Tuesday, February 28, 2012

THIS IS WHERE IT GETS SERIOUS

Don't look behind you...we've got a wall of rocks...we have no choice but to fight
The game hasn't changed......don't worry.....it just continuing. We are in the early stages of a nice bull run in the miners. I spent the last 6 months of 2011 trying to exercise some patience in the accumulation phase and holding some serious cash if they tried to take another leg down this year but it looks as if the accumulation phase is nearing an end and the train is about to leave the station. Maybe that train will roar out of the station at an amazing speed tomorrow but if that is what your concern is then you are going to miss out on the real trip. The real trip is going to be the last week or two of the ride. That's when we will see new highs in these miners. Its the parabolic last move that sends the miners up the final 15-20%. It will be the high volatility moves that entice the longs in for the kill and let the big boyz load up their shorts. Maybe they'll use a nice descending wedge for the tip over.......or maybe they'll just crank it over the edge.......but right now its all about the ride. When all the CNBS pundits start touting the silver/gold trade is going to go on forever then I'll start to worry and look for the exit door. If you are not a trader then sit back and just watch out the window. We're going to see a lot of scenery over the next few months. Some of it will scare you but that's going to be their objective. Its to shake you out and it usually works. I will certainly lighten up on my core if we have some parabolic moves that start extending the daily BBs ...MACDs......STOCHS.....and RSIs........but right now were in the early innings of this game and I apologize for that cliche analogy. Build up your courage and expect some real fireworks ahead ......good and bad........but this is offense now. They have no choice this year but to throw the kitchen sink at this mess. gl


Sunday, February 26, 2012

100 TRILLION LTRO!

YES!! It could be. One never knows just what might happen with the last planned LTRO announcement this week. ..from WSJ......
As we noted yesterday, a key event for next week, and possibly beyond, is shaping up to be the second long-term refinancing operation from the European Central Bank – otherwise known as the LTRO.
There seems to be a lot riding on next week’s LTRO. Investors have come to view the ECB’s cheap loans to the Continent’s struggling banks as a central to the recent stability in peripheral European bond markets.
RBS surveyed 160 bond investors and found on average the group expects next week’s take-up for the ECB’s money manna to be €574 billion. That would be an increase from the €489 billion hoovered up by banks in December.  Expectations ranged from €201 billion to €1.437 trillion.
And three quarters expect the ECB to announce additional LTRO operations, mainly if market conditions deteriorate. (Next week’s is currently the last on the calendar.)
According to Jim Sinclair the next few weeks promise to be some very exciting weeks for PM investors and just to show you how excited I am, I just might trade more than a couple of hours/day...sarcasm off. I am seriously expecting continued moves up for many of the miners during the coming weeks and hope that most of you by now understand just how much power the Central Bankers have and just how much they despise the PMs. They organize naked shorting of gold and silver and the miners to prevent the headline sticker shock from exposing their debasing of the world's currencies to prop up their horrific malinvestments. GL all and stay alert. The printing machines MUST go on.


