Sunday, March 31, 2013

HOW LONG?

Many of the most astute followers of the current monetary/financial crisis are asking the same question. How long? They are in agreement the system will need to experience a Cypriot-like shock but they cannot determine the timing. Terminally damaged but still maintaining the illusion of health makes many Westerners believe they will be able to see the warning signs of the Tsunami before it hits. Unfortunately for the West if
Too Late
the Quake that caused the Tsunami was so far away, that the tremor was not perceptible then no warning may be given short of seeing a rapidly receding tide minutes before the 40 foot wall of water comes on shore. Before the metaphors become mixed lets just look at what happened during the last three weeks. A clear, unambiguous message should have been received. Deposits sitting in banks are not safe. Once thought to be protected by law and CERTAINLY protected by the Central Bankers to protect the illusion that the banking industry was the ultimate safe haven for your money (not gold)  in a ZIRP environment changed suddenly three weeks ago. 

Numerous forces are in play at this time and a battle for global supremacy is in play. I have mentioned here several times over the years that the East is on the other side of the Gold and Silver trade as they prepare to be in position as the shift away from a dollar reserve currency world plays out. There is just no way the East allows the USD to maintain its parasitic stranglehold on the rest of the World. Right now we have managed to keep the USD tacitly as the World's reserve currency because we have been not only printing here to support our bond market but we have been sending USD by the TRILLIONS to overseas Central banks to prop up their debt and their reserves. That's correct...your very own Fed is sending your currency backed by YOU to such entities as Somalia, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, all of Europe.........and on and on. You may think NOOOOO. That's not legal. Think again. Trillions have been rolled overseas to maintain the entire debt equation and illusion that the 1.5 Quadrillion derivative backed debt hole is sustainable.

Time has run out and the game is over. The 120 year Supercycle/ Kondratieff Winter is now coming into its final deflationary wave as evidenced by the VERY PUBLIC AND VERY ADVERTISED Cypriot debacle. That was your signal if you were one of those waiting for an obvious signal. The fuse is lit and its undeniable so don't ask me IF but ask WHEN. That is not known, but most likely we are into a weeks or months countdown. Pay attention to which countries are next and how long before they begin to roll them out. IF they take out Slovenia and Malta as they have already advertised then you can still count your time in weeks at least maybe months. That means they are still tweaking the takedown and you have a little time. Just be aware, when they pull the chord there will be very little time to access your accounts. Watch closely for more stringent capital controls being instituted in larger Euro Countries. This will signal a more rapidly approaching breakdown indicating you may only have days in the other Western countries. 

The East has already begun their alternative to the USD and is fully prepared to implement a reserve status system. If they fully implement this system  then upon that announcement it is most likely too late for you to move on your accounts. Game over check mate. Of course we can experience some time of "major event" .....created or natural that will provide and overnite shock and that will have no warning given. For now live the illusion you can divine a "warning" and get out. My bet is we don't get it. gl


117 comments:

  1. Answer to Sister's question for the last thread:

    You know, yesterday I actually wrote about our conversation but erased it since I was worried I gave too much detail, and I want to protect his anonymity.

    So here is a more generic version. He is older than me and he has been my accountant since I started my practice (20+ years). I got him by invite only, an older attending referred me to him.
    He is a realist and he sees the changes going on in the world. He knows it will end one day, but has no idea when.
    His main point is what do you do with all that money should you withdraw all your retirement money--you have to put it somewhere.
    Well, when we talked about Cyprus, he was not suprised, but doesn't know if or when something similar could happen here. He has no problem with my refusal to fund my retirement further. He was not entirely happy that my wife & I cashed out her small retirement account (about 25K). He just feels that paying that penalty is a shame. He already knew that I have been buying the 90% silver coins and said "It is good that you started that already". He has warmed up to gold, but only the coins--no bars. He said keep more cash at home. The tough thing for my wife & I is really how much do you want to keep at home? Do you really want 10's or 100's of thousands of dollars/valuables at home?? So, it is an ongoing discussion.
    He did ask me--"Do you know anything about this internet currency?" I responded "Bitcoins?" He is interested in it and suggested I study Bitcoins.

    So my wife & I went out for breakfast after church this morning. Decisions, decisions, decisions. It is so much easier to just pretend everything will be fine. I am hoping we have a bit more time, but Kli's post is ominous today.

