Thursday, February 7, 2013

LOWER HIGHS AND LOWER LOWS?

Wow...maybe these aren't total pigs ... I wonder when Budfox puked up his shares
Unfortunately I had not read the Budfox comment closely and let something very important slip by in responding. This was probably Freudian on my part since involving you in the paper trade is tantamount to pulling you into the Devil's lair. Yet even I was surprised by some of the numbers. I've mentioned a number of times that I believed the miners bottomed last year and that for many the bottom was in May, so I went back to check and I was partially right, but the time frames were not quite accurate, reflecting what I believe was to conceal the accumulation of the miners through the different indices. You decide yourself if we have had a broken trade confirmed by a series of lower highs and lower lows since last year. Here are over half the miners I own except SLW and I do not own it in my account. I did not cherry pick these. These are for the most part my largest holdings and I got tired of the math. If you think I cherry picked the Math I could have chosen the 2009 bottom.....I chose last years bottom because I still think that may have been it and have said so many times. I could be wrong.

First SLW It bottomed in May last year at about 23 and rose to 41 in just a few months for a 78% gain then has pulled back today at 37 STILL a 60% gain from last May......hardly a lower low from last year.

Next PAAS another large silver miner. It bottomed last July at 13.5 and rose to 22.5 in just two months for a 66% gain then pulled back and today trades at 17.7 which is still a gain of 31% off of its low last July. not too bad.

PPP this is unfair of course....what a monster ....It bottomed in March of last year at 2.2 and then rose to 8 in October for a 263% gain and today rests at 6.31 which is still 186% above its bottom last year....

Next AUQ it bottomed in September last year at 5.3 and rose in just two months 62% to 8.5 and now is resting at 7.2 STILL a 37% gain off of last year's low....not bad. Certainly not a lower low.

AAU take a look at that low in August....1.5 on the tail then peak in December at 3.3 for a 120% gain. Today its at 2.6 ...a 73% gain from its low last year. I'm seeing a pattern.

AG oh my! It bottomed last year at 12.2 and rose to 24 last year for a 96% gain and now rests at 18.5 for a 51% gain off its bottom from last year.....maybe this trade wasn't so bad

AUMN  Short and sweet its at its bottom from May a year ago......not a lower low.........yet.

HL this one almost cost a friend a lot of money......it didn't cost me anything....yet. It bottomed at 3.5 last year and rose almost 100% to 6.9 and now sets at 5.5 still 57% off of last years low.....NOT a lower low by any stretch of the imagination

BRD bottomed last year at 0.67 and rose to 1.08 for a nice 61% move NOT too bad Budfox if you got out at the top but guess what ...Its at .90 which is still up 35% from its bottom of less than a year ago.......

I think the point is made. Do your own DD but I think this game is far from over and can they crush this trade further? YES YES and YES.....but we still have a very interesting game to play......gl


Bite The Emotional Restraint Bullet

My Dear Friends,
The pressure on gold is not permanent in any sense. This decline is, as I have told you, similar to the series of declines just before gold took off in the 70s from $400 to $887.50. Those declines then were for the purpose of the last great shake of the gold apple tree prior to the move that gained the most distance over the least amount of time.
My birthday is March 27th. By that time this decline in gold will be old history. This decline is purely to take your positions away from you, certainly in shares which today trade at historic discounts to their assets.
I can only suggest to you as strongly as possible that you need to defend yourself by doing absolutely nothing. This way you can get into the fight and prevent the shorts from taking their profits that are soon to become losses.
The biggest profits the shorts have is in your shares. As long as your company is performing well on the ground do not let the shorts have any joy. This may be the last time before gold trades in excess of $3500 that you need bite the bullet of emotional restraint.








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58 comments:

  1. I purposely left PAL off ..it bottomed a month ago and bounced 90% off its low......in a month! It also broke out with big volume over its down trend......

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  2. hey all & Kil

    I have 2 stocks.....SLW & SSRI

    I bought SLW at 27.......LOL...cash on the table

    SSRI I bought at 10.50 and bought more at 11.80 to 12.00


    where is there to park $$$$.......priceline.com....LOL......apple...LOL

    Martin Armstrong

    The number one rising concern in Japan is national security. This is what is forcing capital to leave and to invest in the ONLY place capable of absorbing huge amounts of money – USA

    he also says the Euro will move to the USA

    USA dollar up.....gold down....

    looks like 1987 all over again....LOL

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  3. Jon Stewart on drones

    http://www.bing.com/videos/watch/video/wed-feb-6-2013/17wwqfyxc

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  4. Awesome work Kli...I have held thru thick and thin so didn't buy at the bottom except some PPP. Holding slw for over 3 yrs, still over 250%...Re: Martin Armstrong, he uses incredible computer models but I wonder whether gold can go up v. euro & yen, etc. but down ag. dollar? Looking at autm w/great interest.

