Wednesday, September 19, 2012

THE FISCAL CLIFF

This is what the other side of the trade looks like on the fiscal cliff bluff. No politician will touch this "fiscal cliff" in your lifetime.....and if they did then you can count their lifetime in seconds.....not years. This will continue to be jawboned but it is a red herring. There will be no fiscal limitations to this disaster.....at least not voluntarily administered. Just look at the recent teacher's strike in Chicago. I think that teachers deserve what ever they get but if you think that public employees are going to accept austerity then think again. Our greatest expenditures are with our retirement programs for seniors and military and state and local public employees......its an ever expanding debt bomb that just gets larger and larger. Expanding money supply does nothing to address this structural debt liability. The only way out is to expand the economy dramatically and stop expansion of our unfunded liabilities.

Ben desperately is trying to jump start inflation and get the velocity of money moving which means that confidence must also be restarted in our economy and our republic. At the same time order must be maintained within the ranks of the peeps as they are being slowly strangled into the poverty line. That is one tall order of performance. You are going to throw a barrage of platitudes at small business people and at the consumers while telling them your have their back from the verge of going off a "fiscal cliff". Does that make any sense to ANYONE? You tell them that you brought them back from the Worst Crisis Since the Great Depression.........AND THEN you tell them to loosen up the purse strings and spend that cash on capital expenditures and new employee expansion now. You tell them that we are going to buy our own debt since NO ONE else will to artificially keep our long term interest rates down so we can expand our already out of control debt. You don't believe that QE is going to work. These are business people....small and large that maybe you believe are stupid but most of these people aren't fat assed CEO's that eat from silver spoons....instead THEY KNOW WHAT A BALANCE SHEET IS and they know when they are seeing a great big Texas sized pile of HORSESHIT!

What are we doing? How did we get to this juncture in this nation. Just how sick have we become when our own government institutes NDAA on its citizens and its constitution and there is not even a whimper from all of the phony flag wavers. One thing is certain. The measures being taken to jump start this economy should give you pause if you really harbor any bearish sentiment on PMs. gl

51 comments:

  1. just the beginning

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bank-america-fire-16000-year-end

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  2. Jobless claims 382K ....disappoints est 350k

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  3. The Keystone Speculator has a Gold & a Gold/Silver ratio chart on its site today.

    Basically, Keystone feels that Gold has reached its upper rail and is overbought. Thus, Keystone feels it will begin to roll over and retest 1525-1550 area. Then, Gold will rise again & Keystone seems bullish at that point on gold.
    Keystone also wrote that silver may outperform gold over the next few days or weeks, but then gold should take over and be the preferred metal.

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    1. that would be saweeet Doc....just don't count on it .....but it would be bot heavy by the physical buyers and they are in deep deep shit with that manipulation weakness.....the big physical buyers on stepping in heavy on weakness now

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  4. Anyone biting on PPP in the 4.80 area? Also, I'm looking to pick up some EXK today.

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    1. yes ryan....bot back some shares i traded at 5.60 back at 4.87

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    2. Wish I could play options on that but WAY too expensive.

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  5. I jumped in on PPP at 4.85. Added to my core.

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  6. scary flush on PPP would be healthy but don't expect it to last long

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  7. But I lean towards the "no good buying pullbacks" until they get this market even higher

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  8. Took the QCOR entry this morning and made some change..conference call at 8 might just send the shorts to hell and back to 50...

    21 million shorts before yesterday...the market is insanely crooked...as red said they are killing retail to pay for prostitutes....

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  9. just put up an HUI chart from yesterday....do ya think that daily might be a lil overbot

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  10. Have a friend in BAC "human resources"...she said in July this was coming after the DNC way. It doens't help things in Charlotte after we've had a nice bounce in housing, retail, etc.

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    1. Hmmmmm nothing like some good timing to make things appear what they are not...... Lotta that going around these days!


      btw: Doc you might be on to something with your pool request.....


      http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Big-wave-drags-US-couple-drowns-husband-in-Mexico-3879107.php

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    2. They were most likely walking south of lands end near Hotel Solmar, it's bad mojo there on big Southern Hemi swells, no shelf that extends from beach, thus wave jacks up and pounds steep sand shoreline....I have seen 20 ft swells and you hear them from 1/2 mile away....people just don't wait, observe then decide if its smart to walk...sets can come in on 22 second intervals...If you watch the water for 30 minutes you are in much better position to judge what is happening near shore...I do it everytime I surf....I want to know set intervals, sneaker sets, rip tides etc....

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    3. Never been there and dont surf but used to dive before the Mrs. Your so right folks don't respect the power of the ocean..... Used to see lot of stupid chit people did when diving....... O' well guess some have to learn the hard way unfortunately

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    4. your not missing much now...in the 70's and 80's it was a great little town to hang out...