    Happy Easter everyone!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. BitchCoin is still another musical chairs virtual currency, you can't eat it if the SHTF. If you don't want to keep that much cash or think it will get trashed, convert some of it into something useful like paying down debt, some agricultural land (maybe too late), some prepping supplies for the home or yourself.

      Get your thinking out of the virtual before the SHTF. When it does it is too late.

      Delete
    2. thanks red.....reminder taken

      Delete
  2. kil you said..

    Game over check mate. Of course we can experience some time of "major event" .....created or natural that will provide and overnite shock and that will have no warning given. For now live the illusion you can divine a "warning" and get out. My bet is we don't get it. gl

    Cyprus....is the warning.

    you do not see it yet

    paladin

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I agree.....to ME it is telling you the fuse is lit.....but telling you when they pull the Cyprus (or worse) here may be days weeks or months. I have sources that have indicated the DHS are positioning Semi-trucks loaded with ammo/armored vehicles/ across the U.S. now......this is a very close DHS source. It may be a tactic to just instill fear/control or it may be real AND positioning for the implosion

      Delete
  3. PS.....I will pick up my 2nd buy of a monster box of silver eagles...

    I do not care of the cost


    all I care is to reduce my bank holding

    paladin

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  4. BitCon: Don't

    http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=219284

    Karl Denninger did a wright up on this

    ReplyDelete
  5. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-31/cyprus-presidents-family-transferred-tens-millions-london-days-deposit-haircuts#comment-3393947

    ReplyDelete
  6. Bitcoin is a hackers dream. You'd be better off burying a stack of $100 bills in a public park.


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This is the same problem with fiat/credit cards//// its all digital and will become a VERY destabilizing force withing the monetary/banking system. Tangible/real money will become paramount to a system that comes under attack

      Delete
  7. I share a lot of the same concerns mentioned by Doctrader. If I take the money out, am I prepared to store so much in valuables in the house? This deserves some serious consideration. Furthermore, what happens if I need to re-introduce money back into the system? Say, I need to make a $10K or $20K deposit at some point in the future, having withdrawn it all prior. Won't the bank/IRS wonder where that money has come from? In that case, I have to maintain perfect paper-trails to make sure there's no trouble. So, there are some challenges here to think about also.

    As for retirement accounts, I calculated my hit (25% tax + 10% early withdrawal penalty) and this 35% will amount to low six-figures. I simply refuse to give away that much of my money, even though the other side of that argument is, it's better to get something back than nothing. But for now, the retirement accounts will remain.

    Once I figure out what to do with all the cash, I will probably close all but one brokerage account.

    So, I will not entirely exit the system, but still end up better than most of the sheeple, I think. This way, if we muddle along for years, but the overall system stays intact in some form, it'll be a good hedge to leave something in it.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Your concerns are what most people are wrestling with. Purists would say "are you kidding, they've not only TOLD you what they have planned but they've implemented it" "What more do you need to have happen??" I hear those words inside my echo chamber and wonder just how anyone believes they are going to have warning when it comes down. Like I have said before...we are arguing about the wrong question when it comes to trading or investing in miners.......our real discussion should be why are we in this casino AT ALL. "if you are in a poker game and your looking around your table and decide who the sucker is then its probably you....." That is the way I feel bud.

      Delete
    2. ie.......I feel like I am probably the sucker bud....in the end I think they fleece me.

      Delete
    3. The way I look at it, there's a much smaller chance of losing your cash stored in your home to fire or burglary than it is to the government and banks while having money in the bank.

      What are the odds of a fire that burns your entire house down or a burglary, 0.05%

      Now what are the odds of the money in the bank being confiscated by the government or banks, 100%.

      Case closed.

      Delete
    4. Also, the income tax you would pay on early withdrawals is the same income tax that you'd pay later on, albeit at a higher rate although who knows if that's true. The only real cost is the 10% early withdrawal penalty and if you took all of the money and bought silver, you'd easily recoup the 10% loss. A move from $28 to $31 would take care of that.

      Delete
  8. AsI think about this it seems if keeping most of my money in an IRA is preferable, as I too do not want to pay the large penalty. If the whole system goes kaput then the convexity of gold and silver is big and so you don't need a large amount. If the system holds together then miner should be big winner.

