Wednesday, January 23, 2013

AAPL TO THE MOON???????

You gotta be kiddin' me.......Sculley!! WHY???
As the dust settles on AAPL earnings announcements the buzz on the Business Media is full of pundits talking about every aspect of the after hours announcement. Some are crying the end.... many are yelling and cajoling to get in on the pullback while you can. One pundit on CNBS made a point that I do pay attention to and that was when he asked in an investment conference how many of the money managers owned AAPL and virtually every hand in the room went up. That tells you more than anything. THAT is NOT a sign of a bottom in AAPL. Investor BEWARE of the World's largest Cap stock. This represents a killing field. This is where only the biggest shark in the pool will be safe. This is where money will go to die over the next two years. AAPL is a great company with great products and without Steve Jobs they are going nowhere but down. Rarely do you encounter and individual of his special attributes. Genius, vision, and the ability to implement his ideas. The fortitude to withstand the onslaught of attacks that are aimed at all people of his success. I still cannot forget how he was ousted by the board and John Sculley took over the reins. Sculley was elevated in the press as the new visionary with impeccable credentials as a CEO (McDonalds) and how getting the mercurial Jobs out was JUST what AAPL needed.

The next few years under the soft spoken, stable hand of Sculley's leadership spoke volumes about corporate America as Apple was driven into the dust. As the company began its death dive they even replaced the smooth operating Sculley with the more flamboyant Gil Amelio. Eventually the board had enough of Job's old hands to gather the votes to bring him back to a failed company for the feat of a corporate lifetime. The rest was history. What's even more ironic underscoring my scorn for our dying country is the fact I had to listen to John Sculley on Bloomberg Radio this morning giving his expert opinion as a regular contributor on a myriad of subjects....INCLUDING Apple! Is that not the most cynical commentary one can possibly imagine in a country in decadence. Ask yourself WHY someone with Sculley's history could have any credibility ESPECIALLY with Apple so dominant in the news and this country SO DESPERATELY needing a new direction to restore CONfidence?

Apple as evidenced by the comment of all hands going up is ALREADY OWNED BY EVERYONE THAT IS GOING TO BUY ITS SHARES. We don't have more buyers now only sellers. Beware playing this stock long......directionally we are headed down......of course there will be violent short squeezes at points but this will be tough to trade long.

Next on  the agenda is the metal market. Without boring those of you that follow this closely we are still needing to shake out players so short term more weakness is possible in the metals and miners but long term I can hold and sleep at night. The miners/short and the bullion/long pair trade is off. That is a positive for the intermediate and long term. I have to agree with the KWN pumpers on the miners. Its the best gamble in the paper market sectors that I can play. Remember its paper and remember its pure danger. If you haven't figured out how to buy bullion yet then you need to just concentrate on the important things in your life like family food and shelter. gl




71 comments:

  1. Speaking of LB, Again......

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-23/assistant-attorney-general-breuer-leave-doj-untouchables-aftermath

    Loose Lips and stuff like that!

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  2. A little fear among money managers will allow some capital to rotate into supporting the bond bubble for a little longer and allow western civilization a few more months/quarters of normalcy and hegemony.

    Looks like big problems bubbling underneath consumerism for lack of physical silver to make the toys which sedate the sheep.

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  3. Problems? We don't have NO problems......

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  4. so goes crapple so goes the market. Too funny Appl stores are full of old folks like me being taught how to use an I this or that. Lately I am impressed by the commercial vanancies..seems like some streets almost all the stores are vacant. Gasoline held down for the corination are drfting back up. 1 percentors hitting the highway out of California. Looking good out there. Welp back to the bunker.

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    1. speaking of problems I missed this one

      http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-23/oldest-bank-world-plunges-halted-chairman-resigns-aftermath-latest-derivatives-fiasc

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  5. Two multi-millionaires I know leaving Cal., one for Idaho the other for Texas. Futures really weak tonight. Yep, read the Jobs biography, apple is toast. But IBM, GooG had good earnings.

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  6. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-24/faber-shiller-%E2%80%9Cyou-keep-your-us-dollars-and-i%E2%80%99ll-keep-my-gold%E2%80%9D

    "Faber, whose advice has protected millions of investors in recent years, warned of a global systemic crisis possibly due to massive size of the global derivatives market which is now worth over an incredible $700 trillion."

