Thursday, December 20, 2012

CRITICAL TIMES

Certainly the beatdown in the PM headline price today was a setback for the retail investors in the paper game, but for those that understand just how broken the system is from a mathematical standpoint it was just another opportunity to buy physical. Just a few short weeks after QE to infinity and we have metal prices just strangled. As Central Bank after Central Bank announce purchases of Gold tonnage we have struggling gold prices. As universal debasement of developed debtor nation's currencies occur we have gold losing value. As we continue to struggle with world economies as the debt super cycle enters into its critical phase one has to ask themselves where IS safety for their wealth. Is it in a "rigged market" with the exodus of millions of investors?  Is it in sovereign bonds that are at historically low rates at the end of a very long bull cycle? Maybe its real estate? They aren't making anymore of it, but many types of real estate has heavy carrying costs. Of course fertile farmland will retain value but its already selling for over 10K/acre in the corn belt, and has to be managed for efficient usage. Virtually every asset class has a counter-party risk that make your decision difficult at best.

I listened to a Kyle Bass interview yesterday (sorry my device tonight won't permit me linking) and I was surprised to hear some of his circuitous logic. He began his interview with a slightly rambling few statements that involved slamming the mathematics of the debt bubble in most of the developed nations and stated that he felt a major was was inevitable. He then drifted into an explanation later that he owned gold but did not view it necessarily as one of his best ideas....and then wandered into a relatively weak defense of his housing and his MBS investments. I began to sense he was more or less talking his book and kept waiting for him to go back to his comments on a major war coming because of the devastating debt conditions, but he ended with a weak argument that things would muddle through after starting out with a declarative "hell is coming" introduction. I think a lot of us are like him...intellectually we feel that "hell is coming" but deep down we're praying we muddle through and trying to position ourselves if we make it through the gauntlet.  So take today AND the last few weeks and just recognize that down the road this is going to look like a blip when nature takes over.

I hope all of you and yours have a VERY HAPPY HOLIDAY....I am on the road and should be home in a few days and back on my main device....gl all

39 comments:

  1. Mayan bullshit and ES crash...maybe these twisted bastards want to have some fun with the peeps tonite

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They are playing with occult magic numbers and the winter solstice for maximum impact.

      The right shoulder has enough energy both in the markets and for companies like AAPL. A resolution after Xmas and before New Years may be meaningless if the technical setup is allowed to play to, the bounce will be from a much lower level and meaningless.

      Gotta go in to work since the world ain't ending tomorrow; next year will be the descent into hell globally though.

      Delete
  2. he he he.. The CNBS Rise Above movement forgot about the Mayan long count. The Market ticker has a Kli type rant going...Vix should be red tomorrow and PM's down.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Damn Mayans!! Who wudda thunk end o the world would be a "limit down ES futures market"

      Delete
  3. Saw this movie before...... First TARP vote anyone! Tanks in the street ect, ect, ect......

    Kli,

    You bugging out for the Mayan Holiday? Hehehehehe

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  4. Tis scary out.

    The Bernake pipe dream smells like it is going up in smoke.... This will be a confragration to behold. However, the spinsters will create a word cloud and soothe the algos by the AM....if tomorrow comes.

    What Mess.

    Merry Christmas Kli and All.

    --Sheeps

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Tomorrow already came in the far east and pretty soon in Europe..

      Quadruple witching tomorrow...lots of news data to turn it around or push it down further..Algo-HFT's might be rusty on volatility gap and runs....should be interesting...

      the govt. critters could just raise the debt ceiling next week and let tax cuts expire along with automatic spending cuts to negotiate from a different angle..

      Merry Christmas to all

      Delete
  5. Sarcasm on my part about PM's and the VIX. Both SHOULD be green...which means the opposite is likely to occur.

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  6. Big snow storm coming to my area, so maybe the Mayans were right. But, around here, we tend to like that sort of event. Ski country might get 14 inches and after today, I'm off the next 4 days. Pile it on baby,...pile it on.

    Oh, & Merry Christmas to all.

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  7. i couldn't agree more, Kli.

    before i skip town, wishing you and the rest a merry christmas.

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  8. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AUMN&p=W&yr=3&mn=7&dy=0&id=p01188177196&a=268723858&listNum=1

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  9. Good morning everyone..We made it thru the Mayan end of the world...Merry Christmas!

    I think they bring this pretty close to even by end of the day..light holiday volume should help a little....

    I will now proceed to make Margaritas to celebrate Mayans being just like us, sometimes right often times wrong....