    ReplyDelete
  9. Thanks for answering Doc. Peter Cooper now saying Cyprus=Credit Anstalt in 1931 and David Stockman in the NYTimes is shocking as well: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/31/opinion/sunday/sundown-in-america.html?pagewanted=1&_r=3&ref=opinion& It's amazing that NYT published this.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Many in MSM are running scared...they're receiving increasing pressure from their producers and editors to maintain the charade and its giving them a since of deja vu 2008.......you're looking at million dollar incomes from even the "average" reporters on many of these networks not to mention 22 million dollar salaries of big anchors like Brian Williams.....Making a million or two/year in NYC with their lifestyles is NOT a lot of money and there is an implicit threat of job loss if you don't "play along".....but if the system is "going of a cliff" then what good will the salary be if there is NO job left.....also many of these once great bastions of media are failing badly with the advent of news on the net.

      Delete
    2. Wow sister. I'm also shocked that the New York Times published that. That's an incredibly well written piece. Thanks for sharing.

      http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/31/opinion/sunday/sundown-in-america.html?pagewanted=1&_r=3&ref=opinion&

      I urge everyone here to read the whole thing.

      Delete
  10. Thanks for the Bitcoin comments. I watched a couple Youtube videos. My goal has been to lessen my paper exposure, so Bitcoins doesn't appear to help with that.

    Read the NYTimes article. You wonder if this is their way of warning the population. Then they can point to it and say, "see, we DID warn you".

    The PM's seems the best way to go for me. I am wondering if we still might see 1550 for gold. But, there may be a disconnect between the paper price, and then actually going to the coin store to buy.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Look at PAL...wondering if it's time to sell as they are selling their assets. Volatitily of gold quite interesting today...GLD actually up.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. converted my PAL into other miners just now

      Delete
  12. Since none of us own a crystal ball, I don't think you can be assured safety in any one asset class...not even PMs (which I've been hoarding). I believe in the below diversified portfolio which I'm getting very close to achieving:

    20% PMs (50% gold; 50% silver; all physical)
    20% Stocks & Bonds (mainly 401K, a few hedges built in)
    20% Real Estate
    40% Cash (Mix of buried cash, local bank & invesment bank...with some in foreign currency)

    The portfolio is somewhat protected in the event of inflation or deflation, collapse or prosperity. Will reduce cash over time if/as opportunities arise. If anyone has any thoughts or feedback, I'd appreciate it, as would other readers.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A few percent into food, water, ammo, solar and toilet paper doesn't hurt.

      Delete
    2. I've come to the conclusion that 50% of the readers here believe you are not serious red........oh well

      Delete
    3. I feel bad for them....... BUT they were warned!

      BTW jettisoned PAL @ 1.75 Thanks I would have missed that!

      Delete
  13. Still killing it on Gold Binaries. Helps me fulfill my trading itch with little damage :) This narrow range has been pretty easy to play luckily. Silver not so much though now with the recent volatility, staying away from that until a range appears again. But gold is still stable.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. good to hear from ya Hubz keep me informed

      Delete
  14. Thanks Kli...sold for 1.77, close to the top!

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  15. http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/1_This_Will_Signal_The_Final_Collapse_%26_End_Game_Has_Started.html

    ReplyDelete
  16. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-31/thanks-world-reserve-currency-no-thanks-australia-and-china-enable-direct-currency-c

    this is a process and it tells you everything

    ReplyDelete
  17. Looks like Bitcoin has already been hacked. That was fast.

    "Soon after Karpeles took over, Mt. Gox suffered a massive attack. A hacker gained control of McCaleb’s administrator account, the sizable number of Bitcoins therein, as well as the entire user database, and attempted to sell off more than $7 million worth of Bitcoins, driving the price nearly to zero. Karpeles panicked and shut the exchange down."


    http://www.theverge.com/2013/4/1/4154500/mt-gox-barons-of-bitcoin

    ReplyDelete
  18. Giant Ponzi scheme shut down in North Carolina:

    ZeekRewards scam leaves N.C. town millions poorer

    http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/03/30/authorities-600m-scheme-incubated-nc-town/2037975/

    ReplyDelete
  19. Kli & Red,

    Sorry I can't reply directly to your comments.

    I grew up in Beirut during the 15-year civil war in Lebanon. I understand the reality of living without power, food, water, and heat, all while being shot at on a daily basis. I was a child, but it still haunts me...I've witnessed things no kid ever should.

    You guys have opened my eyes to the potential for a collapse here and what it would mean for daily life. For that I'm eternally grateful. I've spent thousands of dollars over the past few years on self-defense, long shelf-life food sources, non-electric heating/cooking system, candles, batteries, solar equipment, water storage etc. The one thing I'm still missing is a water purification system...and perhaps a small farm in the mountains. The farm is a large, illiquid investment but I'm still toying with the idea.

