Wednesday, February 6, 2013

BOTTOM FISHING


Why aren't they biting?
Its a little late for this post, but I want those of you still in the Precious Metals trade to be aware that without a confirmed breakout in the miners space that investing here from a purely trading perspective is indeed Bottom Fishing. Call me guilty of bottom fishing. Of course one can accurately describe this as a broken trade at this point and maybe exiting it is the right call. In this case I will have to disagree. I cannot from an "EQUITY" standpoint recommend what I feel at this point is a better trade to be in......IF YOU AREN'T LEVERAGED....If you are then you could still be caught in their trap short term. Most of my miner charts appear to be nearing a make or break point. PAL has even broken to the upside as has platinum. I subscribe to Droke and he also cannot make a long call on the miners from an intermediate trade perspective. KWN has been bottom calling for over two years. So where do I think we are? My timeline is two months. During the next two months I expect to see a hard break up. What fascinates me is to look at it from their standpoint and I actually see a very serious beatdown possible on the charts before they take it up. This is presented as a distinct possibility before they take it up. It would demoralize many weak hands barely hanging on. That would be devious and just what they could do. Its their casino. If we get a paper price beatdown I cannot see it lasting long...probably less than a weeks. There are too many serious bullion buyers now and they ARE taking possession. So if you are like me and have held some fiat for bullion buys on one last Takedown then you had better be quick and begin buying at the mid 1500s on gold and 29 level on silver. Average down.

For some of you that follow ZH and many of the informed sites it appears there is a desperation that is accelerating. If you are sitting still watching, then you're gonna get RAN OVER. Just like the below picture of the food riot in Greece today. They were passing out free fruit and vegetables and a person was trampled to death. Nooo...this is all just business as usual......move along now.
Greeks begging for food today

I wonder how many had their trust in the "system". It would be there to "take care of them". Even though they knew it was loaded with corruption. Sound familiar.Everything they were promised is now gone. Is it going to get better now? Is the system fixed.........once again......for the 15th time??? Is it???  Is it fixed here too with debt now being piled onto debt. Are you really that gullible........are you??? This is all a game. One with incredible consequences for many of us that make this the fight of our lives. Good luck if you think it ends well.





18 comments:

  1. I'm holding but not adding, and far prefer physical at this point.

    Expropriation is going to be very tempting for bankrupt governments.

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  2. That is sooo sad. Virginia now closer to issuing its own currency...this seems particularly ironic since D.C. is in Virginia: http://dailycaller.com/2013/02/06/virginia-moves-close-to-creating-states-own-currency/ Yep, move along nothing to see here.

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  3. Somehow I missed this back in February: http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/03/pf/states_currencies/index.htm I love the comments by the Vanderbilt finance professor at the end. Somehow his confidence didn't reach Virgina.

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  4. With all due respect, I must question the wisdom of staying with a broken trade, as you accurately call it in your first paragraph.

    The miner trade has been one of the worst, possibly the worst place to be in the last 3 years. Meanwhile, there's been a huge move in the markets. Plenty of money to be made in tech, financials, energy, and so on. So, why stay with a losing trade that has given us nothing but headache, instead of taking what the market gives us?

    I made the mistake of staying with this trade a bit too long, but then realized my mistake, got out with a loss, and made the money elsewhere. In my humble opinion, these miners are going nowhere but down. I cannot see any scenario in which there'll be a major rally from current levels where one's positions will grow 2 or 3 fold. And there continues to be much better places in the market today to make money than mostly these POS miners making lower highs and lower lows all the time. I'm surprised people here continue to stay with this trade.

    To your credit, Kli, on more than one occasion, you have told people to get out of this trade if they can't handle the heat. But then at the same time, you continue to promote it, so I'm confused. It's best, I think, to completely abandon the paper trade. Even if you invested $10K and it's now down to $5K, isn't it better to at least salvage what's left instead of watching it go to zero?

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    1. Good question and I will not disagree. I only give you my assessment that it is a trade they are destroying. Most of my miners bottomed mid last year and most are well off the lows of last year. I always have believed that this is a trade that is in the crosshairs strategically of the PTB....and as Joe would say they are going to destroy it. I will also say that if I didn't have to be in the paper market with 40lKs I would be in bullion only. I encourage anyone in the paper market that can to exit into bullion. If you believe cash is better than bullion then may God be with you....you have no idea what is coming. Next.....I have been a very short/day/swing trader for years....not so much here for a reason. These guys are diabolical and one way they may play this is to just take this right up like they did last summer without a pullback. Many of my miners were up 70% or more in just a couple of months last year some doubled.....NO one could get on the trade on pullbacks. They will create the most damage possible. I sleep very well not trading here. They may take it much lower. If you want to be in cash and believe you can catch the perfect bottom I certainly have no problem with you trying. I'll sit tight and let them play. I have had people tell me personally that they hate this trade and as soon as they're green...they're out.....I just smile.....gl bud and very reasonable question.....hope my answer makes some kind of sense

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  5. You mean stuff like this......

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-06/guest-post-all-well

    Ummmm hum, Yeah it ain't looking to good!




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  6. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/2/7_Exit_From_Massive_Silver_Base_Projects_Staggering_1%2C020_Move.html

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  7. There are several prominent writers that have warned about the mining stocks. Namely, Hugh Hendry, Jim Willie, and Andy Hoffman have all advised bullion instead of the mining stocks. Kli has warned us as well. So, if you read from multiple sources, the difficulty with these mining stocks should not come as a suprise. My own opinion is that the boyz at some point will rip these higher. I try to stick with dividend payers, so at least I am getting something to wait.
    But, I agree with Budfox too,...there are other stocks out there.
    I'm still watching LDK for another purchase. I think it may be setting up for another run soon.

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  8. AUMN has bottomed........hehehhehhe

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  9. This market is looking very toppy, everyone is making the 1575 call so that is going to happen. Looks like this thing wants to go down now. Yes the miner trade is broken and will probably continue to fall. But Gold and silver will go up, alot and it will take the miners with them. I have to be in paper so this is where I am parking my money. I seriously doubt that if this trade works out that I will be allowed to keep any of that money anyway. But that is for another discussion. I have been slowly diverting moving money from my 401k to cash or PMs. I buy at every pull back. I have been doing that since 2006. That has worked out for me! Natural law will eventually take over and dollars will not be once they once were. Only my opinion, take it for what it is worth. Kli, thanks for keeping the blog going so I can have somewhere to go to avoid the "noise!" Much appreciated!

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  10. Wow! The volatility, but most of my miners are currently green. Man, as you've said over & over, they are GOOD. (As soon as I post this, watch the fall).

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    1. watch what the boyz are doing to the shorts left in AUMN...... AUMN is owned by the boyz.....hehehhehehe....they shorted they got out now they are going to BBQ the rest

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  11. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PAL&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12175431835&a=257509115&listNum=1

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  12. bottom fishers in the paper gold market once again thwarted with the key price target for the bulls of 1682 holding......hehehehehe......snore

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  13. Our investment advisors came to my workplace today to talk. Told us moving assets around was a mistake and to just keep on holding on as look as the performance of the stock market in the past 4 years. Hahah I wanted so badly to blurt out "Yeah just think we're about where we were 10 years ago with inflation surging, awesome!" Of course no mention of gold/silver...

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  14. will have a most interesting trading post up tonight on miners thanx to Bud's comment...I did some checking...and it was most enlightening.

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  15. Looking forward to that...just could be on the cusp of the breakout...their objective is to wear us down.

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