Wednesday, November 28, 2012

THE PRICE OF APATHY

Black Friday shoppers fight at Wally World
Don't let your dignity or simple acts of decency get in the way of a Christmas bargain in the season of giving is the motto of the "greatest nation". After all it is "bargain time". Pictures of shoppers engaged in frenzied buying makes better copy for the "animal spirits" than pics of people living day to day on food stamps and unsure how they are going to pay for next month's heating bill. To add a touch of irony to the entire macabre scenes during the early holiday shopping season, you get to watch reporters wearing Cashmere coats and designer clothing reporting on hoards of people (whose monthly incomes couldn't pay for the reporter's tie) fighting for chance to purchase an $80 electronic device to play games on. Just look at what we are devolving into. Orwell would probably be shocked at just how quickly his "Orwellian totalitarian state" became reality and then some. Once the ball starts rolling it becomes impossible to predict and control. Even the move towards a globalized state becomes unpredictable and exceedingly more dangerous as the economic deleveraging clock ticks on. Make no mistake we have a rendezvoux with destiny. The next two years are the "hard down" years of the Kress cycle and they will not be kind to the debt bingers and the unprepared in line for flat screens. Many people are getting it however and they tend to be the more bright and more capable members of the society. They know there is a palpable fear but many have just not been able to connect the dots. It will require the washout for enough people to demand change and if they do then eventually it will come.....at least to some degree. Its the "in between" landscape that you will need to navigate.

Look around you at your friends and family. Most are mired in the distractions that have been developed over decades to distract them from the game. They spend 90% of their waking hours absorbed in mundane television programming, video games, sporting events, etc. How many billion dollar professional sports stadiums are there now in the U.S.? How many vampire movies have there been over the past 10 years? Look at the programming.......a vast desert of meaningless feces spread on the screen. Its not what the public demands.....its what the public is force fed. If you think its random, then just try and have a conversation about subjects that you are familiar with like the economy or the military interventions or the presidents of the PIGS.....etc. NO RESPONSE?? Of course there is no response. Pay attention to yourself and to your own. Pay attention to what YOU can do something about!

Back to the Casino. "Shocking" dump at the opening of over 15000 contracts of gold and an equally large amount of silver a little later.....no surprise given the precarious position that headline prices place on fiat AND the risk of bullion bank defaults. Hang tight. The game is going to get a lot rougher than this.




40 comments:

  1. the massive dump of gold contracts yesterday hardly dented the gold price and left miners in the green. You tell me what that says is happening now. Buckle up

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  2. from today

    From UBS:

    One Sentence Perfectly Describes The Quandary On Three Continents – The ultimate award for candor and honesty must go to Jean-Claude Junker (Prime Minister of Luxembourg) who apparently said – "We all know what to do, we just don't know how to get re-elected after we have done it." That say's it all.

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  3. Because maybe if they told the truth, then they wouldn't be elected,...and then someone else would be elected,...they those new people might investigate and prosectute the former???

    They may be more here that just being worried about being re-elected.

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  4. Last time I recall seeing a number of technical analysts agreeing on a price spike in silver, it ran from the low $30's to $49+. Now starting to see a few calling for a move up to the $90 range. Something to keep in mind, especially for my leveraged account. Must be careful not to blow myself up...again.

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  5. blowing oneself up goes with the territory SK playing the levered game...but its where the fireworks are if you catch the right wave........gl

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    1. I did very well on the move to $49 but took some crazy chances. I had massive positions at times which, looking back, I don't know how I was able to eat or sleep. The volatility seems greater now so I won't do that again. I'm going to give myself a lot of margin room and sell some on the pops and buy on the dips. If we do get a move such as some are predicting (we will someday for sure), I'll do very well without taking on as much risk as I did the last time. Of course, my safety net is my physical and mining shares which are never traded or sold.

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    2. I just picture Jessica Alba lying next to me and I can't eat or sleep either of course in your position I would take that dream to another level....:)

      shhh..don't tell my wife...

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    3. sounds solid SK...as long as you have physical

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  6. Chuck look at ARNA.....looks like its setting up to explode and it has a huge short interests

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    1. they are very close to getting the go ahead to sell from the FDA...but somehow with MM's still trying to get in, it seems the FDA is taking it's sweet time...I wonder whom has their ear.....

      $30 stock in 12 months...

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  7. The Fiscal Cliff is a joke. I mean we all know that when the time comes the Fed's will send the stock market lower and Obama and Timmy and Ben will point to the non cooperative GOP which will scare them in to voting a bad deal for us.. That's why Gold and silver are doing so good. The smart money knows it's print for ever and that of course will bring about higher and higher costs for everything. And on another note. The drought is getting worse even with it colder out we are still in very bad shape. The fall rains missed all but a little part of the eastern corn belt and now they are getting dryer now too. The drought has 60% of the USA in it's grasp including a good part of Minnesota now. The fall rains never really came and if we don't get a lot of spring moisture it's going to be very bad. I can't even wrap my head around just how dire this could be.. Thanks for the daily blog Kli
    Matt

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    1. thanx for the report Matt....I wasn't sure how your area had recovered. Hope we get a wet winter and spring but these type of droughts tend to last more than one year

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    2. A friend of mine's husband works within NOAA and they are looking at a western drought in the same league as the one that took out the Anazazi people....