    Trust me, I believe you and I understand. Unfortunately, very few people I know do...VERY few.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. not only are they not aware but they've been conditioned to respond with anger when you discuss it.......no hope

      Delete
  20. I believe this to be so and have mentioned this several times over the past few months...I saw it on Bernankes face and body language last week

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/1_Sinclair_-_Something_Has_Western_Central_Banks_Terrified.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. KLI: I also noticed something different about Benrnankes body language. He seemed so confident in '08 & '09. Something is really bothering him right now.

      Delete
  21. The tip of the iceberg:

    Judge Rules Stockton, Calif., to Enter Bankruptcy

    AP A judge accepted the California city of Stockton's bankruptcy application on Monday, making it the most populous city in the nation to enter bankruptcy.

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  22. Also reported today that Mexican drug cartels sending their own people into the U.S., including the mountains of N.C. We're just being hit from all sides...interesting that the purported richest man in the world is Mexican. It sure pays to be evil.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Gold wants to take off soooo badly. Sigh.

    ReplyDelete
  24. So thats the game! Well we knew it would end at some point. Jim Sinclair is saying the same thing,time has run out. Just a few words from me then. First I would like to thank Kliguy for all the time you have put in this blog, I found you on the SKF message board in 2008 and came over here not long after. I have learned alot and have made all the preps for my family I can. We are in good shape. I don't fear what is here but I am sad for my kids one is two years old the other is three months for them I feel sad, so inocent and pure of all of this. If you ever get up to Iowa or Nebraska I would like to meet you kli. So with that I"ll keep reading the blog as long as you do it. Other than that keep preping have food, water, meds if you need them, cash, gold silver, remember family and friends and good luck and blessings to each!

    ReplyDelete
  25. Stockton, L.A. basically the entire State and the State are all broke Ya drive around..each city has these huge monolithic city halls and fire stations that look like mansions. staffed by overpaid workers that could not cut it in the private sector...with some exclusions. Each corner a traffic camera, freakin coppers all over the place with a radar gun desperately trying to fund their own retirement. It is sick and delusional. Meanwhile the seals are dying off....probably Fucuon radiation. Seriously I think the next shoe could be wide spread radiation problems along the west coast...Pretty depressing really. However, I have lived a good life...so what will be will be. Maybe gold or guns will not save us from ourselves. Until then drink good beer and eat well.

    Back to the bunker.



    ReplyDelete
  26. Thanks to all of you for supporting this forum with your comments and wisdom.......I know it helps me to get a sense of whats transpiring.......and Matt I do get to Iowa in the summer months.....so hope to meet you

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you Kli, this blog rocks!

      Delete
  27. I pulled what I had out of Nadex today and all my other brokerage accounts are empty at this point. I am realizing it's no longer time to be cute about this and the situation has gotten serious. I'll continue to hope they can hold this together but the cynic in me knows that is highly unlikely. The time for me to be cute with trading is over. I still have a bit of prep work I'd like to do mainly from a water standpoint. What have you all done from that perspective? It's time to focus on that for myself.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Berkey Water Filter Systems..... Royal Berkey works great use it everyday, ever since Sandy they have jacked the Chlorine levels off the charts.

      http://www.berkeyfilters.com/berkey-water-filters/systems/?gclid=CMLsjLHwq7YCFVKf4AodyzoA2A

      I have two rain barrels + my 25k gallon pool, so there's enough for some time if the faucet stops working I hope....

      Keep a few pool shocks on hand to kill all organic's in rain barrels if need and run through the Berkey

      Delete
  28. Well, everyone seems to be a bit panicky, and am I now debating if I should accelerate some of my plans to liquidate my taxable accounts. Maybe leave enough to keep them open, but transfer all the rest to the local credit union, and then figure out the next steps?

    I hope this is not the beginning of something big. Even though I feel like I'm as prepared as I can be, especially compared to the millions of mindless drone sheeple out there, it's still scary to think about.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. None of us knows the timing nor the end game......but we know it doesn't resolve like this.......one way or another we're gonna have to pay the piper

      Delete
    2. Hey Kli If you get up to my neck of the woods shoot me an email at duncanspoultry@gmail.com I would like to meet up if you if I can.
      Thanks again
      Matt

      Delete
  29. Few comments:

    Phil Davis feels the market has come too far/too fast. He feels the upcoming earning season may not be good, and the market may start selling off later this week and into next week.

