Friday, July 6, 2012

THE LINE FORMS AT THE EQUATOR

Good news announced on the job front Friday buoyed the stock market. Some people are being hired.. Not very many, but more than estimated......unless you were Goldman trying to front run the market. Oh well....what else is new? Ah yes.....the heat wave is getting worse....I guess that's good unless you like to eat. Its really kind of difficult to eat things like bread, milk, eggs, meat etc. if there is no corn wheat and soybeans. This will translate into a truly apocalyptic black swan if nature decides to go on strike.Sorry....no predictions from this thread.....I know my limitations sometimes and this is NOT predictable yet....only be aware of the potential. We will know within a few weeks. Again....be aware.

Monday will bring in another round of QE suggestions/hints but its all noise. Ben has never stopped QE and will continue to print. The difference is he has to kick the can by pretending there is no QE and when he does announce QE it will have to be an incredible amount of money. Perhaps even a TRILLION needs to be headlined. Yes I am not stuttering.....just be prepared. This might even push us into next year. I can't last much longer than six months once its announced.....before things become extremely dicey. Supercycle deflationary collapses are a funny thing.......they have no conscience and once these dogs of war are released they obey the laws of nature.

Pay attention to the Middle East. Some buttons may have to be pressed before the election and I expect the rhetoric in Syria to exceed the threshold of safety soon. Once again be aware. We live in dicey times.

57 comments:

  1. The recent Euro summit and hopium injection did not work for long. FX wheels are falling off the Euro it seems. Capital controls are being discussed. Will be interesting to see if pm's catch a bid with a strong dollar. It will not be so easy to hide in the swissy for example.

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  2. Kli, still around - have had some speed bumps, but hanging in there trying to maintain a positive attitude. Thanks for asking.

    More complete update on my blog.

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  3. great to hear from you inlet....you brightened my day

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  4. we are entering into an unprecedented fiat printing frenzy.......there is no choice unless they want to unleash full deflation/depression....ALL fiats have nothing backing their currency....it will be massive before it ends

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  5. Hi, Inlet. So good to hear from you. Hang in there, we are pulling for you. Best, sis

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  6. Here is something. Apparently, a Pension provision got passed that will make pensions look better funded than they actually are. This may boost earning for companies and this is earnings week.

    http://soberlook.com/2012/06/with-all-talk-about-mark-to-market.html

    Just more sneakiness I suppose.

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  7. pensions WILL remain funded (they have to) to do this will require more and more funny money printed into the system to elevate equity prices and bond prices (which underly the funds)

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  8. also be aware as Brodsky stated in a great interview on ZH that even though you keep you 90K pension a head of lettuce will be 30 bucks......THAT my friends is where you purchasing power of the dollar is headed....at least that is the plan

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  9. here is the interview.....very worthwhile

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/paul-brodsky-central-banks-are-nearing-inflate-or-die-stage

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  10. When lettuce sells for $30 a head I will need private security around here. hehehe!

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  11. Doctrader--My next dr. neighbor was a managing director at one of the big acctg. firms and we were talking about this very thing a couple of weeks ago. I cannot say much more, but he confirmed my suspicions. Let's just say lots of monkeying going on w/GAAP rules.

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  12. PAAS downgraded to hold.......hehehehhe......gotta give that last shakeout by the cabal

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  13. Great big red headline on Drudge this morning....

    France sells bonds at negative interest rate...

    http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_FRANCE_FINANCIAL_CRISIS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2012-07-09-10-45-53


    /amused

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  14. they're running the deflation talk to drive down commods....not working on gold today however......but they have held its price in check......very soon they are going to have to unleash the stagflation winds and that is going to be severe this go around. They will tap on the deflation brakes as maximum pain is reached.and do their best to keep us in a Japan type scenario......

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  15. Sister,

    I have found the whole concept of "retirement" as suspect. The mathematics just never made sense to me. How can companies figure out how much money they need to save for pensions, when they really don't know how long people will live, what inflation might be, health care cost, and whatever else might pop up that needs to be accounted for as time move forward? AND, how well as a company will they will be doing as they march into the future?
    What we are seeing is how that is all going to fall apart someday. So, do some sneaking accounting tricks to hide the problem as long as possible. Then, dump the problem on the tax payers when the pensions can be paid
    I heard that somewhere buried in the health care bill is a way to further tax 401K type plans.

