Tuesday, July 31, 2012

FIBONACCI



India (saving electricity)
If one is predisposed to using Elliot Wave theory and fibonacci numbers any longer to try and determine trends and timing then one should read the following link in detail and recognize the possibility of what we may be entering. Many of you have reached the point that your miner holdings moving into any semblance of profit would trigger an immediate selling opportunity. I can't blame you. After all.....its only the game and we are human....predisposed to the predictability that has always defined our behavior. Alf Field has traded the PM trade forever and understands more about the trading of gold than most of us combined. You owe it to yourself to read the link since it will probably raise an eyebrow or two.
http://news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1343740858.php

This is from Businessweek news today and is once again showing us the fragility of our system when exposed to nature's forces. Don't underestimate these conditions. I'm counting on containment of this but then I am an optimist......the pragmatist in me says to keep preparing.... 


Officials blamed forces beyond their control. India depends on the summer monsoon for much of its annual rainfall, but so far this year’s rains have been disappointing. The less-than-normal rainfall has put strains on India’s hydroelectric power supply, which accounts for 19 percent of the country’s 205-gigawatt generation capacity but has dropped nearly 20 percent in the first six months of the financial year because of the delayed monsoon rains. N.R. Nayak, chairman of the state-owned company that operates the electric grid for northern India, told reporters on July 30 that “dry monsoons resulted in less hydro power being in the grid, which is why some states may have reached beyond their scheduled supply purchases to meet demand.”
Still, experts outside the government say officials need to do more. The state still dominates power production, with private-sector producers accounting for only 27 percent of generation capacity. “The power ministry has made this industry financially unviable and until they set it free, it will continue to run into problems like these massive blackouts,” says Rohit Singh, an analyst with IDBI Capital Market Services. The government mandates that state-owned Coal India sell to local power producers at a discount of about 75 percent, but the company, which controls about 80 percent of the market, hasn’t kept pace with the growth of the power sector. Michael Parker, an analyst in Hong Kong with Sanford Bernstein, puts the shortfall at 60 million tons of coal a year. For India’s power producers, there are few alternatives to Coal India; with the rupee’s 26 percent slide against the dollar over the past 12 months, importing isn’t really an option.
Coal India’s struggle to keep up with demand stems in part from government restrictions on new mining. Many coal deposits lie in forested regions in eastern India, whose inhabitants want the forest to remain untouched and where Maoist rebels are active. Several years ago the government implemented a “go/no go” policy restricting new mining. The government ended the policy recently, but the coal industry is still feeling the impact, says Salil Garg, director of energy and utilities for Fitch Ratings India.


Nearer to home, the heat and drought are causing massive problems for farmers and ranchers all over now.  The following is an excerpt from the shocking information that Ron Klinefelter shared on standeyo.com the other day….
This month, the 3 nearest cattlemen’s livestock auctions set ALL TIME EVER records for livestock sales, as farmers sell off their herds. There was only one early cutting of hay this year, and the round bales are going for $100/bale. (This should normally cost $20-25/bale.) We had a pipe break in our 340 foot deep well, which necessitated us getting the pump pulling truck out here this last month. When we originally drilled the well, in the “plenty of rain years”, the water rose to within 24 feet of the surface. Last month, it was 180 feet down to the water level, and we are down in a valley bottom, and not irrigating out of it. The guy pulling the pump told me that the call he made earlier in the day to a guy who wasn’t getting any water in his pressure tank, found, when they pulled the pump, that the water level was now 40 feet BELOW the pump, which was completely dry and burnt out! Some of the rural water systems have also run out of water, and burnt their pumps out.
I talked to one of my sons today. He manages the largest elderberry farm in the U.S., up by Jefferson City, Mo. They are in their harvest now. He said that last week, they picked 10 long field rows, where, in a “normal” year, they would get about 700 pounds of berries. This year they got 35 pounds!


gl all

70 comments:

  1. I dunno Kli. If you use candle bodies then wave 5 would have to truncate. If, so wave 5 would have 5 segments as well....the the new wave up
    would need some implusiveness.

