Wednesday, August 15, 2012

TOUGH TRADE

How many of us that are in the market and in the PM trade feel like this guy? I'm not on the beach right now but I have to admit the expected stress in a bear trade in metals and miners is not really giving me stress here. This market is so upside down that I cannot really think of where I'd rather park my cash right here right now in this market. Many people for different reasons have not heeded the advice of knowledgeable people telling you to stay out of the paper trade altogether. Many of these people have good reasons for still being in the market. Maybe its 401K retirement money. Maybe they have "enough" liquidity to still challenge themselves. Either way they are gambling. For now I am still in the market and will probably remain with at least a percentage of my wealth in the market. I fully realize the risk and the risk is you can wind up just like the MF global victims..........ZERO. Now we go back to where to go if you are in the paper casino. I am probably not as comfortable as the guy in the hammock but I just don't feel there is a better gamble IF you are going to allocate a pile of money in this rigged casino. Recently it was revealed that Soros added to his gold holdings as did Paulson. I think I can probably agree with these mega-players. Timing certainly could be better as Bill Fleckenstein recently said on KWN. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/8/14_Fleckenstein_-_Markets_Will_Crush_Central_Bank_Actions.html

I don't want you to EVER believe I am a market expert but I know a man with a reputation of being just that and here is what he just said about this game.   http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/8/15_Richard_Russell_-_Get_Ready_For_Massive_QE3_%26_Epic_Inflation.html

This is an incredible time and feeling uncomfortable in a trade probably means you are in the right trade at that point. Its when everyone including yourself is comfortable and piling into a trade that you should really ask yourself if you are in trouble. I'm not uncomfortable enough right now which actually does bother me.....so I guess we'll see how long before this trade really turns hard. Be aware though...however they turn this they will do so when NO ONE is wanting in it. Maybe that is now. I'm in and I don't have to worry about "getting in" at the exact right moment.

24 comments:

  1. I was waiting for a entry point in GBG
    but holy cow they got crushed today. A good spanking to say the least..
    This market is a total zombie no volume, there has got to be some fire works soon or the big boys will fall over from starving the vamps need new blood. Guess will see
    Matt

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  2. Great commentary as always. The miners held up well today considering gold barely budged and silver was flat. You know Richard Russell? Vix is at a point that portends a drop...

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  3. Their is no volume in e-minis above 1410-1420....they will need to push it thru with some event that spikes it overnight...the best thing for bulls is a push down and short squeeze to get thru volume hole....the odds are much better being short than long here...

    we are in limbo land....they are taking money from both sides and might try one last squeeze to setup the bulls for a big down move....watch the spoos....

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  4. Keystone writes that the Put/Call ratio is indicating a significant market top. Also, Bollinger Bands for the indices are tightening, indicating that a violent move is coming and could come any day now
    So, a violent move to the downside is expected. But, in today's crazy markets, who really knows.

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  5. The Assange thing is getting way out of control..Branding him a rapist for consensual sex and charge is continuing to have sex when condom broke..I bet they have not ask for extradition of one person with similar case. the first AG dismissed the case, the accuser is tied to the CIA...I applaud Equador..he must must have some really good stuff on both the US and Britain..

    When there are no secrets, there are no lies

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    1. I talked with my brother about this the other day. Seems like anytime somebody starts making noise and becoming a threat out of the woodwork comes some rape or molestation charge. Because those are so sick and villainous the person immediately loses credibility, especially in the current world where your average joe just takes in whatever he is spoonfed from the news. It's scary how easy it is honestly. They can destroy your reputation over night.

      This Corzine thing has really made me sick, I can't say I didn't expect it somewhat but I don't know... I'm just done. The rule of law is non-existent. Anybody arguing for either sides isn't TRYING hard enough to look at how corrupt everyone is. The sooner the "great reset" comes the better. Hell at the very least the credibility of wall street has been so slammed that even wall street itself will begin to stop playing games with each other. When you can steal THAT much money and get away with it with no repercussions, who would do business with you? Fellow thieves? I don't think so!

      I'm glad I'm a nobody with not much to lose honestly. :)

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  6. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-assange-or-corzine

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  7. Guess whats going t0o happen beside Hillary being named VP...

    heheh demarco just got his balls cut off..

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/socialism-strikes-back-geithner-retaliates-against-demarco-accelerates-wind-down-gse-treasury-b

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    1. Did you check out the comments from imthemix96...... funny stuff, accurate but farking funny none the less! Nice day yesterday with the miners just need a bakers dozen more like that and i can trade the submarine in and get back in my boat!

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  8. Replies
    1. shorts are trying to get out....somethings up with the hire earlier this week...

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  9. Going to add to my bearish,dim and otherwise cynical view of everything and took on some tvix here at the double botom...

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    1. I joined you...somethings amiss...vix down 5% and market even....yeah right...

      might be a good time to pressure BEN B before Jackson hole...

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    2. low volume opex could be playing havoc on vix..but I have a feeling its something much more sinister...

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  10. weird action. money going back into tlt, vix at a low. miners hannging in. No mojo to push the broad markets higher unless the ptb pull the lever or acutally take action which they cannot here...What are the spoos sayin?

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  11. Boil is perking up....A litle over boutght on the 5 minute. Going to buy at 41.10 if I get the chance Stop at 40.49...

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  12. PAL is benefiting from South Africa miner strike violence...shorts are heavy 9 days to cover...nice move already...could be more to come..volume is big over 20 sma also

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  13. Zulu Dawn, hope everyone had an opportunity to get some physical platinum.

    The billion plus rounds of ammo DHS RFP means the sequel is coming soon: American Zulu Dawn

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  14. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-17/atp-oil-and-gas-files-for-bankruptcy-in-texas

    lost a couple dollars trying to play bounce..made .16c share on bounce, lost .16 share on bk...weird..

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    1. Seems Paulson and Soros have came to the same realization ATPG shareholders have come to, in the current printing presses immediacy hoping for business profits is fruitless get your claims on the physical. Note how Paulson threw in the towel and switched from equities to claims on physical.

      http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-15/paulson-steps-up-gold-bet-to-44-of-firm-s-equity-assets.html

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  15. Looks like the blog has been quiet lately. Maybe there is a big Alpo sale going on.

    No Alpo sale here, but tuna fish was on sale--2 cans for a dollar with a max of 10 cans at one of the drug stores. So, I went to get my 10 cans and there was a line at the checkout. Everyone in line had 10 cans of tuna fish in their carts.

    Max Keiser gave an interview on Alex Jones's site. Max believes the crash (90% chance) will occur anytime between now and April 2013. He believes issues in Japan will trigger it. If Max is right, there is not as much time as I have thought.

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  16. Also bought tvix, sorry Honest & Sheeps...may spell bad news for you. Not sure the markets will fall before Jackson Hole on the 31st, but who knows what the real powers want? Nice segment on Lehman fraud on 60 Minutes tonight, no prosecutions yet. Fuld dealing w/private lawsuits, lol.

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