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  7. This one is a good summation with plenty of links to follow. Problems, hmmmm I guess that is in the "Eye of the Beholder"......

    http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-01-23/biggest-bubble-history-fraud

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  8. For some reason, Phil Davis remains bullish on AAPL. But, your right, the sharks in the pool are too big for me.

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    Replies
    1. this is a massive pool of liquidity and there are the "biggest" sharks in those waters...so beware

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  9. how about a big outside reversal day today or tomorrow......perfect

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  10. Just for short term traders if GLD closes above 162.1 very bullish

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  11. Cramer is a bash-a-holic on Apple now. What a snake! He acts like he didn't talk it all the way up like everyone else. I know it's popular to hate on Apple right now but they do have a TON of cash. Not sure why they really bother with that weak of a dividend though. If they made it like 4% then we'd be talking.

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  12. To illustrate how the game is played a big hedge pair trade was to long Apple and hedge with short SnP.......ZAP!!!!......cleaned out by the "big boyz" again

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    Replies
    1. Just imagine having been short Netflix and long Apple last yesterday? Ouch ;)

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    2. that WAS also a pair trade that they targeted...DO NOT GET into these crossfires

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    3. Just to think a few months back I was complaining how much March 2013 $585 puts were going for......... If I only picked up just 10 contracts! Wawawa!

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    4. Calls are cheap cheap now but I'm not going to attempt to catch a falling knife, I do that enough with miners haha ;)

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    5. Hehehehe didn't cause my track record with options is pitiful!

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    6. Everyone is calling 420 the interim bottom on Apple....buying a few calls here could be sweet. Just dont get greedy....but YES you are catching a falling knife...but the knife will bounce a couple a times

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    7. I'm probably an idiot but I nibbled... hehe... Like Kli said everybody expects it to touch the 420-430 area with no bounce. They could be right but I dunno... Just in for a quick bounce then i'm outta here.

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    8. Hubz how far out did you go? If ya don't mind me asking...

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    9. April, bought the $450s. The RSI is pretty damn low so a quick pop up could happen for 5-10% soon I think. And I like betting against Cramer ;) I could be dead wrong though!

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    10. Dam their pricy! I'm gonna pass which means your sure to hit, if I did, $400 would be lock....

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    11. We'll see who's luck is worse I guess haha I'm betting on mine ;)

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  13. Just to post, there is a poster in the comment section on Keystone that he believes the S&P is targeting 1510-1520 (3rd wave), then drop to 1470-1480 (4th wave) and then finally 1570-1580 (5th wave). No timeline given.
    Obviously, this is just this individual's opinion.

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  14. speaking of blood in the streets
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-24/racing-revolution-spain-vs-greek-youth-unemployment

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  15. Itms has a $425 low target, just fwiw. Their s-t calls are very accurate altho not 100% of course. I'm not playing. GL everyone.

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  16. painful miner trade. for every up move in miners, it seems to be followed by a lower down move. lower highs and lower lows. hopefully there will be a reverseal at some point. seems like they are going to retest the July lows. I hope I am wrong. good luck everyone.

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  17. look how they are running the stops on AUMN and PAL today.......they want some of your shares bad there..........rough game folks.....get out and into physical if you cant afford to laugh at this

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    Replies
    1. Yes as tempting as leverage is you really can't mess with it. Option wise LEAPS are the only good play. Buying stock on margin is foolish unless you're selling covered calls to cover your ass and even then it's not smart.

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  18. Seems like they have wanted our shares for months now, don't they have enough? hehehe I'm really doubting this trade, I guess that's the objective. Bears are in control. May change at some point. As a side note, I have found at least for myself that bottom fishing doesn't work. Stocks that I have bought closer to their highs have done much better than trying to buy beaten down stocks. Stocks that have been hammered end up for the most part getting hammered some more. Just my observation and opinion. Good luck everyone!

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  19. Highly doubt they let Apple do much at all today. $455 is likely the cap, and $460 definetly is with all the open interest.

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    1. agree and if it doesn't bounce nicely in the next week then prepare for more downside

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    2. Wow they let it break 450 with all that open interest. Very strange, the option sellers rarely lose this large. Something is up!