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    1. Fuzzy Math, Delusional Assumptions and a good heaping of Ostrich Economics..........

      "So, do some sneaking accounting tricks to hide the problem as long as possible. Then, dump the problem on the tax payers when the pensions can be paid"

      Answer to that is a resounding YES an it's been going on in NY for a longtime. Every time the System has a bad year take notice of the detail in your tax increases for the next two years? I'm sure you're aware all Municipalities & School Districts just got hit with a sizable increase in Pension Contributions for the current years budgets and also back in 2008 if memory serves me correct.

      "We the Plebes" ALWAYS make good on their follies, they do this chit all the time and it's guaranteed to continue considering they are assuming a 7% to 8% return on investment! Here's the system return for last year +14.57%, the last 3 years +2.02%, the last 5 years +4.16%, the last ten +6.12%....... See how well they are meeting their ASSumptions!!

      NY really screwed themselves back in the late 90's and early 2000's by reducing actual contributions by said Municipalities & School Districts and relying more on market returns and lets not forget increasing its liabilities by Stupid Politicians giving the store away in future benefits for votes and never considering the unintended consequences of their actions!!!!

      This is the latest Pew Survey on Nation Wide Pensions Systems:

      http://www.pewstates.org/uploadedFiles/PCS_Assets/2012/Pew_Pensions_Update.pdf

      Check out how well NY has "Funded" it's Healthcare obligations........ hehehehehe

      Stitch up your pants pockets now!

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  16. error

    "when the pensions CAN'T be paid"

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  17. For those watching slw, they report on Thurs., 8/9 after hrs. (of course) with cc on Fri. at 11. Price dropping today and Fri. P.S. I took my pension in cash which is also worthless, lol.

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  18. The worst U.S. drought since Ronald Reagan was president is withering the world’s largest corn crop, and the speed of the damage may spur the government to make a record cut in its July estimate for domestic inventories.

    Tumbling yields will combine with the greatest-ever global demand to leave U.S. stockpiles on Sept. 1, 2013, at 1.216 billion bushels (30.89 million metric tons), according to the average of 31 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That’s 35 percent below the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s June 12 forecast, implying the biggest reduction since at least 1973. The USDA updates its harvest and inventory estimates July 11.

    Crops on July 1 were in the worst condition since 1988, and a Midwest heat wave last week set or tied 1,067 temperature records, government data show. Prices surged 37 percent in three weeks, and Rabobank International said June 28 that corn may rise 9.9 percent more by December to near a record $8 a bushel. The gain is threatening to boost food costs the United Nations says fell 15 percent from a record in February 2011 and feed prices for meat producers including Smithfield Foods Inc. (SFD) (SFD)

    “The drought is much worse than last year and approaching the 1988 disaster,” said John Cory, the chief executive officer of Rochester, Indiana-based grain processor Prairie Mills Products LLC. “There are crops that won’t make it. The dairy and livestock industries are going to get hit very hard. People are just beginning to realize the depth of the problem.”

    bloomberg

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    1. Looks like our prayers might be getting answered. We're getting rain here right now and looking at the map Iowa is getting some as well.

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  19. note the last line on above article. It is so bad in many parts of an area in Iowa/Mo where I am today that the farmers cannot water their cattle because the wells are running dry.....that is DRY!

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  20. I spoke with several big farmers in this area yesterday and they said at best they will get 50% yield....that is only if they get rain now

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  21. South American Silver Plummets As Bolivia Announces It Will Nationalize One Of World's Largest Silver Deposits


    http://tinyurl.com/6rbskhk

    This is why I've always been a little nervous about investing in silver. Many of the mines are located in chithole third world countries with small minded leaders.

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  22. Have to credit HonestCreditGuy with another awesome call. First it was OSIR and then DCTH. Thank you.

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  23. come out and take a bow honestguy

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  24. yes jay....agree its a big risk so be very careful which countries your miners are in

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  25. Bought some ZLCS at 1.16 today. Something seems to be up. Traded at above average volume both last Friday and today.

    Just another of Honest's picks.

