Sunday, November 18, 2012


miners in spain fighting police in protest of austerity
No...the date is right. As discussed here for several years is not 2012 but the end of the deflationary supercycle and it confluence with several of the most damaging cycles that will take us all into the abyss economically and politically speaking. These cycles all converge on the end of 2014 and they will have their due......whether the Bernank or you like it. Just look at what is already occurring across Europe. It is truly becoming chaotic and a virtual daily circus of politicians and technocrats pronouncing the next new fix, when in fact the only fix they truly are going to implement is printing money through the ECB and the FED. Just look at the below clip this weekend from the Daily Mail.

Spanish miners fight furious battles with riot police as they protest austerity cuts to coal subsides

  • Nationwide strike organised by unions bitterly opposed to reductions in coal subsidies from €300 million to €110 million
  • Protesters set up barricades of burning tyres and launched home-made rockets at groups of riot police
  • Economic stagnation has pushed Spain's unemployment rate to above 24 per cent, the highest in the European Union
  • Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy said the country will stick to harsh austerity measures

Greece is going down into the abyss

Sounds to me like a problem here. On the other hand many of you recall the debates in 2008 that we all engaged in on whether we would actually break down into this type of chaos. Pundits pounded the table everyday on MSM outlets applauding the Fed's ability to control this very type of collapse by using all of their "tools" to keep the economy growing. Well the jury is no longer out. We're entering the "next phase". Will this deflationary washout deliver the promised reset and return to growth after it occurs or will it lead to something more ominous as the last deflationary cycle delivered in the 30's ie WAR! ?? Stay tuned because NO ONE knows. Violations of nature's law and the moral decay that ensues usually results in collapse....NOT JUST ECONOMICALLY but morally... as anyone that has their eyes open is already able to see in this country. Just look at the headlines on our "Generals". Aren't you proud? I know I want to wear two of those lapel flag pins to show my support for the "Generals".

We are all being slowly stripped of our collective and individual decencies. Its all being accelerated to prepare for the next phase. This is why the emphasis now is not to argue about whether we can just profit from the market but what do we do to preserve what is left of our own moral centers. What can we do as individuals to contribute in a "pay it forward" manner to help people that are struggling with this supercycle event.  I don't argue with people any longer about the future if they cannot see it after I give them just a few examples of the game......then they never will and I did try.....Last advice.....Keep your eyes on the sun. gl all

How unfortunate and how narrowing a thing it is for a man to have wealth who makes a god of it instead of a servant.
-Mark Twain in Open Letter to Commodore Vanderbilt, 1869


  1. Shorts better close out if they haven't by now....could be on our way to 1500 by end of year...then uh oh moments....

    ARNA, OSIR pick ups looking great...Silver above 360sma as of now...action jackson market in progress

    1. congrats chuck........letum play.....locked and loaded long...only making the obvious trades....which means I'm still waiting.......last really obvious trade was taking profit on 60% of my PPP......

  2. Nov Expiry was important on Silver options. Not sure why exactly but I think it's no coincidence they're letting it run this morning.

  3. look at AUQ chart channel....hmmmmm...just put it up

  4. hey update..

    used a water bob.....again....went with out water for 5 to 6 days...water main brake....I always keep 2 or 3 of the water bob on the can never know....

    I know the hand pump in cheep....keep a good pomp on hand...

    I do not know if you all saw this..

    WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Federal Reserve is asking 30 big banks to make sure their capital can withstand a deep recession in which the unemployment rate rises to 12%.

    In addition to considering an unemployment rate of roughly 12% — up from 7.9% in October — in the most severe recession scenario, banks must evaluate how their capital buffers would withstand real GDP declining by around 5%.

    Banks will also have to test for equity prices that would fall by more than 50% over the course of the recession, with house prices declining more than 20% and with commercial real estate prices falling by a similar amount.

    The 30 largest U.S. financial institutions will be required to submit capital plans to the Federal Reserve by Jan. 7.

    The Fed said that 19 of the largest banks under review have hiked their common capital to $803 billion in the second quarter of 2012 from $420 billion in the first quarter of 2009.

    1. "All hell is going to break lose, and its name is Currency Induced Cost Push Inflation." When this occurs is difficult to predict but what is not difficult to predict in the near term is STAGFLATION in many essentials and that alone will drive PM prices to 3500......which is Jim's much discussed number...but that will only signal the end of the second phase of the gold bull market.....It will be the Third phase that will shock you in gold price and Jim does allude to that but it is so variable and unpredictable in its conclusion that he prefers NOT to give those numbers

  5. as to the update.

    the 401K

    my company was bought out as of late..

    the 401K was not I know where they stand..

    I have been ordered to move my 401K to a IRA.. the cut off..

    so there is a GOD......I can get out of my 401K and keep my job....

    at this point I will cash it out..

    GOD help me If I am wrong

  6. Good luck Paladin!

    Anyone kind of noticing similar pattern here on dollar...check this out..Could be seeing H&S on dollar at same time frame....Could being optimal word here....

    1. note this is daily cash settle on week dollar right now is near 50sma on that chart...80.88 last print...

  7. That is a very telling chart chuck...I'll put it up above

    1. the shoulders are almost identical which kind of freaks me out and also could be used as caution and take it for what it's worth should be noted...

      add in the time frame similarities and if it follows similar course..commodities would definitely be place to be....

    2. I have no leveraged or strict timing bets so it has no deleterious/trap effects for me. Also the miner and PM trade can completely decouple short term from the dollar trade. at the very least if its a trap I think they take it to the neckline area

  8. GOD help me If I am wrong

    when I said this.....