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  20. dang, another banner day for my miners. just when it seems it can't get uglier, it does. I am in for the long haul, but I am not overly confident at this point. I hope these miners don't get completely broken down like the solars did. best of luck everyone.

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  21. I would have to say they can keep any paper trade in whatever range they choose...........at least for awhile.....if you are not patient GET INTO PHYSICAL........if you aren't "forced" to be in paper get into physical.....and lastly this is for those that can AFFORD to take the hit

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  22. Rude,

    Kli is offering SAGE advice and its far more relaxing..... Just Saying!

    fwiw: my basket of miners is now half a basket, chewing the same grizzle everyone else is......

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    Replies
    1. yes my miners are taking a beating but I refuse to trust this market in other "paper assets" on the other hand just remember your brokerage account CAN rehypothecate your miner's shares if you don't have the certificates

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  23. they r tricky bastards. sometimes my patience has a little anger mixed into it. hehe. I am not worried. whether a trade goes well or bad, it's not the end of the world. life goes on. eventually in time, miners should rise from the ashes. if not, so be it. best of luck everyone

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  24. LOOK AT THAT.....they ran the stops on PAL now green.......outside reversal IF it holds...lets see what happens with others..BRD now green

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  25. Excellent APPL chart. Make it or break time is upon us - http://www.screencast.com/users/springheel_jack/folders/1301/media/a4916ff5-45e6-447b-bb3d-fdf1d9864cd8

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  26. Short squeeze from HELL on Netflix. Unreal stuff, shorts are being wheeled out in body bags YIKES. Call buyers from Tuesday can probably retire in style ;)

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    1. Timing is everything and of course being allowed to play on the inside........

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    2. I am not surprised and knew after the "public" short positions were announced to the sheep the slaughter would ensue quickly once enough loaded up. Neflix is a total scam but as Red has mentioned and I will reiterate again......this is a Supercycle event and we are in the end stages of the Jackals. They will not only tear off the remaining flesh from the carcass but they will eat the bones. Anyone in this game better know they are taking no prisoners

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    3. Only thing paper trading and algos care about is liquidity and volatility. It's like shooting fish in a barrel on both Apple and Netflix at the moment.

      Emptied the last non-ira brokerage account except for 3 cents, let them margin with someone else's money. Don't know which top they will pick before slaughtering all the fatten sheep.

      As for miners, no heavily margined overleveraged sheep to r@pe.

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  27. http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=216610

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  28. kli,

    your commentary is classic. "they will not only tear off the remaining flesh from the carcass, but will eat the bones". hehe. I know I shouldn't laugh, because I will probably be the bones. but what the heck, it's Friday. hehe

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  29. Let's think about this: They were not gonna let the markets fall or the PMs rise during Davos week. PMs decoupling from the markets, but in the wrong direction for us. Keeping leverage out of the miners really doesn't help their cause. Nasty weather here; we're not outta the 20s today, very unusual even for Jan. But the Repubs are here to liven things up!

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  30. They of course will have their own timing on the miners and before they take them up "substantially" (which brings in its own form of momo tsunami) they want as many weak leaves out as possible. This game is simple....its to get as many shares as cheaply as possible....before the ride up

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  31. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/KWN_DailyWeb.html

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  32. Tom - Thanks for posting that Denninger article...I missed it and think it is exactly spot on. We need to prepare in order NOT to be the bones.

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  33. http://traderdannorcini.blogspot.com/2013/01/technical-failure-continues-to-haunt.html

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  34. Hahaha what the hell, check out the closing action in Apple.

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  35. Hubz: you gotta see this. Check out the candlestick on the APPL close... Apparently it all went down in the last 10 seconds of trading....


    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BBe97N6CUAAcGgu.jpg:large

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    1. Had to be a major margin call of some sort... somebody's fund blew up ;)

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  36. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/1/25_3_Incredibly_Key_Charts_For_Battered_Gold_%26_Silver_Bulls.html

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  37. Hello everyone,

    Just wanted to share a bit of intel from the street on physical gold and silver. I went down to my local coin dealer to pick up some 90 percent coins and a bit of gold. It is a legit operation in Raleigh, NC, no pawn shop bullshit. The owner was in operation during the years of the Bunker brothers debacle and knows the market better than most. I like to pick up my physical silver in 50 cent pieces. It is the greatest denomination you can purchase without paying the larger premium of purchasing silver dollars (Morgan, Liberty, Peace, etc.)