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  10. We are all still here :) Cool! Really glad I'm not that nut in Hong Kong that spent it all bet he's feeling a little low right about now hehehehe.... Just got done fixing my flat tire first in about 15 years, must have been the Mayan's. Anyway wishing all a Very Merry Christmas and Happy Holiday and glad YOUR getting the snow Doc!

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  11. TVIX board fell to the operation no free speech today too..in the interest in ????

    Tvix has almost doubled off the low and has had a reverse split. Like boil may roll fer a while.

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  12. hopefully this board will remain open. I try to keep my posts "subdued" for that reason....we'll see....should get worse ahead

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  13. Tom,
    It is snowing now--nice size flakes. Starting to accumulate too.

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  14. Caught in major blizzard yesterday and in the middle they closed the interstate on me.......50mph plus winds made it very wild...amazing what a GPS AND an Iphone can do for you

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  15. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/12/19_Diplomat_Admits_China_Is_Accumulating_Gold_To_Back_The_Yuan.html

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  16. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/12/20_Maguire_-_Physical_Silver_Market_Has_Now_Diverged_To_Extremes.html

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  17. very controlled phase on PMs.......masterful I must say.......hehhehehe......"we will turn the switch on when we are ready"

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  18. gold closed over key 1655 resistance now key support for monday...keep your eye onit

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  19. For a down day, both biotech's NKTR & ZLCS were up. NKTR broke thru resistance at 7 dollars at slightly above average volume.
    SVM remains one hurting puppy.

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  20. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2012/12/21_Maguire_-_Shocking_$2.89_Premium_For_Physical_Silver_In_China.html

    trouble in doodah

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  21. Honest,

    I think you were right that FEMA should have just stuck with the minimums on storm payouts......

    Turning into a real free for all!

    http://www.nypost.com/p/news/national/little_help_here_1kW6aQ8fElj4CKwbheEV0N

    This link provide a tad more detail....

    http://www.taxpayer.net/library/article/brief-analysis-of-selected-provisions-in-proposed-senate-supplemental-appro

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Holy shit...it's loaded full of pork...

      Delete
    2. Yup sure is, more Pork in that bill than at the annual American Royal Barbecue Contest!!

      Delete
  22. kil...

    the Bass post is this is it not

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-19/hour-company-kyle-bass

    what I got out of it is if Japan trys to inflate......they are done

    and what is Japan going to do.....inflate..with the new PM.....same as a old PM as he is


    crap

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  23. the 401K cash out update

    I ask then to send me the cash out in 4 or 5 checks...

    I got the first check......40 to 50 K

    the bank I went to ask me.....questions about it..
    how did I come into this money.....where did this money come from...are you shitting me.....

    so out of the blue I asked.....can I pull 10K out of my account.....been there for years....

    they told me they would need to ask for permission to pull it

    are you shitting me..

    are you all seeing this on your end

    I have 100K in this bank.......10K......are you shitting me

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I try to keep cash withdrawals under 5k. Huge red flags and paperwork come into play around 10k even with the money available. Don't get any 100s of 50s, small unmarked bills.

      If they ask why, tell you are taking a vacation to Colorado.

      Delete
    2. Red is correct and they CAN question cash transactions under the 10k threshold depends on your transaction history. Has happened to me before...... Just told them I was transferring it to Atlantic City hehehehe Chitty part was I did!

      Delete
  24. they put a 6 day hold on this...check

    my 5K checking account is now -21K

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  25. I went to my wifes bank to deposit an SSI check...she is very ill ya know...The teller late 20's questioned the check up one side and down the other. I felt like a criminal making the deposit for somebody else..I just kept quiet as possible.

    Getting very strange out it tis.

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  26. apparently a number of yahoo message boards have blown up.....anyone hear anything.

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    Replies
    1. Dusting off the blizzard and trying to catch up

      Delete
    2. a lot of etf or etn MB's are out. SDS, SKF, QID, SRS, ... are all out

      "normal" companies like aapl, csco, ibm, ... are ok.

      that's strange!

      Delete
  27. Bill Black on UBS, HBC and who created the Fiscal Cliff and why. Short interview.
    http://sgtreport.com/2012/12/black-too-big-to-prosecute-and-its-obamas-fiscal-cliff/

    ReplyDelete
  28. Not that strange Joe....These boards used to be a hot bed of truth..later a sewer. But, could become useful in a crash. Thus, they must be eradicated. Move along now will ya.

    ReplyDelete