Wednesday, July 25, 2012

NATURE'S REVENGE

No one is hardly noticing the developing catastrophe facing our food supply. Therefore I guess this must border on fear-mongering. Maybe we can spray a dispersent on it and say its all fine, but this plague could just develop into the full blown black swan that so many have been expecting to hit the Just In Time food delivery set up in this country. After all, with a three day supply of food in all major U.S. cities we should be just fine with pizza delivery or Chinese carry-out until the crops recover. There is no significant rain in the forecast in the middle of the country for the next seven days and temperatures are predicted to be extreme. That is only adding insult to injury to a corn crop and posing an unrecoverable set up for beans. I will defer to some of you more qualified to comment in your areas like Ken and Matt but here in the center of Missouri it is a profound disaster. Farmers are liquidating cattle on a massive scale now and see no hope of feeding through the winter. Well water in the northern half of the state is in jeopardy. Many farmers have already bought hay from western Missouri weeks ago and it is getting increasingly hard to find as the drought has threatened any further cuttings from that area. Unless we get sustained soaking rains there will be no fall pasture, which might get some of the herd holdouts through. If no significant late summer and fall rain occurs then you will have the breed herds liquidated completely as happened in many parts of Texas last year. It looks like the drought is spreading to Europe and Asia too.


Now we are beginning to have a perfect storm developing worldwide. There may be a stick save recovery and we can put on our rose colored glasses and hope, but my advice is to take precautions now and laugh later that nothing materialized. Then you can donate your stash to a food bank. Anyone on the ground with positive views on this PLEASE comment. We could use something to lift us here.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/deep-fried-black-swan-goes-global-drought-spreads-us-asia-and-now-southern-europe

We are entering the end game of the Grand Supercycle washout. How this unravels is not for us to guess.....this is a massive Bear that we are in and in these Bear markets you are NOT going to get on the Bear....it is meant to EAT YOU. YOU are the target......NOT the market. Timing this is not for your retail traders....or for that matter 90% of your Hedgees. They'll be eaten too by this bear. When gold and silver and the miners move they will NOT want you on their wagon. It may be hard to take this consolidation but if you understand its purpose then perhaps you can trade it. Its all about getting you out of the trade and out of your shares. They are accumulating them at ever cheaper prices and it will eventually turn. As I have repeatedly pointed out until I have become quite unpopular and tuned out by even my buddies.......they are not going to let you trade this next move up.......it WILL be breathtaking. Holding your shares OR trading them will be extremely difficult. Physical gold and silver bought through your local coin shops remains the only sane investment and you can thank the Cabal for keeping the prices in this range. Enjoy your opportunity and the very best of luck to all of you.......


John Hathaway on KWN today had this to say  “This year long consolidation is in its final stages, and I don’t think gold is going to creep higher when that gets resolved.  I think gold is going to move very explosively and not give all of the people who sold it a chance to get back in.  Once you have that (turn in the gold price), I think the mining stocks are going to be terrific.

If gold went from $1,600, where it is today, to $2,000, that’s a 25% move.  That to me is not a very big deal.  It would confirm the next leg is going, but I don’t think the next leg will start off meekly.  It will start off with a bang.  So could we see gold over $2,000 by year end?  I wouldn’t be surprised.”







29 comments:

  1. It was a heckuva day...almost convinced myself to sell some positions last night! Am I to understand by your comments that you are out of your miner holdings? I'm a bit confused.

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    1. not at all sista....still holding and not even slightly concerned about this longer term.......after all......short of physical I cannot imagine what I would feel more comfortable holding in paper.....holding at least twenty miners

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  2. QE printing is given, the problem lies in the details of how much, when, and for how long. Will it stop at the deflationary collapse or will multiple attempts at reflation take place after the initial deflationary collapse in jobs and non-essential assets, spec real estate, yachts, collectible cars, etc. As for food, your indicator besides rain will be the other input energy, mainly oil. If somebody starts an incident driving oil prices up 40% or more, the farmers are screwed and so are we.

    Not sure for another 3-6 week, amount of rain. Rockies have been getting some decent moisture not sure if it will reach the MidWest in time. You will know for sure by Labor Day.

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  3. That's what I thought but your comments about their not letting us in this move up gave me a jolt! We still haven't broken out...people ask me why I hold my 250% gains falling to 175% but I've held because to me the global situation is so tenuous that I'm uncomfortable Not holding them. But I still depend on you for direction.

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  4. Phil Davis wrote today that Mario Draghi stated that they will do "whatever it takes" to support the Euro. Once yields rise too high on Spainish & Italian bonds, someone (Draghi) comes out from the ECB to make a bullish statement. But, Phil points out that it will take Trillions to support Spain & Italy, and there are limits as to just how much money they can come up with.
    So, without a real plan/money, today's rise in the futures is likely just a pump job.

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    1. jawboning only now to catch the shorts on the bonds and squeeze it to a new reset to buy time......hey...it works.

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  5. Honest,

    GENE exploded this am. GALE to follow?

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  6. Poor ARNA, can't stop watching that stock for some reason. They are absolutely GRINDING longs out of it... reminds me of the miners maybe that's why I can't look away ;) Trying to help my parents come up with any sort of retirement plan now. Looking at just getting some homes to get rent income from anyone have any sage advice on that? They have no debt, got them to buy a nice chunk of silver back in 08 and get completely out of the markets but they're just sitting on all this cash wondering what to do. They don't want to invest anymore at all in anything stock or metal related. I hate them sitting in cash and they do too but just not sure what other good options there are.

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    1. rental property with low taxes in stable area
      raw land with low taxes
      beaten down energy stocks with low debt and good dividend

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  7. The GDM very close to a bull cross on the daily MACD....