Sunday, February 19, 2012

THE WEEK AHEAD

My guess is we continue to remain in the triangle forming on gold prices as the market struggles to break above 1750 cash price. This is a consolidation phase in my opinion that is playing out. The market forces at work are not your typical buyers and sellers such as hedges IBs retail etc. There are much bigger players involved in this move and they are all trying to game the trade that is being played in the stratosphere of the Central Bankers. Ultimately the Central Bankers will allow the price of gold and especially silver to rise again, but right now there are some very big players using the Central Banker's price suppression to accumulate very large amounts of gold, silver, and PM MINERS at bargain prices while the retail traders cowers in fear of a massive beatdown occurring again. Another round of severe deflation in the near term AND an accompanying flush of the gold and silver prices is certainly possible. On the other hand this is a market that has a multitude of factors present that make this possibility less and less likely. Right now there remains in place a Fear factor in the precious metal trade. It has been carefully crafted by the boyz for a multitude of reasons that if understood, should give you some solace in your position as a long in this market right now. Of course there are those out there that rightfully so claim there is a correlation of the PM prices and miners with the overall equity market.To some degree this is true and it has been also used as a tool to keep retail and hedges out of the trade. This will eventually cost many people sitting on the sidelines waiting for the perfect entry a lot of money. Its the way the game is played. Its the "accumulation game".  As you know if you read this I have traded these miners and PMs through PSLV and PHYS throughout last years "run up" and "beatdown". At times my "core" became so low that my real risk to me anyway.....was that they ripped it higher without being on the train. I was lucky and the provided us all a nice fibonacci 8 month takedown. Now we MIGHT be starting another nice rise to new highs....you will not know for several months. So yes......you DO HAVE RISK. The second half of 2011 was used to flush all the weak hands out of the PM miner trade and used as an opportunity to accumulate these shares at bargain prices into the hands of the big boyz. There are no single cartel owning these miners. The usual suspects of course are there but there are a multitude of big players using this price correction to buy. You can watch the tape each day and notice the early day gap downs and price dips that keep getting bought with the prices frequently ending well off the lows of the day. These are stealth buying and really not that concealed. The current pattern of consolidation indicates this also as the strong hands remain resolute. Will there be a nice flush (probably only intraday) that really shakes loose some of the recent weak hands that might have jumped on this last bounce? Maybe....but if you are playing this without a core and waiting for this move then good luck. Maybe it occurs with a nice SnP equity flash crash of 400pts. Maybe ....

I have tried to put up charts that are not just daily charts but weekly and even monthly to show the doubters out there that these PM equities are far from overbought. There is a lot of room to move to the upside. We are in strange times and if money printing is bullish for the PM trade then you have to believe in the longer term hold that these equities and bullion represent. Just an aside .....LNG was a huge trade for me last year but it could have been much bigger. Look at what they did to it recently......driving LNG to 3 intraday a few months ago then reversing it and ripping it to almost 16........I missed most of that due to FEAR. I watched it that day it dumped and missed my opportunity. Most of you did too. That's what emotion can do.

This post is for those of you still in paper trading. The smartest readers out there are out of paper trading and into bullion and hard assets such as farmland and other metals like platinum palladium copper etc......good luck! I will be out of the area this week but will the tethered most days......graphics will be limited. until next week. Use the charts on this post for the week.

Thursday, February 16, 2012

BULL WINS!

Maybe....but don't bet on it. As the money printing goes.....so goes the market. If you haven't figured out the game yet then get off the merry go round. This bus doesn't stop until the printing press stops. Right now they have an enormous liquidity hole to fill and they have the spigots wide open to keep the liquidity from draining out. Without the impact of higher costs of essentials like oil and food stopping the printing presses the game will continue. While you fret about the costs of assets declining like homes, and commercial property, the big boyz are moving into the longer term protection from the eventual inflation as currency devaluation eventually will overcome the Kondratieff Winter. The question for you is what the timing is? If you adhere to the cycle theory then cash is still king. Just remember that the big money has a lot more cash than you and can weather a lot of the first tsunami wave of deflation. If you are going to paper trade the casino then you have to hang on to a large cash position in case they turn that 200ma on the major indexes into a hard south charge. Many of the miners are showing evidence that they "might" have bottomed and are getting ready to break out in a series of higher highs and higher lows.....I'm just not convinced yet and won't make the call. I have a solid core of miners and will hold tight. If Iran gets hit you could get a real dump in most markets so be cognizant that this could provide a great chance to get into some great buys on the miners and resources like PAL SWC . I have been very busy and apologize for neglecting this blog. Nothing has changed in my outlook and I expect us to have some great trading this year....NEXT YEAR it will get ugly......best wishes to all of you and I hope you have plans for you and yours. gl




