just to think Fitzy how bad things have gotten for so many people since then. OMG! Homeless for many. Walking away from their homes they can't afford, jobs market is poor. The Fed's can kick the can down the road and have for years. But the truth is they can't forever. I have seen my property Taxes go from 2100 per year to 3400 per year since 2007. Other than planting fruit trees and putting in a wind generator I haven't done anything to cause that kind of rise.. Sure the world still spins and the Fed's of the world still print and time lines of a collapse are hard to predict but it's here and has been here for a while just papered over and out of sight of the sheeps.. Every night I thank God That I have had the extra time to get ready for whats here. And let me tell you what. Things I bought and stored years ago I would sure hate to have to buy now. The costs would be so so much more. For that I'm smiling big time..

    On to the drought.. Did you guys see the grain futures at open last night? Corn up 20 cents beans up 45 cents.. The Feds are going to have to try to keep things down here or else. It's going to be a crazy ride at the open of the pit trade. My uncle knows now what is corn crop will do. 95 to 105 per acre. Last year he got a avg of 185 per acre he has insurance and will be fine. Soy beans are hurting and just won't set on beans or fill out the pods that are on. We are still waiting on rain and now we need a lot of it before the ground freeze's up this winter which could be a early as first week or two in November some years.. Guess will see. Have a great week..
    Matt

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  17. I'm not high and mighty. Just pointing out that kli and immred have been consistently saying 2012 was THE YEAR the cycles turn down hard, and while the year ain't over it certainly seems unlikely it will be this year.

    Everyone is not suffering equally. There are pockets of prosperity in the US that have nothing to do with being a 1%-er or bankster and that shouldn't change much even if the economic outlook worsens considerably.

    Has it ever occurred to anyone the cycles people follow here are off, or that other cycles are in play which are not being accounted for?

    We have seen inflation, but it's not been so bad that people can't eat, more that we spend more on food than we like and less on other things.

    Looking ahead to 2013 it seems recession is a lock, but I don't know, I don't see what is going to cause it to be a deflationary collapse.

    My eyes are open, but everything which has been forecast for 2012 here for years looks to be wrong. JMO.

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  18. On the run big time today.....yes fitzy there are other cycles in play as the Droke article stated a few months ago and they DO have an impact to hold the market up until the latter part of 2012....see ya all later...will find the droke article later

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  19. Dallas FED no bueno.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/dallas-fed-plunges-most-over-7-years-10-month-low-biggest-miss-14-months

    GDM up against long haul resistance. Looks to break thru.

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  20. Fitzy,

    This analogy from John Mauldin's book "The Endgame" helped me at least understand the complexity of the situation.

    He writes that there were some scientists that wrote a computer program that would drop grains of sand onto a pile. The individual sand grains had different shapes and thus would interlock with other sand grains uniquely within the pile. The computer could drop these sand grains at computer speed and thus the pile would grow at computer speed. Eventually, the pile would grow to a size and then collapse. The dropping of the last grain of sand would finally collapse the pile. They would run this program over & over.

    What they discovered is that these piles of sand would collapse differently. Sometimes, just one side of the pile would collapse. Othertimes, the center, and still other times there would be a devastating collapse of the entire pile. As each pile of sand grew, fault lines would develop and entend within the pile. These fault lines were unique and could not be seen as the pile grew, and thus the final shape of the collapsed pile could not be predicted.

    Mauldin felt that what is going on within our global economy is similar to these piles of sand. Fault lines are extending throughout the global economy and they cannot be fully seen or understood. At some point, there will be a final event and the economy will collapse. Just how it will collapse and when is unknown. Some people will be fine and minimally affected, but others will be devastated by the collapse.

    So you are right that some people are doing fine and may continue to do fine throughout this whole ordeal. But there are others that may be doing fine now, but won't be later.

    Perhaps that helps.

    Keep posting what you see and believe.

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  21. anybody thinking about the squeeze play possibilities for JAG

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    Replies
    1. you are doing your homework well chuck........as usual

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  22. My little unfriendly contact with the local chp...

    My grandaughter went off to college...I have her vehicle which I maintain, repair and now sell for her.

    I try to stay away from Oceanside and the little town of Fallbrook is nearby. The vehicle would be good another teen or perhaps the Hispanics. Fallbrook is full of both.

    Now mind you for years I have seen cars for sale at various locations in the town. So I take off for town and park at a location that I have seen cars for sale. Another car already parked has a ticket..$62 bucks or 10% of the price of the vehicle.

    Just then a moto cop speeds across the street and in his best facist intimidation "you can't park here" there is a county ordiance evidently for displaying a for sale sign and parking on the road.

    I am pretty frustrated and mad at this time...So I say "out funding your pension?" kinda went into a rant...Wife was not impressed.

    No signs anywhere. No warnings just tickets. Pure bullshit. If I could leave California I would.