    Keystone also feels the market is topping (they have been saying this for awhile though). So, possible selloff coming.
    Keystone also wrote that support for gold is 1480-1550 and that gold will still trade overall sideways (1550-1700) rest of this year.

    My accountant called yesterday with my numbers but I was too busy to speak with him. Hopefully I can call him today & "face the music".

    Lastly: Kli, thanks for keeping your blog going.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Triple top breakout on stocks has them going to 1680 on PF chart...they have been pretty darn reliable..no pomo sales, only buys, junk credit is selling at cheapest yields ever....Bernanke has reinflated bubble...

      Market is locked down, black swan only thing that might take it down...picked up some DCTH the other day for move north...

      Delete
  30. geez, miners torched again. my concern, if majority of miners drop to a buck, them doubling and tripling from that level is a lose lose situation. sucks for sure. good luck everyone,

    ReplyDelete
  31. Let me guess..... this is a great buying opportunity. Just frustrated. I'm holding but not much more (probably a good sign for everyone else!). Good luck guys!!!!

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  32. Don't blame you guys a bit......I share your pain to a degree but like I've said my current paper losses on the miners pales to my concern for the system. this is a very contrived effort to paint PMs as a NON safe "go to " asset....and the fiat dollar as the go to currency and the US equity market as even better.....gl with euro collapsing and asia slowing down.......you guys have a right to run but you better have a better alternative......like I said if the brokerage acct/system survive, the trade will be amazing......IF

    ReplyDelete
  33. BTW while you are watching with amazement at groundhog day again.....I agree with Sinclair....I believe the "something" that he believes "they" see are the stats showing we are going over a cliff into deflation and they are desperate.....Cyprus was the canary in the coal mine for the whole ponzi....at least for those following the ponzi. It signifies an abrupt change in their "painting" policy and its for a reason. Keep your eye on what's important.....family and preparation

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  34. I know this is also redundant but I have spent the past two years accumulating bullion and I never anticipated the magnitude of the time they would consolidate the price.....this I am truly thankful for. I had a different strategy involved using the miners as leverage to convert to bullion but I have used my non brokerage fiat very effectively. NOW I have always maintained a significant fiat for the possibility that silver may see a break to 26.50 and here it comes.....I won't use it all of course in case the go below

    ReplyDelete
  35. What I am saying

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/2_Coming_Financial_Collapse_Moved_Up_A_Notch_Post_Cyprus.html

    ReplyDelete
  36. http://www.brotherjohnf.com/archives/149893

    ReplyDelete
  37. Food with extended shelf life is the area in which I need to focus on now. I was very early in stocking up on foods and most everything I acquired has been used already due to nearing expiration dates or thrown away. Any recommendations for what to do in this department would be appreciated. Thanks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Start here little expensive but good kibble and no thought process at least from my vantage point just plug in the number of adults and the desired time frame of supplies and Poof you get a reccomendation..... I try to keep things simple......

      http://www.foodinsurance.com/

      Kli has also mentioned wally world has buckets of freeze dried kibble don't know what it tastes like....

      Delete
    2. Wally world is handy but Kostco is better and very good....you can also order Kostco on line.

      Delete
  38. Doc and those interested.....just look at this SVM chart...hehhehehe hint hint look at volume days

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SVM&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p90140268581&a=242549376&listNum=1

    ReplyDelete
  39. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Kindle,

      I think you came to the wrong place. Go here instead:

      http://finance.yahoo.com/mb/AAPL/

      I think you'll find it more to your liking.

      Enjoy!

      Delete
    2. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

      Delete
    3. Contribute something of value troll

      Delete
    4. I did You can't take it. You think that You are the very brightest of the bright. You have been wrong on most everything you speak of. I am not a trol I was trading stocks when You were in diapers.

      Delete
  40. Also want to put a question out there because I hand't seen it written about. Maybe it's common sense & I'm just missing it...wouldn't be the first time.

    With respect to Cyprus, if an individual had 500k euros deposited in an account of which only 100k were protected but at the same time, the bank had lent them 500k euros for a home mortgage, do they lose all or a portion of the amount above 100k euros but remain on the hook for the 500k loan? My guess is yes because the banks always win but it's an interesting concept to think about. Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. YES they are still on the hook and a very important point to those over here with loans AND cash in accounts.....imagine if you purchase a large farm or home that is a bargain and have a "bridge loan" for what ever purpose while you are "closing" or "waiting" to move CASH from another account to settle and get wiped out of your "cash" with the loan on the new propery still intact.......during these times THIS is what "doing transactions" is driving me crazy with fear......Fiat CASH is now a RISK asset.....hehhehehe

      Delete
    2. I have had this very issue over here to deal with.....those transactions make me VERY nervous

      Delete
    3. Silver - I doubt accounts are segregated according loans made so there is probably no association with a particular loan (mortgage?) made.