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  11. watch 1.2993 (s1) 128.99 (S2)...4HOURS. If thses do not hold look for 1.26. thus far lower highs and lower lows. Spx should test 1445.

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    1. would be a nice pullback on miners if they correlate.....IF

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  12. I have noticed on "quiet"-down days miners correlate more.

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  13. Oops, after the DNC was over...I just don't see gold correcting to 1525 but of course anything is possible esp. if euro has hard down as sheeps predicts. No longer subscribe to itms b/c they kept promising a huge pullback which never materialized.

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  14. Wow, PPP really is monster. Was able to grab some at $4.94. PAL does look good too. Sitting on the 50 RSI. Have a buy order in at $1.95. Still holding my KGC, which was upgraded to buy this am by TD, price target of $13.50. Good luck everyone.

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  15. well well well.....hope you enjoyed the pullback.....hehehhe

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  16. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/popularity-greek-neo-nazi-party-continues-surging

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  17. Careful on the spx could be impulsive. Staying in the miners. Would add if I can.

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  18. It's a small world after all. Good day for a stroll through Beruit.

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  19. added a lil AUMN here near the bottom of the 2h channel

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    1. gotta take advantage of the sugar buzz

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  20. Honest,

    Am I right that DCTH is under accumulation today?

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    1. Ryan, I believe so...I seem to remember talk of fda decision in October as well as other good things around this time...

      I'm really liking abio, anx and oxgn right now...

      someone/hft just keeps playing bid game on it walking it down to .64-65 then scooping up big lot...somethings up..

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  21. you guys do not want to know how I feel about those trades....

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  22. opex so wtf? My charts are bearish but they clould flip this faster than I could take a shot of Jameson.

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  23. Busy for me this morning so I completely missed the PPP drop.
    I have been waiting for NKTR over 10, so need to decide if I will sell calls.
    My "kiddie wave pool" comment was meant to a joke, ie, people won't go on a surfing vacation and then spend time in a kiddie wave pool.

    Did any of you watch the pilot for that new TV series "Revolution"?? Not the best acting, but interesting none-the-less.

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  24. I know Doc...I was pointing out for the flat water crowd there is plenty to do outside of risking life and limb on the combination of big waves, shallow water, sharp reef and things that bite.... I have never been to your part of the country and would like to go. Take a trip from Maine to Key West is a bucket list trip for me.

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  25. Sheeps it would definitely be worth it! Love the Keys heheheeee those were the day's. If you ever do the Big Chitty tour call Kli's travle agent, that's the way you gotta do it!

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  26. State Department warns Americans against travel to Pakistan

    no kidding....they hate us imperialist over there, that place is for drones only....
    I had a boss that was pretty cool pakastani whom told me some tales over there as he was good looking guy and he was targeted by other guys whom wanted to partake if you know what I mean in one town...his guide said get out of here asap before your raped...
    said the whole time he carried a Sig and still felt underarmed...

    QCOR...might be making a trip back into 40's after opex...

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    1. he was underarmed....shoulda carried two glock 40s they weigh the same as one sig.....heheheh exaggerating but not totally.....and wait.....I thot they hated us for our freedom and values...oh wait.....we cant use that excuse anymore......no freedom anymore and that value thing is long gone

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  27. Didn't get in PPP either, maybe another chance tomorrow. Another weird opex day.

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    1. that would give us our correction in the PMs

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  28. To sheeps' point, big gap on DX on 8/19-20 @ just under 82.50. Close today was 79.42.

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  29. http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=e553fccc-11a8-4ce0-acc0-547ac46014a5

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  30. Ben Davies added “Our trend intensity signal suggested the median was 10% (for this move). But in reality, when we have such readiness in the market, we really are looking for at least (a) 20% to 25% (move).

    In light of the policy decisions that have been made, and the fact that the market has been surreptitiously held back, and that’s without a doubt, I think we really are pulling out the cork here. So I feel that by the end of the year gold will be over $2,000. I really feel that by May of next year, we’ll be $2,400 to $2,500. We’re starting a primary trend here.

    So here’s the problem. I’ve just given you some target levels. The market has run up quite a lot. The market feels structurally short. The market participants are not there yet. So the next pullback in the market, and potentially there will be one from these levels, but not that deep, you have to buy it.

    I would even go so far as to say that the market is not going to pull back much more than $1,735 to $1,740. Now it’s very to underestimate, when a market has run up, how far it can pull back, but it just doesn’t feel like market participants are in there yet, and I think even a shallow dip like that is going to bring strong buying in.”

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