    I am all for wave 3 up in gold not convinced.

    For this to happen printing must be announced this week.

    Either the best set up of all time and thanks for the transparency bitchez or buisness as usual u gov-ment slug bitchez I am on vacation and sunning my Merkles in the south of France..... which seems more likely?

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  3. well the nice thing about it is the fib numbers........but yes...you wont have to wait for the answer

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  4. Further more, the GSE's have spoke and said no mortgage principal forgivness..ok good, no moral hazard no more... because... it is hitting main street with people calling everything into question. So, another wall street bail out by QE and.. again... the public gets no hand out seems to push the limits.....then again.

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  5. Yes FIB time line is too changed if you count candle bodies,, really there is 2 counts going or more.. I've seen both types come to fruition and this is where I add the propoganda spectre.

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  6. http://www.dailyregister.com/topstories/x769532950/Small-farmers-struggle-as-drought-kills-vegetables

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  7. contract defaults and non-delivery are already happening , cheaper to pay the penalty than deliver the physical (food), notice it was speculation earlier this year that food would be dropping. Double smack.

    http://www.wsws.org/articles/2012/aug2012/drou-a01.shtml

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  8. You can only control what you can control.............

    Getting rid of ethanol would be a good start!

    http://m.seekingalpha.com/instablog/1006811-paulo-santos/859881-a-government-mandated-corn-shortage

    Biofuels what a farking scam!

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  9. See what I mean, nothing but a scam.........

    http://blog.heritage.org/2011/12/13/navy-buys-biofuels-for-15-per-gallon-from-stimulus-linked-firm/

    I have a simpler way to save on enery usage for the Navy but that would require the recycling of vast quantities of steel!

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  10. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-most-often-forgotten-survival-preparations

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  11. Miners getting destroyed. What a show. Could be an opportunity. NUGT down almost 15% !!

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  12. Look at the volume of some of the miners. Hoping this is the final flush. KGC has traded 6m shares in the first 20 mins!!

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    1. dont forget end of the month portfolio window dressing here.....

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  13. interesting beatdown of the miners and ryan may have a point....beatdown BEFORE the Fed announcement.....hmmmm

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  14. I remember reading about this corn/ethanol debate years ago. There certainly were ethanol proponents back then that stated no way would food prices ever be affected by diverting some corn to ethanol. Looks like Mother Nature has decided to screw up that belief.

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  15. Action in the miners is unbelievable today. Most have come roaring back. Something is up. We get a huge flush out the morning of a Fed announcement. Smart money grabbing all the shares this am? It seemed like a flash crash in the miners. And they wonder why mom and pop aren't putting their cash into the market.

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  16. most of the retail peeps will miss the big ride......thats just the way it is folks

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/8/1_This_Chart_From_The_70s_Gold_Bull_Market_Will_Shock_People.html

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  17. algobots just short circuited and fubard the market on about 12 stocks......hehehhehehe CNBS trying to explain this unusual volume and trades.....hehehhehe....watta joke this fixed market is

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  18. I slept thru the action in miners...wow...what is up...NUGT was near 52 wk low...nice bounce from there..

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  19. A 20% move in 24 hours. Front running bastids.. I went short the market yesterday....We will get nugt sub 8. I have buy orders in below 7.

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  20. I don't know sheeps...that volume candle is biggest ever for NUGT...

    JAG might be in the short squeeze I ment'd...

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  21. looks like they're going after Knight KCG.....they must have some assets they want.....hmmmmmmmm....

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  22. most miners are green now....hmmmmmmm

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  23. a cheapy with increased volume ctso

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    1. where is all that volume coming from...man that is cheap...

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  24. FB or somebody using bots to generate page hits....to generate revenue.....for FB...bummer.

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  25. Hey all,

    I'm coming into busy season and will be unavailable much of the time to comment...cheers and good luck trading...job duties are calling...

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  26. Lil bit of stop shopping...put a fork in it.