      Delete
  41. Gold
    1,580.00
    -20.00
    -1.25%

    VOLATILITYS&P500 (^VIX)
    12.91 Down 0.67(4.93%) 11:54AM EDT

    Europe survived the Cyprus haircut without any riots. Now it's back to business as usual.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There were plenty of demonstrations in Cyprus.....but with a large percentage of ex pats and ZERO weapons and a very large number of mercenaries brought in by the banks there was NEVER going to be any real threat. It was a test case and there will be more. Eventually the sheep will run but for now they are still quietly going over the cliff......like all good sheep do.....baaa baaa

      Delete
  42. maybe I am a fool, but this rally the past few months feels like the "false" recovery may not be so fake. I live in PA, and within the past 2 months traffic seems to have increased quite a bit. a few people I know in construction have had steady overtime. stores do seem crowded as do restaurants. maybe it's the calm before the bottem falls out, but the only gloom I feel is when I look a my miners. totally frustrating trade to say the least. maybe I do live in a bubble, but it does seem people are spending like there isn't a care in the world.

    disclosure: months ago I decided to ride out the miner take down. I do wish I had pulled the cord. but hey, 20/20 hind site. my miner positions r so broken at this point, it's too late to bail at this point. hopefully they pull a Lazarus and rise from the dead. best of luck everyone.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I went to Olive Garden a few Sundays ago and the place was packed. Most of the meals there cost around $20 a plate. I was thinking to myself "what recession?"

      A friend of mine is also working lots of overtime at a biotech assembly job.

      The local Walmart parking lot is full.

      But here lies the big farce. The very second that Bernanke announces QE Infinity is ending, it'll all vanish in a hurry. This monopoly money recovery is not a real recovery with legs.

      As for the miners, follow Warren Buffet's advice, "I don't try to time stocks"
      Remember how quickly things happened back in '08? It will happen again. It's not a matter of IF.



      Delete
    2. the bubble is back, hot money is flowing into my area like it was 1999....

      junk yields are what I'm watching...if they turn down then we might have a down move but it feels pretty controlled...GS and team have the algos on buy and spx could end up at 1700 since they like round numbers...pf chart has 1685....

      Delete
  43. Kindle...ask the folks in Cyprus if Kli is wrong...Just sayin'

    Back to the bunker.

    ReplyDelete
  44. To paraphrase Hamlet - bubble, bubble toil and trouble. Subprime car loans (we can get you a loan regardless of your credit history) - see today's sales reports and search for subprime auto loans (it is huge) and student loans now exceeds CC loans (students who have trouble getting good paying jobs). IMO - the consumer credit situation is as bad or worse than 2007-8 - it is just not mortgages.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. credit score destruction over last 5 years enabled subprime to start again as they were running out of credit approved buyers...If you want some more details on subprime ABS paper just shout out...

      Just follow ALLY, which setup the tiered rates for govt. motors....sordid story there....

      Delete
  45. Of course this is a "real" recovery......buying 85 Billion/month with Fed printing is VERY natural and healthy......keep believing.......they like their sheep fat and dumb. The better to eat you....hehehe......I guess I'll just have to take what they give and the only thing I see worth taking is going to be a nice discount price on a big bullion buy.......WILL THEY GIVE IT?? is the only question....WILL THEY...I say NO...but I'm hoping

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  46. Your $20/plate sheep meals may look good but if you can read this is going to look GOOD compared to what is coming to our shore.....BTW I've known this guy for 25+ years and he WAS not a gold bug ....pure equities guy

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/4/2_West_Much_Closer_To_Collapse_As_Gold_War_Continues_To_Rage.html

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  47. Kindle Lachenman: KLI does have the disclaimer in the upper left

    "Always do your own due diligence...my commentary is just that....commentary."


    It's no secret, the mining sector has gotten trounced in the Wall Street Casino over the last 6 months. It's also no secret that KLI is in the mining trade for the long haul. This isn't a day trade, week trade or even month trade. This is a long term investment that may take years to come to fruition.