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    1. Just received Drokes bi weekly trading letter and he still recommends not buying miners BUT.....he feels we are very close to the bottom and cited Bud Kress's cycle advice. Kress believes that this is approaching the lift off for gold again VERY close if not there.....we will look back on this and have all the answers.....right now you have to use your best judgement....I'll hold...not too difficult as Paladin noted above ......if youre in paper WHERE ELSE

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  5. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/2/8_Mobius_-_Money_Printing_Ensures_Continued_Demand_For_Gold.html

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  6. I think for anyone who was lucky enough to catch the bottom on these miners and then get out at the top with perfect timing, they are sitting pretty (that's true for any stock). But it must be very rare to pull that off unless you have a crystal ball.

    Also, part of the problem is that I appear to have picked the bottom of the barrel POS miners (SSRI, EXK, SVM) at the wrong time (accumulation began in late 2010 and continued thru 2011 as I averaged down). Of course, I never sold the occasional rallies that we had, hoping that the big turnaround was just a few weeks away. It never happened, and my positions were down 35-50%, which would've required these miners to go up 70-100% just to break even. I decided to bail by the middle of 2012, took the losses, and then luckily, made most of the money back by just riding the general market rally thru 2012.

    In fact, hindsight being 20/20, I should've just bought a couple of index funds in 2009 and would've more than doubled my money by now.

    I just sleep better being out of this trade. For all we know, the PTB can privatize or nationalize them for pennies on the dollar, and I didn't want to be left holding the bag.

    As for where else to park money, nothing wrong with some good old cash right now. USD is like the best house in a really bad neighborhood, and it's good to have some dry powder. If the markets get creamed, the miners will go down with it, along with everything else.

    Being almost 50% cash, what about the other 50%? Well, there are good, solid companies out there. Union Pacific, Ebay, Royal Dutch Shell, General Dynamics, Verizon, Mosaic, Marathon Petroleum, all very good places to park some money. I'm not putting anything in at these levels, but all are on my watch list. If we get a correction, that's where I'm going. I'm also using about 20% of the portfolio to follow the lazy model, with just 3-4 index funds, and just let it ride.

    If the SHFT, our accounts confiscated, and the USD worthless, then it really doesn't matter what anyone is holding. That's where my preps will hopefully get me thru to the other side. But I'm also not discounting the possibility that there won't be any major SHTF event, but rather, a slow, downward grind that lasts years/decades, where we continue top lose our freedoms, liberties, purchasing power, overall standard of living, etc.

    I thought about buying bullion, but is that really safe? First, I don't have a safe place to store it, second, what if, with gold at $5000, there's an executive order that slaps it with a 90% capital gains tax? Now you are stuck with 5 or 10-fold gains that can't collect on.

    Wow, this whole clusterf*ck is making my head hurt!

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    1. Good thoughts...just don't caught up in the hype on "good companies" we're heading into the K winter and even good companies can become decimated. Cash is good right here but it has some risk also. Remember....Ben does NOT want you in cash so you're violating your premise of frontrunning the Fed. I share your headache with this....I probably have a different financial position than you which allows me to rest easily on the miners whipsawing......that also reinforces my belief that they are just shaking as many out of this trade as possible before the next move up. Hating this trade may be emotion or it may be warranted but I have 7 figs in it so I cannot afford emotion....If you have NO bullion in your possession then I would have to ask why.....obviously the answer is your own....but really...NO bullion? gl budfox

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    2. BTW Bud ...I do not think one should be short term trading the miners here.....the big money is accumulating. I'm not good enough to trade my position like I did through early 2012....now I am holding through whatever they throw at me....picking the very bottom or the very top of whatever timeline you choose is not my game here....

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  7. I listened to Martin Armstrong's speech given at the "Bangkok Rotary Club" on 2/7/13. You can find it on the "Silver for the People" site, but you have to click to older entries to find it.
    Basically, he felt that investing in US Blue Chip dividend paying companies would be fine as a longer term play. Bonds are out. He didn't really say anything about the PM's or miners.

    I am not sure if the governments would stick a heavy capital gains tax on physical gold/silver. If they do, the PM's would find their way into the black market. It is the rich people that are buying gold, and the rich people can have their way with the politicians. For all you know, the politicians themselves are buying gold. So, maybe no heavy taxation or some type of amnesty program would come about in which gold/silver could be exchanged.