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  23. Fitzy's comment is very worthwhile for this blog given the context of the manipulation that is present to delude the "market" (which is code for us sheep) to believe that there is a "way" out of this from the Central Banks and monetization via Global planning mechanisms.....I'll try and put up a more detailed post directly answering this issue......I have tried to present my strategy for dealing with this(especially over the past few months) IT IS VERY difficult to feel good about that position if your account is down big at this point OR you are losing on short term options playing it....but I'll try and give you my perspective later.....

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  24. Kli, I gave up reponding to the fitzy's. Since 2008 I have been a student of the market...reading all I can. While I do not know exactly how It will go down seems more than likely a massive adjustment will need to be made. China hording gold is a tell. Gold to be considered tier 1 a tell. The Libor scandal a tell. Soon the JPM manipultaion will come to light. The dollar will get weaker throught the expansion of the money supply. The debt will have to be dealt with China has the US by the tail. The US is in a recession, or a depression or very sluggish. Municpalities are failing. Corruption is out of control....

    Then there is this and why the can gets kicked and kicked and kicked....

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/who-jamie-dimon

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    1. OMG the comments on the ZH link are priceless

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  25. So far from my perspective it seems that the CNBS talking heads are setting the "market" up for a disappointment from the ECB this week......miners and gold will get punished.....so be prepared....IF I am right they will only form a higher low and set up for a MUCH bigger monetization announcement in September.....This is an absolute mess right now for the "real" underlying economy and banking sector....I cannot overemphasize Red's posts.....they are to be ignored at your own peril

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  26. Touchy trade in the miners...could go either way into the close. I would think a squeeze gets put on this PM.

    As far as the market..a lot of traders got caught short by Dragi. seems like 71% are bearish here. Seems like the markets could still rise on disapointment thru FED manipulation. Hopium til Thursday???

    PM's however will get punished when the FED punts. IMHO.

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    1. precisely......which is why we will be wrong.....hehehhehehehehehe......like I've said I will be holding and holding and holding........let um play

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  27. Reply not working......

    re: Fitzy

    This only is certain, that there is nothing certain; and nothing more miserable and yet more arrogant than man.

    Pliny ("The Elder") (23-79) Roman naturalist.

    "We have seen inflation, but it's not been so bad that people can't eat, more that we spend more on food than we like and less on other things."

    It's true "We the Plebe's" are still eating but remove the following and you might reconsider your thought process;

    http://chartsbin.com/view/1403

    Sheeps,

    Well tell the Mrs. I am!!!!! Gotta call it like it is but you left me hanging did you get to contribute to his retirement fund or not!!! If it makes you feel any better it’s no different here on right coast …… Nuthing but a bunch of 150k per year revenue enhancers.

    At this point just raise my taxes to what it needs to be and quit the nickel and dime crap!!! Never will to chicken chit!!!!!

    Btw: Matt I’ll take your property taxes over mine any day! :) I pay 15K annually for a 65*120 lot with a reasonable dwelling and a garage you can park one of those Stupid Car’s and a couple of Bicycles in!!

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    1. yes Tom .....re property taxes...these are "carrying costs" that many people fail to recognize that could turn into major liabilities for them......BEWARE of your "carrying costs"

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  28. Trust Me, I never forget, EVER!!!!

    Matter of fact, I question my level of intelligence bi-annually and get rather moody right about the same time!

    Although we "finally" have an exit strategy, took a while as the Mrs roots are deep here, 4 generations counting my rug rats, just hope it all stays together long enough for it to play out.

    Gotta admit though even if it does so, I am not too comfortable going to parts I’m unfamiliar although more affordable but not having my support of long time friends or contacts with folks that run things, a real catch 22 I suppose………..

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  29. Another warning note, avoid violence or association with armed groups and individuals. The upcoming crack down needs an excuse, avoid giving them one. Civil Disobedience can be as simple as not buy cable TV or not voting for the top 2 candidates in the major elections. Reason for the warning, recent Anon postings for armed rebellion circulating; very dangerous to get caught up in that psychop. Discretion is the better part of valor.

    Oh my taxes also went up for the similar Tom lot size from about 1400 to 1800.

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  30. Sure just go ahead and rub it in………. hehehehe, but gotta say your tax increase was pretty stout percentage wise!

    Sage Advice regarding the company you keep!

    “Non-violence is the greatest force at the disposal of mankind. It is mightier than the mightiest weapon of destruction devised by the ingenuity of man.”

    Gandhi

    Could you imagine the havoc caused, if everyone just stayed home and didn’t go out to play for just a week or two?

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  31. Well Tom, no ticket. If I had been given a ticket it would have been worth it so I feel I did pretty good.

    The down side is I am sure it was recorded and face recogninition was used......

    Still, I felt as if I stood up to the machine and called BS where there is BS. Ordanince this and that....

    I tell you more and more I do not feel safe leaving my house and it is not becuase of bad people.

    On a brighter note...I hope you all are growing your own and stacking seeds. I have never ate so well. Crazy how good organic vegetables taste.

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  32. first full candlestick over the 50sma on silver since late Feb.

    hmmmm...

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