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    3. here ya go

      http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/seasonal_drought.html

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  8. I'm going back to supposed bad news buying of deeply bruised stocks due to either games or shorts...I made some great change on DCTH, NKTR, Qcor and ARNA

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  10. Every once in a while I read an article that sounds very reasonable; I would agree with the conclusions, unless I knew some other facts. Zero Hedge had an article this week about "sky rocketing student loan defaults".
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-27/scariest-chart-quarter-student-debt-bubble-officially-pops-90-day-delinquency-rate-g
    This article showed a chart of 90 day default rates. What this doesn't show, is that reporting of these defaults changed. 90 day defaults can get very easy deferments. It used to take over 30 days for the 90 day defaults to get reported. The reporting time has recently become more efficient. It is now under 3 days. I believe the default rise is caused by a change in reporting. Most of these will be deferred when the borrow is contacted by the lender; allowing the borrower to continue to pay down their high interest credit card debt instead.

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    1. I don't follow your logic. You are saying that because the reporting is becoming more efficient, the default rate will appear higher but that's just on overstatement?

      Furthermore, you then say that these higher reported defaults will turn into deferrals because the borrowers would rather take the money and pay off their high interest credit cards?

      Am I getting this correct? If not, please clarify. Thanks.

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  11. Most defaults are cleared and become deferments. Previously, the defaults would get cleared before they were reported in default. Now defaults are reported quicker. These are still getting deferred. If we had a 120 day or 150 day default chart, you would not see this data spike.

    Standard Student loan debt is very easy to get deferred. The debt loans which you need to look at to see real problems is the parent plus program. These loans put the parents on the hook when the student does not pay.

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    1. Deferrals are a sign that people can't pay off their loans. The fact that they have this avenue of delay doesn't mean that everything is honky dory. I"m not sure where you get the info regarding people instead paying off credit card debt.

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  12. Ken...correct me if I am wrong. Its not that the defaults are suddenly increasing but that the reporting change makes them appear to be. Once they are deferred as previous defaults were then they will magically disappear from the balance sheets but the debt will remain to the student. They will remain a debt slave but who owns this debt?

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  13. Kli. You are correct. Also, the taxpayer holds the debt. (I am sometime inarticulate.)

    The real problem that the student loan system is having right now is students who can't pay, but have loans with parental guarantees. These are getting paid, but by the parents. Most parents never expected this expense.

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    1. thnx Ken. Look for the derivative concentration to take the next hit. If you can identify the derivative exposure then you know the blow up

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  14. still consolidating and shaking out the leverage.....nothing to see here today

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  15. Kli - deferral is just another word for future default. We will see huge debt forgivness of mortgages and student loan debt by 2015 (see Jubilee in Levictus chapt 26). This debt forgiveness will be the source of deflation as huge amounts of fiat currencey evavorates.

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    1. thanx inlet and agree.....your timeline fits with Kress

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    2. If they start giving away free homes, who will pay the home builders?
      Putting a sudden end to all construction as we know it cannot and will not work.

      People will still have babies.

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    3. Jay single family homes are not necessarily a malinvestment...BUT...the amount of capital shifted to this sector by the tax deduction is insane. Now why in the world do you think tax payers through the tax code should be supplementing a family of four to buy a 600,000 dollar 5000 sq ft house in Alabama....if you believe that helping the homebuilding industry is more important to the health of the economy than say a failing manufacturing sector then of course the answer is build more mcmansions at taxpayer expense. I have no opinion on the debt jubilee but one way or another we are all screwed and the mortgage deduction will be greatly modified

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  16. The PM flash crashes are getting tiresome. Of course, that is the purpose...been away in the great state of Georgia, they've had virtually no rain for a year. Taking a look at arna, thanks to all.

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  17. Sister, see how hard they flush this...solid floor on Arna at 7.25
    http://s18.postimage.org/nq7d0ewp5/arna_113012.jpg

    Mutual fund monday will tell a lot...

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  18. the line of health for dow
    http://s17.postimage.org/mcm27duen/Dow_113012.jpg

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  19. Jay - no free homes, the debt gets wiped out, any asset pledged gets taken back, the debt holders and taxpayers get screwed as huge amounts of fiat currency gets wiped out. Pension funds get screwed. Insurance companies get screwed as part of this process. Individuals with debt start over at zero...

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  20. Norway’s Wealth Fund to Invest $11 Billion in U.S. Real Estate...this is a joke...kings and serfs...

    A great rant by Bernie Sanders..needs to be seen by all americans....pass it on
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=riKEBVd26Wo

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  21. Per Inlet's last comment--"Insurance companies get screwed...".
    Which is why I am cashing out a whole life insurance policy that I have had for a number of years. Paperwork to do so arrived in the mail recently. I'll put the money into a physical-type asset.
    If things get ugly, I am not sure how insurance will be able to pay all their claims. Or they will pay with worthless dollars.