    I cleaned him out of fifty cents pieces ($700 worth, not big money at all). He had to finish the order in quarters. He said no one was selling anything and that he had more buyers than ever, even during the last beat down. His son runs the business with him and was down in Florida trying to buy silver to bring back. They had both been trying, unsuccessfully, to get some 2013 Silver Eagles. Some of you may not know the year's issue has completely sold out.

    We spoke of the economy, and I wanted to pick his brain about buying bullion in the light of all the money printing. We were on the same page about pretty much everything, i.e., DON"T WAIT. He said that gold and silver bullion could easily go the way of the AR!5 rifle in a panic. Gun stores everywhere are empty of all desirable guns and ammo in the gun control panic. It didn't take long either. But how many local, honest coin shops are in your area versus gun dealers? He said he could sell out of everything in a single day.

    The single most important thing he said was that I had left out one important factor in my equation. I was all ears. He said "I'm not going to sell all the gold and silver I have. I'll close the store long before that. I will already have a pile of money that might be rapidly depreciating. I will decide when the store closes and it won't be because I am out of gold or silver." All of the gold and silver dealers will know their market better than most of us combined. Just because you had a conversation with your local guy and said you woudl be back soon doesn't mean that the doors will be open. These guys will all get the jump on us as to when to hunker down with THEIR physical positions. Whatever you have in the safe at that point could be it.

    DON"T WAIT. BUY NOW.

    Good luck everyone.

    Wilks

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    1. great info from "on the ground"......and final paragraph is key

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    2. Thanks Kli. Just trying to get the word out. It isn't as exciting as all of the trading hoopla but is probably what many of the folks on this forum should be doing instead of trying to dance in the meat grinder ;).

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  38. Time tested sheep shearing for applelonians. What could possibly go wrong with Apple??? Who would have thought short apple and long netflix..Somebody did and quite sucessfully.

    The on air food fight between Icahn and Ackerman sent chills up my spine. This is what we are dealing with folks. Like Klis has said shark infested waters.

    We can be right in our thoughts through study and be wrong very wrong on paper.

    Fuck them all. I do not believe in the end this stradegy of controlled markets will work. In order to keep the charade going everyday the PTB must conquer more ground to control....

    Back to the bunker.

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  39. Jim Sinclair

    Fundamentally we are approaching the period in gold when it will move up the most points in the shortest period of time. The paper gold market is being used to shake the bullish tree harder this time than any time before because of what is to come. Fear is the most powerful emotion in markets and it is being used perfectly to enrich the grand names of finance at your expense.

    Remember how you felt during the first reaction above $1000? This is nothing different. The take downs are planned for times when the market is least liquid either inter day or inter market. This is not liquidation, it is price movement only. I used to do this for a living. I don’t think, but rather I know.

    Clearly the gold banks will try to get gold into a capitulation point. Hear me: We are right in front of that time when the market performs a classic bottom both in shares and physical. From this point gold is going to and through $3500. That is why what happened today is happening in the first place.

    If you are unable to buy at this time there is one thing you can do. There is one way to get into the fight and out of the stands. That act is do nothing, and do not capitulate. Let them play the price game, but give them nothing whatsoever of yours.


    this is what I will do....I buy at the open SSRI..... 12.27

    my last buy was at 10.50

    at this point I have no other place to go

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  40. hay all..

    had the flu this past week or so....god help you if you get it..

    do you use Ever Bank to open over sea CDs

    in the post they were paying 15% Iceland cds

    LOL....LOL....LOL

    Chuck Butler runs the trade

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  41. Here's 50 questions to ask those you are trying to get to listen.....

    http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/50-shocking-questions-that-you-should-ask-to-anyone-that-is-not-a-prepper-yet

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  42. let this be a warning shot

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-25/guest-post-gold-guarantee-blowing-singapore

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  43. http://www.jsmineset.com/2013/01/25/defend-yourself-by-not-giving-in-day-2/

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  44. Fattening up the Sheep....

    http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/26/business/daily-stock-market-activity.html?_r=0

    LOL, this is to funny to take serious but sad part is many WILL!!!!