    Started snowing pretty heavy up here at 6:30 am, but stopped now. The weather/storm is on the news constantly here. Inappropriate storm pumping?? Guess we will find out.

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    1. 80% of Americans have very little disposable income and the ones that can are paring down debt with their cash....They have NO gold and very few have silver. The group that is above them are starting to buy some silver but they cannot afford gold until your get into the income group over 250K......they can buy a little gold and a few are....The group that is buying significant gold are in the 1% and to be more accurate in the .1%.......they are diversifying into gold in large amounts. The real test of the system will come when the people and funds that "think" they own physical realize they've been "had".....and yes...that day is very close

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    2. Also when the likes of Bill Gross, Jean Marie Evillard, Egon Von Greyerz, Kyle Bass, Jim Rogers, Mark Faber, Michael Pento RAY FKN DALIO and Many others that are not "gold bugs"....say you have to own gold....I think you had better listen......so its not me that anyone should listen to....I only provide this forum for you and I to sound off on.......but ignoring these VERY loud voices does not bode well.

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  8. Best thoughts to those in the NE again...daughter & family there and son at a conference trying to get out, flight cancelled so taking a train to Baltimore, then flying to Atlanta. I think of the physical to be used for bartering more than anything else. US $ rally due to more euro problems (but that could be s-t according to Axel Merk) and yen. I do agree with Bud's scenario where we may very well grind down for many years if they are able to hold it together. Truly don't think the ptb in U.S. want a sudden fall, but when I see their complete lack of interest in helping the peeps doubt their intent (or more accurately the intent of the puppet masters). Everyone stay warm & safe.

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    1. silver for barter ......gold for a store of wealth......gold is the money of kings but silver bullion provides you an added chance for getting through a SHTF scenario. If you are more optimistic that we won't get into a SHTF scenario then silver will provide you a compelling gain over gold percentage wise. Silver should outperform gold by a mile....but once again its your timeframe

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  9. Just read that CME has reduced margin requirements on gold, silver, copper and platinum futures as of 2/13. This could be the takedown b/4 that kicks in.

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    1. Very possible but just remember the last time they let the metals run. They need to get the margins down before they take them up. THEN they can raise margins to slow the ascent or even try to reverse it.......this time I believe they only get short term pullbacks..they probably are well aware of that too.

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    2. This game will end only when the physical dries up. Until then, the game will go on.

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  10. Well since you brought it up Sis there are still some raw nerves up here! Yesterday late afternoon I received an emergency alert on the stupid phone issuing the blizzard warning and to prepare! I'm not so sure that was a good idea, about an hour or so after that driving home noticed gas lines again, ten or twelve deep and forget about parking in the grocery store. Just looks like this will be a basic Nor Easter with snow and that does happen in the winter, snow that is. Went out this morning and a few local gas stations were out! This panicking the masses is really stupid, done by design but stupid.

    As for the miners I bought in too soon and well you know the rest of the story. GPL'ed when I should have PPP'ed Grrrr, I didn't avg down which would have been the smart play but I decided it would be prudent to make a shift in my investment strategy.....

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  11. MUST READ a paragraph from Bloomberg article
    The EU may suffer the fate of the USSR and “collapse” according to billionaire investor George Soros.

    Soros said that incorrent economic and monetary policies and the monetary union itself may lead to currency wars and the collapse of the European Union.

    In saving the euro, the continent’s financial powers have damaged the economy of the euro zone and created dangerous new political imbalances. As a result, “we have quite a turbulent time ahead for 2013.”

    “I am rather concerned that the euro is in danger of destroying the European Union”. There is a real threat when the possible resolution of financial difficulties of eurozone might cause a political issue,” Soros told Dutch TV in an interview.

    The attempts of the European leadership to keep the common European currency are leading to the escalation of political and social issues in the EU which may eventually destroy it.

    Recent SEC filings show that Soros’ hedge fund had again increased allocations to gold.

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  12. Guys--had a disagreement yesterday about aumn...the other side of the argument said their not having debt is not a good thing since they would have to issue/dilute shares to raise cash. Thoughts?

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    1. I'm not sure about that logic.....but look at the major holders

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  13. gold, silver, paper, land. I like land - can't eat the other 3 or raise food with them. Besides - the value of land moves slowly so you do not try to trade it and often can only guess as to its real value.