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    1. maybe......but my guess is they don't flush it hard until next week

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  27. There have been so many blow up lately..No leadership at all. PTB are struggling today to keep it up today. Can't imagine Draggi monetizes debt tomorrow.

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  28. I've been convinced for several years that there exists several tens of trillions of USD's floating around the world that nobody but the Fed knows about. Today's action is further evidence in my opinion. I wondered at the time the real reason for the discontinuation of calculating/publishing M3 back in 2006 - it certainly was not the stated reason of being so cost prohibitive.

    I wonder what will happen to hard assets when the curtain is ripped down.
    JD.

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    1. I think Immred alluded to what will happen yesterday in his comments.......PANIC BUYING

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  29. Get ready for a Knight-Capital dump. Do ya think they need to raise cash? They are off 25%

    I agree Duke. unlimited slush fund it seems.

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    1. i gotz ten bucks that says KCG has hard commods OR PM bullion connection (direct or indirect)

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  30. KCG is getting crushed. I agree somebody is going after them....for the PM.

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  31. KCG bought Penson futures (a FCM) in June:

    http://www.futuresmag.com/2012/05/29/knight-capital-group-to-buy-penson-futures

    One of the top 30 FCMs - didn't take long huh? JD

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    1. Penson Worldwide (PNSN) agreed Tuesday to sell its futures business to Knight Capital Group Inc. (KCG), as the troubled brokerage and clearing firm works to sell assets and raise capital.

      Knight, a major stock-trading firm that has sought to build out a derivatives business in recent years, will buy assets of Penson Futures for about $5 million in cash and the potential for future payments linked to revenue, according to terms disclosed by the two firms.

      The deal comes a week after Dallas-based Penson told regulators that the company was making an effort to sell its securities and futures clearing businesses, which represent Penson's core business, after withdrawing some regulatory capital to pay interest on outstanding debt.

      Penson's shares have fallen 93.6% in the past 12 months, a slide touched off a year ago by the company's disclosure of a $42.6 million holding in illiquid bonds issued by a horse-tracing track operator that maintained ties with one of Penson's board members.

      A broad restructing of the firm followed, which has included the sale and closure of international subsidiaries. Penson for years has grappled with a slowdown in share-trading activity, where it clears trades on behalf of brokerage clients, while interest rates stuck at historically low levels have slashed income the firm earns from customer balances held on deposit.

      On Tuesday Penson's shares were down 4.2% at 23 cents. The company this month received a delisting warning from Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. (NDAQ).

      Given the pressure faced by Penson, Tuesday's announcement brought "a sigh of relief," according to a Chicago-based broker that relies on Penson to clear its futures business.

      The deal gives Knight a toehold in the futures industry, filling what its Chief Executive Tom Joyce called a "strategic gap" in its business. Knight is among the biggest market-makers in the U.S. stock market and in recent years has sought to lift its profile on stock-option exchanges.

      Acquiring Penson Futures gives Knight memberships at exchanges run by CME Group Inc. (CME), NYSE Euronext (NYX) and IntercontinentalExchange Inc. (ICE), as well as smaller markets like the Minneapolis Grain Exchange and the Kansas City Board of Trade, according to a statement from the companies.

      The deal is expected to complete by the end of June, according to the firms, and client assets will transfer within one day of the close. Current management of Penson Futures is expected to remain in place and a majority of its employees will be asked to stay on, according to a regulatory filing.

      Penson has been trying to restructure its debt, but this month was dealt a setback after an agreement with debtholders struck in March fell through. On May 15, Penson got approval from the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority to tap $5.5 million in regulatory capital to pay interest on outstanding debt while it worked to sell assets.