    Personally, I've stayed away from the miners. The disconnect between gold prices and miners bugs me a lot. Furthermore, many of the best mines are located in 3rd world hellholes that could go communist overnight. With that being said, I don't think KLI and others are making a mistake. It's just not my cup of tea (I prefer physical gold/silver more than anything right now).



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    1. That is a valid critique Jay and is certainly the way Red, Joe and others have advocated....I'll continue my trade my way and wish all the best.....Miners are paper and they can be crushed....they can also become the hottest sector in the market......for a good historical perspective go back and look at the late 70s and early 80s.......remember its paper and if you are in paper then you have to be prepared for this...gl

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    2. when the big boys rotate in it will be swift but right now things are even tough in the bio sector, lots of big pushes down on profitable companies like QCOR...

      sector rotation timing is something I would love to have a better handle on...

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  48. Jay, I see the same stuff as you all the new cars..Inlet explains this well. Costco full. Restaurants full. For the most part it is cheaper to go out and eat than prepare your own meals. Just go to the store and prepare a nice meal of any kind it will cost you 20 bucks a plate. So either there is a lot of cival servents that live it up. Those that have retired well and there are lots. those that are still squatting in homes that have extra money. I do not get or care. Another bankster bubble. If the spx was 500 points lower prolly things would not feel so good. Is all the qe worth it? If we end up Cyprus style I say not.

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    1. This is also an age related phenomenon....they have conditioned you to spend EVERY FOCHING dime you make......hehehhe....but the real truth is....THEY HAVE CONDITIONED EVERYONE UNDER 50 to spend every foching dime THEY CAN BORROW.....and then they just print MORE fiat because of our dollar reserve status. While we import our inflation to developing countries that cannot print and destroy (currently) the debtor Eurozone countries with devastating unemployment and austerity. THEY are NOT living it up at olive garden. THEY are falling off a cliff. But yes the world according to the under 40 crowd here is conditioned to look at history in terms of what happened yesterday. I DO NOT look forward to what this nation of sheep will have to experience but Nature IS a bitch when you violate it.....and brother have we violated it.....IN SPADES

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  49. A year ago I intended to buy a few acres in the country. Instead I decided to spend several months in/out of hospitals, had major surgery and a pace maker implanted. Due to system shock I ended up with type II diabetes. Now I watch the diet and walk at least 2-3 miles a day (Drs don't recommend too strenuous exercise given my heart condition). Diabetes pretty much under control now (diet and exercise). I am looking for those few acres in the country again where I can have a large garden. Properly cared for - half an acre garden will grow almost enough for 1 person each year.

    Build yourself a chicken shed and fence them in an acre or so area and you have meat and eggs. A few solar panels and a small diesel generator. If you want a bunker - I keep thinking a couple of large shipping containers like you see on trains or being pulled by large trucks - buried in a hillside would make a heck of a bunker.... You get the idea.

    For health reasons I am at least a year behind schedule. I feel good now an am looking for land again in western end of SC.

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    1. please use non GMO seed and food and NO corn syrup sweetner drinks and NO apartame......gl to you inlet

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  50. True Kli, My daughter in law and family LOOK rich. New cars, out all the time. They do not have a dime to spare...

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    1. Santelli just on and is laughing at the Soc GEn Gold slam....he repeated that gold has been "securitized" and implied beware of Soc Gen's dis on gold.....he knows the truth....Full court press today on PMs....hehehehehee.....CAN THEY DO IT???? I violated my patience on my bullion buy just now....WAY too much pessimism and Way too much negativity on CNBS just now on PMs ......so picked up some New Eagles.....thanks cabal......you can have my funny money for gold

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  51. Prolly good timing.

    I bet some Cyprus folks wish they had gold.

    The PM message todays is do not EVEN BEGIN TO THINK that gold is a safe haven.

    Too funny.

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  52. Gold
    1,575.20
    -24.80
    -1.55%

    Revenge of the shorts.

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  53. Kli - no processed/canned veggies. Peas, corn, bagels are no no carbs. so vegs are fresh or frozen. Proteins good, some carbs as long as I keep them moderate (whole wheat bread or a medium sized potato). Gave all my canned/processed/high sugar/high carbs food to a food bank last summer - so I got to rebuild my emergency food supplies oriented differently given my health (like I said getting that under control - 7 day and 14 day blood sugar averages under 100 now and 30 day average just over 100. A1C now under 5.7. But I guess getting a diabetes label is like being an alcoholic (just because you quit drinking doesn't mean you are no longer an alcoholic according to reformed alcoholics I have met).

