Monday, July 30, 2012

COMING CYCLES


This is the end of the Grand Supercycle. Whether you are an adherent to the Kress cycles or not you only need to understand their underlying significance and their applicability to your positions as not only an investor but to your position as a member of the human race. If you take the premise that economic laws can be broken at will without consequences then of course these cycles are meaningless. Your premise then becomes that indeed the Fed does possess omnipotent power. Essentially you are agreeing that the law of nature no longer applies. In other words.......THIS TIME IT IS DIFFERENT!  Excess can become more excessive, and when that becomes too excessive then instead of deleveraging your excess from you evil/weak/stupid behavior and becoming expunged.......you simply TRIPLE DOWN with more leverage....further bailing out and extending the evil/weak/stupid behavior. This continued violation of nature's law not once...not twice....but over and over....now becomes a moral hazard of epic proportions. Much like the analogy that was given with the computerized mountain of sand.....eventially collapsing. Cycles are patterns involving a combination of many patterns combining human behavior such as greed and fear. Kress cycles also use election cycles and the Fed in their cycles. They also use generational amnesia as a part of their behavior analysis. Do you remember the Great Depression?

Timing all of this cannot be made to perfectly as anyone with common sense would easily admit, but it is going to transpire. You only have to look at now versus a few years ago and see just how much confidence is eroding within the "system". As mentioned previously CONfidence is paramount to the system. It must be maintained.....not diminished. Right now Confidence is eroding in virtually all areas of the economy. Fiat currency is entirely dependent on Confidence. Nothing backs most of the nation's fiat other than the faith in that piece of paper will be able to purchase the same quantity of goods and materials in the future. Right now fear is maintaining the purchasing power of the dollar vs other currency. But in time what will happen when the fear creeps in to ALL currencies? What happens when CONfidence collapses? If you deceive and deceive and trample the rule of law that has sustained CONfidence can there be a return to normal without providing a tangible backing to that piece of paper? We are now back to the question of what is the tipping point for the Grand Supercycle reset and will this cleansing need to happen. Or will we just manage to Muddle through. Will we just continue to fish basking in the warm, soothing glow of a late summer sun......oblivious to the looming crisis on the horizon. In other words a controlled world economy by Central Bankers DOES trump Nature's law. Well guess what. I don't have that answer....but I do have a guess and so do you. Maybe the Kress cycles will be off and 2012 is not the year is implodes......but right NOW....this very day......just look around you at what is happening and tell me that we are not on the "edge of the abyss"......those aren't my words ......those are quotes from Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson on September 15, 2008. As the Kress Cycle so correctly predicted that abyss WOULD HAVE TO WAIT. Now maybe the Kress cycle is wrong this time but it said it would wait until 2012 to begin going into the final phase. From everything I can see now.....today.....they seem to have it timed fairly accurately. gl.......PS go fish ....enjoy life. I do.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/fed-gold-price-manipulation

20 comments:

  1. What happens when you lower rates even further at the reserve window of major western central banks, print more fiat into circulation, in the face of food shortages? All the freshly minted fiat goes into a vicious cycle of food commodity speculation. Then guess what happens next.

    The central bank hope is if you pour more sand faster it will temporarily compress the current fractures as the mound gets bigger really fast. A global drought with a couple planned wars thrown in is like a series of larger earthquake underneath the sand pile.

    Lots of money to be made off the suffering of others, corn ethanol for example.

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  2. What happens when certain eastern sovereigns order an extra ship or two of grain as their crops are impacted by their monsoon droughts.......in an already constrained grain market.....hmmmmm....

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    1. will they ship??? OR will there be imposed export embargoes ...

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    2. Nothing too unusual about buying some short term stability insurance ahead of the crowd. Will have to keep an eye out for the actual physical delivery demanded of soft commodities for the next few monthly contracts. The easiest short term solution outside of export embargoes is pulling a few more MF Globals/PFGBests on the largest physical buyers.

      Recent spin is how the Midwest drought could help curb obesity.

      http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/opinion-la/la-ol-midwest-drought-corn-obesity-20120730,0,4122861.story

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  3. Found these series of articles very interesting - http://seekingalpha.com/article/724361-protected-principal-retirement-strategy-retiring-without-a-million-dollar-nest-egg

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  4. Chit, facebookians being hosed by HFT's $21.xx...facebookians neva had a chance.

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    1. Then look at BOIL....what a beast that was if you bought heavy near lows or on all pullbacks....

      ARNA is getting bushwhacked...I think rotation has begun out of bio into commodities..bought some TVIX for hedge...

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  5. Yeah, FB retailers never had a chance. I guy I play ball with told me "you HAVE to get in FB on the first day". I hope he didn't. Also, look at ARNA. Getting slapped today. Would like to take a stab, but it's too volatile for me. I'll let you guys feed on that one!! Good luck everyone.

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  6. This market is running on the fumes of hopium fumes. If the FED takes no action and ECB takes no action this will force the charts into P3. Consensus is SEPT for easing. Food prices are set to explode without easing anyway. The perfect storm for sure.

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    1. storm comin'!!!! just don't expect it to be an easy trade....may wanna set up for monday crackup

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    2. they may want to squeeze out the early shorts first that would be the MO

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  7. Boil left the station without me and I was watching and for all of the reasons we talked about...what kept me out is poor economic data.
    In California with SONGS still of line pretty much Nat Gas pulling the load.

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    1. left without me also...funny thing is was close to buying back at 42 when it bounced off 3.00 ng and went back to 2.58...oh well..

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  8. I was close then as well. The reverse split messsed me up.

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    1. I had this in my arsenal...but still couldn't believe it..
      http://content.screencast.com/users/wprosser/folders/Jing/media/710acc7b-e18e-479f-9828-59e7cd4015a8/2012-01-27_1629.png

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  9. http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CAzXx6Dbdw8/UBcOCy-lpcI/AAAAAAAAM74/JPwaqEio_zY/s1600/spxdaily.png

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  10. http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/lookout/former-climate-change-skeptic-now-says-global-warming-134617449.html

    Though Muller is now entirely convinced that the Earth is warming due to man-made causes, he still expresses disdain for people who try to raise passions around the issue by pointing to local weather events, such as the drought scorching up America's Midwest right now, as proof of the phenomenon. (He attributes the drought to La Niña, a temporary cooling of the ocean.) The effects of global warming on local weather patterns are unknown, and even as two-thirds of the world has heated up, another one-third has shown a gradual cooling over the past 250 years. The overall effect is a troubling global warming, but Muller has no patience for simplifications that stray from the truth.

    "I'm personally very worried," he says of global warming. Muller says that so far the warming has been "tiny," but that everything points to the process speeding up. "I personally suspect that it will be bad."

    ya think....

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  11. Beautiful photograph.
    If the water above was a lake here in the Northeast (Springtime) there would be a nice Northern Pike right at the tip (point) of the weedline. The chop on the water in the background is absolutely perfect.
    I didn't get out this Spring which is just a crying shame.

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  12. Doc...come on...

    I think the JAG short squeeze is now in works

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