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    1. just put it up above.......second from the bottom

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  8. Just get the GDM to get and hold the 20 day..would be encouraging.

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  9. Hey guys, family coming from NY so I'll be away for about 10 days...be good and do everything you can to get the gold to hold up. FOMC coming Mon/Tues. won't help, but that macd about to cross is most encouraging sign for Months. Be good. Best, Nancy

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  10. Hello All, Just back from N/E Nebraska, S/E South Dakota. And the Drought has really got a lot worse up there. The Corn is all gone a total loss. Many fields are bring turned under. The trees are even dying. It's so sad to see. Soy Beans up there are Dying to as well. The Area Around Yankton South Dakota down in to Nebraska is really bad. Hard to put it into words. Back here in Iowa we are getting a better read on what the corn is going to do. We have anything from 125 bushel corn down to 0 many fields are now being turned under with just a few strips left for the insurance Company's to view in each field. We did get wide spread rains last night across a large part of the state anything from.50 to 1.50 inches. This rain missed Nebraska and South Dakota. And for Iowa it's too late for the corn. Soy Beans are still holding on here in Iowa and the rains have helped. But How much damage is already done I just don't know But some I'm sure. I believe that the national average corn yield is going to fall well below what the USDA is calling for. They are coming in at 145 bushels per acre. I feel that it will be much closer to 100 or less. This is going to cause problem's in that area. Ethanol and it's draw down on the corn supply is very large. And the Government subsidies on Ethanol is not going to go away in an election year as the politicians have no will do so even if it were to cause starvation somewhere in the world. I heard on the radio Today that we are importing grain now to the US from out side sources... We are seeing cooler weather now but rains look a little sparse to say the least for the next few weeks. We have had since June 20th where I live .10 of an inch of rainfall and 12 days over 100 and 21 days over 90 degrees. Kli thanks for bring all this info to the blog daily it's a wealth of info for sure. I am smiling today because I went long on the EURO against the Dollar at 1.20.65 a few days back. Guess we all get a little lucky sometimes ;o).. That's about all I have tonight. We need rain and lots of it before Spring planting or it's game over. 2013 is going to be rough as it is with grain shortages and high prices. If we don't get good rains before planting season 2014 is going to bring unreal hardships for us all. Have a plan. Get what you need and if we "do" get good rains this fall and next spring Thank God as you make a good donation to your local food bank with some of the extra food that you put away and didn't need..
    Matt

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    1. thanks Matt.....I am On the Missouri Kansas border tonite and it is very bleak here......they were in good shape until the last month with corn beans and hay.....now they are desperate......will be leaving this area tomorrow......feel sorry for them if rain doesn't come in quantity soon. Corn is done for Beans may not make at all...and herds here being liquidated........and this was a relatively good area in missouri four weeks ago

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    2. just chatted with a driver for Orscheln's (they supply small farmers) he said that only a small belt in souther Iowa has made good corn otherwise its very bad in many places and most of missour now doesnt even know if they will make beans. until you get down into the bootheel

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  11. virtually no rain in the forecast for most of the midwest during the next 10day......and HOT!

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    1. Yeah Kli not good for sure. Here is an news story on the drought just out.. GRIM!

      http://news.yahoo.com/report-shows-us-drought-rapidly-intensifying-154454599--finance.html

      Matt

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    2. very grim without a miracle now......still hope for a stick save but forecast is dire

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  12. Thanks for the Farm Reports Gents. Sure would help to pull the plug on ethanol. Meanwhile we flare natty. Scratch grain for the chickens is up 10% over last month....

    The GDM has made that bull cross and is trying to hold onto the 20 day. Can't see how the talks up printing or a coordinated intervention with Merkle on vacation. Harder still to be short into next week....

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  13. El Nino building could create perfect storm, as it usually pushes rain and snow into Southeast states, while causing other growing regions in the world to go into drought also...crazy times...
    http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2012/07/greenland-ice-sheet-melted-at.html

    good luck out there..setups are few and far between...we are in limbo area and the mm's are going to kill both sides now...1390spx should be good short entry..

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  14. Chuck, going to be an interesting fall and winter weather wise. El nino makes for exciting winters for So Cal.

    Looking for a big move in miners. Do some charting on the daily GDM. You can play nugt against the 20day 50day and the bull flag....(for advanced players)..

    GDM to 1350 implies a 60% move in nugt. I'm in sub 9 bucks.... Like boil it'll rip your face off.

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    1. yes...I remember them well, of course I remember a new zealand swell that came in December during an el nino in 83...that was rare...but well worth it..

      I'm keeping my eyes on nugt...I don't know where the sudden squeeze hopium came from but after earnings it should be quite a show...

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  15. I've been watching ATPG for possible dead cat bounce short covering with volume...looks like they are going bk...but the bonds are trading higher...it will be fast if it happens...

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  16. Welp, got 'er on auto pilot. Going to go have some adult fun...yippee!

    'ave a g'day mates!

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    1. have a good one sheeps.....just finished my sojourn across the "new desert" for 120 miles.......nothing alive in brown fields........

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  17. Thanks for the drought updates.

    Bought a little more ZLCS today. Seems like this 1 dollar'ish level is holding.

    There are comments on the Keystone Speculator site about where to short on the S&P. My concern would be that all the politicians need do is talk positively, and the market will roar. The heck with actually having a plan. Who knows how high they will take this, with shorts being forced to cover on the way up. I might buy a little RMN at 1390, but if the S&P can reach 1390, then 1400 is not far away.

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  18. Going to be 109 here on Sunday... unreal!!! My yard is cracked badly in places and i've been trying to water really well once a week just to keep the grass alive. Sucks :/ Most AC units here aren't built for this kind of heat.

    What's up with the ten year today? Yowza!

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  19. Bullish engulfing candle on KGC weekly. hmmmmmmm

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