      -By Jacob Bunge, Dow Jones Newswires; 312 750 4117; jacob.bunge@dowjones.com; Twitter: @jacobbunge

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  32. Good Afternoon everyone.. One heck of a day with the huge Algos gone a muck.. And now comes The NYSE to cancel some of the trades can't have the peeps make a profit on this can we? As far as the drought goes it's really unreal as parts of Nebraska had no rain in July! None for a month. Omaha had just a trace. It was the driest and the hottest on record beating the 1936 record.
    We do have a chance of rain tonight looks like not very wide spread but will take what we can get. Corn is done the crop is made and even some is ready to harvest if there is anything to harvest that is. Beans have been blooming and are hurt now the bean crop here will be from 0 to 20 bushels an acre and 20 will be the very top end. We are going to see a pattern change next week in the weather looks cooler but still dry so that won't help much the ground can't get anymore dry than it is already for the ground is dried out down past five and a half feet down that is how far the corn rooted to find moisture. Trees are starting to die or go dormant too. Rivers are starting to run very low as creeks and streams are drying up.. I have been working on my orchard putting in drip irrigation lines to about 50 trees. I'm trying so hard to save my fruit trees. It costs so much to replace and time to wait for them to grow it's very sad to think is that would happen I planted them in case of a collapse at least we would have fruit but if the well can't handle the extra water pull they will die. I can't put the well at risk either so they will have to settle for a little water right now and cooler weather would help. I'm going to be piling up snow this winter all around each tree if we can get some snow.. So that's about it here guys. I see the Fed's kicked to can down the road to the September FMOC meeting and likely to near the elections in November. Have a great day!
    Matt

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    1. i just have no idea how this is going to play out if we have 2-3 more weeks of dry weather......ie how quick before we get a superspike

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    2. Yeah I know what you mean.. Grains could really soar later this fall..
      Have a good night..

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  33. Take a look at Knight Capital premarket. Wow, down another 60%!! Side note - KGC announced a new ceo last night. Up close to 5% premarket.

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    1. its over for them........they took a fatal shot to the head yesterday.....now their vital organs (bullion) and (long gold futures holders) are being harvested.......THIS IS WHAT Red and others meant by being OUT of the paper gold bullion trade.

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  34. gold red.....market red......miners green........hmmmmmm will look for confirmation today

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  35. Russell also wrote about living through the Great Depression: “I'm walking down Broadway with my collar turned up around my frozen ears. It's a hellish winter morning during January of the year 1939. Manhattan is beset by a blustering, freezing wind. I'm strolling down the west side of the avenue -- Broadway, past Jack Dempsey's, past the record shop, past Lindy's, past the spaghetti and meatball joint, past the Automat, past -- wait, I duck down stairs into the Automat.

    I've still got three nickels in my pocket, and I'm freezing my ass off. I walk up to the hot chocolate booth, and I drop a nickel into the slot. I yank the handle down and a stream of steaming hot chocolate fills my cup. A scraggly-looking bearded old guy walks up to me and groans, "Hey, young fellah, can you spare a coppla nickels? I've got a case of walking pneumonia, and I gotta stay warm." I shake my head, no, and shuffle off to sit at an empty table. Next to me is another empty table.

    There's a plate on the table with what looks like a half-eaten sausage on it. A few seconds later another old guy wearing a French beret hat sits down at that table. He's got a fork in his hand. He scarfs the sausage down, looks at me and winks as if nothing has happened.

    I nod to the old guy. I've got a job designing and selling piece goods. So I feel entitled to goof off at the Automat and have a cup of chocolate. And so far today, no luck -- not one lousy sale. I had a job with the George W. Button Co. up near Harlem but they laid most of us off when things got slow. It was a union job paying $18.75 a week, six days a week including Saturdays. My job was loading trucks with Max Factor women's cosmetics and the cases were heavy as the devil.

    Now I'm a salesman and proud as hell to have a real job. As I'm walking, I pass an employment agency, and there's a long line of grizzled men, hands tucked into their overcoats, all waiting outside the agency. Most are stamping their feet to keep warm. They're hoping that maybe some kind of work comes up. I feel kind of guilty because I'm young, and I have a job.

    I cut over across Fifth Avenue towards the west side and head into frozen Central Park. I'm going to look up a few friends from the West Side. Cutting across the sheep meadow I see all the "Hoovervilles," little huts made of crushed cardboard boxes and flattened tin cans -- all taped or stapled together. Kids and their moms are peering out from the make-shift doors of the huts. I wonder how they all keep warm, because the cops don't let the squatters light fires.