Tuesday, February 14, 2012

WHILE ROME BURNS

And the great casino stays open. What's next? If you listen to the mainstream pundits and your lyin' eyes then I guess we are going to grow our way out of this without anyone addressing a structural unemployment catastrophe and just plugging money into every leaking, monetary orifice in the entire world. Without a constant infusion of freshly minted fiat to maintain the enormous debt service of a bloated deteriorating western world we would already be deep in depression. So how long can it go? As long as the system is able to manipulate the free market and suppress the price of essentials then they can maintain the "extend and pretend" policy of monetizing the collapse. THIS IS A WAR BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING NATIONS AND THE OLD DEVELOPED WORLD. Those with the resources resent that the central bankers are able to print the fiat of the two major currencies (in particular the dollar) that is essentially allowing a free ride for their system to continue an unchecked consumption of the developing world's natural resources.

This has been the game for several centuries. The difference today is that these countries see their resources dwindling. They see the end game. They see there has been a game of attrition that will leave them the odd man out as the game of musical chairs eventually ends and the natural resource nations have no chair. The natural resource nations want their chair in the future and they are learning (in part to the internet) what the real world war is. People like John Perkins have informed many people what our game of new world order is REALLY about. Increasingly a number of these countries AND their citizens are trying to find a way to protect themselves from the central bankers plundering of their wealth with the fiat attack. Holding on the hard assets with the purchasing of enormous reserves of oil, iron, coppergold etc. by the likes of China and India is one way to create reserves outside the fiat realm. This will continue to be the world war that we are fighting in. The central banks trying to run out the clock on the drain of the natural resource wealth of the "developing" nations to feed their parasitic appetite for control of the world. This will ultimately go down in a biblical conflagration even worse than the fires that have burned across the world in Libya, Tunisia, Greece, Egypt, Yemen, Syria, Spain, Iraq, Afghanistan, Italy......these are the sentinel fires.


look at this monthly if you think the daily is overbot

Sunday, February 12, 2012

GREECE SAVED!

after the save this pic of celebration was taken in athens
No problem for the Eurozone the Greek leaders voted to save the Euro by taking austerity measures for their citizens. Someone forgot to tell the Greek people that this was necessary to pay for their binge years and broken promises and that their leaders were only looking out for the best interests of their working stiffs.Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos won parliamentary approval for austerity measures to secure an international bailout after rioters protesting the measures battled police and set fire to buildings in downtown Athens. Passage of the austerity bill puts the spotlight on a meeting of euro-region finance ministers on Feb. 15 that must decide whether to approve the second aid package. Resolution of the negotiations, which started in July, would help contain the threat that speculators will target debt-saddled nations, including Italy and Portugal.  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-12/papademos-wins-sufficient-support-in-parliament-for-greek-austerity-plans.html    Readers of this blog understand that it is necessary to sometimes accept the punishment for your sins and the sins of others if it makes the bankers survive and thrive. As brought to this blogs attention several times in the past ....There can be no economic recovery without the mega-banks and the crony capitalism that made us all great. Of course Greece is burning now and NO ONE knows the eventual outcome!


Having taken my red pills tonight do help in posting this salute to austerity and our banks. Just one slight problem. Paraphrasing a recent Soro's interview line...."So what the hell is next?......because this ain't gonna do nothin' but kick the freakin' can down the road." I believe I penned his quote with some literary license but   I do apologize to him. Of course my usual response must be made before I move on. The road is clear and it is going to be monetization and buying time. Eventually there will be a deflationary massacre...most likely next year if we see nasty stagflation followed by a period of currency devaluation lasting years....eventually removing the bulk of debt through a process of selective currency devaluation. To get through this period without national revolts will most likely produce a massive global war......Greece's violence in the last 12 hours has been massive. It will be interesting to see how they stifle it.




Friday, February 10, 2012

GREEKED!