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  54. Thought I would look at the gold and silver miner's charts just now......holy chit....no wonder you guys are pissed........Sorry but not shaking this leaf

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    1. Should actually be buying more

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    2. fully loaded on miners......

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    3. I know. Me as well. People always want to buy when the price is high but now is really the time to be buying...assuming one has the available funds to do so. I fortunately or unfortunately am going to take whatever I have left that is not invested and buy food stuffs, potassium iodide, a water filtration system, etc etc.

      As I want to be diversified, I'm also going to stock up on barterable items such as Cigarettes, Alcohol, Tampons, Condoms, Matches/Lighters, Toilet Paper, other toiletries, Deodorant, Razors, OTC Medicines, Shampoo, Soap, etc etc.

      It's a small investment to cover these bases but these items can prove valuable during a total economic/societal breakdown.

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  55. Joe's e mail today on miners

    My prediction on central bankers plan so far is correct, as I mentioned before KEEP your eye on prices for HUI index, GDX, and GDXJ.

    $13 for GDXJ, $30 a share for GDX and HUI some where between 250 and low 300 makes the miners ACTUAL BOTTOM and if they take it there then the best miner to have is MUX. I reitrate again, stay away from all other miners except MUX and it's o.k. to have PPP and EXK.
    MUX due to it's current price gives better risk/reward return even in the worst case scenario of it dropping to 1.50. The worst case scenario for MUX is 1.50, good chance that might not even get that low. At the right moment I will bring in lots of fire power in MUX to trap the shorts.

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  56. The Dow and S&P 500 both end the trading day at record highs.

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  57. on a positive note, the people that r selling the miners have got to be running out.

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  58. Kli, thanks for sharing that Stephen Leeb article. As you indicate, this guy is pretty mainstream, so to speak, and from what I gather, has a fairly decent batting average. His prediction that gold will be headed much higher and that the West is much closer to collapse needs to be taken seriously.

    Again, no one can accurately say when that is exactly, but something is brewing out there. I've said it before, and as other have chimed in today, I see a good deal of "prosperity" around me also, but it'll be interesting to see how long it lasts.

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    1. at the risk of being redundant ......you are seeing an ILLUSION Bud......even MORT ZUCKERMAN on bloomberg this am called it the Grand Illusion....hehehehe sound familiar

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    2. Leeb is a very "numbers" oriented guy and uses mathematical models often in his work. Over the years Leeb has made some excellent calls.

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  59. http://www.subprimenews.com/spn/news/story.html?id=2824

    you want to sell cars, you need all the subprime people in the house....

    In other findings from the fourth quarter report:

    —Automotive loans for new vehicles with terms from 73 to 84 months increased by 19.4 percent over Q4 2011

    —New lease share of new financing increased to 24.79 percent, up from 10.45 percent in Q4 2011

    —The total subprime market for all new vehicle financing increased by 9.7 percent to 24.77 percent, up from 22.59 percent in Q4 2011

    —The total subprime market for all used vehicle financing increased by 3.4 percent to 55.4 percent, up from 53.58 percent in Q4 2011

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  60. What about silver? Does Joe say stay away from slw, svm, as well? HUI 250-300 is really low. Don't have MUX yet, will hope to get some under 2.50...also own hl, anv, gpl, pzg, and ssri. Argh.

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    1. Sista Joe is playing Joe's game.....I cannot tell you what that game fully entails because I am not privy to it. I only pasted his email to me.

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  61. Best to you Inlet, didn't know you had been through all of that. I keep thinking of my grandparents who survived the Great Depression...they had no mortgage, had chickens in the coop and vegetable gardens. Both of my grandfathers were lucky enough to have a job...they mostly dealt in cash after the banks collapsed (!) and of course when I knew them growing up hardly ever went out to eat (except maybe at a drugstore counter), no driving foreign cars or air conditioning. So it was indeed a different era. They seemed to me to be happy and have a good life...just so much simpler and much slower life than what we are used to.

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  62. Ok, thanks Kli, took note. Many people just lease cars, do not buy them anymore. Car payment for 6-7 yrs. or always...

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  63. Tkx sister. 2012 was a challenging year. There were periods when the end was near or so it seemed. It took the Drs a while to figure out my second problem when surgery helped but failed to resolve all issues. 2 1/2 months after surgery I got out of the hospital the final time. It took Aug-Oct to get back to a reasonable state of strength and stamina after that.

    I guess 2012 gave me a new perspective on this whole mess that may "pop" at any time. It can't be worse than 2012.

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