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  36. gold over 1600 now....hehehheheeh......no way its gonna stay

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  37. So, what do you think the "trading error" was for KCG. You think the boyz just have a way of ganging up and can induce these "errors"? I would think KCG must have safeguards in place so they couldn't do a 440 million error on their own.

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    1. above my pay grade doc...i look at it more simplistically you have to look at the recent history of these "MF Global" type situations and either believe in coincidences or believe in a pattern

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    2. also doc ....i believe that a "primary" target of the PIIGS is the gold bullion......heheheheh...i hope we get to see what the "strings attached" the ECB mentioned will be

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  38. Richard Russell continues:

    “I include a daily chart of GDOW below. You can see that GDOW has formed a pattern that is a potential head & shoulders formation. The base and the support for the formation come in at a value of 1700. This formation tells us where the world manufacturing and production stands, just as the Dow Industrials tells us where US manufacturing stands.

    I intend to keep my subscribers abreast of the action of the important GDOW. Let me put it this way. As long as GDOW holds above 1700, we can rest assured that the world is all right. But if GDOW breaks below 1700, my instinct is to ‘run for the hills.’ We live in an international world today. All nations are now connected closely in a way that they have never been before in history.

    This makes GDOW maybe the most important single index ever conceived by man. For this reason, I'll monitor it, and let my subscribers know just what is happening to GDOW. I might add that I don't like the fact that GDOW is in a potential head & shoulders formation. But when I say "Potential" it means that it has not happened yet.”

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  39. Good morning all. 1787 on the GDOW the fity day. bears watching. Market feels too complacent here.

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  40. GPL to announce earnings on 8/13 after the market close....

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  41. NEW YORK (Reuters) - Knight Capital Group Inc is being forced to raise money after an erroneous trading position wiped out $440 million of its capital, the firm said on Thursday, causing its shares to shed half of their value.

    http://news.yahoo.com/knight-seeks-financing-440-million-trading-loss-124602408--finance.html


    I don't know why, but I find it extremely amusing when the robo traders make a mistake.

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  42. It looks like Knight Capital was suing NASDAQ over the Facebook IPO
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9QAdyVZG5io&feature=em-uploademail

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    1. Tom: Do you think some very powerful people were not happy with Knight?

      (Remember what happened to BATS)

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    2. can you say........HACKED!!

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    3. Thinking hard about picking up some $2.50 puts... i think this pig is toast from what I'm reading.

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    4. Hubz: Did you buy the puts? If you did, you picked up a nice % day trade gain:

      Knight Capital Group, Inc. (KCG)
      -NYSE

      2.28 Down 4.66(67.15%) 3:18PM EDT - Nasdaq Real Time Price

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    5. I'm getting Fkd by TDAmeritrade. I did a wire at 1pm central and it still hasn't shown up! I yanked all my money a couple weeks ago. So frustrating!!!!

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    6. That sucks. Anytime I've done wires with Scottrade, it's nearly instant.

      KCG was near $3 when you mentioned buying the puts. It finished at $2.58 (with a low of $2.17)

      Would have made for a great day trade, even if you got on the train late.

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    7. Now it's below $2.00 After hours!!!

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    8. Ughhhhhh damnit... i've never had wire issues before! Even called and they just said it should show up by the end of the day. These gimme trades don't come around often.

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    9. There is an after hours rumor that they are considering bankruptcy.

      That was fast.

      (I'd love to know who was on the other side of those trades)

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    10. No kidding, usually these take a few days to die. This one was almost instant! I played both Lehman and CIT Group for nice profits. Anytime you see massive trading volume like that I think it's almost a given.

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    11. I'm in this morning, was hoping it would live overnight and pop and that's just what we wanted. More time for the boys to get the hell out :)

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  43. now on the kansas/missouri border........total desert out here........only occaisional semi with round bales headed east

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  44. hourly on SSRI looking good here

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