Monday, January 14, 2013

CRISIS? WHAT CRISIS?


Many of you that are still left in the game think that random events still play a major role within the economic casino labelled the "market". You don't even trust what your lyin' eyes are telling you. Deep down inside there is a nagging doubt within you that "natural" market forces have any bearing on the market any longer. You feel that monetization or "printing money" has the potential to turn a functional market into a dysfunctional market in perpetuity.....that an infinite supply of fiat CAN and HAS been able to defy what your lyin' eyes tell you. You read and see the riots in major developed nations like Spain and Italy and Greece and Portugal and you read the statistics that over 50% youth unemployment exists in these countries and overall unemployment is hovering around 25% and you turn around and forget about its implication as the EURO strengthens and another Euro bond buying stick save is implemented and the story exits the Main Stream Media. Of course your assumption is these bandaids are having a positive effect on their economies and that albeit it may be small, its at least baby steps in the right direction. Therefore this policy is indeed working.

So imagine that a burdensome debt that initiated the crisis was just "fixed" by adding more debt. THAT is where the problem should become glaringly apparent. EACH one of these "Crisis Solutions" is being followed closer and closer by further crisis'. Using the headline numbers of equity markets and Precious Metals to show at least "improvement" with this strategy seems to be working. Its as if there is gradual stepwise improvement being made. Intricately woven between these performance markers is what's left of the Shadow banking system using its alliance with the Central Banks and their never sleeping Algobots to keep the illusion going. BUT.....the Crisis are accelerating and intensifying. While we try to kick the can down the road as a strategy.....the real game is being played behind the scenes by the boyz and that game is preparing for the reset. Accumulation of assets and currency reserve adjustments are being finished as the can is slowly rolling to a stop. You can hope as many of us do that the can keeps getting kicked and "something" is developed that repairs and "fixes" the debt/insolvency math. The cliche..."hope is not a strategy" should ring true to you. As soon as you get out of the meat grinder called the PM trade, you're gone......bottom line....is that you??  CONfidence.....gl   Words of wisdom from yesterday's comments.... Getting out of the casino with some of your chips when the music stops will be the challenge. It could be closing options, stocks, money market accounts, cashing in bonds or IRAs. Have what you need to survive out already. The rest you have to consider as potentially impaired for a few years of forever.

The few US Treasuries I still have left may not get "cashed out" but you play the ponies.

Still hoping for a final beat down on physical silver to get a few hundred US eagles.

22 comments:

  1. and so it begins

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-14/it-begins-bundesbank-commence-repatriating-gold-new-york-fed

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    1. Indeed it does, this one will be worth watching.......

      btw: for the "If you find something, for pete's sake don't say something" file! hehehehe

      http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2103972/Spain-sending-military-planes-retrieve-treasure-shipwreck.html

      That's gotta hurt! Guess in a odd way Spain s sorta doing the same thing....

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  2. For comments only. There is very little German Gold. Most physical gold in quantity in Central Bank Vaults has been leased. Germans will be given some initially but only to "kick the can" (sound familiar?).....We won't get the super spike with the news Germany is reclaiming its gold. The trade remains under CB control with the accumulation of physical gold as the factor driving the price. We are still in early Phase 2 so there will be volatility ahead with sharp pullbacks that are to be bought......imo

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  3. ARNA is a beast unleashed....30 by december or before....I hope everyone accumulated....just saying...let it ride.....

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    1. Do you think the $30 is contingent upon them obtaining European approval or are you focusing solely at the technical picture? Thanks.

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    2. you've been all over this beast chuck congrats

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    3. Thanks Kli, I hope everyone is in and making change...
      Silver King, I'm basing it on technical, milestone payments and really the drug itself..Europe will be great news...but once they open up the scripts (march) and patients can get the drug at wal mart it will really put the supercharger in action...their competitor is an just a phen fen remix..too many issues for Doctors to worry about...and you have to get script online....Plus buy out rumors are flying at higher than 30....it will be a multi billion dollar revenue stream....

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    4. Amazing chart, man I was really hoping for one last beat down but did not get it. Option Premiums are flying! I may just bite the bullet and pay them.

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    5. Alright I'm in... bought some JAN 14 $10 calls for $3 a piece. Pricey but feel safe and LOTS of time.

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    6. Hubz, don't those expire this week? what about out of the money calls in this Summer or fall? wouldn't that work better...not a big option player so just asking..my thinking is they will 2nd qtr earnings out and it might just blow away estimates..

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    7. Yeah 2014 calls sorry! Haha no way I would gamble on weeklies unless it was just a few hundred bucks :)

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  4. Also scaling into ISR down here...expecting some good news on earnings...it's backtesting 50sma today..

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  5. Doc,
    Sold half of my NKTR...
    Someone bought 1mill shares of DCTH today...

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  6. Speaking of heating up the miners are starting to boil

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  7. 70% move in less than a month.......

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PAL&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12175431835&a=257509115&listNum=1

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    1. Saw that, was sitting on my hands though...DJTransports just hit all time high or damn near it...on declining volume...

      I don't remember if it was you or Palmer who ment'd CRIS...I'm thinking of scaling in here...they diluted in December so no fear there....and skin cancer is breaking out big time...random thoughts

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    2. palmer......he was into the biotechs bigtime.....

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  8. Honest,

    My NKTR shares were called away. I made some money, but over all, I feel I made the wrong decision.
    So, I have cash & looking for some opportunities.
    SVM having a good day.

    Note: I think Hubz is referring to Jan 2014 calls, not 2013.

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    1. SVM now hitting the afterburners....bout time

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    2. Thanks Doc...Hubz was on the 2014 calls..bad eyesight...

      Grandfathers funeral today..even has a book about his family Clan called "We are the Mulvaneys" Good read...had a love of nature, big hunter-fisherman, had a cabin in Utah that we went up to every summer and caught big trout, he holds or once held state record for largest mountain lion..One day I was fishing a stream near his cabin and caught 5 trout over 23 inches...great times...great storyteller..an original..claimed he saw a UFO while hunting pheasant in back country..the nearest town had 200 people....if you ever want to see some pretty country, go thru Circleville, Antimony, Beaver county Utah...big muleys....

      this is last post today..good trading to all..need to reflect on the little things he showed me....cheers...

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    3. thnx chuck and a deserved rest gl

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