    I do not trade for myself.....I trade for my family ...friends and neighbors..

    they will all show up on my back porch..

    I know this is what it is ....I can not teach is what it is......can any of you turn them away.....well can you..

    well can you turn them away....I bet you can not...

    so at the end of the day I am my brothers

    /neighbors keepers

    I am OK with that....I am a human

  9. so the question I ask..

    if you have plenty.....will you turn your neighbors away...


    1. Yes.....many will...not all time all of us will be tested by the bear of all bears....all of you will have the opportunity to step out of the abyss and into a higher level of can call it what you may but it will change you.....remember I said you will have your chance

      “I don't want to live in the kind of world where we don't look out for each other. Not just the people that are close to us, but anybody who needs a helping hand. I cant change the way anybody else thinks, or what they choose to do, but I can do my bit.”
      ― Charles de Lint

    2. My wife literally just stepped into my office after this comment and related a story to me of calling a local thrift store that is operated by friends employing Down's children to help. She asked if she could send them some children's clothing and the lady said OMG I just had a family that is living in a small tent enclave in our State Park with a new baby and children that are destitute. Hmmmmmmmmm funny how life works.....I guess I know what I will be doing tomorrow......thnx Paladin

  10. Yes, good luck paladin, don't know your line of work...just holding & trying to enjoy every last minute. Not sure about the $ with the ME heating up. Just as a side note: Mrs. Broadwell & family arrived back here on Sat. and threw a party on Sun. Dr. Broadwell looks perfectly happy as does she but I think it is criminal that the press is camped out on their lawn taking pictures of the children. There certainly should be some law ag. that. Very strange scenario, makes me wonder whether the affair is "real".

  11. Paladin,

    My wife is in a similar situation. She has a small retirement plan from a former job. We got a letter a couple months ago about taking possession and rolling it over to a new 401K.

    Well, the paperwork arrived and we have to make a decision by the end of this month. We too will likely cash it out and unfortunately pay the damn penalty.

    Just seems like in these modern times, "a bird in the hand is worth more than a whole flock in the bush".

  12. Doc...

    Seems to be with capital gains tax going up..keeping a couple extra birds that would be taxed even better..

    cheers and good trading to all...ARNA could break out and head into high teens...their competition VVUS is dead on the water with Doctors wanting no part of it....



  15. hey scalpers...OXGN just got orphan drug status on Leukemia..hasn't hit the wires...just jumped in at .37....might jump...I'm in for scalp only..

  16. A Bigger Tax Burden
    Many of the tax cuts enacted in 2001 and 2003 — including rates on regular income, capital gains, dividends, and estates — are scheduled to expire on December 31, 2012, and revert to their previously higher levels. The 2% payroll tax reduction for workers, enacted as a temporary stimulus, is also set to expire at the end of the year.

    The expiring tax provisions could cause the federal tax bill of the average middle-income household (earning $50,000 annually) to rise by about $1,750, and higher-earning families could owe thousands more in total federal taxes.3

    Federal Budget Cuts
    The Budget Control Act of 2011 mandated $1.2 trillion in deficit reduction spread over nine years (2013–2021), divided evenly between defense and nondefense programs. About $109 billion in automatic budget cuts are scheduled to go into effect on January 1, 2013 ($54.7 billion a year from U.S. defense spending). Pay for military service members and Social Security and Medicare benefits are exempt.4

    hey all.....I think the super congress will go ahead on 1-1-2013 if the they try to kill automatic cuts scheduled to take effect
    in January 2013...then it is bake into the cake......S&P....Moodys...and others will down grade the USA.....bonds will go up...

    1. whatever the course is chosen there will be hell to pay

    2. Yup sure will and they all have no idea what's about to hit u'm.... Dont forget to throw in the new taxes and fees for Obama Care..... The fun is just getting started!

  17. from stephen leeb on KWN
    At some point in the next two years there will be a two week period where quality stocks triple. In order for investors to be part of that move, they have to pay the price of waiting. I remember in the office where I worked there was a guy there that was following gold, and this was in the mid-70s. But he had basically nailed the bottom in gold at about $100. He was invested in and following this small Philippine gold mine called Benguet.

    Well, he finally got sick and tired of the stock not moving and so he finally sold it at some point in 1978 or 1979. The stock had done nothing. It just kind of flat-lined most of the time, and eventually went down from where he bought it. Within a week of when he sold it, that stock immediately went up five or six fold. I’m not kidding. That is a lesson I have never forgotten.

    If you have mining shares which are quality companies, you’ve got to stay invested until that move finally happens. Investors will not be able to time when those type of moves are going to happen, but they can make sure they are there when it happens. You have to be patient. You may feel like you are just stuck in this stuff. But then all of the sudden they will begin to move and nobody will ring a bell to announce it.

    You will just have to be patiently waiting in them. All of the sudden you will see your wealth multiply many fold, and you just have to be patient invested until it happens.”

  18. also you can kiss your 99 weeks good by

    1. Kli,

      What's your opinion on the top 5 quality company mining stocks?

    2. HA!!........wish I knew......but I just invest in a basket and try to trade the edges......PAAS AUQ SSRI AUMN ......then play CGR GORO BRD......HL is good here too.....I own more but that will get you started...cannot pick a fav

    3. I can tell you a few NOT to buy........ hehehehehe

    4. yup tom.....thats why I hold a basket..hehehhee....

  19. testing 1 2 3. hi y'all.
    hope this works.

    1. yay! this is joe alpha who used to live in alpharetta ga. now i live in ma.
      i've been reading this blog from day 1 and finally got to add a line or two.

      thank you kli.

    2. welcome Joe....keep commenting