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  22. Just a couple of thoughts on the Student Loan nonsense….. Which is just another way to create the next generation of debt slaves……

    Currently the Student under the Stafford program can borrow the following:

    1st Year/Freshman
    (0 - 24 credits) $5,500—No more than $3,500 of this amount may be in subsidized loans. $9,500—No more than $3,500 of this amount may be in subsidized loans.
    2nd Year/Sophmore
    (25 - 55 credits) $6,500—No more than $4,500 of this amount may be in subsidized loans. $10,500—No more than $4,500 of this amount may be in subsidized loans.
    3rd Year/Junior & 4th Year/Senior
    (56+ credits) $7,500—No more than $5,500 of this amount may be in subsidized loans. $12,500—No more than $5,500 of this amount may be in subsidized loans.

    Maximum Total Debt from Stafford Loans When You Graduate (i.e., your aggregate loan limits) $31,000—No more than $23,000 of this amount may be in subsidized loans.

    $57,500—No more than $23,000 of this amount may be in subsidized loans.

    So there is a maximum of debt the student will leave college hanging around their neck, however as mentioned by Ken there is the “Parent PLUS Student Loans” to makeup the balance and Mom & Dad is responsible. This is the typical loan that is pushed. There are other loans both public and private that can be used to fund the typical five year four year degree(not a typo). So in the end it is not inconceivable up here in the North East to leave with a debt of over 100k…. Considering most never saved anything for college. This debt is not dis-chargeable in almost all cases via bankruptcy, so whatever you borrow, well you own it forever!!!!

    It’s truly evil considering most graduates will not be able to find work in their chosen field of study but hey there’s always Starbuck’s!

    On another note the Catherine Austin Fitts & Ann Hess video was excellent and done in simple speak so it’s easier to pass along to get others to understand.

    Here’s another one:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gP6rny-E1Cw

    For the stupid is as stupid does file….. Why would anyone live within one mile of a bay or canal 5 foot above sea level in most cases and NOT BUY FLOOD INSURANCE!!!! The number of people I’m hearing that did not carry Flood Insurance is surprisingly high, so you can use that as an example of just how many folks are not going to be prepared for what’s to come since they didn’t even cover the obvious….

    And just wait for the renewal on your homeowners insurance the increase in premiums over the next few years should be stout as they certainly will be spreading the pain from up here across the fruited plains. Spent this week in one of the areas down by the water helping a friend, the water damage is unbelievable, if this was a full on Cat 3 or Cat 4…… Holy Chit!

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    1. Exactly the reason why that 80 billion dollar request from NJ and NY should be maxed out at about 11-15 billion. They disregarded the fed disaster limit per house of $31,000 because of expensive property values in those states. Now they want every American to fix their mess because they built literally on the water..

      Sorry, that $80 billion is $530 for every worker citizen in the US..It's such in overinflated pork number it will make the unions happy. It will take them years of labor they way they work, milking the rest of the nation because they built in areas that are in flood and tidal zones...

      Sorry, time for reality. Give them as much as Katrina max...and end the federal disasters bailouts that many people in the nation have to pay for because the guilty parties just decided to build where they want..I don't expect anyone to bail me out when the earthquake hits here..were big time phucked when it happens and we'll have to deal with it. The 80 billion is more than the current tax increase revenue generated from the bush tax cuts expiring....funny that...

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    2. Honest,
      Whaaaat…… are you accusing Andrew of padding the bill? You have a thing about dahose Union Worker’s? Hehehehe…..

      Actually I believe Andrew might be underestimating the total cost but should the rest of the Country foot the bill? I think not but they will foot quite a bit….. Just as all insured homeowners did with Katrina via premium increases and now Sandy; it’s just the way it’s done, spreading the pain around……..

      I have no problem with folks living on the water BUT the risk should be on the homeowner, so they should either self-insure and file a surety bond as proof or pay enormous premiums for Commercial Insurance if you can get one to write a policy down by the bay after this……. Lastly, Flood Insurance need be mandatory with the appropriate premiums collected given the risk.

      The stupid part of this whole thing is everyone expects someone else to make them whole for the risks they took but outcomes never anticipated! Look if you play with fire you’re sooner or later you’re going to get burned, if you live by the water, pretty much the same, sooner or later you’re going to get wet……..

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  23. Doing the same Doc, should have it wrapped up by mid-January…. A bird in hand is worth two in the bush!

    Hoping that they flash crash some more and beat u'm down hard, it's Christmas so I'm in the mood to go shopping, just not at the mall's :)

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  24. what a load of horse shit..

    do you have your game face on..???????

    paladin

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  25. honestcreditguy & Tom

    Norway’s Wealth Fund to Invest $11 Billion in U.S. Real Estate

    On another note the Catherine Austin Fitts & Ann Hess video was excellent and done in simple speak so it’s easier to pass along to get others to understand.

    Here’s another one:
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gP6rny-E1Cw

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