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  45. Listed below are several of the arguments that have been used by misguided people to try and justify illegal immigration. Next to each is the reason why that argument has no merit.
    1) They are an economic necessity - Not true. The idea that a bunch of desperately poor, uneducated, unskilled, non-English speaking foreigners are an economic necessity is ludicrous. In fact, when you compare cost vs. benefit, it is obvious that they are not only NOT a necessity, they are not even an asset. Rather, they are a liability and a huge one at that.
    2) They do work Americans won’t do - Not true. They do work Americans won’t do for $7 an hour (especially if Americans can collect welfare and unemployment instead). Of course, if you got rid of the illegals, the jobs wouldn’t pay $7 an hour. The people who wanted the work done would have to pay a wage that was attractive enough to get Americans to do the work. And it might even be enough to get Americans off the unemployment and welfare dole and back into the taxpaying workforce!
    3) We benefit from all that “cheap” labor - This is nonsense. The only people who benefit from the cheap labor are the unscrupulous people who hire illegal immigrants. Taxpayers are left holding the bag. Ultimately, it is they who must pay to support all the Americans who have been put out of work by illegals and must also provide billions of dollars in services and benefits to the illegals themselves.
    4) They are just trying to make better lives - Aren’t we all? The difference is that most of us understand that we DO NOT have a right to acquire by illegal means those things that we find difficult to acquire by legal means. And we certainly don’t have the right to do it in a foreign country.
    5) It is impossible to round up and deport the illegals - We don’t have to. All we have to do is remove the incentives that brought them here in the first place. No jobs. No housing. No taxpayer financed services or benefits (including education). Once we remove the incentives that brought them here, they will leave on their own.
    6) Immigration control is racist / xenophobic - This is just another play of the race card by people who have no other cards to play. Immigration control is the world-wide status quo. There is nothing racist about it. Furthermore, the USA welcomes LEGAL immigrants of all races and ethnicities from all over the world who have gone through the legal immigration process. This is not just a bad argument, it is an attempt to create racial hatred and division.
    7) We are a nation of immigrants - This is the “BIG LIE”. The vast majority of Americans are native-born. I am not an immigrant. Nor were my parents. Nor were my grandparents. We are a nation that has, historically, allowed and even encouraged LEGAL immigration. And we continue to do so. The issue at hand is illegal immigration, which has nothing to do with legal immigration.
    8) They are people. We must treat them humanely - Yes & yes. But lets not pretend like they are victims who were dragged here kicking and screaming against their will. Nothing could be further from the truth. They came of their own free will and for their own benefit and they broke the law to do it. People should not be rewarded for breaking laws and committing crimes. Sending them home is the right thing to do. There is nothing “draconian” or “mean-spirited” about it.
    9) It is wrong to break up families- Yes. Unfortunately, families are often broken up by criminal activity. If you don’t believe it, just drop by any prison or jail on visiting day. We can’t keep families together if some family members choose to participate in criminal activity.
    10) They work & contribute to our society - So do I. And if I break the law and commit crimes, I can expect to pay a penalty of some kind. Anything from a small fine to the death penalty. I do not receive a reward. Why should we treat foreign criminals better than our own citizens?

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  46. The battle at the border was lost a long time ago. Both parties turned a blind eye. I have pounded the table on this for the last 15 years. NAFTA to. We all got sold down the river Locally where I live there is 2 societies living within on the same land. Maybe more. You have native whites, The illegals, the gov ment workers. Rules are different for each. All you can do is build a bunker and know your place. Do not buy useless crap made in china from walmart. never pay for a new phone. do not buy a new car. never lease a car. Grow your own food and stuff. In short become a member of the other society that coe-exists...the drop out bunker dwellers.


    Welp Chuck, just reviewed the EITC rules. Typical family with 3 kids and an AGI of under 50K will get a $5800 subsidy. Just about every hispanic house will get this. To be fair a lot of households will get this. UI is earned income. So much money goes out..staggering.

    Back to the bunker.

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