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    1. I own commercial property and raw land. Be aware there are carrying costs to all of these including property taxes utilities etc. As governments become more desperate they will turn to any source of revenue "enhancement". But land does have counterparty risks..... I like good farmland but its very highly priced in many areas......From a "SHTF" scenario a small piece of land that is "defendable" with water and arable is a highly desirable commodity. You would be shocked at how much big money is going into just that description....of course their homes are much larger and their land is substantial. They'll make nice tax targets. Modesty is a premium in a SHTF scenario

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    2. YES exactly. Get small and if you're already small... get smaller and unnoticable.

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  14. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2013/2/8_Michael_Pento.html

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  15. Ki - I am a very modest guy who grew up on a small farm in the Applachian mtns where we raised a large portion of our food. Never needed gold or silver and mostly bought things like coffee, sugar, salt, flour, etc and raised the rest.

    Surprising at how little income you need for a family of 11 when you grow your own farm workers (had 5 brothers). Hehe

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    1. You will do just fine with that backround.......hehee......MOST will not...very shocking even back in the 30s in an agrarian country just HOW many Americans went hungry.....many starving....CAN YOU IMAGINE WHAT THIS has the potential to look like?

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  16. Snowing here in NJ. Looks like we will get around a foot. Boston is going to get hammered. From my experience in living through Sandy, my silver coins did me no good. Gas, food and generators were king. I couldn't have given away my silver for gas! Not saying it's not worth having physical silver / gold. I think the time frame of an "event" has a lot to do with it. My area was down without power for 7 to 10 days. My silver was literally worthless to me. But if we do have a major social, military, or financial meltdown, I do believe my silver will have value and help me. Just my thoughts. Good luck guys.

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    1. Silver is a currency/liquidity SHTF scenario which we have a fairly high probability of entering. Disaster SHTF scenarios if localized tend to be shorter term scenarios with virtually no impact on the fiat currency so yes silver is not meaningful with the dollar still intact. Pick your prepping disaster.....hurricane, blizzard, flood, drought, global war/nuclear, grid/EMP event, food price spikes, water table destruction....and on and on.....I can't and won't be able to prepare for them all. I'll look at the probabilities I can deal with and that's debt destruction with the K wave cycles. The rest is noise. Cost effective, simple preparations DOES make sense and I do make those preparations. Extreme prepping hopefully will not become necessary, because I have not built a bunker......gl

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    2. I would have gladly traded a few 5 gals of gas once I got things in order for a few silver eagles :)

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  17. Just sold my AAPL calls for a 60% gain. Not the double I was hoping for but a nice profit nonetheless. I likely sold too early but don't want to hold over the weekend after this recent massive run. Sitting completely in cash for now, itching to make a metals play but waiting for the price to tell me what to do.

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    1. CONGRATS.......Droke is still in cash from a trading position on Miners overall...except for PAL

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    2. PAL what a monster. Hope you were in it I know you were pointing it out :)

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    3. I had a decent pile......and will hold.

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    4. Good Job, always take a profit on options when there is some volatility because the decay is brutal.

      Media and Markets continues to paint a happy picture, but these Emergency Broadcast are dry runs for the multiple SHTF coming up both natural and man made.

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    5. they didn't make it easy for him either....i wonder how many of the trapped longs they'll let out.

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    6. You are right Kli they made it rough! I hightly doubt as you do that the downside is finished for AAPL. They've hit a decent about of the gap range here and it could continue up to 500 but it may not either :) They had to pin it today so we'll see what Monday brings...

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  18. Grabbed some PAL, maybe early but damn it looks nice.

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    1. probably early ...just depends on when you sell. If it moves the way I believe it will during the next two years then you may be wishing you bought a lot more......

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    2. I'll sell at eight bucks ;)

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  19. http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/its-all-fake/2013/02/09/

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  20. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=_yWi3TT8j2o#!

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    1. this is a little tedious and skips around but I encourage you to listen to AT LEAST The second half and end......

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  21. American Bases in Germany and the Gold Basis

    By Antal Fekete

    http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/antal-fekete/american-bases-germany-gold-basis

    in his post he says..

    One reason, perhaps the chief reason for this exercise is that the managers of the global fiat money system are preparing for the coming showdown, the final curtain on what some years ago I dubbed The Last Contango in Washington. In other words, policymakers are preparing for (or trying to fend off) permanent backwardation in the world’s gold futures markets that is threatening to rip apart the present shabby make-belief payments system of the world.

    ....Gold is constantly moving into strong hands that hold on to it and will not relinquish it even in the face of steeply rising prices. Eventually the gold supply dries up..