Of course they are showing you none of what is going on in Greece....so I am....this was yesterday's celebration of the Greeks with the "ultimate" solution. I thought it was appropriate to label it the bank's solution for Greece.......Bend Over and Take It Like a Spartan......Of course the peeps over the pond (us) are being led to believe all is fine in olive land. Sprinkle a little spartan life on the Athenians and all will be well. Don't count on it  Remember Greece is not a large country and when you stick it in their Arses then you may find the hiding is not as easy in some countries. Right now the politicians have a gun at their head. Actually they have several guns at their heads.....The bankers are holding one. The peeps have one and a guillotine in the other. Its not pretty at the Parthenon anymore. Most of you are wondering how long the suppression of the miners can continue? I suggest to you that I don't care and if you want an answer buy a lotto ticket. This game can go on longer than you can imagine. My best guess is we get a ramp up of miners of significant proportions this year with the continued money printing. With the Euro debt meltdown this game is NOT going to end for quite awhile. THEY ARE GOING TO KEEP PRINTING. THIS IS A DISASTER OF HISTORIC PROPORTIONS. But that doesn't mean they can't keep some manipulation in the prices so HOLD ON
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Thursday, February 9, 2012

BE HAPPY!!

The worm is gonna turn.......sometime. For now however we remain in limbo land. For those that want a prediction....I'll stick to only guessing......I will guess that they keep printing money out of thin air.....Ya wanna argue that brave prediction.... I will guess that the Eurocrash continues to be stretched out for many months and probably multi-year before it finally burns itself out.....now that is also a courageous prediction. I will guess that the bears are about to be rewarded with some ugly down days in the next few days that suck in some more shorts for a slaughter on the squeeze from the freshly printed casino money....brave indeed of me indeed.

If you are trading the question should be just how can I make money here? I guess you could flip a coin but you may save yourself a lot of heartache and just enjoy the gift you were given. Hold a core of PM miners and forgettabout it...the weekly and monthly charts say they still have a lot of room to the upside....that may be a few weeks off or it may be a few months but its coming. Otherwise you can just try and trade a small part of your core on the daily and shorter term charts with the intra day moves. It works. If you get trapped....hold on......these games will continue and your miners will shine one day.....Those kids don't have money up above and you don't need it to be happy either. My happiest days were when I had no money in grad school. I lived on a 25c pancake that I put free butter and syrup on in the Hospital cafeteria at 5 am after clubbing at Deja Vu until 1am and discussing the finer points of a brunettes gymnastic ability from Stephen's College for another hour or so. No money.....No food.....No sleep.......but true hapiness.......gl all and never forget what truly brings you happiness.

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

KICK THAT CAN

But monetary policy is not fixing the problem....only preventing the solution from taking place. Lines of unemployed in many areas are becoming less and less as the masses begin to just give up. Of course there are plenty of anecdotal examples of people abusing the system but more and more its becoming clear that the future for the millions of unemployed that truly want jobs is becoming dim.

Of course this doom and gloom is not what you want to hear and it is not what the government wants you to hear. Unfortunately the solution will be found ONLY when the problem is fully admitted and confronted. Therein lies a bit of a problem. The System would then open a massive can of worms. It would have to admit that there had been lies. Yes.....I know...its hard to believe, but there may have been a bit of state sponsored "deception". Truthfully that doesn't sound that bad. Just one little problem. Once you open that can of worms.......its just uncertain how many might crawl out and just what the consequences might be. It would be easy to throw a few Enron patsies to the masses but now you could open a massive tsunami that could expose the very puppet masters themselves eventually. Once that snowball starts to roll it just might create an avalanche.

Bottom line.... to fix the problem requires too much risk to the ponzi......so the solution will continue with the current policy of printing money.....and printing...and printing. Of course this will eventually roll back into the system with inflationary consequences but this could be several years down the road. Between now and then Bernanke has to fight deflation with the printing press and stagflation should be in full force before this year ends. The costs of essentials are about to rip the hearts out of the most vulnerable. This will put more pressure on the government to contain the disenfranchised as they become increasingly angry. Of course they will contain the  outcry. Don't be deluded by your private gun ownership. That will be easily controlled. Guns will ONLY protect you from home invasions. Any posturing against the state will be dealt with easily and swiftly. So forgettaboutit and think about your family instead.

Here are the charts.