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  26. glad to see you back Inlet. As for silver, physical only in this market; here's another reason why:

    PonziF***GBest under Peregrine aka commodity/currency cooked goose joins the MFGlobal hall of suckers.

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  27. Golly gee they've already gotta worm on the ZH article Red........hehehehe.......anyway MF'd again......

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  28. Seems like the market wanted to really fade...still might. Gotta wait till after the first hour at least. GPL cannot catch a break. GPL earnings cannot see how they pull it off. GPL needs $28 silver. However, there will be a capitulation moment wich will be a screaming buy. RIC is trying to hold on and needs to gain ground or RIC to is going to blow up more. PFG may lead to some liquidation soon..I am thinking shorting the RUT.

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  29. Here is another blog I read with a great explanation of why it is so hard to read these markets, the indices go up while individual stocks/etfs do not: http://www.rantfinance.com/2012/07/09/an-bears-dilemma/comment-page-1/#comment-5273

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  30. JAG is done it's looking like...

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  31. OOPS -- "trade" these markets.

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  32. KLI: You've been saying gold is being manipulated for a long time. They are investigating....


    Was Gold Manipulated Like Libor Rates?

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  33. Inverse head and shoulders forming on KGC daily chart? Am I just desperate? hehehehehe Good luck everyone!

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    1. i see it ryan....just a matter of when not if

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  34. It's the "everybody does it" mentality...here's another assault on our freedoms, the Potus signed on Fri. afternoon: http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2012/07/06/executive-order-assignment-national-security-and-emergency-preparedness-#.T_sYsRJrreM.twitter Sigh.

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  35. I would say look out below...the safety net is pretty far down.

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  36. Looks like SVM's fall to 5 dollars continues. After a brief exciting rise in value, its fall has resumed. Seems like some huge flush is needed before any steady rise will occur.

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  37. Knowing my luck Silver will finally break its support here. Good grief!

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  38. pm's may buck the trend. the baby is going to get thrown out with the bath water. Get ready to fire more bullets at the miner trade. They will come back.

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    1. been building some fiat this month for my wish list purchase of bullion......also reporting on the ground corn crop.....back from the corn bowl and we are in deep shit.......better get good rain but its most likely too late......sheepers is right ......miners may break with the descending wedges in PM metals but they'll come back......I'm loaded and wish my buy point had been cheaper but right now we are in deep chit and I'll take my chances holding miners over fiat.....Loved Santelli's rant on Gary Gensler today.......he said "everyone knows Gary Gensler and the CFTC is a joke".....isn't this a mess... noticed Turd Ferguson choked and puked.....he'll be back blowing and pumping as soon as the trade turns........gotta love the power of the masters. gl and hang on

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  39. Home owner Bill of Rights passes in California.

    This will slow the foreclosure process here. Maybe grind it to a halt for a while.

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    1. Prop up those $300,000 loans to the minimum wagers :)

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  40. the price of PHYSICAL GOLD is NOT relevant here......only the longer term price is relevant

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  41. Jay..I hope the in trouble people get the homes free and clear...all of them. F the banks.

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    1. Huge moral hazard developing that can't be put back in the bottle......total FUBAR

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    2. Should fresh college grads get free homes too? Or just the minimum wagers that bought in way over their head?

      And also, where can I sign up for a free home? I'd love to leave this dreary Seattle weather for some SoCal beaches.

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  42. THIS is what is going to happen PERIOD!!

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2012/7/10_Michael_Pento.html

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  43. We MUST be near a bottom...was thinking I can hardly stand this one more day...nice bull trap.

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  44. If i manage to survive this miners trade and actually make money will have a story for the grandkids ;)

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  45. Me, too Hubz...starting to wonder whether I'll live long enough ;). But if Michael Pento is right, to the moon Alice shouldn't be far away!

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  46. Should fresh college grads get free homes too? Or just the minimum wagers that bought in way over their head?

    College Grads? Free Homes? Free Home? what do you think Jay?

    I call my thinking a claw back....

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/jpmorgan-clawback-bonuses-will-announce-cio-loss-just-over-5-billion

    Why can only bankers "claw back" I hope the whales do not have to pay any bonus back. F'ing Dimon can't have it both ways. F'ing bankers...

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