    ....Permanent backwardation means that confidence in fiat paper currency and government promises to pay has evaporated. After all, considering their origin, irredeemable bank notes are nothing but dishonored promises to pay gold. Once confidence is shattered, all the king’s horses and all the king’s men cannot put Humpty Dumpty together again...

    ....Physical gold. The beast must be fed. Paper gold will not do ..



    ...The vanishing of the gold basis is all the more curious since it has been taking place against the background of a steady advance in the gold price. Textbook economics teaches that an advance in price always and everywhere calls out new supplies. However, textbook economics is helpless when it comes to gold. For gold the exact opposite is true: an advance in price makes supply contract; and a very large advance may make supply disappear altogether. The reason for this paradox is that gold is a monetary metal. All the bad-mouthing of gold by economists in the pay of governments won’t change that fact. By now the decay has gone so far that the gold basis is practically zero, with occasional dips into negative territory.

    ..

    paladin

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    1. yes this is going to be the game going forwrd...

      also see new video on Reed in original post

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  22. http://www.globalresearch.ca/targeted-killings-the-white-paper-allows-the-government-to-kill-a-us-citizen-who-is-not-on-the-battlefield/5322433

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  23. Good comments all around on this post. Just to be clear, I'm not in any way opposed to owning bullion, I just have no means to properly store it. If I could, I would put 25% my wealth in physical gold/silver right away.

    I do have a family member I'd trust with my life, and I'll be visiting them at the end of the month. I will bring up the topic and see if I can convince them to store the physical for me, because they have the means to do so. I'd feel much better about that than putting it in a bank safety deposit box or in my own home. But it's a big responsibility, we'll see how that goes.

    As for my other equity plays, as Doctrader pointed out, that comes with a really long-term (20-30 years) outlook. Approaching my mid-30s, I think I can afford it. Thru hard work and discipline, I've managed to stash away a sizable nest egg which probably puts me in the top 1% of not only my age group, but quite possibly the entire population. I'd hate for all that to vanish if the SHTF. I plan on working for another 20 or so years, and retire in my mid 50s. We'll see how that pans out.

    BTW, here's on interesting article:

    http://www.newstimeafrica.com/archives/30714

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    1. Youthful Exuberance, heheheee.... I hope all goes according to your plan for your sake and everyone else's!

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  24. Good luck to you Bud.....two front pockets of 1 oz gold coins equal about a half a milion dollars. I don't think that is too hard to hide in a small apartment.

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  25. Obamacare - a Detailed Critique

    http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthread.php/24637-Obamacare-a-Detailed-Critique


    The ACA requires use of MODIFIED ADJUSTED GROSS INCOME (MAGI) instead of Adjusted Gross Income for all determinations made by an Exchange including eligibility for Medicaid except in certain cases. So, in this lesson, we’ll refer to annual income as MAGI.

    http://www.safetyweb.org/fpl.php


    so we all shall see where this goes..

    one thing I found in a sub link.

    PEACE OF MIND] Members of Congress will be required to get their health insurance coverage from the same exchanges as everyone else. Their coverage will be the same as consumers and small businesses, which will help ensure that the exchange works as a good place to find quality affordable coverage with good benefits and protections for everyone.


    we can only hope....paladin

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  26. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  27. King World News Responds To Attack On Its Internet Site

    Powerful entities do not want our global audience to have access to the material that King World News provides. Each time KWN releases an interview from certain key sources, our internet site is attacked. This is the war that King World News has been fighting behind the scenes on the Internet.

    At this time I have decided to break my silence on this subject because of concerns that the latest events could be part of a much broader effort to suppress content on the Internet. The Internet must remain a place for free speech and free inquiry, let's hope it stays that way.

    KWN is protected by the top company in the world in this area and they now have us online with no malware and no problems. If you have been to the KWN Internet site in the past 48 hours, please erase the cookies and cache in your Internet browser and start fresh.

    We have two incredible interviews with Eric Sprott and Art Cashin on King World News this weekend.

    From all of us at King World News we would like to thank all of the readers and listeners for their patience, and the many sites around the world that reached out to assist KWN. With your help we fight on.

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  28. when I stopped my blog a little over a in 2011 I was being attacked with various means.....after I came back on few if any disruptions.....I look for it to start again which is why I try to tone down the political/anti fed talk.....i did say i "try"

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  29. There have been a few times when I have gone onto the Alex Jones's website, a screen would pop up claiming that a virus was downloaded onto my computer. But when I checked my computer with anti-viral software, no virus was found. I have wondered if that was some type of scare tactic to avoid his site.

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